Let me know when they start incorporating the wealth tax and Medicare for all instead of doing the bare minimum for everything.
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Democratic Presidential Primaries & Caucuses |March OT| Last Tuesday was 1000 years ago, old news no one cares about (Discussion Guidelines in OP)
- Thread starter Poodlestrike
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Let me know when they start incorporating the wealth tax and Medicare for all instead of doing the bare minimum for everything.
on the macro level climate change and economic precarity are not approached similarly by the young and the old
the overwhelming majority of voters don't have a robust theory of political change, they are responding to material concerns and personal preference
same as it ever was
What barriers preclude young people from voting that don't similarly preclude black voters in the south from voting?
From my vantage point as a Hispanic, it would seem that both Black and Hispanic voters have more barriers to voting than do young people in general. And yet Black voters turned out for Biden in the South and Hispanic voters turned out for Bernie in Nevada and elsewhere.
There's a turnout surge everywhere in all demographics. But there's no specific youth turnout surge because there never is. The "youth boom" in 2017 Corbyn tried to take credit for was completely overpowered by even higher increases in older demographics. But that would have ruined the narrative.
New voters aren't showing up for Bernie. They're showing up for Biden, because the new voters are overwhelmingly the R->D Suburban voters that helped flip the house in 2018.
New voters aren't showing up for Bernie. They're showing up for Biden, because the new voters are overwhelmingly the R->D Suburban voters that helped flip the house in 2018.
I'm fine voting for Biden or Bernie. I wish Biden was consistently sharp and I'm terrified that he's reaching a point of diminishing acuity for an ostensible eight year term -
and I'm nervous about avowed Bernie Busters staying home - because there's a lot of them even n this fairly rational forum - when record narrow margins and GOP fuckery are guaranteed at the polls.
I'm nervous AF that Hunter Burisma will resonate with the same credulous public that believes Hillary directly caused Benghazi and has rivals killed.
Ironically I'm much more aligned politically with Bernie on policy — but pragmatically believe that Biden is more electable in the traditional sense than Bernie - and that the same Bernie policies I believe in are anathema to the voting margins— but I'm more and more deeply unhappy with the inescapable fact that no matter what happens now - our voting choices are limited to one of three elderly white men who're prime candidates for dangerous coronavirus complications who frequently interact with vast swathes of infectious public.
That means that the VP choice this year is going to be PROFOUNDLY important for more voters than ever and there's no perfect choice:
1. youth and vitality to contrast with the health and/or mental capacity risks of either candidate
2. Diversity of race and gender for obvious reasons
3. Political alignment to balance out socialism or centrism
4. A person who can tip the scales on a vital purple or pivotal State
5. A good connected and respected bipartisan navigator or dealmaker or whip to deal with fractious internal and house politics
6. Someone who can appeal to most Americans as a true deputy and replacement president
There's no such person.
There's no miracle veep I can think of and BernieChar/KlobBernie is the closest I can think of to thread that needle. And if Biden takes it as expected — he doesn't have a Klob equivalent.
hot take: Bernie might help a few things as a Biden veep - but then you're back to two at risk elderly white men - but Biden as a Bernie Verp makes no sense as an eight year term safety net and doesn't calm socialism paranoia.
somebody please remind me I'm forgetting someone. And there's a car parked outside with a goddamned Tulsi sticker in the window!
and I'm nervous about avowed Bernie Busters staying home - because there's a lot of them even n this fairly rational forum - when record narrow margins and GOP fuckery are guaranteed at the polls.
I'm nervous AF that Hunter Burisma will resonate with the same credulous public that believes Hillary directly caused Benghazi and has rivals killed.
Ironically I'm much more aligned politically with Bernie on policy — but pragmatically believe that Biden is more electable in the traditional sense than Bernie - and that the same Bernie policies I believe in are anathema to the voting margins— but I'm more and more deeply unhappy with the inescapable fact that no matter what happens now - our voting choices are limited to one of three elderly white men who're prime candidates for dangerous coronavirus complications who frequently interact with vast swathes of infectious public.
