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Do you predict that Xbox will be viewed as the mind share leader in the console space by the end of

  • Yes

    Votes: 367 10.7%
  • No

    Votes: 2,289 67.0%
  • It'll be split between PlayStation and Xbox (similar to end of PS3/360 gen)

    Votes: 761 22.3%

  • Total voters
    3,417

Gay Bowser

Member
Oct 30, 2017
17,714
Each and every generation starts at zero
Honestly, it's debatable if this is true any more. I think today's consumers expect to keep their digital purchases from one system to the next; they're used to keeping their stuff when they upgrade their phones and iPads etc. I really don't think, say, Sony could really get away with a PS4-style library reset with the PS5. Way more people have digital purchases now and people feel like those should follow them. They'd like to keep playing their disc games too, of course, but people seem especially attuned to the idea that once purchases are tied to an account, that should be hardware agnostic and those purchases should follow you. And I think that will increase lock-in, console to console. People with a lot of stuff on their PlayStation account will be less likely to want to switch.

Of course, Microsoft's pitch would be that it's okay to let those purchases go, because maybe purchasing games isn't something you need to do any more. An inexpensive subscription with a zillion games would take some of the sting out of losing compatibility with your prior purchases.
 

Melchiah

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,190
Helsinki, Finland
If you buy Halo, you buy ALL of Halo. The back catalog, the IP, the licensing, etc. Games like Forza Horizon (to this day in the monthly top10 Xbox titles on NPD, despite
Game Pass) are ongoing services that continue to produce revenue year after year. They also release more frequently than, say, a Naighty Dog franchise. The Forza Tech is it's own engine, with elements being used elsewhere. (Guerilla does have Decima, but to my knowledge only Kojima has used it outside of GG?) So the technology is worth a lot. That's part of why Bethesda is worth the price, because you're also buying iDtech.

Looking at sales doesn't tell the value of any property or studio.

Someone else responded that Elder Scrolls
wont be out any time soon. True. But again, you're also buying Skyrim, etc. One of the best selling games of alll time. And they also have a successful ongoing MMO with 350k MAU buying currency, ESO + subs, and frequent expansions and DLC every couple months on the regular. Steady income (and growing thanks to Game Pass).

Will Sony first party continue to sell more and be highly rated? Probably. But that doesn't make the IP or studios more valuable. I'd again point to crazy talented and prolific Insomniac bought for $230 million as an example.

You don't seem to realize that a large factor for Insomniac's price was that Sony already owned most of the IPs they've worked on.

Sony is acquring familiar talent to develop the well-known IPs they already own. Whereas Microsoft is acquiring well-known IPs, since they're lacking them.


EDIT: You seem to have also missed the news that Sony is preparing to spend 18 billion on acquisitions. That nearly 2,5 times more than Bethesda cost, but apparently they wouldn't have had the money to buy them.
 
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KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,859
Yes, I think by the end of the gen MS will be positioned to be the market leader going forward, or at least very close. I don't foresee a hypothetical PS6 doing very well out of the gate. Kinda feeling like it'll play out similar to the PS3/360 gen in reverse, although idk if Sony will mess up quite as bad as 2013 MS.

Assuming they continue to pump billions of dollars into Xbox division every year and keep buying major developers and entire publishers (which I do kinda hate, BTW, but I don't see them slowing down any time soon), I don't think Sony will be able to compete at the same level. Plus Sony's strategy so far seems largely just to coast/stay the course, and I think it'll bite them in the ass eventually.

Playstation will continue to miss out on more and more major third party IP/devs as MS gobbles them up, and probably by 2023 onwards, MS will likely be releasing twice as many first party/exclusives as Sony every year.

I don't see how all of that could possibly have no effect. Consumers will start to notice more and more games skipping Playstation that they used to have access to.

Personally not a big fan of the industry trends towards consolidation and away from ownership, since I'm very frustrated with the state of the movie/TV industry and don't necessarily want gaming to emulate that, but eh... I'll always have old games and I'm set with my PC, PS5, and Switch to make sure I'll be able to play whatever I want this gen.

