-
Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
-
We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.
Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
- Start date
- Status
The primaries are proportional delegate-wise. Multiple people will get delegates, the top two will get the same number of delegates for the national primary.
We get to do this tracking more than 50 times, each state/territory with its own shits and giggles. Iowa can't have all the fun!
Then the convention. Brokered, you say? Or just the greatest caucus of all?
But truly the biggest story - the needle and the damage done.
We get to do this tracking more than 50 times, each state/territory with its own shits and giggles. Iowa can't have all the fun!
Then the convention. Brokered, you say? Or just the greatest caucus of all?
But truly the biggest story - the needle and the damage done.
No
Warren looks to be at 21 percent
Bernie at 27 percent
And Pete af 25 percent.
this is a three person race and y'allare treating it like a 2 person race.
All predictions had warren coming in 15-19 percent.
she's not even viable in almost every NH poll coming in. she might verywell walk away from that state with nothing to show. if that happens she's completely fucked
If Warren isn't top 3 in NH her window seems pretty shut to me.
We're actively watching a neck and neck race with only 3% left to report to determine the winner and you're clamoring for us to pay more attention to the margin between 3rd and 4th place?
Y'all are downplaying warren when she is definitely the one most aligned with what the party averages out to be, which is gonna be real important when a month from now we still don't have a frontrunner.
So their strategy was give Pete 5 days of victories and Sanders finally winning it at the end and no one cares.
Well played DNC.
This is but a lap in a marathon.
warren did better time here than expected.
She also lost. And dipped considerably from a couple months back when she was the favorite in Iowa. Not too much to be excited about to be honest.
that's definitely how horse race narratives work, no one cares about the actual winner. you understand elections and newstertainment industry really well.
It's a good thing New Hampshire is but just one of 49 states left.
you gon get shit for saying this bro but i hear you lol
i guess to your credit something crazy could happen that changes everything completely? i assume no one has to tell you that her coming third in iowa and probably 4th in NH is a really, really bad for her prospects as the eventual nominee.
Warren is great, but she has horrible minority support just like pete. They won't become the nominee without that support.
It was a benefit for Warren. She overperformed her polling numbers and was ahead of people like Biden and Klobuchar by a healthy amount. In terms of how candidates did, it's basically this:
Exceeded Expectations:
Buttigieg
Warren
Klobuchar
Met / Slightly Exceeded Expectations:
Bernie
Yikes:
Biden
LOL:
Yang
Gabbard
Steyer
Last edited:
Won't that support go to the winner by default? Like I don't see older black people just heading to Trump. And at this point in the game is anyone going to just sit this shut out?
He outperformed his aggregate polling by 3-4 points. About the same as Warren I think.
It's not horrible minority support, it's horrible minority PREFERENCE. And I think the distinction is important.
Warren has done nothing in her short policy making life to disadvantage minorities.
She's just not known that well among them.
Everyone that learns about her, ends up liking her.
For a long time, before Bernie fuckers on twitter started posting snakes, she had the highest favorability ratings from all these candidates.
Okay, dude, I know you're having a moment, but I really don't think some Twitter trolls are why this happened.
im just noticing this myself. he outperformed by those margins in the 2016 iowa caucuses too, damn. for references he outperformed polling in NH by like 9 points. if that trend holds then oo
i think bernie performed really well based on the polls. it was pete who hugely overperformed and then overperformed some more due to being enough people's 2nd choice.
True, it really hurt her when she put specifics to the popular Medicare for all policy.
How do you win the nomination without them, and would you want a candidate with low minority support?
That's fair, I just think he was expected to decisively win, and it's very very close. A lot of the polls that had him behind were iffy. My other concern is the difference between first and second votes which indicates Sanders might struggle to attract voters who previously supported other candidates.
ok, but you need their support to win the nomination and the other progressive candidate actually has shown that they can get minorities to vote for them.
You mean when she backed herself into a corner by promising not to raise broad based taxes to pay for it? You mean when she waffled on her plan for ages despite her brand being having a plan for everything? Or when she walked back her support? White papers aren't really the things that make campaigns tick. You first build support around the values and principles, THEN you make laws a reality.
Warren played it badly, in political terms.
No but I've donated to: Beto, Kamala, Bernie, and Warren this cycle.
And i was a berne guy in 2016.
I just think Warren is EXACTLY what the party and country need right now.
we don't need a populist to fight another populist. We need a smart pragmatic popular problem solver, and my hopes are with her.
Yea, chances are she won't get It.
but this is what the primary is.People picking their favorite weapons for the fight in November.
if it ends up that Bernie or Pete are that weapon, then o well, I'll pick those up then! But until June Warren is my gal
One page I see Pete up a little, another I see Bernie up. Why is this so confusing. It is hard enough to keep up with popular vs delegates.
Repectable, of course. It just seems her moment has passed. What do you see in the future that can revanp her campaign? Do you really expect her to win New Hampshire or Nevada? Will she have enough momentum to win California? I don't know.
If what they have updated is correct, Woodbury still has 7%, Bernie might take this.
Cherokee still has 14% to go.
Cherokee still has 14% to go.
He has that in the bag, it's the SDEs that are up in the air right now
Looks like it. Heck he may win SDEs they were 550 to 547 last I checked and the remaining precincts seem like they may favor him.
Bernie is up 1.49% over Pete now. SPOKE TOO SOON, PETEY BOY.
Edit: Actually, I can't tell if the Daily Kos numbers are based on the popular vote or caucus votes. Fuck me the caucus system is stupid.
Edit: Actually, I can't tell if the Daily Kos numbers are based on the popular vote or caucus votes. Fuck me the caucus system is stupid.
Last edited:
The wild thing is that a) it's two days later and we still don't know the results, and b) just now as the results are finally being released, I see no one talking about it with the interest of a few days ago when everyone was on the edge of their seats
I see the fact that there are like 1,400 delegates up to win in Super Tuesday, vs like 150 in February
- Status