That means that the VP choice this year is going to be PROFOUNDLY important for more voters than ever and there's no perfect choice:
1. youth and vitality to contrast with the health and/or mental capacity risks of either candidate
2. Diversity of race and gender for obvious reasons
3. Political alignment to balance out socialism or centrism
4. A person who can tip the scales on a vital purple or pivotal State
5. A good connected and respected bipartisan navigator or dealmaker or whip to deal with fractious internal and house politics
6. Someone who can appeal to most Americans as a true deputy and replacement president
There's no such person.
- Liz is female but "socialist " and old and white.
- Kamala is a "coastal elitist " and brings mixed race credentials thanks to prosecuting record.
- Cory is too meh, or too black, or too impotent or too young depending on which Boomers are opining.
- Stacy Abrams probably won Georgia and could maybe bring Georgia along but the same massive voter suppression that stole her likely victoryis still intact there. Plus race and relative inexperience.
- Beto has some of it but his ethical position on guns undoes his Potential ability to flip TX and many other states. (Although he could both obfuscate and soften that.
- Klob is probably the closest but only if Bernie picked her — but Biden doesn't have an equivalent
There's no miracle veep I can think of and BernieChar/KlobBernie is the closest I can think of to thread that needle. And if Biden takes it as expected — he doesn't have a Klob equivalent.
hot take: Bernie might help a few things as a Biden veep - but then you're back to two at risk elderly white men - but Biden as a Bernie Verp makes no sense as an eight year term safety net and doesn't calm socialism paranoia.
somebody please remind me I'm forgetting someone. And there's a car parked outside with a goddamned Tulsi sticker in the window!
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I think age, gender, race, personality will matter more for the VP than policy, with "young and energetic" being at the forefront. If I had to guess, I'd guess Kamala, unless Biden still harbors some resentment from the debate (if he even remembers, heh hurr durr).
I don't think people generally have a robust theory of political change. I never really said that. To be more precise, I think it's telling that when you poll democrats they say that what they want more than anything is someone who can beat Trump. A large percentage of people who approve of medicare for all are voting for Biden.
Why support for Medicare-for-all didn’t translate into a bigger Super Tuesday for Bernie Sanders
Medicare-for-all keeps outperforming Bernie Sanders with Dem primary voters.
www.vox.com
he wanted to do one term after obama to "see things out". so i guess this campaign is a course correction of 2016
barring something weird happening no way in hell he'll be a two termer. if he goes grandpa simpson and insists on it then i'd imagine jill and his cabinet would sedate him and put him in a condo in florida and insist it's the white house
this is possibly good news for either candidate in that all boats rise on that tide - and that Black voters DID vote in higher numbers anyway- but more importantly shy or regretful Trump voters and the main voting bloc period, is being motivated by fear - which a the most powerful voting motivator in a general election- and part of the phenomenon that got us this orange turd in the first place.
also suggests some cushion for Bernie's weakness with black voters should he somehow pull off a math upset in the next few weeks. the missing data is relative enthusiasm for the other candidate.
Young people having to brave the risk isn't helpful either. I think it probably would have been more productive to delay these voting dates like Louisiana. A lot of the youth vote probably don't live in an environment that's feasible for self-quarantine, so having people go out and gather at voting booths doesn't help.
He's been significantly sharper in the last week or so but that could be either focus and optimism - or a spike on a graph. Or his dustyness for the last couple weeks f months was a dip on the same chart. That said he's (even at his lowest ebb) vastly more competent, intelligent and sane than Trump and was s not an egomaniac- he'll take advice and maintain dignity and statesmanship short of a stroke.
sad that this is now a rational and strong position to take but we're bereft we f options.
If Dems win in 2020 there has to be scorched earth on voting integrity and constitutionally enforceable "norms and traditions " where there are legal teeth for shit like McConnell stealing judges or Trump ignoring subpoenas and Barr openly politicizing his crime spree.
if they lose — then I think mini revolutions at the local and state level will be needed to claw back the ability to even have this discussion ever again.
