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Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
Status
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Oct 26, 2017
20,440
I still don't get why Buttigieg is a thing.

He's the mayor of a small college town for fucks sake.

What am I missing.

Bloomberg could've been the mayor of midtown Manhattan only and it'd be 100x more impressive.

Historic candidacy.

Only good speaker in the primary other than Booker (RIP)

Platform aligns with median Dems

Does literally any interview that is requested.
 

Xx 720

Member
Nov 3, 2017
3,920
I don't know why everyone is suddenly proclaiming pete as some unstoppable force now, he barely won Iowa, a state where he put the vast majority of his resourses. Honeslty, warren is pulling some of Sander's support and Biden is pulling some of Pete's, but I wouldnt be surprised to see pete on the very bottom of the 4 come the end of the election.
Warrens is almost certainly out after NH, Biden by all accounts is struggling in finances for his campaign. Pete isn't a lock by any means but his path to the nomination has drastically improved. He can absolutely win this.
 

Tfritz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,258
"what can trump attack (any candidate) on?" is irrelevant because republicans will literally just make shit up
 

DiscoShark

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
479
Is it? You don't think Pete in the general would be a massive depressing factor for black voters?
Pete has no relevant support from black voters. Only if that changes will he have a chance.

It won't change.
Pete's not a contender until he can get greater than 0% support among black voters. That probably won't happen. The most interesting Pete-related data point was that he was a lot of people's #2, but again: consider Iowa's demographics and the fact that caucuses are weird.

In any case, the candidates themselves are moving on. We should too. Bernie performed above expectations. Pete also did, because he threaded that needle between: saturating Iowa with ads (a smart play, campaign-wise) and capitalizing on demographics that were favorable to him (i.e., no minorities).

This is something that's often brought up as a valid criticism of Buttigieg but at least in Iowa, Pete's share of the minority vote was higher than both Warren and Biden - Bernie took the lion share of it. Obviously Iowa doesn't have a very high minority population but it's a reason to be optimistic for the candidate's appeal with POC as he continues to undermine the electability argument from Biden. I expect his share of the minority vote to rise if he does well in NH and Biden continues to crater.

We'll see in the coming weeks.

Source:
Biden, who has polled strongly nationally among blacks, a key Democratic constituency – had to contend with comparative lack of racial or ethnic diversity among Iowa caucus-goers. Ninety-one percent were white. That said, among the comparatively few nonwhite caucus-goers, Sanders won 43%. His competitors were clumped distantly - Buttigieg, 15% among nonwhites; Biden, 13%; Warren and entrepreneur Andrew Yang, 12% apiece.
 

Depths

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,512
I agree that the random British tweeter probably should shut the fuck up about what Americans should do, and how it's incredibly stupid for her to advocate people not vote so that Republicans can maintain their current status quo.

Oh. No clue what you're talking about. I never said that people shouldn't vote for a dem agaisnt Trump.
 

SneakersSO

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,353
North America
I think the voters who that would matter to are mostly already republicans tho
Absolutely, 1000% not. The middle of this country is full of religious white & black democrats whose tolerance for a homosexual candidate will only go so far. And its exactly there where he needs to win to gain the Presidency. Pennsylvania, Minnesota - states that went red in 16, that do have religious communities in rural areas, who can flip between voting D & R, and often have, and all they need is a reason to stay home on GE day.

And to be clear - Bernie absolutely has his own issues he'll have to overcome. Florida is basically not attainable with Bernie on the ballot. But any campaign relying on Florida at this point, moderate or liberal, is crazy anyway. But at least Bernie's populist message can reach those voters in areas we need in order to win the Presidency. Pete doesn't have the political position, is far too inexperienced, lacks the support of the black & latino community, and is the first openly gay presidential candidate - a concept that is simply untested on the national stage.
 

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,126
Pete will only win with a brokered convention which would be such a clusterfuck it would depress turnout on top of Pete's problems as a candidate. A guy with 4% support among black voters will not suddenly become their champion.
 

Soulsis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,562
I'm happy to see that Bernie has such passionate support but the most terrifying outcome of this whole thing is him being the nominee. Have we ever had a far-left presidential candidate actually be viable and win over independents/moderate conservatives? Far right has proved to be electable in this country but not necessarily the other side.

Between a healthy economy and the "socialism" boogyman in this country, I fear another Trump term >_<
 

Addie

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,686
DFW
I'm happy to see that Bernie has such passionate support but the most terrifying outcome of this whole thing is him being the nominee. Have we ever had a far-left presidential candidate actually be viable and win over independents/moderate conservatives? Far right has proved to be electable in this country but not necessarily the other side.

Between a healthy economy and the "socialism" boogyman in this country, I fear another Trump term >_<
Well, let me turn that around.

If Bernie's the nominee, that just means it's your job (and my job, because Bernie is absolutely not my first choice) to convince persuadable folks he's better than Trump.

To be honest, there is no perfect option.

