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Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
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mztik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,258
Tokyo, Japan
Releasing the partial results allows Pete to be the winner of Iowa and everything that entails. He'll get positive press coverage, name recognition, and his reputation will improve as the temporary winner. Based on today's news cycle I am certain more people know who Pete Buttigieg is than ever before and this is going to benefit him nationally. If Pete is still the winner when the final results come out then it won't matter. But if somebody else wins they, Buttigieg will have seen all the public benefit to the win without actually winning and the actual winner will likely get nothing. They will be a footnote at the end of Pete's media buzz. I would be very surprised if the eventual winner gets even a fraction of the coverage Pete has gotten.

Unless the turnaround is real quick I don't think it matters anymore who actually wins. Pete won Iowa now. Iowa was always about the narrative more than the numbers. The narrative is set.

If they don't release more numbers today, then definitely seems like intentional. Nevertheless, lets hope they release more numbers soon.
 

Damaniel

The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,535
Portland, OR
So let's say they come in and Bernie gets a majority from Des Moines, Davenport, and Cedar Rapids.

Is it mathematically probable for him to come out ahead?

Not unless those remaining results come from a large number of caucus sites in those cities. Pete has a delegate lead due to a lot of wins in small, rural caucus sites - huge vote wins in a smaller number of urban caucus sites don't matter as much to the delegate count. It's just like the electoral college in that it disproportionately represents rural interests over urban ones.

Overall, I don't see the results changing much when everything is counted - Bernie will have a small vote win, Pete will have a small delegate win, and neither will gain or lose much as a result.
 

Deleted member 11626

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,199
Pete stands no chance in the general. There's a reason he's been criticized so hard by black folks in Indiana. That shit about him firing a black police chief for disciplining prejudiced white cops will come back up, and kill any shot at earning support.


Oh why so low with black voters? Because he is gay?!

What the fuck
 

Deleted member 58401

User requested account closure
Banned
Jul 7, 2019
895
You're right this is totally normal and not suspicious at all. Not like there was a recent unreleased poll that creates a bit of a trend or anything.
The Register poll is a big deal, but given everyone here is complaining about partial results and a lack of clarity, I don't think releasing a compromised poll that multiple campaigns wanted pulled would have been the right move for a print dinosaur to try. Or any outlet with a modicum of integrity.
 
Oct 26, 2017
17,363
Oh why so low with black voters? Because he is gay?!

images
 

BossAttack

Member
Oct 27, 2017
42,958
My reaction anytime Pete says he does anything to support Black issues or will do so:

700.gif


Maybe, just maybe, that's why he's at 0% with the black community.
 

Deleted member 18360

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,844
The Register poll is a big deal, but given everyone here is complaining about partial results and a lack of clarity, I don't think releasing a compromised poll that multiple campaigns wanted pulled would have been the right move for a print dinosaur to try. Or any outlet with a modicum of integrity.

The trend I'm taking about is just the general air of suspicion or horrible lack of transparency. Pointing out that the Iowa Democrats have their own internal political motivations isn't conspiracy theory it's noting plausible albeit dirty political strategy.
 

Crocodile

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,071
Will all of the "this is clearly a plot to make Pete look like the winner" people be checking back when we get the final results and they're pretty much the same? (Or maybe have Pete taking the final vote totals, too?)

It's mild-to-moderately irresponsible to be releasing partial numbers like this so far in advance, but if you look at where the numbers are coming from, it seems like a pretty even cut from across the state. Do people even bother looking at the results before making conclusions? (I know the answer.)

Nah victim complex is too strong. When everything doesn't 100% go your way (even if its going 90% your way) it has to be because someone is cheating you *rolls eyes*
 
Oct 25, 2017
21,442
Sweden
paradoxically, pete being seen as the winner could be good for bernie. if pete is seen as viable, i think he'll mainly pull voters from biden, but not so many from bernie
 

SaintBowWow

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,082
I'm glad that the Biden hype proved to be media-made, as many to the left of him were saying. Between the two, I'm way more comfortable voting for Mayor Pete. As much as I think it's a cop-out policy, Medicare for Some, Kinda is better than nothing. I am prepared to vote Buttigieg if I have to but to me, he's like the Marco Rubio of the Democratic field this time around. Super rehearsed, has one talking point for everything, can't really think on his feet too well in debates, and frankly, I think Trump will completely destroy him.

This whole process has been a complete fucking joke and it's super shifty that Buttigieg boasted an early victory before an app partially funded by Buttigieg's CAMPAIGN got bungled. It's probably nothing but why the fuck can't these people just keep their money out of it? The DNC must've known they'd use this app to tally the votes and the optics of this are so poor.

