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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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I dont know what world John Kerry thinks he is in, but if he really thinks he would be the "savior", he wouldn't even save the dem party. Only late jump in that could really be a good threat for the Dem field and a possibility to win the General is Michelle Obama, and that aint happening.
Edit: Eating the crow. Honostly when I first read the article I was like "how in the world", but yeah, Kerry knew better. Wish these click bait articles wouldn't go out all the time.
Edit: Eating the crow. Honostly when I first read the article I was like "how in the world", but yeah, Kerry knew better. Wish these click bait articles wouldn't go out all the time.
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LOL you just have to laugh at this point. It's fake, but I have no doubt the frustration is setting in there and some people are probably suggesting crazy/stupid ideas.
Looking forward to some weak moderate Dem getting pushed over Bernie, elected, then Republicans getting the office right back in four years so we can get moderates blaming everyone left of them again for not co-operating to defeat the greater evil and repeating the cycle indefinitely as the GOP continues to drag everyone further to the right.
User Warned: Conspiracy theorizing
The DNC is getting desperate. Mark my words, changing the caucus locations 72 before the start will not be the last fuckery to happen.
IN NO WAY ARE THEIR MORALS/POSITIONS THE SAME:
but, Bernie really is the trump of the democrats this primary.
and trump went on to win the whole thing (and ultimately destroy the Republican Party)*
-both claimed as outsiders
-both lost a previous primary
-both run a "everything is horrible and Only you through me can fix it" campaign
-both hated by their respective establishments
-both competing against more pragmatic counterparts within the same party (Cruz/Warren)
-both have huge rallies
-both have die hard fans with eyes for no one else
* I hope Bernie doesn't do what trump has done to R party
but, Bernie really is the trump of the democrats this primary.
and trump went on to win the whole thing (and ultimately destroy the Republican Party)*
-both claimed as outsiders
-both lost a previous primary
-both run a "everything is horrible and Only you through me can fix it" campaign
-both hated by their respective establishments
-both competing against more pragmatic counterparts within the same party (Cruz/Warren)
-both have huge rallies
-both have die hard fans with eyes for no one else
* I hope Bernie doesn't do what trump has done to R party
If this means the Democrat party gets pushed left, then that's a good thing.
Bernie, Warren, AOC, etc. are the future.
I mean some of these are true, but Bernie is in no way an only I can fix it candidate. He explicitly rejects that, movement based politics is the opposite of it.
The campaigns slogan is literally not me, us.
I meant push them out of the mainstream (they lost KENTUCKY AND LOUSIANA and all those 2018 seats)
He's mask off
And that only works in some places.
If y'all haven't been lying attention, 2018 and other small election since 2016 have gone for Dems by like way more than expected
Do you think if Trump loses this election, the Republicans will give up their calls for far-right sentiments in the next one?
I mean Obama lost 63 seats his first midterm Clinton lost 54. We won 40 in 2018. Thats hardly evidence of the collapse of the Republican Party. If we only lost 40 seats in 2022 it would be disastrous obviously due to losing our majority, but also par for the course (actually a bit better than recent dem presidents).
Nope. Even if he dont run the fact that hes out here complaining and bidens team is complaining back at him reeks of shook insecurity about their chances in iowa
If Trump loses, I expect the republicans to mount countless lawsuits to interfere with the results.
fun game: look through here and see how many apply to barack obama in 2008
- he was called "an outsider" in 2008 very frequently
- he did not begin as the candidate of "the establishment" (although they, admittedly, didn't hate him - they just preferred clinton)
- he was running against a "more pragmatic counterpart within the same party" in clinton
- he had huge rallies
- he had die hard fans with eyes for no one else
I think they'll go mask-on like they used to.
Dog whistles everywhere. Easier to sell yourself like that
The super Tuesday and "firewall" route doesn't really work this time because California is so early. It is basically the biggest state in the primary and closest to the dem party's ideology. If the polling is true, Bernie will appear the winner of super Tuesday, depending on how many smaller states he gets. Bernie can get California, Biden can get Texas, and each split the remaining smaller states. And from there, we enter into a long stretch where Bernie will probably continuously win.
The South is pretty delegate rich. If he can't win enough from down there California won't matter.
Trump has not destroyed the gop party. He has simply taken the mask off. They were like this long before he came into the picture.
Bernie is the face of a movement that wants to actually destroy the dem party. And remake it in an image people dont actually feel like they have to be shamed into supporting for lack of alternatives. Not just him but the entire progressive apparatus has aligned around that cause. He is simply the face. Sanders being in the white house is opening the door, its not the final goal. Unlike other campaigns i could name like biden or pete.
Well they ran "mask-on" candidates in 2008 and 2012 and they lost. So I'm not as confident in that. I think we will simply see people pushing further left and further right as the years go on.
I don't think a Bernie/Trump comparison has any value without being extremely carefully contextualized as to what you are trying to suggest.
For example, I think the 2016 GOP and 2020 Dem primaries are quite comparable in the context of institutional degradation, as in both cases, despite a surfeit of establishment candidates, the parties were unable to unify around one candidate or control the primary effectively as they had done in the past, allowing a candidate dispreferred by the party elite to take a strong position. Obviously the flaw in this comparison is that Biden, for all his flaws, is no Jeb or Rubio — yet.