If Trump and Barr and McConnell get four more years - the justice and electoral system will be warped permanently beyond recoverability. There won't be a 2024 Democratic savior, because the institutions will be deliberately and permanently dismantled to secure the GOP's future as an immovable and permanent minority party in power. A quiet Weimar Republic supported by billionaires, corporations and a disgraceful and impotent click and market driven media landscape.
Trump, Barr and McConnell will do literally anything they can get away with. There's no moral or shame or appearance based limit to what they'll do to stay in power and out of prison.
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I'd be weary of changing the primary/election schedule because it gives Trump a precident to do the same this fall if the virus is having a resurgence.
You're right. I'll apologize and remove it.
So they're more keenly aware and still said they dont care by not showing up when it mattered? Are they trying to persuade others or not?
being keenly aware of the problems facing society moving forward is actually a pretty good incentive to just give up and do you until the shit hits the fan
doomer culture is a meme but it's a meme that reflects an unacknowledged reality that biden is going to rearrange the deck chairs on the titanic that is liberal capitalism
I'm pretty sure a lot of them did show up though just in less numbers then the other major voting block. It would be nice if we could get a decent poll for people who didn't bother showing up to get a more concrete answer for why.
This is willfully ignorant.
Do you know how difficult it is to actually implement a wealth tax? Do you know how it failed in numerous countries in Europe? Do you actually think it will not go to the SC at an impressive speed? Finally, do you even know what is in Biden's tax plan?
As for Medicare For All, Europe is a testament to the various methods of attaining universal healthcare. Biden's plan puts us on course of imitating one of the many countries with a strong public options.
Bare minimum? His opioid plan is the most progressive in the field, even more so than Warren's. But I guess we'll just not read platforms because criticizing is so much more fun.
Ugh.
I mean, in the case of the general election it's literally written into the Constitution
and my point was i consider that decision to be motivated in part by a lack of incorporation of the challenges the 21st century will provide into the decision making matrix of older votersI don't think people generally have a robust theory of political change. I never really said that. To be more precise, I think it's telling that when you poll democrats they say that what they want more than anything is someone who can beat Trump. A large percentage of people who approve of medicare for all are voting for Biden.
Why support for Medicare-for-all didn’t translate into a bigger Super Tuesday for Bernie Sanders
Medicare-for-all keeps outperforming Bernie Sanders with Dem primary voters.
not all of them mind you, just proportionally greater as the cohorts get older.
Those most aware of the problems have actually responded to repeat failures by changing their strategy or simply doing more than counting on shit to hit the fan for a hundred years. And if that were a serious take, why isnt that sincerity widely reflected in all aspects of how such a person lives their life?
Their turnout doesnt line up with their claims. Starting from so far behind they should have had a much higher turnout increase than most demographics.
how do you know that is not the case? every individual is subject to a matrix of competing demands and information that they have to negotiate. Things wouldn't manifest themselves as straightforwardly as that.
also like it bears repeating that (as the poets billy woods and elucid remind us)
Well if they're gonna start taking Warren's ideas, I'd prefer they start taking the best ones along with the current one. It's not like she didn't lay out a path/plan herself on how to get it. I've only been following the debates thus far and his twitter feed and Biden has constantly failed to inform what his actually policies are. Quite frankly theres a lot of stuff this week that has progressively been moving fast enough to get when it was previously thought to be unobtainable. We're gonna need a lot of this previously described as "radical" policies to handle the untold amount of damage the coronavirus is gonna do.
damn its wild that Louisiana could just cancel an election like that
Considering how many people are potentially sick right now then yes. The safest thing to do would be to delay it. Regardless even if they move it to June turnout is going to be greatly affected due to the elderly population that may be sick. This is the absolute worst timing no matter which way you look at it.
It may be motivated in part by that, I don't necessarily disagree with that.
