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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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I think he'll continue to run ads against Trump even if he drops out. :X
It would be a declaration that they'd rather surrender the country to Trump than lose control of the party.
It's the DNC vs Bernie right now and Warren is with the DNC.
The only people I see giving Bernie delegates are Tulsi Gabbard, Tom Steyer and Andrew Yang. Everybody else is a puppet of the DNC.
I don't even know why DNC want Bernie - i guess just to prove a point that the party is moderate and not left.
somewhat worryingly, when you put it this way, it makes me feel like it's way more likely
Of course not.
But i pulled up all of Trump's tweets about Bernie, and he rarely outright attacks Bernie. Considering how many people he attacks, it feels like he doesn't want to because he respects him as a person who doesn't flip flop on his principles, or he just doesn't have that much ammo to hurt Bernie with.
He's not wrong on either of these tweets. The Dems screwed Bernie in 2016 and they have screwed him again in Iowa 2020.
They completely fixed the Iowa 2020 results to give Pete more delegates - 14 to 12 I believe it is now. It was supposed to be a tie. And Bernie had 2500 more votes after the final alignment. And now I'm supposed to believe Sanders had 5 more SDE errors than Buttigieg. How do you give Deval Patrick votes from Bernie Sanders and have people sign off on that. That's wild.
I know Bernie is not a man of retribution, but I bet Perez will be forced out when Bernie wins the General Election.
If Biden or Pete is still around when Bloomberg's polls start to rise - they will go after Bloomberg. They won't stand idly by. There's so much dirt on Bloomberg online, I doubt his money will save him.
Trump doesn't respect Bernie in any way. He just sees him and his supporters as a useful weapon to split his opposition.
Iowa was the result of a sloppy bureaucracy and nothing else. The MAGA ratfuckers are fanning the flames on conspiracy theories about the DNC because it worked in 2016 and they know it can roil the Democratic coalition. Don't fall for this shit. The minute Bernie wins the nomination, which is looking likely at this point, the entire playbook will change.
They have already with the Iowa caucus. Pete Buttigieg? Are you kidding me - just to stop Sanders?
Give it to Biden if you at least want to win. Pete has no shot.
thanks. I'm originally a NYer and don't personally have issues with Bloomberg. My family and friends who still live there are voting for him.
it's a shame he took so long to enter.
Not that I want him to win, he's not getting my primary vote, but an earlier entry would have been nice to see him break into Biden quicker and kick up his quality trump attacks sooner. If he was pumping major bucks into that, could have freed up the rest of the field to focus on their more nuanced differences
User banned (1 week) Ignoring the staff post with regards to conspiracy theories
I might be wrong here, but as a non-American, I get the jist that the DNC would rather have 4 more years of Trump than 4 years of Sanders. Nothing really would change within the party with 4 more years of Trump, while a Sanders presidency would shift things big time.
EDIT: looks like i've been wizarded already
EDIT: looks like i've been wizarded already
Taking a look ahead to South Carolina for the sake of it.
Current three poll average is:
Biden 30%
Sanders 18%
Steyer 17%
Warren 10%
Up until the end of January, Biden almost always led South Carolina by +20pts. Suddenly on 1/29 we got a poll that only had Biden up by 5 over Sanders. This was quelled pretty quickly by another poll 2/2 that had Biden up by 18 again. The next day there was another Biden poll that had him up by 8. Pulling these numbers from here: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?fips=45
So it's hard to get a sense of what's really going on. The last three polls have been super inconsistent, but two of them are the lowest Biden has ever led by. Buttigieg has not polled meaningfully in South Carolina at all, topping out at like 7%. South Carolina is also notably Steyer's best state.
After New Hampshire, I wonder what Biden's lead in South Carolina will look like. His numbers are slipping in other states thanks to Buttigieg and even Klobuchar where Sanders is mostly unaffected. If Biden suddenly loses ground to either of them (which seems less likely in South Carolina than Iowa and New Hampshire) we could have a much more competitive race there.
And if Steyer's voters start to break away based on the momentum other candidates have in preceding states, that's a big percentage of voters that could go somewhere else.
Of course, Biden could also win the state by 15+ points. Who knows.
Current three poll average is:
Biden 30%
Sanders 18%
Steyer 17%
Warren 10%
Up until the end of January, Biden almost always led South Carolina by +20pts. Suddenly on 1/29 we got a poll that only had Biden up by 5 over Sanders. This was quelled pretty quickly by another poll 2/2 that had Biden up by 18 again. The next day there was another Biden poll that had him up by 8. Pulling these numbers from here: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020D/polls.php?fips=45
So it's hard to get a sense of what's really going on. The last three polls have been super inconsistent, but two of them are the lowest Biden has ever led by. Buttigieg has not polled meaningfully in South Carolina at all, topping out at like 7%. South Carolina is also notably Steyer's best state.