Of course this is all just wild speculation based on very limited information, and really who knows wtf will happen lol. I don't think anyone in 2013 would have predicted MS having more than twice as many first-party studios as Sony by 2021 lol.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
Honestly, it's debatable if this is true any more. I think today's consumers expect to keep their digital purchases from one system to the next; they're used to keeping their stuff when they upgrade their phones and iPads etc. I really don't think, say, Sony could really get away with a PS4-style library reset with the PS5. Way more people have digital purchases now and people feel like those should follow them. They'd like to keep playing their disc games too, of course, but people seem especially attuned to the idea that once purchases are tied to an account, that should be hardware agnostic and those purchases should follow you. And I think that will increase lock-in, console to console. People with a lot of stuff on their PlayStation account will be less likely to want to switch.

Of course, Microsoft's pitch would be that it's okay to let those purchases go, because maybe purchasing games isn't something you need to do any more. An inexpensive subscription with a zillion games would take some of the sting out of losing compatibility with your prior purchases.
How many people carried over their games from PS3 to PS4? How much progress have Nintendo made on that front? What will power new console sales is new games that you cannot access on last generation .And as always, there are going to be a myriad of reasons why some platforms will perform better than they did. Microsoft has done a lot, having a more performant console, having a cheap alternative, having a service that gets a lot of content for a low monthly fee.

They are trying to meet almost everyone who might want a console at some point and they notice that they need games to ensure that the product is complete, thus their investment in studios. It will come down to games and whether they have titles that are compelling enough to sway people onto their platform.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
You don't seem to realize that a large factor for Insomniac's price was that Sony already owned most of the IPs they've worked on.

Sony is acquring familiar talent to develop the well-known IPs they already own. Whereas Microsoft is acquiring well-known IPs, since they're lacking them.
Microsoft was never lacking in IP. They were lacking in internal teams to develop some of their IP. Getting some of the studios they have gotten has simply expanded that IP.
 

mute

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,118
As we have seen a lot can change in a generation's time but I'm still not expecting much different based on how things are going so far.
 

Broseph

Member
Mar 2, 2021
4,878
People are still living in a era bubble. The PS5 has the most mindshare I've seen of a new console since the Wii. All of their studios are working on multiple projects and will be dropping their games soon and they've already started paying partners to make exclusive AAA games and been moneyhatting AAA games.

And another big factor and one of the most underrated things Sony did in the PS4 era that has continued. They've been the primary marketers for GTA and COD. They already are the de facto FIFA console and they pay a lot to keep it that way
 

riotous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,347
Seattle
Consumers are fickle and people that think that one cannot go from a poor generation to a great generation maybe do not follow gaming. Nintendo went from a poor GameCube generation to a great Wii generation to a poor Wii U and then hit it off the park with the Switch.
Microsoft had a poor showing on the original console, a great Xbox 360, and good Xbox One generation.

Each and every generation starts at zero and it is often a good point to rectify some of the mistakes made in the prior generation. Microsoft has a powerful console on the top end, a weaker console on the lower end to lower the barrier for entry and starting in the next few months, a first party that will start churning out games. All they need is a quality product that appeals to consumers; mind share is something that is fluid.

Well I never said the bolded... you aren't really responding to what I've specifically said.

Sony has an insane amount of brand and market momentum; Microsoft has a lot of promise.. but even w/ Gamepass at the end of the gen they just continued to be stagnant as far as market share vs. Sony is concerned.

Yes they've acquired Bethesda since then, and their devs they acquired or created in the 2017-2019 timeframe will eventually have some decent output.. and that should change things. But the question is by how much; I don't think it's going to somehow cut into the 2x's share Sony has over them right now.
 

brokenswiftie

Prophet of Truth
Banned
May 30, 2018
2,921
You are in fact not reading that right. But the intial question was "Would Sony trade their properties for Microsoft's?" The point was that just those two entities are likely worth the whole of Sony's studios. They just bought Insomniac for 230 million or so. Housemarque was undisclosed but certainly less than that. The only one considerably more, likely, is Naughty Dog. So even if you generously average 200 million for their 20 studios or whatever, you're at 4 billion. Or about half of Bethesda.