I also see it as being motivated by a lack of belief in the policies as electoral winners and as things that can actually become reality, not just a non-support. If everyone who supported Medicare for all voted by Bernie then he would win in a landslide.
sure, maybe
but that is like one issue and this is not necessarily even about bernie v biden
biden's climate policy should be an immediate non-starter for anyone invested in the future of the planet beyond the comfort of the very few
i don't care that other people don't share that opinion because my take happens to be the (more) correct one. So at then end of the day I will go on maintaining that it is more likely older voters (to a proportionally greater degree) do not understand the scope of the problem climate change presents then it is that they do understand but disagree with me on the path of how best to get there
Joe Biden is a ghoul and it's unfortunate that liberals have such awful standards in politicians. But also the alternative is Trump who could not care less about climate change. It is sad for all of us that old people seem to not care much at all about climate change.
It has to a combination of olds not grasping the gravity of climate crisis and not caring. The thing is this should be a known obstacle. Nobody should be just realizing that they dont get it. I could have told you that years ago.
The reaction to corona virus seems like a very good indicator of how climate change will be received if we don't make big changes. Ignore/downplay/mock it until it's already too late and you just have to cross you fingers and hope your toilet paper hoards are enough. Hell, there are going to be a bunch of old people going out to vote on tuesday, putting themselves at risk, to vote against expanding medical care to all. Even when the consequences are right in their face, many people won't change.
The more I study ERA, the more I'm sort of thinking that reddit post I read was right. Climate Change is the best thing to happen to the Progressive movement.
In regards to voting disenfranchisement and whatnot:
1) Caucuses, which Bernie fans LOVED in 2016 because he overperformed in them (which is why it was hilarious to see them proclaim how undemocratic they are in 2020), suppress the elderly vote. It's funny how supposedly young people can't spend all day waiting in line to vote, but they can spend all day at a caucus.
2) I haven't actually looked this up so here's a chance to tell me how wrong my assumption is, but is there ANY evidence of a huge overperformance in youth turnout in Washington (which is completely vote by mail)? Being completely vote by mail should eliminate any attempt at so-called "voter suppression."
1) Caucuses, which Bernie fans LOVED in 2016 because he overperformed in them (which is why it was hilarious to see them proclaim how undemocratic they are in 2020), suppress the elderly vote. It's funny how supposedly young people can't spend all day waiting in line to vote, but they can spend all day at a caucus.
2) I haven't actually looked this up so here's a chance to tell me how wrong my assumption is, but is there ANY evidence of a huge overperformance in youth turnout in Washington (which is completely vote by mail)? Being completely vote by mail should eliminate any attempt at so-called "voter suppression."
If you're specifically just talking about Climate change, then that changes the conversation somewhat.
I think young people are generally more aware and feel more urgent in regards to climate change. However, at the end of the day, I don't think young people or old people have a clear understanding of what good climate change policy even is. As a topic, Climate change has been pushed has been completely pushed to the back of this primary. Unless you have some, we have no evidence that a significant amount of voters are choosing candidates mainly because of their climate change plans.
Older people are picking Biden because they think he'll win and others will lose. Generally, neither young nor old people are as aware of policy as you're implying to be able to look at Biden's plan and even know if it's adequate or not.
i think many young people are aware that a 2050 target date is suicide
this isn't as complicated as you are making it out to be
acting like a divergence of generational concerns isn't an existential risk to the future of liberalism because of primary turnout is not really cogent political analysis. It's only a partial (and distorted) reflection of broader social trends.
I think Tammy Balwdin is a good, not-very-talked about VP pick for Biden. The danger with her is that WI is a special election state, so democrats could conceivably lose a senate seat.
Tammy Duckworth would also be great, but people are going to make a lot of hay about her eligibility.
The media is going to be fucking unbearable if/when Biden wins the Primary. This will literally be the only thing they talk about from that point to election day. Just constant talk of either Ukraine and the question of his mental state. It's gonna suck sooo much. E-mails 2: Electric Boogaloo.