Barack Obama is not walking through that door.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
Fact is, Bernie is the type of candidate you have to be ALL IN for, and I don't think you're gonna do that with the democratic electorate.

people just want to show up and vote every 4 years andnot think about government or politics.
that's why the moderate lane is appealing.

bernies ceiling is that 45-50 percent of Democrats, (and apparently it's don't to 30 percent this time around)
A moderate candidate is way more capable of going from 30 percent to 70 percent, and that's what's gonna happen.

it coulda been warren, Beto, Harris, or booker, but they miscalculated.
so it's gonna be mayo Pete.
And I'm fine with that.

I don't want another divisive presidency. Bernie would face NONSTOP bullshit daily.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,819
Seems like a safe choice for a nominee. Will do wonders with turnout!
unknown.png
 

SneakersSO

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,353
North America
I'm happy to see that Bernie has such passionate support but the most terrifying outcome of this whole thing is him being the nominee. Have we ever had a far-left presidential candidate actually be viable and win over independents/moderate conservatives? Far right has proved to be electable in this country but not necessarily the other side.

Between a healthy economy and the "socialism" boogyman in this country, I fear another Trump term >_<

Then the democratic voter base should put up someone who can win. But the party is simply too divided on what it wants - the far left want more social programs and to stick it to the corporations, the moderates believe they can still work with the GOP (LOL) all while maintain corporate interests. And the voters seem to want Bernie's populist policies - they all poll extremely will across both parties - the only issue is that Bernie wears the socialist label with pride.

Biden, Klob, and Bloomberg are all there, happily waiting for votes if people want a safe, moderate candidate with the largest likelihoods to win. And yet, increasingly, it doesn't seem like any of them (except Biden - and even that is seeming to collapse by the minute) have the support or polls necessary to run away with this thing.
 

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,152
unironically, even having been through the iowa shit, if there is one particular thing I wish would fucking stop it's people treating releases of data/polls/etc like it's fucking christmas

YOU'VE NEVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS

IN SIXTEEN YEARS, NOTHING HAS EVER BEEN THE SAME

TUNE IN LIVE AT ELEVEN TO FIND OUT MORE

what the fuck is wrong with these people, and by "these people" I mean "everyone"

Capitalism demands that you get the most eyes on your website/TV channel/newspaper lest you lose ad dollars. And exaggeration, hyperbole, and general clickbait horse race bullshit gets those views.

Capitalism straight up poisons democracy.

More from the Granite State



Biden and Warren might not even hit viability

Why the fuck is Tulsi at 6%


NH isn't a caucus. I don't think "viability" is a thing here.
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
What's the over-under on them just not releasing anything further and hoping people kinda forget about it?

I doubt Bernie's campaign asks for it. All the other ones wouldn't gain anything from it. It was such a cluster that I think anyone paying attention knows the story behind it and don't really care because they just see it as a tie. If this all happened caucus night it would be a different story.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Capitalism demands that you get the most eyes on your website/TV channel/newspaper lest you lose as dollars. And exaggeration, hyperbole, and general clickbait horse race bullshit gets those views.

Capitalism straight up poisons democracy.
The problem with this logic is that news channels will still want views even if they weren't after profit motive. If hyperbole gets more people to actually seek information, then hyperbole will be used to get their attention.
 

Addie

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,686
DFW
I am so goddamned tired of the fight between accelerationists and incrementalists.

Tell me what's feasible now and pitch plausible courses of action for the future.
 

medinaria

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,536
This is something that's often brought up as a valid criticism of Buttigieg but at least in Iowa, Pete's share of the minority vote was higher than both Warren and Biden - Bernie took the lion share of it.

do we have better numbers for this than the entrance polls?

as of the last numbers that I saw, this was not actually true - it might have changed, I can't find better ones than these:

DtgaTTu.png
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
@"Depths, post: 28913620, member: 7673"]

You understand we are not currently living through a moderate Presidency right?

like, you get that?
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Why? I'm tired of this moderate shit.
If I have to tell you why candidates to the left of Obama are better than a fascist white supremacist then idek
I am so goddamned tired of the fight between accelerationists and incrementalists.

Tell me what's feasible now and pitch plausible courses of action for the future.
If accelerationism worked in America then Trump would be completely 100% fucked for 2020. He isn't so it doesn't. This isn't some complex formula.
 

samoyed

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
15,191
On the national stage:

Good for Pete:
White
Christian
Young
Military

Bad for Pete:
Gay
Elitist

Good for Bernie:
White
Working class (Share-a-beer-with-him-ability)
Angry

Bad for Bernie:
"Socialism"
Taxes
Old

??? for Bernie:
Jewish

One week ago I didn't think I'd be comparing them like this but we live in interesting times.
 

Soulsis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,562
Well, let me turn that around.

If Bernie's the nominee, that just means it's your job (and my job, because Bernie is absolutely not my first choice) to convince persuadable folks he's better than Trump.

To be honest, there is no perfect option.

Barack Obama is not walking through that door.

Well, sure, and we'll do our best, but my hope is that the candidate in question can be persuasive as well. Bernie has had four years to sell his vision to his own party and he's having trouble beyond his fandom, which hasn't really grown much since 2016 mind you.
 
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