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Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
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Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,270
oh, also, just because we're talking about this asshole, here's a great chronicle of him being a sexist asshole from gawker (which I don't think I've ever missed as much as I do this year)

https://gawker.com/5979679/id-do-her-a-brief-history-of-michael-bloombergs-public-sexism

There is genuinely such a huge pile of things Bloomberg looks like an absolute ghoul for, and this is definitely among them. I cannot even fathom how much a third party challenge would balloon because of Bloomberg somehow getting the Democratic nomination - there's endless stories of sexist, racist, authoritarian, extremely anti-poor classist shit like wanting to fingerprint and catalogue people seeking housing assistance, and more. I just find him utterly repugnant on every single level and cannot fathom how anyone who considers themselves progressive could carry water for him.
 
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Eeyore

User requested ban
Banned
Dec 13, 2019
9,029
President Kevin McCarthy

This is what I say to that ass clown:
giphy.gif
 

Deleted member 28564

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,604
Bernie didn't actually do well in Iowa, is the thing. He won in the final alignment by like 1% or so. And the realignments in Iowa show more that Warren-Butti-Biden-Klobs is where the majority are. But Bernie can win it if flavor of the week continues splitting things
Right, that's true. But I don't think anyone could have predicted, reliably, that Sanders would do as well as he has a few months ago. I think it's important to remember that many of these flavours have distinct disadvantages compared to Sanders, while he enjoys the additional benefit of being a frontrunner throughout the first few contests and Super Tuesday, while the 'alternative choice' is still unclear (as Nate pointed out a short while ago).

For example, Buttigieg has predominantly white support vs Sanders's additional, sizeable non-white support. Bloomberg is at a disadvantage, because the media narrative is going to follow whoever 'won' (by whatever metric) the first bundle of states.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
Wasnt today the first national poll Bernie led?

I arrive at that conclusion because bernie has heldsteady at 20-25 percent for a year, meanwhile 20 something people split the other 75, people would rather jump to a flavor of the week than Bernie it seems
Regardless this is almost exactly how Trump won his primary. As long as that coalition of not Bernie fails to vote for the same candidate in sufficient numbers (Trump had 3 different "challengers" after Jeb was slaughtered during the first debate) then Bernie is going to win this. Thankfully Bernie despite the angst he naturally gets out of centrists and moderates he has personally avoided attacking them outright which is why his likability rating within the party is over 70%.

Even more thankfully than that he is the total antithesis of Trump so by virtue of being the President without doing anything yet he will bring a lot of relief to people.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
Regardless this is almost exactly how Trump won his primary. As long as that coalition of not Bernie fails to vote for the same candidate in sufficient numbers (Trump had 3 different "challengers" after Jeb was slaughtered during the first debate) then Bernie is going to win this. Thankfully Bernie despite the angst he naturally gets out of centrists and moderates he has personally avoided attacking them outright which is why his likability rating within the party is over 70%.

Even more thankfully than that he is the total antithesis of Trump so by virtue of being the President without doing anything yet he will bring a lot of relief to people.
But that's assuming Bernie is where democrats secretly want to go.
Trump was where all republicans have always wanted to go, a white only country, so they said fuck yea we will fall in line.

I'm not too sure all democrats want to pay way more in taxes and have more government in their lives to the level that democratic socialists propose.
 

JABEE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,854
Bernie is in great shape! Up 7 over Biden in the National Polls. Damn impressive with Biden collapsing.
 

electricblue

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,991
But that's assuming Bernie is where democrats secretly want to go.
Trump was where all republicans have always wanted to go, a white only country, so they said fuck yea we will fall in line.

I'm not too sure all democrats want to pay way more in taxes and have more government in their lives to the level that democratic socialists propose.

It won't happen in any case so really what you're signing up for is a sane person at the helm in foreign policy and immigration
 

JABEE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,854
Also, someone said yesterday we were getting a national poll with Bernie up by 6 points today. I'm not sure if the number was off and this was it or if we are getting another poll.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
But that's assuming Bernie is where democrats secretly want to go.
Trump was where all republicans have always wanted to go, a white only country, so they said fuck yea we will fall in line.

I'm not too sure all democrats want to pay way more in taxes and have more government in their lives to the level that democratic socialists propose.
That point is irrelevant. A majority of primary voters did try to avoid Trump but there so many options they failed to push any single one over him. And it's not like Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio weren't pushing racist agendas themselves. They just had that veneer of respectability Trump lacked.

