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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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User Banned (1 Week): Violating the staff post with regards to conspiracy theorizing
Is this normal? My fucking twitter DMs are blowing up and i dont know what's going on, there's so much information and articles coming out about strange occurences
To quote peter, "It's just bullshit, let's get that out of the way."If this meme isn't appreciated either I don't know what to do
I have financial ties to a company....that....developed an app.If this meme isn't appreciated either I don't know what to do
it's okay, they won't accept because there's no vaping in the white house
I think it's really stupid and dangerous that they continue to describe gross incompetence as rigging. There is no rigging. The Iowa caucus is a huge operational failure but it's not being fabricated to benefit someone. I think people who fling around this vocabulary makes us Leftists look dumb. :/
If you told me that consequences were identical I'd agree. Like, I'm easy. But rigging clearly indicates a biased malicious manipulation that did not occur.
I dont want to imagine such a thing, but when so many coincidences happen in a row with such a failure that has never happend before, when we actually have media on record saying the dem establishment are doing everythin they can to stop sanders from winning, its kinda hard to blame people
Seeing people on MSNBC melt down and say the DNC is coming up with shit to catch him "from doing damage to the party as a hypothetical nominee" is just so depressing, seeing them in real time also try and start running multiple candidates like bloomberg and have john kerry off the record consider running "because they arent happy with this field" and shit
Like is this the unity we've been hearing about? It just seems like a way to have trump win regardless of who wins the nomination
Chapo helped deliver the 2019 GOTY (Disco Elysium), now they will help deliver the GOAT presidency.
Hard core to the mega!!!!!!
It's Michael Nutter (former Mayor of Philadelphia) and Alexandra Rooker (California Democratic Party). As long as they're not active on both duties at the same time. If they allow overlap, then they have to explain it for sure.
For years Bloomberg has formed coalitions with mayors across the country regarding gun safety and other causes. This coalition hasn't even been activated yet for the campaign. Governor candidates for president tend to have a similar coalition to draw from in addition to the governors' association. Senators have stature and their state-level endorsements, but have to go into each state and really work from the bottom up, which requires more money and/or foregone-conclusion status in that state.
For years Bloomberg has formed coalitions with mayors across the country regarding gun safety and other causes. This coalition hasn't even been activated yet for the campaign. Governor candidates for president tend to have a similar coalition to draw from in addition to the governors' association. Senators have stature and their state-level endorsements, but have to go into each state and really work from the bottom up, which requires more money and/or foregone-conclusion status in that state.
I only have a second (and I'm sorry I can't spend more time responding because I would gladly do so) but as lots of people have pointed out for days: the Iowa caucus has always been a stupid mess. The 2012 Republican caucus is infamous for this reason.
Bernie did great in Iowa. He's doing great nationally. Bernie is fine. There are definitely people working against him. Him having opponents and people who don't want him elected is the same as every other candidate — even if some of his challenges are more unique (namely media bias, imo).
I just quoted the wrong thread and the wrong person about Joe's town hall.
The above post is probably semi-facetious, but a friendly reminder that Chapo Trap House supports Maduro. Any sane administration - even a fucking local one - wouldn't touch them with a 10 foot pole.
If you want to talk about the information, post a link to the original article instead of some twitter rando's conspiracy take.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/us/politics/what-happened-iowa-caucuses.html
I cant remember any other CTH comments about Maduro but that "democratic election" thing is not great.
Well, Warren supports Guaidó and I still want her to be in Bernie"s administration. No one is perfect.
Chapo Trap House is trash
I listened to a couple episodes and all they did was shit on everything, quote random books, try to seem smart, and just be annoying as shit.
Why do people listen to these clowns
They're like the kinda smart kids that hang out in the back of the classroom, call out the teacher on TECHNICALITIES constantly, make a funny joke once, and chase that feeling the whole semester, and get a D as the final grade.
I listened to a couple episodes and all they did was shit on everything, quote random books, try to seem smart, and just be annoying as shit.
Why do people listen to these clowns
They're like the kinda smart kids that hang out in the back of the classroom, call out the teacher on TECHNICALITIES constantly, make a funny joke once, and chase that feeling the whole semester, and get a D as the final grade.
hey... I've worked with this guy in real life! lmao didn't think I'd ever see him here. Extremely smart, dedicated, nice, and also intense and passionate person.
This is a common misunderstanding of how statistics works. According to the updated 538 model (which is very uncertain, due to the Iowa brouhaha), Bernie is the most likely candidate to win each Super Tuesday state except Alabama. This does not mean Bernie is likely to win every state except Alabama. Let's look at a simple example:
If there were 10 states and Bernie is 30% likely to win each, and Biden is second at 20% likely to win each, in 10/10 states, Bernie is the most likely to win. However, he still only has a 30% chance of winning in each one. That means, on average, he would only win 3 out of 10 states, even if he is the "favorite" in every single state.