So whether you want to trade IP and back catalogs or studios, Sony would absolutely do it on the balance sheet. Hypothetical
of course.
Insomniac was that cheap because most of their popular IPs are already owned by Sony
Same with housemarque and blue point

Bethesda and Minecraft are valued that high because of the IPs

I seriously doubt MS IPs on the whole are worth a lot more when PS IPs generate a lot more revenue other than maybe Minecraft
 
Jun 23, 2019
6,446
Well I never said the bolded... you aren't really responding to what I've specifically said.

Sony has an insane amount of brand and market momentum; Microsoft has a lot of promise.. but even w/ Gamepass at the end of the gen they just continued to be stagnant as far as market share vs. Sony is concerned.

Yes they've acquired Bethesda since then, and their devs they acquired or created in the 2017-2019 timeframe will eventually have some decent output.. and that should change things. But the question is by how much; I don't think it's going to somehow cut into the 2x's share Sony has over them right now.
Exactly. MS would have to pull off something like acquiring Take Two and Rockstar to cut into the mindshare.
 

iamandy

Member
Nov 6, 2017
3,300
Brasil
I think it's possible and I think it's fair. Microsoft is doing all the right moves while Sony is completely out of touch with their core base.

Sony's communication is piss poor and they've been taken really bad decisions. Xbox had a really meh first year but things are about to change very soon.

.
 
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gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
They lacked the IP to lure new customers into their ecosystem, who didn't care about Halo, Forza and Gears. That's the main reason for the Bethesda acquisition.
I do not fathom that there are people that actually believe this. Microsoft had Fable, Project Gotham Racing, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Crimson Skies, Rallisport Challenge, Midtown Madness etc. Microsoft's biggest problem was always outsourcing development and the studios they partnered with getting acquired as they sat.

Microsoft got studios because they needed someone to come in and develop content for Game Pass. Playground, Undead Labs did not own any property and The Initiative has been brought in to make a legacy title. Getting studios like Ninja Theory, InXile, Obsidian or Zenimax that owned IP was a bonus, and in the case of latter iconic IP. Had they not got Bethesda, they would have pushed for someone else. They would have possibly met the asking price for Warner Brothers Interactive Entertainment.

Well I never said the bolded... you aren't really responding to what I've specifically said.

Sony has an insane amount of brand and market momentum; Microsoft has a lot of promise.. but even w/ Gamepass at the end of the gen they just continued to be stagnant as far as market share vs. Sony is concerned.

Yes they've acquired Bethesda since then, and their devs they acquired or created in the 2017-2019 timeframe will eventually have some decent output.. and that should change things. But the question is by how much; I don't think it's going to somehow cut into the 2x's share Sony has over them right now.
What did people expect to happen last generation? Really?

When Game Pass started out, it was this small venture that went through the growing pains that all content related start ups go through. You have a period where you start getting content in, but it is not enough to entice people that they need the service and that growing phase is difficult because you are spending money and not getting much back. So the thought process has always been to invest as much as you need to stimulate demand and not more than what is needed.

To this end, you can see that they made studio acquisitions at a point where these studios were primed to get games for the next console. Getting more people into the Xbox One would have been great, but all the investments Microsoft was making were geared towards capitalizing on a new generation.

I also think that people are looking at these things in the wrong manner. Microsoft would love to sell as many consoles as Sony if not more, but is that currently feasible? On the face of it, it looks extremely difficult to imagine that this would come true. However, business is not done on absolutes. The aim for Microsoft is going to be to get more console sales than they got last generation, and to position Series S as a console that an be bought by people looking for a cheaper entry point, or people that want a secondary console. The Series X can be positioned as that console that gives the best performance, and then they have to lean towards their first party delivering.

As stated, Sony has been the consistent performer when it comes to console sales, but that does not mean that if someone else makes the right moves that they are unable to capture market share. History shows us that this is something that happens quite regularly. Get off to a good start and build on that.
 

brokenswiftie

Prophet of Truth
Banned
May 30, 2018
2,921
I think it's possible and I think it's fair. Microsoft is doing all the right moves while Sony is completely out of touch with their core base.

