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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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There was a moment when i checked the vox link that it dropped to 4k or so. but it seems volatile.
Why, both Iowa and NH are terrible representations of the dem base
How does this explain a mayor and two other senators beating Joe Biden?
someone being argued as the electability candidate polling fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire is terrible. He might pick himself back up, but a major assumption that was sucking oxygen from other candidates is now gone
You're absolutely right, Biden is still a threat. That said, I don't think anybody foresaw him performing this poorly in the north.
Look at the graph again.
Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
Interesting data from exit polls (via 538) - looks like 2016 Bernie voters aren't really showing up? He got 60% of the vote last time, so like half of his voters just didn't bother coming out. Did they think it was all locked up or something? Very strange.
www.resetera.com
Sanders won 60% of the vote in 2016. In the exit polls only 30% of the voters said they voted for Sanders in 2016, while 50% said they voted for Clinton. Where are the rest of the Sanders supporters?
The current votes and number of candidates are irrelevant. Even if Sanders had 99% of the vote and was the only candidate 2016 Sanders voters would STILL be missing. So turnout for Sanders should have been better.
If anything this is a positive for Sanders because he should get more support in NH in the general than he is during the primary.
Yes. He beat Hillary by 22%. He's going to win this night by ~5%.
Still its always good when you win but I don't buy him as a heavy favorite the way the betting markets do, hes still probably trailing Pete so far in delegates after tonight.
As I recall the more urban districts report later in the evening because they have way more work to do than the small rural districts that have reported so far. If you're worried about Bernie's lead or trying to predict how this will play out, just remember that many young, urban votes are not on the boards yet.
Is this legit?
If so, yesssss. Really hope he widens his lead over Pete
Well, Sanders fan, enjoy the next five months of getting buried in hundreds of millions of dollars in ads by Bloomberg, and being called sexists by a female candidate who has no reason not to go full blowtorch during the primary. The fact the final 3 'moderates' will be Bloomberg, Pete, and Klob instead of Beto, Booker, and Harris sure says a lot.
Sad that a friend of hers is getting thrown under the bus and attacked for this, when he was her biggest supporter in 16 telling her to run. Really upsetting to hear her saying this shit.
huh? you misinterpreted my post. it has nothing to do with the state. biden has a long relationship with the black voter base of the party but has done nothing to deserve the minority support he does get.
now he's running off there as his firewall. it's slimy
The most diabolical piece of rigging the caucus was that it killed the momentum a candidate usually wants out of Iowa. Truly a masterstroke of deception.
Anyway, on a different topic: the media sure loves Klobuchar suddenly. If she lasts, she'll be their fault. How the hell is she beating Liz?
Well sure but I mean when he's competing with fucking Pete and Bloomberg....
I dunno, but I expected Bernie to win by a larger margin, but we'll see. Pete seems to be doing okay in Bernie-land along the Vermont-NH border.
Last time if you were a progressive, disliked Clinton, or just didn't want a dynasty candidate to be anointed, Sanders was your only choice. Some people were hardcore Sanders fans, but the majority were just 'not Clinton, for various reasons' votes.
This time all those people have options.
yes, true. they're all equally as terrible.
which is why i desperately hope bernie tries and goes there. he'll break through eventually. they just need to trust that he can beat trump. and the polling backs up that he can.
LMFAO hell no.
biden's terrible and i hope he gets his lunch eaten in south carolina
People like 8 days ago weren't even saying he had a path going forward in these -first 2 contests-.
A lot of shit can change quickly. First it was Pete, then it was Klob. Nothing would surprise me at this point.
That's not what the graph is showing!
Clinton voters from 2016 are significantly outnumbering Sanders supporters from 2016 even though Sanders won that race by 60%. That indicates the Sanders 2016 base didn't turnout. Again, assuming that graph is accurate.
And like I said in the edit, that's not even a bad thing for Sanders because he's still about to win NH and still has a lot of support that didn't show today.
nobody was saying that. pete has been competitive in the first two contests, especially iowa, forever.
Pete's a sociopath. It will not benefit anyone to take him on as VP.
no they absolutely were not, at least not those who have been paying attention. Pete was all in on Iowa and was projected to have a real shot, even leading in some early polls. The caucus format benefitted him and gave him the push he needed to just barely edge Bernie. Given the win there he got a boost in NH which made this somewhat close in NH, but Bernies win here and his terrible polling in the upcoming states will show itself.
it's not the strategy, it's the optics of relying on a black vote that he gives no shits about otherwise
Don't watch the needle. It's like being awake during surgery.
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