Falling in line for the nominee in the general is what was expected of them and we among ourselves expect our party members to fall in line around whoever is the candidate.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
Only if you were already predisposed to read the data in the least favorable way towards Sanders.
How else can you read it!
The man is stuck between 20-27 percent nationally. Anytime someone ducks up, he barely picks up their second choice vote. Fact is he is sssssupppper popular with the people that already like him.
he's not growing, in fact he's shrunk from 2016
 

Deleted member 46493

User requested account closure
Banned
Aug 7, 2018
5,231
Some data from California is coming out, in raw format:

twitter.com

CA120 on Twitter

“Big movement in the @Capitol_Weekly Presidential Primary Tracking Poll! @BernieSanders pulling even further ahead, at the expense of @ewarren who clings to second place. A big gain for @MikeBloomberg and @PeteButtigieg, who is on the cusp of getting statewide delegates.”

Link to data.

One of the interesting things I saw:

California hispanics:
Bernie: 39%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 8%
Bloomberg: 8%
Biden: 7%

Still digging through it though.
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
Until Bloomberg buys out a Brokered Convention
It's blatantly obvious that Warren and Sanders have avoided attacking each other for as long as possible because they have a deal to push one of them over in a brokered convention. I strongly suspect that conversation Warren had with Sanders was one of those conversations and she's doubly sore that her position in the polls hasn't put her in the position to win no matter what.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
I just want to state something: I'm not anti Bernie, in fact I was destroyed in 2016 when he lost, and then ran over with a truck when Clinton lost. I'm just anti Bernie-is-the-only-good-choice-and-will-win-everything.
some of y'all think that he's guaranteed this nom, and facts is nothing is guaranteed for any of these candidates, and they would all be good nominee
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
Some data from California is coming out, in raw format:

twitter.com

CA120 on Twitter

“Big movement in the @Capitol_Weekly Presidential Primary Tracking Poll! @BernieSanders pulling even further ahead, at the expense of @ewarren who clings to second place. A big gain for @MikeBloomberg and @PeteButtigieg, who is on the cusp of getting statewide delegates.”

Link to data.

One of the interesting things I saw:

California hispanics:
Bernie: 39%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 8%
Bloomberg: 8%
Biden: 7%

Still digging through it though.
Curious to see how neighboring Nevada plays out since we rarely get polls from Nevada.
 

Mekanos

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 17, 2018
44,176

Deleted member 28564

User-requested account closure
Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,604
I just want to state something: I'm not anti Bernie, in fact I was destroyed in 2016 when he lost, and then ran over with a truck when Clinton lost. I'm just anti Bernie-is-the-only-good-choice-and-will-win-everything.
some of y'all think that he's guaranteed this nom, and facts is nothing is guaranteed for any of these candidates, and they would all be good nominee
I didn't actually seriously consider Sanders until a few months ago. I had mostly just hoped and prayed for a miracle that either Sanders or Warren would manage to win this thing. Then he started picking up, and it seemed a bit more likely. And then Iowa happened, and Biden's flop caught me by surprise. I had suspected, but mostly hoped, that Buttigieg would perform well in Iowa, giving him a surge for the next contest in New Hampshire (at the cost of Biden), but not to the extent we've seen. I also didn't think Klobuchar would throw a binder at him (Pete) on the debate stage and hurt him as effectively as she has.

I'm not totally counting other candidates out yet, though. I just think Bernie has the best shot of succeeding.
 

Rewind

Member
Oct 27, 2017
569
How else can you read it!
The man is stuck between 20-27 percent nationally. Anytime someone ducks up, he barely picks up their second choice vote. Fact is he is sssssupppper popular with the people that already like him.
he's not growing, in fact he's shrunk from 2016

People literally said the same thing a couple months ago, but that he was stuck between 15 and 20 percent. He's obviously growing, and has been surging now for the past couple months.
 

Deleted member 46493

User requested account closure
Banned
Aug 7, 2018
5,231
To be fair I don't think I've seen any Sanders group or community thinking we'll win FL. Latino outreach is focused on NV, CA, and TX among others.
 

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,786
I just want to state something: I'm not anti Bernie, in fact I was destroyed in 2016 when he lost, and then ran over with a truck when Clinton lost. I'm just anti Bernie-is-the-only-good-choice-and-will-win-everything.
some of y'all think that he's guaranteed this nom, and facts is nothing is guaranteed for any of these candidates, and they would all be good nominee
Who is saying that? People are saying he has a good chance and you're insistent he has hardly any chance. You've done this in multiple threads now.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
Think it's pretty safe to assume we're not picking up Ohio, Texas and Florida no matter who the GE nominee is.
 