Sony's communication is piss poor and they've been taken Sony really bad decisions. Xbox had a really meh first year but things are about to change very soon.

.
Things have been about to change for Xbox for nearly a decade at this point
 

TitanicFall

Member
Nov 12, 2017
8,282
I voted no. However it's not impossible. It would require Sony making PS3-level mistakes though. GP will hopefully be big for MS, but I feel like Sony is sitting on an "In case of emergency, break glass" option for PSNow they can use if they ever feel like they are losing too much ground.
 

The Artisan

"Angels are singing in monasteries..."
Moderator
Oct 27, 2017
8,132
Gamepass is Xbox though so??????

it's kinda in the branding, unless your making a distinction between the service, and the hardware, in which case, I agree, but I'd argue Microsoft realizing that they could never hope to get to where Sony is in terms of mindshare in terms of console sales alone, is why they've gone the services route.
aren't the sales numbers of Ps5 and Xbox Series S|X much closer than Ps4/Xbone launch aligned?
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,290
wherever
Jun 23, 2019
6,446
I think it's possible and I think it's fair. Microsoft is doing all the right moves while Sony is completely out of touch with their core base.

Sony's communication is piss poor and they've been taken Sony really bad decisions. Xbox had a really meh first year but things are about to change very soon.

Completely out of touch yet, selling almost 2:1 to Series X? Piss poor communication? Bad decisions? You can argue the particulars, but almost a year into the current gen and all of those things stated are extremely in the wrong direction when describing Sony.
 

Melchiah

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,190
Helsinki, Finland
I do not fathom that there are people that actually believe this. Microsoft had Fable, Project Gotham Racing, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Crimson Skies, Rallisport Challenge, Midtown Madness etc. Microsoft's biggest problem was always outsourcing development and the studios they partnered with getting acquired as they sat.

Microsoft got studios because they needed someone to come in and develop content for Game Pass. Playground, Undead Labs did not own any property and The Initiative has been brought in to make a legacy title. Getting studios like Ninja Theory, InXile, Obsidian or Zenimax that owned IP was a bonus, and in the case of latter iconic IP. Had they not got Bethesda, they would have pushed for someone else. They would have possibly met the asking price for Warner Brothers Interactive Entertainment.

How long it's been since those IPs were available, and what other major IPs did they release last gen aside from Halo, Forza and Gears? Hell, the 360 had all of what you listed, yet it still failed to become the mind share leader. Acquiring something like Bethesda is their best hope for turning the tide; luring previously indifferent players from the competing platform by having those well-known and beloved multiplatform IPs available only on their ecosystem from now on.


EDIT:
They already made their big splash which ended with Zenimax Media. And the Zenimax acquisition was huge enough that we are still talking about how big it was.

My point exactly.
 

eldenjon

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
May 15, 2018
355
Possibly. Once Gamepass hits 40+ million users, Microsoft should be getting huge revenues coming in consistently that could make up for less consoles sold.
I have serious doubts about how profitable gamepass is currently. It's $9.99 a month which seems very promotional considering its the same price as PSNow and the number of third party day 1 licensing deals they're making. I suspect that it's going to take subscriptions in the hundreds of millions and some price hikes to be really profitable.
 

Khrol

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,179
Not a chance in hell. They will do better this generation, but they won't ever lead the industry again. Their position during the 360 era was a fluke. Even with Game Pass and all their studios, Xbox will always be in last place when it comes to relevance. Sony is just too big globally and Nintendo is Nintendo.
 
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Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,345
I could see Xbox gaining some ground if Sony keeps moneyhatting third person cinematic adventures and players get bored of that whole approach. But who knows? It feels too early in the game to tell.
 

Toriko

Banned
Dec 29, 2017
7,711
I would genuinly like to meet these people who do not want to buy a box and controller to play their AAA games but the moment it is available on their phones via streaming they will go buy a controller and play these AAA games on their phones.

I genuinely want to see who are these people and how predominant they are to change the tide any which way lol.