Biden's climate plan is actually good if you 10x the amount of R&D in it. Every Democratic candidate's plan was mediocre to bad, that's not something that's intrinsic to Biden. He actually probably has one of the best ones out there in terms of targeted investments and areas of promising research that can help decrease carbon emissions. Democratic primary voters (and the rest of the country) just do not care about climate change as much as defeating Trump, healthcare, or the economy unfortunately.
that's only a good plan if you ignore the part of every un paper which demands a fundamental reworking of the institutions of capitalism to avoid a 2 degree increase
the market will not solve no matter how much r&d money is thrown around if enterprise is still premised on continuous growth
it is criminal on a historical level for political leadership to put their faith in the market institutions who have lead us here to now innovate us out of the consequences of their own actions
0 Sympathy here. Centrists love their MSM, so I can only laugh when I see them treat Trump with kid gloves while they ruthlessly vet BIden
Bernie Bros know whats up and refuse to listen to the fake news
I honestly don't understand why people always hold out hope that young folks would ever convert their 'passion' to actual voter turnout. Anecdotally, those in my age group (and younger) are about the most defeatist and cynical people I interact with concerning world issues & politics. Every little set-back is an excuse to just give up, don't go to polls, then post memes. It's so stereotypical/frustrating, now low-key hoping old folks contract a lethal virus so their dude might have a teeny-tiny chance of winning (rather than just getting their fellows to stop being bitter defeatist fucks).
no lies detected
it's 2016 all over again
they will keep hedging and it will keep hurting biden more because his potential constituencies give these intuitions actual credibility.
We need to be focused on getting the presidency and the senate. I mean, pulling Biden (who with his platform alone, would be the most progressive presidency we've seen) left is much more achievable than another Trump presidency. Look at the work Nancy has been able to do in response to the coronavirus and a Republican Senate and President.
Maybe...they do? For all of the shit we throw at Biden, he introduced climate change legislation before I was born. So it's weird to say that he doesn't care about climate change or understands the gravity of it, if he's been talking about it for over 30 years.
Many people parroting the Green New Deal do not even know the origins of the name. Climate change is a global crisis that will require all nations to make extremely difficult decisions and sacrifices. Being aware of that and knowing that the same millennials protesting for this will have a very different reaction once they understand what they have to sacrifice.
if he doesn't accede to the conclusions of current scientific consensus on not just the overall reality of the issue but also on the prospects for effective mitigation without significant change to the structuring of the global economy, then no he does not adequately grasp the issue.
I can get some takes from economists and environmental scientists who are friends and colleagues, I am sure they would be happy to repeat this to you if you don't want to take my word for it.
This condescending attitude from someone who doesn't seem to be particularly well informed themselves is a really bad look considering there are people on this site for whom this is their profession.
And, I think many young people and many old people have no idea if 2050 is a particularly good or bad date. And I'm pretty sure most people voting are going to have no idea what date is specified in Biden's plan.
To me, it seems like you're overstating the presence of specifics of rather complex policy issues in voter's minds as a key decider. This just doesn't seem to be true from all the data we have.
What happened in that primary is kinda what happens all the time, so I don't know why you're downplaying it. Proposed policy is just signalling, it's advertising. I'm not even saying that a difference in generational concerns doesn't exist at all, I'm just pointing out that we have evidence other things can have a greater impact here when deciding where people end up voting. For instance, the perception of candidates and their long term viability.
I have been talking about disaffected young voters this entire time.
I don't know why this bernie v biden thing keeps coming up
primary voters are a small proportion of society as a whole and are also most assuredly not a fully representative cross-section.
i think you underestimate the extent to which young people (under the age of 35) understand that the political establishment across western liberal capitalist society has no interest in an adequate response to climate change
now i will grant that this might less true in the us because of the saturation of propaganda and the dire state of public education in your country. However even with that being the true (to some extent) it doesn't change the fact that you are still not being charitable enough to young people and resorting to the self-defeating position of "do any of us know what good climate policy would look like" which again i can assure you is not the case.
Biden will sign the most progressive climate change bill that is on his desk. That bill needs to get on his desk. That means it needs to get through Congress.
But saying olds don't care about climate change is ignorant. The UN's Global Green New Deal from 2009 has done what for the structuring of the global economy? Climate change is not something America alone can solve.
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