To be clear - this is false. We know his campaign gave Shadow $50k for something 7 months ago. The app isn't the only thing this company has ever created and the app was only developed in the last two months. A political campaign purchasing a service from a political software development company isn't necessarily nefarious.
 

Ando

Member
Apr 21, 2018
744
biden's dismal performance among white voters is the real story here.

im not convinced the bread price fixer has a roadmap to victory, and while the iowa democratic parties incompetence has eroded trust in the system i don't think the next weeks media cycle damages sanders really (sanders opening up lead over warren, more chaos among the centrist candidates)
 

Deleted member 58401

User requested account closure
Banned
Jul 7, 2019
895
The trend I'm taking about is just the general air of suspicion or horrible lack of transparency. Pointing out that the Iowa Democrats have their own internal political motivations isn't conspiracy theory it's plausible albeit dirty political strategy.
Honestly, I'm not sure what you're talking about - I was only talking about that poll. It sucks for the paper. Those things cost like $100k at a minimum. Not nothing for a newspaper that does 5 of them, and I was proud (as a subscriber) they said no to putting it out.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
If rural white voters aren't concerned about it, then I imagine that black voters aren't either. Pete's problem is specifically related to his horrible history/issues on matters of race, which voters of color *do* care about.

Which perfectly explains why the runaway leader with black voters is...*blink* Joe Biden *blink*

Pete isn't doing well with black voters for the same reason Yang, Warren, and every other non-Biden & Bernie candidate is doing badly with black voters - they have no base of black voters to chase after. The truth is, your average black voter, especially the average black male voter, based on polling, actual history of whom black voters choose to vote for, etc., they likely has a lot of views on crime that many people on here would find supremely un-woke.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Let's see how long it takes them to update the numbers. Their tone in responding to the question of a timeline gave me zero confidence.
Do you think they're happy about having their fuck-up be a constant news story? Do you think that they're happy that the person that was in charge of the state election is probably getting booted from his job for this and he'll be known as the person that destroyed one of his state's main money-makers, being first in the nation? Like, c'mon.
 

Tfritz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,258
i guess i don't know how to explain to y'all that Pete Claiming He Won Iowa, But Then When The Full Results Came In It Turns Out He Did Not Win Iowa is not a good story for Pete and it's not something you'd be able to bury either.

Does Sanders have a shot to leapfrog Butti?

maybe, but it's close enough that it's probably not going to matter much in terms of actual DeleGets.
 

Pop-O-Matic

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
12,863
"Black people don't like Mayor Pete because he's gay!" has got to be the dumbest take that's been regularly parroted during these primaries, and that's saying a lot considering all the dumb shit people have been saying today...
 

Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,596
I'm...actually pretty happy about Buttigieg doing better? Isn't that going to pull more from Biden than from Sanders? I think it increases Sanders' chances, personally.

Could be wrong, but I'm for it.
 

ZedLilIndPum

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,999
I'm quite curious how this impacts Bloomberg. A Sanders win + very bad Biden showing is probably his ideal scenario.
 

Ayahuasca

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
1,456
Warren played her lie about Bernie right. Her supporters who want you to think Bernie is their second choice really didnt vote that way when asked to realign from what I reviewed in that google doc data. Kept Bernie's final vote numbers down. I'm sure he won't pick her for VP.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
I'm...actually pretty happy about Buttigieg doing better? Isn't that going to pull more from Biden than from Sanders? I think it increases Sanders' chances, personally.

Could be wrong, but I'm for it.
538's prediction accounted for this outcome. If Butti wins, Sanders in second Biden has a 10% higher chance of taking the nom than Sanders. I mean, it's better than Biden winning but that doesn't look like it was in the cards.
 
Oct 25, 2017
8,257
The Cyclone State
Top 3 are all that really matter folks. Remember, these candidates get delegates, so Pete edging out Bernie in our very white, moderate state doesn't mean much. Bernie has bigger recognition elsewhere.
 

XMonkey

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,827
They supported rule changes to induce states to eliminate caucuses in favour of primaries.



Not sure what more was to be done by Bernie to get rid of caucuses.
Do you have anything else showing Sanders wanted to get rid of caucuses in favor of primaries? Wanting them to be more transparent and accessible doesn't strike me as "we want to get rid of these".
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Bernie is supposed to win NH and Navada is a caucus so who knows what the hell is going to happen.

SC is the real test for Biden and Pete.
 
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