For example, I think the 2016 GOP and 2020 Dem primaries are quite comparable in the context of institutional degradation, as in both cases, despite a surfeit of establishment candidates, the parties were unable to unify around one candidate or control the primary effectively as they had done in the past, allowing a candidate dispreferred by the party elite to take a strong position. Obviously the flaw in this comparison is that Biden, for all his flaws, is no Jeb or Rubio — yet.
Alabama (52) - Biden
Arkansas (31) - Biden
California (415) - Bernie
Colorado (67) - Bernie
Maine (24) - Bernie
Massachusetts (91) - Warren
Minnesota 75 - Wanna say Amy if she is still trying to this point, if not, Bernie.
North Carolina (110) - Biden
Oklahoma (37) - Bernie
Tennessee (64) - Biden
Texas (228) - Biden
Utah (29) - Bernie
Vermont (16) - Bernie
Virginia (99) - Biden
This of course is my brief and not as "in the know" perspective, but I imagine super tuesday comes out like this. Guess delegate count all depends on if Bernie isn't viable in some of the southern states. He seems to be doing better this time around, but I doubt he ends up winning those states, but he might be able to remain viable.
Arkansas (31) - Biden
California (415) - Bernie
Colorado (67) - Bernie
Maine (24) - Bernie
Massachusetts (91) - Warren
Minnesota 75 - Wanna say Amy if she is still trying to this point, if not, Bernie.
North Carolina (110) - Biden
Oklahoma (37) - Bernie
Tennessee (64) - Biden
Texas (228) - Biden
Utah (29) - Bernie
Vermont (16) - Bernie
Virginia (99) - Biden
This of course is my brief and not as "in the know" perspective, but I imagine super tuesday comes out like this. Guess delegate count all depends on if Bernie isn't viable in some of the southern states. He seems to be doing better this time around, but I doubt he ends up winning those states, but he might be able to remain viable.
Rumors like Hillary thinking rerunning, Obama personally pushing for alternatives, the whole "let's see if we can change convention rules", etc.
They all sound like the most ridiculous conspiratorial theories. And thankfully, ended up being denied.
But Hillary did needlessly openly attack Bernie (interview and in her book).
Obama did favor (behind closed doors) Corey Booker. And there is that alleged comment that either of them winning, would be a 'rejection' to his legacy.
Bloomberg did enter.
An AIPAC-affiliated group did release an Ad targeting him just days ago.
It kind of makes you wonder.
They all sound like the most ridiculous conspiratorial theories. And thankfully, ended up being denied.
But Hillary did needlessly openly attack Bernie (interview and in her book).
Obama did favor (behind closed doors) Corey Booker. And there is that alleged comment that either of them winning, would be a 'rejection' to his legacy.
Bloomberg did enter.
An AIPAC-affiliated group did release an Ad targeting him just days ago.
It kind of makes you wonder.
Lets go bernieeeeee
why is hillary even talking. she's just going to give him more front page news. all their shady shit is backfiring.
yeah they are out to get him for sure. idk about all the conspiracy theories but all these corporations, billionaires and people with influence are worried they will lose their millions. and we already see what kind of backdoor shit went down in 2016.
why is hillary even talking. she's just going to give him more front page news. all their shady shit is backfiring.
They aren't worried immediately, since basically the GOP will block everything Warren or Bernie try to do. It is more about blocking there message being said by the president. And Bernie would be much more vocal about changing congress.
Besides, the idea that there is a big conpiracy isnt well grounded. Too many factors in play that are independent from each other.
Clinton getting needlessly snippy by parroting back stuff Bernie's supporters said about her in 2016;
Obama, a private citizen, preferring one candidate to others;
Someone else dared to enter the race and challenge Bernie's coronation;
A lobbying group attacked someone who is very clear on his position re: Lobbying Being Bad
it really makes u think.....
i think it'd just be good to understand that other people running for president of the united states, a position that is widely regarded as one of the most powerful in the entire world, aren't necessarily doing it as part of a grand conspiracy against bernie sanders
i think after bernie's surge this week the possibilities are endless on the slander incoming bernies way. from all sides.
If that SC poll showing Biden 25%, Bernie 20%, Steyer 18% is anywhere close to reality, and if Bernie pulls off the trifecta of IA/NH/NV, I think he may be able to sway enough southern voters to stay competitive. He won't win the southern states, but he might still be able to avoid getting blown out in the delegate count.
All comes down to tomorrow!
Change Research is "throw away" tier. Fox had it at 36-15 3 weeks ago... Sure, there's been some momentum for Bernie, but I doubt it's enough for a big shift like that.
Yeah, at this point it doesn't seem like Biden is going to do quite as well in the South vs Bernie as Clinton did, but it's still so early and the field hasn't narrowed, so who knows.
If Steyer wins SC this race is going to be interesting, could greatly increase the chance of a contested convention I think.
It's weird to me people are quoting this C rated poll, when a C+ rated poll just a week ago had Biden 44 Sanders 15 Steyer 12. The last reliable poll was the Fox one, 3 weeks ago, with Biden 36 Steyer 15 Sanders 15.
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