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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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I'M pretty sure Bernie won it.
I don't know if they officially announced anything or not.
As far as I know the candidates are moving onto NH at this point since that primary is Tuesday.
It is iirc. As far as the reported results, Bernie won both first and realignment votes. Bernie and Pete virtually tied the state delegate equivalent count.
We are on to New Hampshire now.
If Biden drops out I imagine black voters going more with Bernie than Pete. Pete is a complete unknown in every sense of the word with a history of being a terrible leader in regards to the concerns and treatment of African Americans in South Bend. Black voters aren't going to overlook that, the more round table discussions he has with black voters the more he's going to get grilled on policies and his track record with the black population in South Bend.
Like it's been stated, if Biden wasn't Obama's VP he would be dead in regards to black support. Him being the VP to Obama affords him so much cushion with black voters.
Like it's been stated, if Biden wasn't Obama's VP he would be dead in regards to black support. Him being the VP to Obama affords him so much cushion with black voters.
Oh yeah? You won't be so excited when you find out what ABC stands for: Always Be Caucusing
White South Carolinians to a tee it's all about maintaining the status quo here. That shit Trump is doing doesn't affect them because it's always been crap here and it's never changing, so why would I make my life even crappier by paying another tax?. Sure a couple of brown kids may have been thrown in jail, but hey Obama did that to so it makes it even. As long as black people are worse off than me at least I can get squeeze some benefit out of this system. /s
This is pretty much the entire thought process you have to deal with when it comes to white voters down here.
Mike "Stop and Frisk" Bloomberg just tells me that the fact is voters just vote on name recognition and perceived winningness.
Ok, but that doesn't answer my question or address any of my points. You think this is how Pete comes off to black voters? Over the other candidates? I just don't see it. They'd go Klobuchar first by this logic.
Do remember that polls largely suggested that Bernie was second preference to a majority of Biden voters. This is why I think Bernie stands to gain from a Biden fallout. Bloomberg is kind of unknown in that its hard to gauge the impact of his ad-blanketing this early in the race.
He's been actively campaigning in black communities, apologizing for his past. He's terrible, but at the very least he's doing the work. What is Buttigieg doing to get the minority vote?
In national polling I could see him getting a boost because of name rec., in actual primary goer votes? Nah.
<-- White South Carolinian Bernie Supporter :)
Most of the liberals I know don't really care who the nominee will be, Steyer's over-representation in the polls is just a reflection of the enormous amount of $ he spends on ads here
Do you know America to be a selfless nation?
idk, most people I've ever met are just worried about themsekves
Yeah black people never had any problems before Trump, they must wish for the halcyon days when the government stayed in the background. The good old days when white liberals never had to feign interest in minorities as a way of virtue signalling how much better they were than Trump.
Never ending nightmare. Krystal Ball talks about what's going on a bit with what happened. Essentially as soon and the satellite caucuses were coming in (from the minority ones) and were all like 80+% Bernie, Tom Perez (DNC chair) suddenly wanted a re-canvas.
This is mostly referring to my personal experience about people who don't care about politics down here and don't follow it. The ones who default to Fox News and no other new station because it tells them what they want to hear.
One of the things I really don't understand, that I see a lot on places like twitter, is how prevalent the attitude is among supporters of different democratic candidates is that if they don't get the exact one they want, they just won't vote at all.
It's as if if they were given the choice between having maybe half of what they want but then compromising on some other things in order to get it, or instead having someone shit directly into their mouths every day for four years while getting nothing of what they want, they'd take the mouth shitting option every time.
Except usually the person saying this stuff is privileged enough to be in the position where they'd actually just be watching someone else getting their mouth shit in and is catching some splashback at most. It's like a special version of the whole "fuck you I got mine at least" attitude.
It's as if if they were given the choice between having maybe half of what they want but then compromising on some other things in order to get it, or instead having someone shit directly into their mouths every day for four years while getting nothing of what they want, they'd take the mouth shitting option every time.
Except usually the person saying this stuff is privileged enough to be in the position where they'd actually just be watching someone else getting their mouth shit in and is catching some splashback at most. It's like a special version of the whole "fuck you I got mine at least" attitude.
Absolute nonsense. That timing wouldn't have been a factor.
Perez knows the rules. Only a candidate can request a recount. He merely wanted to be on record disapproving the way the Iowa Democrats conducted the caucus.
Those types are hyperconcerned with immigration more than anything. GOP politicians get a lot of traction here by saying they'll *do something* about your mexican neighbors
Are they Tulsi or Yang supporters? Those particular people were probably Republicans, Independents, or non-traditional voters regardless. Those votes would be nice to have, but they probably won't tip the scales in the locations that matter.
This is true, but I feel like this mentality (at least not trying to help others / the environment) has gotten us to where we are today
Yeah but to wait for three days until saying anything about it while people were speculating, and on the last day when it was going Bernie's way from the satellites? come on son.