I personally have not met anyone who is like " hey I want to play the next Call of Duty but I dont want to buy a console or setup a PC but now that I can stream a laggy version of it in my phone I will most certainly start playing Call of Duty!"
 

Onlywantsapples

alt account
Banned
May 13, 2021
1,521
The PS5 is outpacing the PS4. By all accounts The Series X/S is lagging behind the Xbox One in shipments. There's nearly a 2:1 gap in sales right now.

I'll quote Welfare's thread:

Ampere Analysis: Console sales Q1 2021: Switch sell-through increases year-on-year, PS5 outsells Xbox Series X|S 2 to 1 | ResetEra
I can't help but wonder how much is going on in the background with manufacturing, and if the story would be any different had they manufactured more, but yeah......

aren't the sales numbers of Ps5 and Xbox Series S|X much closer than Ps4/Xbone launch aligned?

Answering this is a bit of a can of worms, because there's just a lot we don't know. Worth noting in all of this that MS did start manufacturing a bit later than Sony (wanna say by a month or 2), and the Series X is supposedly (I can't speak to this myself not an expert), is harder to manufacture.
 

MercuryLS

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
5,578
I would genuinly like to meet these people who do not want to buy a box and controller to play their AAA games but the moment it is available on their phones via streaming they will go buy a controller and play these AAA games on their phones.

I genuinely want to see who are these people and how predominant they are to change the tide any which way lol.

I personally have not met anyone who is like " hey I want to play the next Call of Duty but I dont want to buy a console or setup a PC but now that I can stream a laggy version of it in my phone I will most certainly start playing Call of Duty!"

You can stream on big screens too you know.
 

gremlinz1982

Member
Aug 11, 2018
5,331
How long it's been since those IPs were available, and what other major IPs did they release last gen aside from Halo, Forza and Gears? Hell, the 360 had all of what you listed, yet it still failed to become the mind share leader. Acquiring something like Bethesda is their best hope for turning the tide; luring previously indifferent players from the competing platform by having those well-known and beloved multiplatform IPs available only on their ecosystem from now on.
No one cares about how long it takes before an IP is available, all that matters is that the next entry is quality. Do we think that if we have a quality Fable or Perfect Dark that gamers will not gravitate towards these? Killer Instinct for crying out loud has seen 10 million gamers try it, Sea of Thieves is at over 20 million, 24 million and counting have played Forza Horizon 4, and last I checked, a game like State of Decay II had seen 5 million users.

If they make a quality game, people will try these games out, especially with Game Pass.

They are also not hoping that they will get gamers. There are people who love Western RPG's, shooters. You are still going to get your Witcher 4, Mass Effect, Dragon Age in addition to Avowed,Starfield, The Elder Scrolls, The Outer Worlds, Fable and whatever InXile is working on. You are still going to get your shooters like Battlefield and Call of Duty, but you are going to have access to games like Perfect Dark, DOOM and at some point Wolfenstein. These will be swayed, and there is no DRM, forced Kinect, $100 price disparity or poor PR to deal with.
 

Onlywantsapples

alt account
Banned
May 13, 2021
1,521
I would genuinly like to meet these people who do not want to buy a box and controller to play their AAA games but the moment it is available on their phones via streaming they will go buy a controller and play these AAA games on their phones.

I genuinely want to see who are these people and how predominant they are to change the tide any which way lol.

I personally have not met anyone who is like " hey I want to play the next Call of Duty but I dont want to buy a console or setup a PC but now that I can stream a laggy version of it in my phone I will most certainly start playing Call of Duty!"
It's not just about phones, though phones are a big part of it, it's also

1) Tablets
2) Smart TVs
3) just about any PC, etc

While I think your points are fair in the here and now, I think it's very worth noting that in Microsoft doing an all of the above strategy, it means they can think a bit to the future, and I think it's fair to say that over the next 10-15 years things will improve on the streaming side, it won't be enough to have everyone move to streaming, but it will be enough to probably be a substantial growth vector for Microsoft.

