Console launches absolutely require high levels of stock to backup the marketing and launch hype. You can only launch once with that kind of mindshare, with severe supply issues they won't capitalize on the hype.
Correct, Console launches live with the hype. If they only sell half or even lower than that on launch, the voices will get louder that the system(s) are commercial failures. if they want to deflect that narrative with the Pandemic, many will ask why the fuck they even launched a product that is designed to be used for 10 years in the one year with the biggest pandemic the world has ever seen.
Only a launch after Summer 2021 makes sense. be the product that people remember buying AFTER the horrible Pandemic was over, a sign of rebirth, a new beginning and all that psychological stuff.
What happens when both get a slow start and previously next-gen-only third-party titles have to scramble up old-gen support because they can't survive with next-gen (+pc and switch) sales alone due to low numbers?
My prediction if they really release this year:
- few sales and comparisons to "the WiiU of xxx"
- a very good chance that the generation will be cut massively short
- 30% chance of a "refresh" after 3 years
- 70% chance of a completely new console generation after 3 to 4 years to get the momentum back
- possibly at the same time the Switch2 would release.