How many times do we have to point to obvious non-conspiracy theories and have people think they're conspiracy theories.
Stop feeding conspiracy theory bullshit. This is only helping Trump. People are already moving on to New Hampshire, a change of one or two delegates in Iowa is not worth a massive conspiracy. Even Bernie is saying move on, he knows the momentum gain from Iowa win doesn't matter anymore.
Which is why Trump is polling in the 40s because some people just want less taxes and less immigration.
Most voters aren't on Twitter (or at least aren't engaging with it politically), so these 'Bernie/Yang/Tulsi or bust'ers are just rounding error in the grand scheme of things. Voting this time around (as it always has) will mainly consist of older (50+) voters going to the polls, pulling the lever for Pete or Biden, and not thinking about it again until the general election comes around, regardless of what the Twittersphere thinks.
Nicole after she saw 5th Harmony broke up and Cabello's solo career is kind of flopping
Starting to get a lil worried. I can see Bernie losing NH when that wasn't a thing. Hopefully Bernie has good ground game there, and Pete has almost nothing. Pete is doing terrible with people of color, though, so im assuming that it may not be bad if he wins NH. Bernie can still win NV and do well enough in SC to win Super Tuesday. But eh. Idk how true that is.
Nicole after she saw 5th Harmony broke up and Cabello's solo career is kind of flopping
That's also Robin Antin after she found an old demo that Scherzinger thought she threw in the trash.
I'm a little less worried about Bernie losing NH since it's going to be a primary this time and even in Iowa he had far more votes than Pete. I admit though that I'm completely ignorant on how the delegate system works there versus Iowas, so I'm open for correction.
any details on that? i only know her from pro-bernie youtube videos.
Oh shit, Pete never had a heel turn at all. He has remained that kid who loves Bernie and made it his life's work to be exactly where he is at this exact moment all to get Bernie elected.
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Tbh the big obstacle to Pete at this point - aside from himself ofc - is Bloomberg. If Biden bombs NH and NV, you might see his support shake, that much is true. But I don't think they'll default to Pete. From the polling, Bloomberg and Steyer to a lesser extent have way better odds.
User Banned (1 Week): Ignoring Staff Post with Regards to Conspiracy Theories
They are gaming the results.
Look, it could be a conspiracy up until last night, that´s when i got fed up with believing this was just a screw up.
Of course it was incompetence, but when they choose the release wrong results just to show Pete winning shit is just outrageous. Even NYT pointed out the mistakes, there´s at least 2.5 SDEs not counted in favor of Sanders that are pretty crystal clear. It´s an abomination that they are just ignoring this, waiting for a recount or whatever and maybe in two months when it doesn´t matter anymore they will correct the results to show that Bernie won in every metric. There´s not a single reported mistake affecting Pete, but literally dozens involving others.
The result of this mess is already clear: Bernie couldn´t give his victory speech Monday night, couldn´t get the bump from the spiked Selzer poll, and spent the entire week explaining why he won, which is a loss on itself. Pete took (and is still taking) numerous victory laps based on the wrong results. The fact that even NBC is not calling it a winner speaks volumes about how fucked up the results are.
All i wanted this week was for Bernie to win and Biden to be exposed as the paper tiger he is. Both of those happened, and it doesn´t seem to matter all that much considering the fuckery in the last few days. What an exhausting few days. And it´s only gonna get worse with the possibility of a real Pete win in Tuesday.
Found this interesting theory on Politico Magazine about recent elections in the US in general. I think it's got credibility.
Why does the Democrat establishment badly want a Pete win?
Because those neoliberal centrists in the DNC are afraid of socialism. Or something.
I can't believe we're still entertaining Bernie-related conspiracy theories. It could just be that older, whiter voters don't like him, and enough of those voters came out to push Pete over the top (especially once it became clear that Biden wasn't doing it for them). Or, I guess it could be a coordinated effort by the DNC, all of the media and gravity (all spearheaded by HILLARY!) to doom us to an eternity of centrism.
The race will become far more interesting once the voting demographics of upcoming contests become more diverse, especially as Biden's support keeps dropping off. For now, Iowa was a tie, and that doesn't really tell us anything. New Hampshire, on the other hand, will tell us a lot.
The idea is "they didn't want Bernie to win". But this makes numerous assumptions. First, that the DNC wanted to be seen as incompetent. Second, that there were no reasons to call a re-canvass and nothing at all went wrong with the satellite caucus rules that Bernie's camp themselves pushed for and pollsters before the recanvass were out there were confused on how they were calculating since the rules implied a different way to do things. That the other errors are entirely in Bernie's favor.
Krystal Ball is using the language of socialism/leftism in this segment. It's normalizing our ideas. You just love to see it.
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