This is the company that also wants to do streaming sticks.
 

manuvlad

Member
Mar 26, 2019
765

riotous

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,347
Seattle
Exactly. MS would have to pull off something like acquiring Take Two and Rockstar to cut into the mindshare.
They will likely acquire more devs, so we'll see what the big picture is in a few years... and obviously Bethesda was a big move. It's an instant market-share increase for 2021 as all of that revenue will fall under their umbrella (old games selling, whatever they release this year including Deathloop, etc.)

But they have a lot of ground to cover to get close to Sony's market share.. and Sony isn't exactly shrinking their revenue lol
 

Ushay

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,351
Not a chance in hell. They will do better this generation, but they won't ever lead the industry again. Their position during the 360 era was a fluke. Even with Game Pass and all their studios, Xbox will always be in last place when it comes to relevance. Sony is just too big globally and Nintendo is Nintendo.

How does one sell over 80 million units on a fluke?
 

Novocaine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,946
I can't help but wonder how much is going on in the background with manufacturing, and if the story would be any different had they manufactured more, but yeah......

I don't really know much about it. But I did read recently that MS upgraded its xcloud server racks to SX. I'm wondering if that chewed into production of their consoles.
 

Joo

Member
May 25, 2018
3,883
I do not fathom that there are people that actually believe this. Microsoft had Fable, Project Gotham Racing, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Crimson Skies, Rallisport Challenge, Midtown Madness etc.
Maybe your average Era nerd feels differently, but other than Fable and PGR to some minor degree, none of these were popular franchises. Rallisport Challenge, Blue Dragon and Midtown Madness? These are the great MS IPs that just lacked developers? I have honestly never even heard about any of these.

When compared to Sony and Nintendo, MS was definitely lacking in quality, well-known IP before they got Bethesda and Zenimax owned IP was without a doubt the biggest reason why the value of the deal was as high as 7.5B.
 

Onlywantsapples

alt account
Banned
May 13, 2021
1,521
I don't really know much about it. But I did read recently that MS upgraded its xcloud server racks to SX. I'm wondering if that chewed into production of their consoles.
it 100% did.

Phil said as much, and how they needed to "strike a balance" between using chips for their datacenters and chips for the consoles.
 

henlo_birb

Member
Dec 15, 2017
1,885
User Warned - Platform Warring
I think the Xbox brand is dying. Phil Spencer gets a lot of praise for nothing. Where are the good games? I loved the Xbox and the 360. I sold my One. I just got gifted another about a month ago and I haven't even turned it on. I don't like their practice of acquiring studios. IMO, we have yet to see a good Halo game, a good Gears game, or a good Rare game since Spencer has been at the helm. Generally I find that even among my friends that always buy Microsoft stuff, the Xbox brand is just meh. There's no excitement for Xbox. There is nothing core to the experience of owning one that sets it apart in any way anymore.



Edit: For clarification; these are my genuine thoughts. Not a troll. No harsh language, no pointing to other systems, just my thoughts on the brand in a thread about the brand as someone who has interacted with the brand for ~18 years.
 
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eldenjon

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
May 15, 2018
355
Not a chance in hell. They will do better this generation, but they won't ever lead the industry ever again. Their position during the 360 era was a fluke. Even with Game Pass and all of their studios, Xbox will always be comfortably in last place when it comes to relevance. Sony is just too big globally and Nintendo is Nintendo.
Honestly though, Nintendo is somewhat volatile. There is a pattern of flip flopping every other generation (Gamecube --> Wii --> Wii U --> Switch) so current success does not indicate future success. They've been pretty consistent in the handheld market though, and since the home and handheld product lines are now merged it is likely that future consoles will mimic the design and success of switch, but there is no guarantee. On the other hand, Sony has been rock solid in the home console space, even considering PS3.
 

Hu3

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,587
Why? Just Bethesda and Minecraft alone are worth most of Sony's holdings. As a corporation, they'd take that deal ina heartbeat.

just Minecraft and Bethesda are valued at almost 10 billion.

Sony's estimated net worth is around $120 billion for the WHOLE corporation.

They would ABSOLUTELY make that deal.

😂🤣🤣🤣 thank you for the laugh my god.