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Democratic Presidential Primary |February OT| It Can't be Worse than Iowa, Right? (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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If Sanders wins Nevada by that big of a margin he's going to dominate Super Tuesday. Might even win SC!
The realignment will make things a lot closer don't forget. I expect another shit show nail bitter.
But if nobody but Sanders hits 15% aren't they eliminated for second alignment?
Edit; reading up on the Iowa one, didn't know that to eliminated can get together and reform to make one viable.
Second alignment happens on a precinct level, not the state level.
You see, leading in Nevada is actually BAD for Bernie. The real story here is the strong third place by Buttigieg!
I was confused, thinking that when they count the groups, that the ones that didn't make 15% were out. I didn't realize, the captains of a non viable first round group could actually pull people in the second to make themselves viable.
That's a good point. Most like the progressives will be split up between Warren and Sanders giving moderates the chance to coalesce around somebody. Given the Warren is polling so close to 15% I'm hoping there will be a lot of districts where she gets close to but under 15% in the first round - I think that would give Bernie a huge boost in those districts. This primary is wild.
I don't think vote splitting is actually as much as a factor. When you look at the head-to-head match ups, Bernie wins against every other candidate. When you look at second choice polling, Bernie is the most favorable second choice. This means that as the moderates drop out, a larger share of that vote goes to Bernie than anyone else.
While hispanics on average being much younger than the black, white and asian voters does help Bernie due to all the gen z and millenial voters the thing that really puts him over the top is the fact that he isn't anathema to older hispanics (who aren't cuban or venezuelan?) like he is to old people of other races. Dunno why, but socialism and the electable argument doesn't work. Older members of my family were pro Bernie before I even mentioned his name. My old man was mystified by Biden's numbers and thinks he's kinda senile.
It's weird
It's weird
What the fuck? Mittens is hyper conservative and extremely religious. Just because he voted for one article of impeachment doesn't make idk his entire hyper conservative career tolerable smh.
So, if Bloombery gets nominated, is that the end of the Democratic party in spirit as Trump was the end of the GOP in spirit?
Trump represents everything the GOP has stood for in the last 5 decades or so, so not really...?
If Bloomberg gets nominated it will show that the DNC only cares about money and not about any of its policies it claims to care about. They already changed the debate rules at the last second after multiple candidates dropped out from being able to qualify for the debate stage, specifically to allow Bloomberg into the debate room, despite the fact his campaign is entirely self funded. He is literally attempting to buy an election, and the DNC said sure!
Yeah I've been hearing this shit blasted on the radio non-stop
The Republican party is homogeneous enough in terms of political and economic interests that they could put aside their bickering and get in line between their candidate, no matter who it was.
This is not an option for the Democrats. If Bloomberg gets the nomination, there will be a great number of people who either 1. Rescind their party membership, possibly to form a third party or 2. Disengage from the political process altogether and resign themselves to the dystopia we live in. In either case, I think the party would lose so much support that they no longer have a majority coalition. They would be absolutely doomed. If people disengage, we're utterly fucked. If a major third party is formed, then it would likely be used to put pressure on the Democratic establishment in ways we've been unable to do from the inside (pushing them to meet leftists in the middle instead of conservatives), but it would still probably be doom because liberals would rather eat their own eyeballs than appeal to leftists. The third party is almost a non-starter, but it depends on HOW BAD the convention gets, really.
Considering she's polling second and poised to get delegates from Nevada from the most recent poll, why should she?
She's predicted by 538 to get delegates from only one state on Super Tuesday
Okay, but how does that make a case for why she should drop out now?
Bernie's been showing more of his true power level lately. We need this man to run against Trump in a general election. Accept no substitutes.
And don't forget he turned down a rail system that would connect the Three Cs because Obama was providing the money.
I personally think she should have dropped out after New Hampshire. The longer she goes the more money she wastes. She can drop out whenever she wants but I think it would have made sense for her to drop out any time after that fourth place when it was clear that she's not gonna win. I don't know why any candidate with no chance is still running, Klob and Pete and the rest should leave too.
I still say Warren needs to stay in if not for the simple fact that shit can happen. Campaigns implode, scandals come out, etc. If Sanders has something dire happen between now and nomination do you really want to be forced to choose between Biden and Bloomberg? Or would you rather have the option of reviving the Warren campaign?
That's not even mentioning that if she does indeed nab second in Nevada maybe the media will treat her like Klob was treated for her one singular showing and she'll get a bit of a boost.
Plus you all are counting on Warren votes going 1:1 to Sanders and they demonstrably do not.
We've had two fucking states cast ballots. Again, I know people want this to be over because the threat of Biden and Bloomberg shadows everything, but it isn't. It just started. We can't will it to end now. Narratives and campaigns change a lot sometimes during election season. Frontrunners can change. This is a process. Let it happen. Let some states that aren't white as shit at least vote.
That's not even mentioning that if she does indeed nab second in Nevada maybe the media will treat her like Klob was treated for her one singular showing and she'll get a bit of a boost.
Plus you all are counting on Warren votes going 1:1 to Sanders and they demonstrably do not.
We've had two fucking states cast ballots. Again, I know people want this to be over because the threat of Biden and Bloomberg shadows everything, but it isn't. It just started. We can't will it to end now. Narratives and campaigns change a lot sometimes during election season. Frontrunners can change. This is a process. Let it happen. Let some states that aren't white as shit at least vote.
She has literally no path to the nomination other than as a """unity candidate""" (lol) at contested convention in which case she does not get Bernie's base of support automatically (myself included) so good luck with trying this. I recommend coming to peace with her utterly plain lack of viability as soon as possible.
It's good for Sanders, but not unrealistically good compared to what we'd expect to see at this point for a poll in a diverse caucus state given the results from the first contests. It's not a bad idea to stay cautious about polls, but this doesn't seem to warrant any more caution than usual.
There's a bit more detail here. The most promising aspect of it, given that it's quite new, is the unfavourables for Bloomberg - he's underwater at -16, trailing everyone else in the pack except Gabbard, and with 32% "very unfavourable", and the polling period only ran until the 15th so there was more unfavourable news afterwards.
Anyone who think it's too good and who'd like a really shitty poll for a dose of pessimism, there's also this one that has Steyer winning in Nevada off a tiny sample that's resulted in comically huge error bars.
Exactly. People acting like the primary is already finished when we just had masses shitting their pants at a rising Bloomberg in the last week. A lot can change and I see no harm in Warren continuing to run for as long as she can.
Warren in the race late into the game helps Bernie as she is still taking votes mostly from other groups evenly (if Warren wasnt in NH, Buttiegeg could have won that). You have to imagine that at a convention she will give her delegates to Bernie so I wouldn't worry about her trying to make a case for herself when Sanders will have like hundreds of delegates over her.
On a purely strategic level, I don't think Warren dropping out will help Bernie unless she comes out with an endorsement of him as well. The remaining Warren supporters are well-to-do college educated (and mainly white) Liberals. Bernie may get a fair amount of them, but I feel like Pete and Klob would benefit the most.
Based on polling I think a greater percentage of Warren's base goes to moderates rather than Bernie, so the longer she's in the more she helps him.
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