After New Hampshire, I wonder what Biden's lead in South Carolina will look like. His numbers are slipping in other states thanks to Buttigieg and even Klobuchar where Sanders is mostly unaffected. If Biden suddenly loses ground to either of them (which seems less likely in South Carolina than Iowa and New Hampshire) we could have a much more competitive race there.
And if Steyer's voters start to break away based on the momentum other candidates have in preceding states, that's a big percentage of voters that could go somewhere else.
Of course, Biden could also win the state by 15+ points. Who knows.
No, he is terrible. Look into his history. Look into what the man has done when he wielded power over people's lives. Don't think you can trust him to safeguard black and brown lives for even a second.
Personally still disappointed and frankly a little surprised where Warren went. She just about had won me over - I still likely will vote primary for her - fan of her policy approach, but the rhetoric just moved away from her. Not sure how she gets back into tithe conversation.
User Banned (1 Week): Ignoring Staff Post Over Multiple Posts with Regards to Conspiracy Theories
Sorry I don't believe this FOR A SECOND.
Just too many incidents that favoured Pete.
If you find yourself in a situation where you consider homophobic and libertarian shitheads better allies than a staunch progressive, it might be time to either admit you are not progressive yourself or to reconsider what lead you to that conclusion.
I was just referring to his platform. Don't mistake my summary as an endorsement. I have no affection for Bloomberg. I didn't mean to speak to his quality or his honesty as a candidate, just the summary of his supposed positions.
Even if Biden won SC by 15+ points, it would be a significantly less powerful punch than what it was for Hillary, because she won by 47 points.
Obviously we only have one data point this time around, but we literally have zero evidence that Bernie possess a unique ability to increase turnout. We didn't see it in Iowa. We didn't see in in 2016.
So I would definitely argue the jury is still out as to whether Bernie can energise people and get them to the polls more than other candidates. Over here In the U.K. labour just had a massive, crashing defeat because young people failed to turn to support corbyn as everyone was hopi g they would.
The DNC knows Sanders would be hamstrung by at least one full term trying to undo the mess Trump left him. I know it's a meme that the Democratic establishment hates Bernie but I think it's a little overstated (especially when we start getting into conspiracy theory territory!) and I think many have resigned themselves to the fact that they are just going to have to rebrand themselves closer to the progressive side, even if the underlying machinery is still largely moderate.
I'm terrified of finding out the answer to that hypothetical so lets just fucking pray it doesn't come down to a scenario where we have to find out.
You are wrong. The contingency of "the DNC" that would sooner take Trump's re-election over Bernie's election is about as large as the Bernie or Bust contingency that certain Sanders supporters insist isn't real, or at least substantial enough to be taken seriously.
They may not be totally cool with it, but if Sanders wins the nomination, the party will support him. Perez will support him, Biden will support him, Obama will support him, Pelosi will support him, Clinton will support him, basically every moderate/liberal boogeyman you can think of will support him. Even Michael Bloomberg said he'll support him as a means of stopping Trump.
Not sure why you are giving his summary of supposed positions any credence. Trump had a lot of 'supposed' positions that ended up being complete bullshit as soon as he took office. Expect the same from Bloomberg.
I just can't stand people falling for this 'Bloomberg is a good billionaire' shtick (not saying you are, but people all over the forum ARE falling for it and I feel like mentioning his supposed progressive platform without all of his history that directly contradicts that platform contributes to it).
I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right. Sanders would be good for the entire world, not just USA.
Trump has shat on the Obama and Clinton legacy too hard for the DNC to prefer Trump over Sanders.
Like even if you are the biggest anti-Democrat establishment person out there, you really cannot believe that the DNC would rather have Trump over Sanders. Trump is basically taking a massive dump on the legacies of a lot of these higher up politicians and they can't stand it.
They also know that a Sanders president isn't going to suddenly make them poor, you still need to pass legislation and there are still many moderates Democrats in congress (assuming you even win the Senate). Policy wise, the establishment Democrats aren't really scared of what Bernie can do and they have their record in Vermont to look at (which is quite tame tbh).
This is just a silly narrative being pushed by folks to get clicks, don't take the bait. Everyone is going to coalesce around the front runner once we have one.
