Democrats have a midterm problem everywhere, not just Florida. In 2018 they had Trump to motivate them, but getting them to vote in the midterms without a villain? Not fucking easy
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Democratic turnout in Florida is higher than Republicans in all 67 counties.
- Thread starter Grimminski
- Start date
The thread details what the voting counts were like at this point in 2016. They are notably better now.
I know the projection is the point, but I just have to draw attention to the fact that Donald J. Trump literally changed his legal place of residence to Florida this year.
Like, seriously. Dude is literally an old man who just moved to Florida.
Right, but the circumstances are also vastly different because of the pandemic and the massive disparity between how each side intends to vote this year. I believe we'll win Florida because of the polling, but early voting has been a historically weak method of predicting anything. You have no way of knowing how election day vote will shake out based on the early vote.
Actually, according to a tweet from the Twitter user in the OP, Republicans had the early voting advantage in Florida at this point in 2016.
Early in-person voting hasn't started in Florida yet. This is all from mail-in voting, in which Republicans have always outpaced Democrats in Florida. Trump played himself.
I did. He noticeably doesn't cite where he's getting any of those numbers from and he's also pretty vague about what the numbers he's presenting even mean.
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Can anyone mail in vote in Florida? I just feel like this could align with more Dems foregoing election or early vote for mail in vote?
Well it's a redistricting year, so Dems winning state government seats could be huge for the future of the party in Florida.
Turns out downplaying and incompetently handling a pandemic that ravages seniors isn't the way to win their hearts and minds.
Yes, anyone can request a mail-in ballot in Florida. That's how I voted this year. And you could be right, but that would also mean ignoring all the polls and news of shifting support, and I have a hard time believing that.
Florida shares info on absentee ballots as they come in.
Statistics - County Vote-by-Mail and Early Voting Reports
countyballotfiles.floridados.gov
The claim in the tweet is somewhat different than how the thread title may be read. He lists turnout rate which would be the percentage of ballots returned by members of each party, simply calling it turnout in the title could be read as more voters registered as Democrats in each county.
I don't think anyone is reading it that way, since that's not what turnout means.
He's pushing a lot of numbers beyond what's publicly available there. There's no indication of where he's pulling the number of 2020 voters who didn't vote in 2016 or the party breakdown of that count. Or where he's getting the percentage of "vote method shifters."
Anyway, my overall point is that 1) early voting has never been a good predictor, which Nate Silver has gone on at length about in the past, and it's bound to be an especially poor one this year when the pandemic has completely shaken up when and how everyone is going to vote in the middle of an election that's likely to have extremely high turnout in general. And 2) it may not be a great idea to trust some dude on Twitter who's using uncited numbers to say otherwise, without showing his work or explaining anything in a coherent way. Especially when said dude's bio doesn't suggest any experience in statistical analysis but does say he's worked as a spokesperson and an ad maker (aka his whole career has been creating spin) and he's begging for likes while promising to tell people news they want to hear in exchange. Maybe he's right, but if it looks like a grifter and sounds like a grifter...
All of this over reporting of Democratic voting turnouts is making me anxious. It's like the media wants to rally the Republicans to vote...
Me too. I am still afraid of all the Florida mans coming out of the swamps in droves during Election Day
A good sign right now for sure, but I think we have to also take into account that we all knew that the Ds would be voting by mail far more than the Rs, who will likely turn out in person much more than Ds who will favor mail-in voting. Trump's idiotic ranting against mail-in voting lead to this. This is all despite Trump trying to backpedal with Florida in particular, who has hilariously been on record trying to say "well Florida's mail-in voting is fine actually" a couple times since his campaign started to realize that this messaging would particularly hurt him in Florida.
All Florida voting has been mail-in only right now. The in-person Early Voting period hasn't yet started, and everyone should expect Rs to close the gap in terms of turnout when that happens. It's going to be extremely tight in Florida.
All Florida voting has been mail-in only right now. The in-person Early Voting period hasn't yet started, and everyone should expect Rs to close the gap in terms of turnout when that happens. It's going to be extremely tight in Florida.
I will continue fighting to make sure Biden goes more left but I fully admit that just having a day where I dont have to think about the president is immensely attractive to me
The stupidity is simply breathtaking. Less than 3 weeks until this mean-spirited buffoon reaps what he has sown.
Well, he is also doing his best to kill off that group through Corona virus and super spreader events in Florida and elsewhere. There is no rhyme nor reason.
I think you're right. I haven't seen a single person in this state praise DeSantis. Dude is a fucking clown and we all know it.
Those people don't believe these reports and think Trump already has it in the bag.
I believe on Florida. It's bound to get something right one of these days
Yep, because Trump keeps claiming the polls are false and his polls show him winning by landslide. On top of that, Republicans that don't believe every word Trump says - aren't voting for Trump.
Republicans don't really need to be rally to vote. Republicans, unlike Democrats, have historically been motivated to vote each election. If someone is already a trump supporter and a republican, they are likely to be voting anyways. So no need to worry about that.
Hopefully a strong Democratic victory happens on November 3rd in Florida!
And for that matter, all elections after that point. My biggest concern (As someone looking at the USA from the outside) is that after these elections and Trump's lot is hopefully removed is that turnout decreases and Republicans come back strong in the following elections, and their representatives are smarter and more sinister than Trump. The pendulum swinging back and forth is no longer a healthy option for your democracy, the Republicans have to fade away.
And for that matter, all elections after that point. My biggest concern (As someone looking at the USA from the outside) is that after these elections and Trump's lot is hopefully removed is that turnout decreases and Republicans come back strong in the following elections, and their representatives are smarter and more sinister than Trump. The pendulum swinging back and forth is no longer a healthy option for your democracy, the Republicans have to fade away.
Republicans are going to vote, regardless. Trump hasn't expanded his base though, Democrats who sat out in 2016 or voted for Trump are energized, and independents are breaking for Biden. Don't worry about an energized GOP. There aren't enough of them when the rest of the electorate is equally energized. As long as we all VOTE, we got this.
