So let's say they come in and Bernie gets a majority from Des Moines, Davenport, and Cedar Rapids.
Is it mathematically probable for him to come out ahead?
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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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So let's say they come in and Bernie gets a majority from Des Moines, Davenport, and Cedar Rapids.
Is it mathematically probable for him to come out ahead?
User Banned (1 Month): Perpetuating Harmful Stereotypes Surrounding Race
Ok.. is it that bad in the south huh
Oh why so low with black voters? Because he is gay?!
Nate Cohn was saying the districts that would favor Bernie have already mostly reported in.
First - Don't try to understand US politics by reading ResetEra
Second - We're only working with 62% of the data so we don't really know who won definitively yet but do know who did pretty well and who did pretty bad
Sorry if this has been answered, but I have two questions on that front:
1) How much overlap, in terms of which precinct data was released, is there between the Sanders campaign's numbers and the latest numbers?
2) Within the overlapping precincts, is there a big discrepancy between the numbers released by the Sanders campaign and those released by the DNC released?
I just can't wrap my head around the big discrepancy between what Sanders released and what the DNC released, given that they both have the same %age of precincts released so far.
The full results are gonna be reported but I think it'll be similar to how a correction to a story often gets far less attention than the originally incorrect story gets. Especially with SOTU/impeachment looming.
At the end of the day I don't think these Iowa results are gonna matter too much (as far as Buttigieg or Bernie winning goes) but I think the way the Iowa Democratic Party is handling the release is pretty irresponsible.
Reminder that the Warren campaign thought only final results should be released.
Buttigieg and Sanders campaign were fine with partial.
Buttigieg and Sanders campaign were fine with partial.
obviously I'm not concerned about myself. I'm concerned people will in general not vote because they'll be partying.
I think we'll see them by Friday at this rate, and even if the results change, the media will just go "Oh. How about that," after Pete is given a weird victory lap before attention shifts to NH.
Half of Polk and Scott County have been counted. Bernie was doing very well in the precincts I was watching in the city of Davenport, and Polk is Des Moines. So who knows? My guess is that Bernie runs up the popular vote and Buttigieg loses a little ground in delegates. The story will probably be more about Biden than anything else, but I don't see a big bounce for anyone.
Will all of the "this is clearly a plot to make Pete look like the winner" people be checking back when we get the final results and they're pretty much the same? (Or maybe have Pete taking the final vote totals, too?)
It's mild-to-moderately irresponsible to be releasing partial numbers like this so far in advance, but if you look at where the numbers are coming from, it seems like a pretty even cut from across the state. Do people even bother looking at the results before making conclusions? (I know the answer.)
It's mild-to-moderately irresponsible to be releasing partial numbers like this so far in advance, but if you look at where the numbers are coming from, it seems like a pretty even cut from across the state. Do people even bother looking at the results before making conclusions? (I know the answer.)
Is it just me or is a scenario where boomers running a state political party buy some dog shit app, do zero testing or user training, and then have it fail spectacularly not suspicious in the least?
Agreed 100%, Pete has no chance of winning over the majority of democrat's in the rest of the country. Iowa as a representation of Democrats is dumb anyways, so are caucuses.
it's part of the ongoing story of the primary election, which lasts for like four months with news outlets reiterating delegate counts daily.
Doesn't mean the info in the tweet is good. It looks more like a population map from last night.
He's young, smart, new, not too extreme, and is the best speaker of the bunch. Americans also worship Ivy League education (see every single president since the first Bush)
Unfortunately for him, even if this result holds, he's unlikely to get a huge bump from this. Bloomberg was the only winner last night sadly.
Even if this stays the result, it's not the worst result we could ever get. Bernie and Pete both say they won. Okay. Biden is the story for falling so far, and last we knew, he was basically broke. Yang disappears, Klob is sort of there? Bloomberg is pissed that Pete stole his moderate, counter-Biden thunder.
This is a great take and totally correct I think.
On to New Hampshire
I suppose one reading would be that she is unlikely to come out first here, so her campaign team is taking the high road. Not a bad tactic.
They supposedly have a paper record or more thorough records than ever and yet they're launching vague internal inquiries and giving no indication on when that final (correction) 38% will be released. If all of that is true you'd have to intentionally fuck up to not release things on a reasonable timeline. Thus it reads far more like intent imo.
I would actually put money on a bet that if you took a poll of random people and asked them to write one fact they know about Pete, that they would put "he's gay". I can't imagine 100% of black voters know enough about him to know how he did as mayor in Indiana. Hell I live like 2 hours from where he was mayor and I would have to do some major research.
because after Bernie and Warren Beto's a hell of a lot better than the rest of the field
Ew, I'll edit my post. Here it is straight from MSNBC of outstanding precincts. At 1:10.
Jeez in 20 god dam 20, America(and other countries) take ages to count some votes. Makes me angry that they are so shit at doing this.
If military uses computers which are secure then so can electoral voting systems.
If military uses computers which are secure then so can electoral voting systems.
so it's a micro electoral college vote. which is the reason Trump is in office.
Wasn't the paper trail new this year? If so...thats good.
Too early to tell that.
Why is that even suprising? Iowa's population is almost entirely in its cities.
You're basically doing this meme:
No, it's not because he is gay it's because he has a terrible track record for black people. Just look up some of his track records and controversies.
I mean, one of those is not a conspiracy theory, just an opinion.
He wasn't though his DNC appointees agreed to rule changes to induce state parties to switch to primaries.
Best news so far is that Biden is 4th. Bernie is in a great position to win New Hampshire, Nevada and getting close in South Carolina. I think he has a great chance to win the nomination.
so this chart doesn't really demonstrate anything... if the 62% we got in was fairly distributed around the state, the "remaining" precincts will still be clustered in populated areas because there are more precincts there. it does not show that there is a proportionally greater vote missing from the cities.
So you're saying that the reason he's polling at 0% is because he's gay?
But, in both cases, the details (i.e. which precincts, and the numbers within those precincts) have been released, right? Hasn't anyone tried to compare the two?
I can't find Sanders's released numbers anymore.
Weaknesses: record, authenticity, support among minorities.
I'm glad that the Biden hype proved to be media-made, as many to the left of him were saying. Between the two, I'm way more comfortable voting for Mayor Pete. As much as I think it's a cop-out policy, Medicare for Some, Kinda is better than nothing. I am prepared to vote Buttigieg if I have to but to me, he's like the Marco Rubio of the Democratic field this time around. Super rehearsed, has one talking point for everything, can't really think on his feet too well in debates, and frankly, I think Trump will completely destroy him.
This whole process has been a complete fucking joke and it's super shifty that Buttigieg boasted an early victory before an app partially funded by Buttigieg's CAMPAIGN got bungled. It's probably nothing but why the fuck can't these people just keep their money out of it? The DNC must've known they'd use this app to tally the votes and the optics of this are so poor.
This whole process has been a complete fucking joke and it's super shifty that Buttigieg boasted an early victory before an app partially funded by Buttigieg's CAMPAIGN got bungled. It's probably nothing but why the fuck can't these people just keep their money out of it? The DNC must've known they'd use this app to tally the votes and the optics of this are so poor.
Hang on I'm almost done putting on my tinfoil hat so I can criticize Pete.
Yes, for everything beyond the final results. Which also makes me wonder if there's been these kind of mistakes in the past and we just didn't know any better.
It was released minutes ago. I'm not entirely sure that Sanders' released precinct by precinct data rather than the aggregate.
I was watching msnbc when this was up and Kornacki said it was a map of outstanding results.
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