Like even if you are the biggest anti-Democrat establishment person out there, you really cannot believe that the DNC would rather have Trump over Sanders. Trump is basically taking a massive dump on the legacies of a lot of these higher up politicians and they can't stand it.
They also know that a Sanders president isn't going to suddenly make them poor, you still need to pass legislation and there are still many moderates Democrats in congress (assuming you even win the Senate). Policy wise, the establishment Democrats aren't really scared of what Bernie can do and they have their record in Vermont to look at (which is quite tame tbh).
This is just a silly narrative being pushed by folks to get clicks, don't take the bait. Everyone is going to coalesce around the front runner once we have one.
DNC is not orchestrating some vast conspiracy to stop Bernie. They just suck at their jobs a lot of the time, and people mistake their ineptitude for intention because, honestly, the idea that they are political masterminds is more comforting than the idea that a bunch of incompetents are supposed to be facilitating nationwide victories against Trump and Republicans.
tbh I'm more inclined to believe the people behind the iowa caucuses are just inept idiots rather than conspiring against sanders
iowa should have its statehood revoked and PR should take its place.
iowa should have its statehood revoked and PR should take its place.
That's obviously a joke but tbh wouldn't mind if it happened
I don't think DNC prefers Trump over Sanders. What's more likely is that they'll give Trump the win by trying to undermine Sanders.
The great irony of all the "the DNC rigged Iowa for Buttigieg" conspiracy theories is the end result of Iowa helped Bernie almost exclusively. Would have been better if he won, but Buttigieg is cutting into Biden's support in a way that say, Warren doesn't do for Sanders.
Like imagine claiming the fix is in when Bernie is currently the frontrunner as a result of (or in spite of) the whole Iowa debacle.
And also for the billionth time, the DNC doesn't run state caucuses. The state party does. You're telling me you're surprised the Iowa Democratic Party might have bungled this up? What'll be the excuse when Sanders wins the New Hampshire primary handily tomorrow night?
Like imagine claiming the fix is in when Bernie is currently the frontrunner as a result of (or in spite of) the whole Iowa debacle.
And also for the billionth time, the DNC doesn't run state caucuses. The state party does. You're telling me you're surprised the Iowa Democratic Party might have bungled this up? What'll be the excuse when Sanders wins the New Hampshire primary handily tomorrow night?
Oh of course, but the majority of pundits are backwards morons.
I'd much rather believe theyre working behind the scenes with a plan than just being this insanely inept, but of course its the latter rather than the former and its super dispiriting.
He wouldn't come out for Bernie early. Not a chance in hell.
It would be the same thing honestly.
I understand what you're saying. Definitely don't think I'm encouraging anyone to support Bloomberg. Someone asked what his platform was so I remarked on the summary, but that was really all I'd intended to do. Someone like Bloomberg having comparable positions to other more genuine candidates is not a good thing to me. I just thought it was better than you'd expect from a billionaire who is only in the race to serve his own rivalry.
I didn't mean to suggest he was good, or honest, or trustworthy. But I also understand I didn't indicate otherwise either.
I use pretty neutral language in this thread when discussing candidates (see my SC post above, for example). I try not to tell anyone how to feel or challenge anyone on the candidates they support. I mostly go by the data. Just a habit leftover from when I was staff, I suppose.
I would personally eat Bloomberg before he was my preference for president.
They are just that inept, though. Like if you spend any time looking into the app used in Iowa...it's just dumb mistake after dumb mistake. And they do this all over the country, state democratic parties are a clusterfuck.
I'm PRETTY sure that pundit is asking for Obama to weigh in to "stop" Bernie.
The DNC's motto has been UNITY. I look forward to all the unity and media outlets falling in line. Anything else will just show them to be two faced and hypocritical.
I figured as much, and I understand where you were coming from. Just wanted to put my two cents in.
Oh that was my read as well. They certainly aren't advocating for Obama to come out early in support of sanders. Would be pretty cool if he did tho!
Bernie's numbers showed "victory" because his people went to precincts that most favored him
Lol, Obama weighing in for anyone would be bad news.
I posted that though to show that pundits are already melting down, looking for a "moderate savior".
why are dems the only ones afraid of a challenge?
The republican debates were a lot wilder. Until Bernie calls Pete "the zodiac killer", I'm tuning out all "we need unity" takes
Really. Has the Republican Party ever been more unified behind a president? Did the nasty primary hurt Trump. It's sad
"where's obama. somebody get obama on the line so we can make sense of this"
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