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Do you still think a Biden collapse is inevitable?
- Thread starter Deleted member 278
- Start date
these threads always have like 17 people going "people on Era dont seem to get that Bidens really popular outside of the internet bubble"
they always say the same fucking thing and i dont really understand why
they always say the same fucking thing and i dont really understand why
The 2nd primary is South Carolina. Iowa is the first caucus, then new hampahire is the first primary, then Nevada caucus and then SC Primary. Then it's march 3rd.
Iowa has Pete ahead right now right? I'm guessing New Hampshire goes Sanders? I have zero clue on Nevada, but it's a caucus, and I know those tend to favor the more 'energized' base.
I thnk that polls are underestimating the other candidates due to how new voters, independent voters and voters who have been disaffected play into the race.
Despite Biden being a terrible politician and person in general, its clear however that the intangible nostalgia for Obama administration among older people is strong in certain areas despite having absolutely no foundation in someone running for President, especially for Biden who has pretty much one of the worst democratic records when you look at the issues on a broad spectrum. I blame the media for attempting to cover for him and artificially prop up narratives as well in how critically those people see politicians who will likely lose the general election.
Due to the "only the most right wing of democrats who take corporate money and are corrupt can win" ad nauseum talk from the corporate media and democratic party establishment, its a tough call.
Despite Biden being a terrible politician and person in general, its clear however that the intangible nostalgia for Obama administration among older people is strong in certain areas despite having absolutely no foundation in someone running for President, especially for Biden who has pretty much one of the worst democratic records when you look at the issues on a broad spectrum. I blame the media for attempting to cover for him and artificially prop up narratives as well in how critically those people see politicians who will likely lose the general election.
Due to the "only the most right wing of democrats who take corporate money and are corrupt can win" ad nauseum talk from the corporate media and democratic party establishment, its a tough call.
It's really irritating, isn't it?
Like they're saying some galaxy brain shit and we're just too stupid to understand.
"PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF ERA AND TWITTER BLAH BLAH BLAH"
It's repeated because it's completely true. The disparity between how he is perceived here vs the electorate at large is significant and needs to be pointed out in discussions regarding Biden's performance.
Nah. I think of the candidates running he's the likeliest to win the nomination. People keep treating it like an inevitability that he'll blow it and it has yet to happen. His general election numbers are still great against Trump.
Of course, that can all change. I'm very apprehensive about his chances against Trump, but I'm not about to suggest my hunch is worth more than the actual data.
Of course, that can all change. I'm very apprehensive about his chances against Trump, but I'm not about to suggest my hunch is worth more than the actual data.
Same way it's going to work out this time: badly.
I've been feeling this way for a while, but this is the first time I'm going to come out and say it: This is the Democratic party's version of the Republican party's 2012 primary. We've got one candidate selected by the establishment who simply does not fit the spirit of the time and a clown car of other candidates who are occasionally presented as challengers to the establishment nominee but never really overtake them.
if the electorate at large likes him so much, why are his donations so abysmal that hes had to go back into using Super PACs?
If hes so popular, how come the two favorites of the "bubble" have completely crushed him when it comes to donors? How has a random Indiana mayor completely outraised him? Surely, a guy that is so well known and well regarded would easily crush a socialist jew and an old lady social democrat from Mass
Maybe people don't feel especially motivated to send money to the front runner. Underdogs are in a good position to inspire donating.
There's plenty of potential explanations that don't involve literally all of the data being systemically wrong.
He's probably going to be the nominee. No one else is coming close to breaching his support on the African American vote and he'll do well in Nevada and South Carolina.
Let's make it through March 3rd. New Hampshire or South Carolina won't tell us that much.
Of course not.
Dude can have multiple gifs of him innapropriatly holding or kissing kids, Corn pop story, teling people to vote for Trump if they criticise Obamas deportation record and even have his eye bleed on stage and his numbers stay the same.
You guys are fucked
Dude can have multiple gifs of him innapropriatly holding or kissing kids, Corn pop story, teling people to vote for Trump if they criticise Obamas deportation record and even have his eye bleed on stage and his numbers stay the same.
You guys are fucked
Nevada is a caucus, Clinton won that I believe because someone on the ground
rallied many of the casino unions to vote for her.
Caucuses tend to go for the more energized base.
Well it's true.
Era is a small bubble.
Bidens going to do better than Warren in the Midwest in the general as much as like Warren and her stances. In a perfect world she will win the nomination and win the general election.
But we don't live in a perfect world and she will likely suffer in the general because of it.