Applying this logic to the 538 model, even if it is 100% accurate, given each state (sans Alabama) has Bernie at around a 40-50% likelihood of winning, means he would be expected, on average, to win only about 6 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday. That's what the model is forecasting.
Nobody is paying attention to this, but it´s huge. Other than the three snowbird caucuses, Bernie cleaned up in most of those. Margins like 194-0 in the muslin one and 196-12 in a latino one. If those 90 satellite caucuses amount to 3k votes or so i can see Sanders picking up 30 or so SDEs.
i dont pay for NYTimes lol, i'd never have access to that in the first place
it was a simple error in the tabulation that was quickly spotted and fixed hours ago. there's no conspiracy. and i would like to point out as a habitual elections return watcher that someone fat-fingering a return is not unheard of and you basically never hear about it because it's fixed in minutes.
He's an empath and he does best when he embraces that, instead of when he says shit like "I'll do a push up contest with trump"
I didn't say conspiracy, I said mistake. Though I did quote minor because I don't think it's minor.
So they fixed them? I saw the tweet below but it was unclear to people if they were aware of certain discrepancies so they started pointing things out like what I posted.
Is anyone else watching the Biden town hall on CNN? That was legit the best moment I've seen him have this entire campaign.
It's easy to forget that, as incoherent as he sometimes sounds and as spotty as some of his track record is, he still has a fierce compassion for people who are suffering.
Still glad he did poorly in Iowa and I wish he'd drop out immediately, of course. But in the midst of a campaign like this it's easy to forget how kind he is.
It's easy to forget that, as incoherent as he sometimes sounds and as spotty as some of his track record is, he still has a fierce compassion for people who are suffering.
Still glad he did poorly in Iowa and I wish he'd drop out immediately, of course. But in the midst of a campaign like this it's easy to forget how kind he is.
Their fanbase is even worse. r/chapotraphouse actually banned all Venezuelans from commenting, because the subreddit is so pro-Maduro that they unironically believe all anti-Maduro Venezuelans are US imperialist stooges. They've also expressed support for the batshit insane conspiracy theory that the humanitarian crisis under Maduro is a myth fabricated by western imperialist media.
Have i? I have tons of suspicion of the democratic party as it exists and what behind the scenes shit they would try to stop a hostile progressive surge...but i dont really want to belive they would literally try and fix voter roles right in the middle of broad daylight.
But at the same time im not going to simply dismiss it either.
yeah people are misunderstanding the statistics on Bernie being the favorite in every state. He's just favored, but upsets happen.
Also this is based on info RIGHT NOW. It's projected based off the current polls and results. Those can shift dramatically as real data continues to come in. But it's also projecting ahead to see Sanders wins in NH which then snowball into NV and SC, and then snowball into Super Tuesday. So a lot of dominos have to continue falling for it to end up there.
This also doesn't have anyone dropping out - some of Bernie's advantage is he has such a high-floor due to his locked in base of supports that if the whole field continues to stay in (and Bloomberg arrives to further fracture the moderate voters) - he is in the best position to end with the highest percentage of votes.
The model overall shows that right now he's the inside track for a majority of pledged delegates, but the second most likely scenario is no one reaches that majority and the convention is contested.
All of that lines up with the current data - but post Iowa polls, and polls in each state as the primaries approach, will rapidly change things and the model will react accordingly
Also this is based on info RIGHT NOW. It's projected based off the current polls and results. Those can shift dramatically as real data continues to come in. But it's also projecting ahead to see Sanders wins in NH which then snowball into NV and SC, and then snowball into Super Tuesday. So a lot of dominos have to continue falling for it to end up there.
This also doesn't have anyone dropping out - some of Bernie's advantage is he has such a high-floor due to his locked in base of supports that if the whole field continues to stay in (and Bloomberg arrives to further fracture the moderate voters) - he is in the best position to end with the highest percentage of votes.
The model overall shows that right now he's the inside track for a majority of pledged delegates, but the second most likely scenario is no one reaches that majority and the convention is contested.
All of that lines up with the current data - but post Iowa polls, and polls in each state as the primaries approach, will rapidly change things and the model will react accordingly
It's fairly obvious you've been digging into the conspiracy theory rubbish bin, and refusing to hear otherwise, so yeah.
I think that track record kinda outweighs any "fierce compassion," considering it involved directly undermining the Obama administration's attempts to de-escalate the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, which he considered "crucifying himself on a small cross."
If Biden is a changed man, I'll need more than that.
So when are the "conspiratorial thinking" bans going to come for people pushing Russia hysteria/conspiracies?
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