Deleted member 4346

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,976
LOL I can't believe someone posted that Bloomberg is likable. He's not. He's got a lot of the same baggage as Trump without the charm or the occasional addled genius moments or the baldfaced incivility which distinguishes Trump from the professional political class. Bloomberg might lead in the national polls in a head-to-head but I'd be terrified of him losing to Trump in the Rust Belt states that the GOP swept in 2016. You'd rather have Biden in that case.

If it comes down to Sanders versus Bloomberg that's a good vs. evil battle for the soul of the nation, it truly is.

I wouldn't vote for Bloomberg under any circumstances. If you can just bully and buy your way to the presidency then we are fucked.
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,132
Sydney
You can't figure out ceilings in a race where 11 people are still in after Iowa.

I'm not sure why people are pretending that dynamic will hold for months and months to create the conditions for a contested convention unless they don't think more people are going to drop out.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
cause that rebuttal doesn't make sense. Yes there's more candidates now, but if he was such a strong candidate as y'all claim, why are people so willing to pick someone else over him?
if you think this is even scarcely resembles a good response, i am at a loss for words as to what to say.

anyway vote bluenomatterwho. Bernie 2020 god bless
 

daschysta

Member
Mar 24, 2019
893
a
Yes exactly and that's why we're probably headed to a brokered convention in which it will be important we all fall in line and not cry cause our fav didn't get the nom
If the candidate leading in delegates doesn't get the nom there is going to be hell to pay. Party unity after that will be a fantasy and Trump will win.
 

fontguy

Avenger
Oct 8, 2018
16,154
LOL I can't believe someone posted that Bloomberg is likable. He's not. He's got a lot of the same baggage as Trump without the charm or the occasional addled genius moments or the baldfaced incivility which distinguishes Trump from the professional political class. Bloomberg might lead in the national polls in a head-to-head but I'd be terrified of him losing to Trump in the Rust Belt states that the GOP swept in 2016. You'd rather have Biden in that case.

If it comes down to Sanders versus Bloomberg that's a good vs. evil battle for the soul of the nation, it truly is.

I wouldn't vote for Bloomberg under any circumstances. If you can just bully and buy your way to the presidency then we are fucked.

Not likable? How can you deny charisma like this?



Just wait til he tweets about chilling in Cedar Rapids.
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,287
wherever
Some data from California is coming out, in raw format:

twitter.com

CA120 on Twitter

“Big movement in the @Capitol_Weekly Presidential Primary Tracking Poll! @BernieSanders pulling even further ahead, at the expense of @ewarren who clings to second place. A big gain for @MikeBloomberg and @PeteButtigieg, who is on the cusp of getting statewide delegates.”

Link to data.

One of the interesting things I saw:

California hispanics:
Bernie: 39%
Warren: 16%
Buttigieg: 8%
Bloomberg: 8%
Biden: 7%

Still digging through it though.

Biden is so done
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
You can't figure out ceilings in a race where 11 people are still in after Iowa.

I'm not sure why people are pretending that dynamic will hold for months and months to create the conditions for a contested convention unless they don't think more people are going to drop out.
Warren and Biden will run out of money, Bloombeg will carpet bomb dollars everywhere
 

medinaria

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,544
Think it's pretty safe to assume we're not picking up Ohio, Texas and Florida no matter who the GE nominee is.

I strongly disagree with one of those, and somewhat jokingly disagree on a second

ohio is 100% available, and I think the evergreen support of sherrod brown is proof. I live in ohio, so I probably see this dynamic a bit more than most, but sherrod brown keeps winning even in "bad" democratic years because he talks about labor. he talks about unions, he talks about the need for better trade deals, he talks about hard work etc. if sanders is running, I completely think he can win ohio on that message, coupled with strong support in the cities. he's believable and authentic on the issue in a way similar to brown, and in a way somewhat dissimilar from trump (and, if we're being honest, clinton).

this might be wishful thinking because I live here, and would love nothing more than to see ohio vote sanders, but I do genuinely believe it.

texas is kind of the joking one - it'd take a massive amount of turnout effort from democrats to do it, but it's theoretically feasible. doubt it happens, though.

florida's gone, and honestly, fuck florida. tired of getting fucked over by that shithole for the past two decades, the sooner we give up on it the better
 

Ziltoidia 9

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,141
Said it before, i'll say it agian.... I'll never understand how Boomberg is at 10% and people that have been running for a year are less.
 
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