My current fear is that the collapse will happen during the general election campaign
Save us Bernard
Save us Bernard
this makes no sense considering Clinton and Obama made a shit ton of money for the 2008 race despite Clinton being the favorite for a long while. If you say "oh that was a long time ago" then how about 2016, when Clinton was the clear favorite and she still made $28 million in donations during Q1, 8 more than Biden"s first quarter, nevermind his embarassing 15 millon that he got during the last quarter.
I would like to hear more potential explanations against data. The data shows that somehow a senator from Vermont and the CFPB lady are kicking his ass in donations. The data shows that hes burned so much cash that he had to go back to Super PACs like that isnt a complete embarassment.The data shows that Biden is polling around 4th place in Iowa and his campaign has had to beg people to ignore the first three races. These last 3 statements arent opinions, they are easily backed information.
And suggesting those things means he somehow isn't actually leading in overall support is not justified by any data whatsoever. You've picked something out of a large number of quantifiable metrics and are trying to suggest it's telling the real story.
He's going to win the nomination if his AA support holds, that's all there is to it.
Exactly and either Sanders or Warren could take all three. In that scenario Biden is beyond done. He is going to take damage from Iowa, NH, NV no matter what. This is why his traditional support network is shook.
Seeing him not understand/pick up on people laughing at him during the last debate was rough to watch.
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This has honestly been my biggest takeaway of the 2020 Democratic field. His time has passed and I don't think it's his next year.
Yup.
And if we focus on fundraising isn't Tom Steyer leading this thing? Lol.
Biden has the support of the minority vote so I would say he is still the odds on favorite at this point
I think he's not the number one choice for enough people to win the democratic nomination, especially since electability is one of two reasons people would vote for him (the other being more moderate). So I can see other people winning states early and that having a snowball effect.
This is a stupid post. There's no evidence at all that he's an establishment darling, which is how he has a slim lead, sub-50%, and a huge chunk of voters undecided.
Overall I'd agree but we saw some crazy things during the last Dem Primary such as Sanders winning by 5 in a state that he was projected to lose by 30.
That's not to say that polling is wrong overall, but I think a large part of Bidens lead is currently down to his association and spending, much like how Pete has been able to build a case for himself in a few key places and nowhere else. He's spending heavily with a negative burn rate, and has been struggling to get high value donors. Sure he opened the door to PACs but that alone isn't going to change his position. He's looking likely to lose the majority of upcoming contests and is in a poor financial position because people go 'oh Joe Biden = Obama' not because they're enthusiastic about Joe Biden himself.
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He wont collapse. The far left doesnt know how to make an argument that is persuasive to the general electorate, he's offering exactly what a larger audience wants, folks are equally enthusiastic about supporting him, IA and NH delegates are going to be split to nothing before he blows everyone out in SC, he hasnt been trying in those states to begin with and yet nobody has been able to put him away even with their lopsided demographic advantage.
What is likely to happen is that the far left will finally be forced to rally around a single, non-Biden choice once we're past the white liberal primary states. They're the only reason why multiple candidates are being taken seriously now. Before her current downturn, second choice surveys have shown Warren in particular having a small edge. If that holds true in the future, folks better hope Bernie has changed since 2016.
What is likely to happen is that the far left will finally be forced to rally around a single, non-Biden choice once we're past the white liberal primary states. They're the only reason why multiple candidates are being taken seriously now. Before her current downturn, second choice surveys have shown Warren in particular having a small edge. If that holds true in the future, folks better hope Bernie has changed since 2016.
The question and title are different, Biden could easily fail to be the party's nominee without losing any significant support. I don't expect any drop beyond the margin of error, he's boring but safe and that's what a sizable chunk of the party's supporters want. I suspect that the multitude of candidates will contribute to spoiling everyone else's chances at surpassing him
Because it's true, and this place doesn't even resemble the Dem primary electorate, let alone America as a whole.
The boomer churchladies who run the Dem primaries in many states are also very scared, and they think only someone like Biden can win, because everyone else will scare white moderates into voting for Trump. They think the folks who flipped in 2018 will flip back.
I wish someone like Bernie could win, but I think we're 12 years away from that being possible. We're going to need demographics that are more favorable, and millenials will have to start pushing 50 for them to start taking over.
its really funny when i say "people in Era keep saying this" and then i get multiple replies of people saying the exact same thing
thanks for proving my point!
thanks for proving my point!
User Banned (Permanent): Racist Commentary and Inflammatory Community Attacks Over Multiple Posts; Prior Bans for Hostility
"moderates" and old black folk in the south are going to fuck shit up again aren't they?