I'm from North Dakota. I lived my entire childhood there.We joke about this shit all the time.
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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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I'm from North Dakota. I lived my entire childhood there.We joke about this shit all the time.
Nate Cohn was confused at how they were calculating them too, so there might be a relation there.
oligarch with a lower-case 'O'
Sanders campaign should have a call with them about the coin flips
The latest poll has them even actually. Bernie hasn't polled even there even in outliers for a long time.
need to start flipping something else instead given the way coin flips have been going!
A lot of the reported inconsistencies are based on questionable SDE calculations. Tom Perez is actually doing exactly what a lot of Sanders supporters on places like S4P have been asking for--calling for a recount to investigate the inconsistencies between vote totals and SDE's awarded.
the new polls hitting the 538 model have almost pushed Bernie to be the favorite in Alabama.
Model is probably overreacting to the initial data right now, but if he takes NH and keeps rolling...
Model is probably overreacting to the initial data right now, but if he takes NH and keeps rolling...
He's the closest thing to "actually good" we have ever gotten in a presidential candidate in modern times.
I just got off a big ol' tweet thread about it but I don't know that I buy the party really hates Sanders but they sure don't like the actual American people.
I think if you look at it from the idea that the satellite caucus results don't require a strong focus because the people there are disabled and good luck getting them to turn out on election day you miss the structural oppression forest for the electoral vote trees. And then it becomes a self-reinforcing behavior. Don't put investment into a ground game focused on the disabled, don't put focus on a campaign where disability rights issues matter. None of that is worth doing because they won't vote. You can see this in the way NYT reported the results, that they did not actually expect the satellite caucus numbers to be so strongly in support of Sanders (they shouldn't have, but that's what happens when you write these groups off as a lost cause).
If this sounds ghoulish I'd like to remind you that people on this forum regularly decry the legitimacy of polling of the youth vote. While the youth vote in the broadest sense doesn't have all the same structural issues disabled groups do, is the apparent lack of turnout just a youth thing, or is this built up by structural issues making youth participation in the vote harder (i.e., poverty, isolation)? Easy to see the ways in which the bean counters in their goal of optimizing the result numbers are sacrificing anything resembling a coherent policy position in these terms, isn't it??
I just can't see it happening. Sanders lost Alabama in 2016 with a split of 80/20.
The recent Suffolk university poll has Pete go from 15% to 19% . Bernie 24% to 25%.
All I'm trying to note is that he doesn't have a huge lead and his win isnt guaranteed. He has the best chance to win NH for sure right now tho, but the IA polls underestimated Pete's support.
He's good. "Just not-trump" is Biden, and he just faceplanted.
538 is super volatile on the first few states. The nature of data-driven modeling.
he's a career politician who helped shape america's mass incarceration practices, expanded the president's power to unilaterally do acts of war, and has a close working relationship with hillary clinton and joe biden. he has incredibly good branding though.
you're absolutely right, it remains to be seen how voters who changed their mind after Iowa split
however, NH doesn't have realignment after the first vote, which was a massive boost to Pete
as always, no matter who you support, fight like you're ten points behind
Y'all should have been more suspicious days ago but better late than never I guess.
And on the question of whether it's intentional or just astounding incompetence, it's sort of irrelevant as this degree of incompetence is functionally the same thing as active sabotage, but in any case I think it's probably safe to provisionally assume that it's both, unless there's someone out here legitimately still wanting to give them the benefit of the doubt.
And on the question of whether it's intentional or just astounding incompetence, it's sort of irrelevant as this degree of incompetence is functionally the same thing as active sabotage, but in any case I think it's probably safe to provisionally assume that it's both, unless there's someone out here legitimately still wanting to give them the benefit of the doubt.
got to hand it to sanders's campaign for seeing the opportunityy of gaining a lot in the satellite caucuses. i feel like that kind of campaigning intuition would be a great asset in the general election against gop rat fuckers
also, it's interesting how people keep telling me that sanders doesn't care about minorities, yet his seems to be the only campaign that made a great effort in driving turnout in satellite caucuses where minorities dominate
seems like people aren't giving sanders enough credit
oh and there should also be credit given to mayor pete for managing to come out of nowhere all the way to a virtual tie
also, it's interesting how people keep telling me that sanders doesn't care about minorities, yet his seems to be the only campaign that made a great effort in driving turnout in satellite caucuses where minorities dominate
seems like people aren't giving sanders enough credit
oh and there should also be credit given to mayor pete for managing to come out of nowhere all the way to a virtual tie
I'm not sure it matters if they call it anymore. The polls are out and both Pete and Bernie got a bump from Iowa. If they call it for Bernie maybe he gets another point on a state he's favored to win? It was close enough that you can look at the data and feel like both candidates were strong enough to warrant a bump.
I do wonder where this leaves someone like Biden though. Obviously he's playing for super Tuesday but if the moderates abandoned him in Iowa, who's to say they won't do the same everywhere else?
Sanders Campaign specifically advocated/pushed for caucuses in minority areas and he hadby far the most minority support. They're also heads and shoulders above every other campaign when it comes to bilingualism and abelism.
Sanders is fantastic and provides by far the most progressive platform of any candidate, no one comes close.
"bad faith" doesn't even begin to describe this. I'd probably use the term "rat mode"
Well said, it's fact after fact, there's no need for conspiracy theories when you have those folks running the show.
Would be nice to set some sort of donations record today. There's a possibility i think.
Dude, come on! Are you not following this closely?
They can do as many recounts as they want, this is fine, but the timing of this shows Perez looking like the little kid losing the game and then taking away the ball so that he doesn't lose.
They have to report everything before they can do a recount, that's just common sense. Considering the number of mistakes i saw on Twitter, Bernie might increase his lead in the upcoming recount.
Seriously, you're the fucking DNC chair- the fuck are you fighting for?
It appears as though they're counted based on how many people show up which frankly, is how a caucus should be counted.
I wasnt aware that Klobuchar dropped out along with everyone else except the top 4? Thats what that poll shows.
Pete's campaign putting both the "rat" and the "fuck" into "ratfuck". Go away Pete.
I mean, it's 100% clear that the "enough is enough" line, while obviously a very poor choice of words considering the context, was directed towards the whole clusterfuck that has been the Iowa caucus in general.
Need to see Nevada and South Carolina to gauge whether there's actual momentum in play or whether the models are overcompensating.
Sounds like Mayo pete doesn't like how the minorities at those satellites voted.
So enough is enough means, let's do the whole cluster fuck again?
He's screaming of a fucked system while in fact being the fucked system.
luckily he doesn't have much of a path and even with all of his claiming victory shenanigans and the media propping it up, he saw no real bump in the polls.
He's not going to be the nominee. Iowa and New Hampshire are very white. When we get to states that are more diverse, he'll collapse.
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