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Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
In both cases, Sanders' numbers with black voters were revealed to be nightmarishly bad to the point they singlehandedly made him nonviable for the nomination. In both cases, Sanders ran rather than campaign in the south to try and fix those margins.

Hiring a diverse staff who aren't going to be able to get Sanders to not make the same mistakes again doesn't fix the fundamental issue at play, which appears to just be Sanders himself.

You can say all of that first paragraph. It's doesnt change that you're pushing a logical fallacy.

Sanders had no such problems in his first couple states, the factors that made South Carolina harder for his were regionally specific. You didn't see those kinds of numbers for Texas, as an example. Which again is why to Texas GOP massively supressed the nonwhite vote before ST, leading to a narrow Biden win.

The numbers that Sanders is getting now is entirely the result of (well executed) in party engineering and voters respond to the news of big wins and loses. Biden got a big bump for SC, a state he was always expected to win, which helped his position elsewhere, but it wasn't enough. So, the establishment closed ranks quickly which played well with late deciding voters, giving Biden an even bigger bounce from upsetting ST, which then has a ripple effect elsewhere. Votes aren't cast in a vaccum.

Sanders reluctance isn't about nonwhites or whites, it's about the ghoulish establishment that is incrementing everyone to their graves.

It's kinda amazing how much Biden has been vilified when even Bernie himself thinks well of the guy.

That's another fault of Sanders, he's too forgiving of people he believes to be friends even when they are opposed to him. I don't see how people were surprised by the establishment closing ranks post SC, following a good Biden win. Sanders never should have ever let on on attacking Bidens horrible record. It was a mistake that helped create a big enough SC win for Biden for the obvious to happen in an overly crowded field.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,126

twitter.com

Steadman™ on Twitter

“AOC on no Warren endorsement: "I come from the lens of an organizer, and if someone doesn’t do what you want, you don’t blame them — you ask why. And you don’t demand that answer of that person — you reflect. And that reflection is where you can grow.” https://t.co/NsP4RXu5aS”
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
That's another fault of Sanders, he's too forgiving of people he believes to be friends even when they are opposed to him. I don't see how people were surprised by the establishment closing ranks post SC, following a good Biden win. Sanders never should have ever let on on attacking Bidens horrible record. It was a mistake that helped create a big enough SC win for Biden for the obvious to happen in an overly crowded field.
It's kinda amazing how opposed we are on this. You see Sanders being able to have disagreements with people while still seeing the good in them as a fault. I see it as a character strength.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
Sanders had no such problems in his first couple states, the factors that made South Carolina harder for his were regionally specific. You didn't see those kinds of numbers for Texas, as an example. Which again is why to Texas GOP massively supressed the nonwhite vote before ST, leading to a narrow Biden win.

You are ignoring that the first 3 states set up incredibly well for Bernie. 2 out of 3 were caucus states. No significant African American population.

If I was a Biden Bro, I would have been claiming a DNC conspiracy against my guy.
 

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
93,025
The Warren Endorsement reminds me of the "He can still when with Cali" arguments of 2016
 

thoughthaver

Banned
Feb 6, 2020
434
Biden is Ramses in this comparison (lol) but who is Brienne?
look jack, the baratheons they-hey want to take this castle here. they want to take it and take my dogs too. and you know what i think about that? its wrong. which is why my campaign, that's why they are going to stop him. they are going to stop him. he's a bad dude. he burns people and his teeth, they chatter all the time. we're gonna use our swords, we're gonna use that to beat him. and look pal, stannis, he's gonna regret going up against us. i know 12 good guys. i know them from my time in wilmington . they are gonna get the job done, they are gonna cut his camels loose and set fire to his tomatoes. and we're gonna win.
It's kinda amazing how opposed we are on this. You see Sanders being able to have disagreements with people while still seeing the good in them as a fault. I see it as a character strength.
not when you are in politics and the people you oppose are responsible for all sorts of ghoulish shit.
 

Jer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,196
I knew Bernie and his campaign were incompetent as shit, but I'm still surprised it took his campaign so long to reach out to Warren.

What a joke.

They seriously didn't reach out to Warren until after she dropped out? Unbelievable.

And this is the guy that people seriously think was going to pass all this massive, complex legislation? He's not even capable of managing a campaign!

What a joke indeed.
 

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
93,025

twitter.com

Steadman™ on Twitter

“AOC on no Warren endorsement: "I come from the lens of an organizer, and if someone doesn’t do what you want, you don’t blame them — you ask why. And you don’t demand that answer of that person — you reflect. And that reflection is where you can grow.” https://t.co/NsP4RXu5aS”

AOC is so great at this
 

spx54

Member
Mar 21, 2019
3,273
that buzzfeed story is so depressing. Bernie has done a disservice to himself and the movement writ large. this was a once in a generation opportunity, and he completely fucked it up.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
It's kinda amazing how opposed we are on this. You see Sanders being able to have disagreements with people while still seeing the good in them as a fault. I see it as a character strength.

He can have that, and I agree it's a character strength. What he can't do is go soft on obviously flawed people when they'll have a material impact on billions simply because they're friends. Sanders, if he learned this lesson at all by now, learned it too late. He hates to make things personal, and prefers to let the idea stay and message speak for itself, but you can and will hurt not only yourself but others if you pull a punch you'd have otherwise thrown for good reason.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Every politician, including Bernie, is "responsible for all sorts of ghoulish shit." That is unfortunately the truth of politics, it can never be perfect.

Relatively speaking with variance in severity and specificity between candidates, yes. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't go hard on Biden for any number of issues where he is outright wrong.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
He can have that, and I agree it's a character strength. What he can't do is go soft on obviously flawed people when they'll have a material impact on billions simply because they're friends. Sanders, if he learned this lesson at all by now, learned it too late. He hates to make things personal, and prefers to let the idea stay and message speak for itself, but you can and will hurt not only yourself but others if you pull a punch you'd have otherwise thrown for good reason.
Then this is another area we differ. I'm absolutely sure Bernie's mistake is that his campaign was too combative and too small, he need to be more welcoming and open to win. Not more negative.
 

thoughthaver

Banned
Feb 6, 2020
434
Every politician, including Bernie, is "responsible for all sorts of ghoulish shit." That is unfortunately the truth of politics, it can never be perfect.
this mindset is how the camps wound up happening and why i fully expect biden to not shut them down and for the moderates to defend their existence. after all, nothing can be perfect.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Then this is another area we differ. I'm absolutely sure Bernie's mistake is that his campaign was too combative and too small, he need to be more welcoming and open to win. Not more negative.

I guess so because I think he needed to be more open and welcoming to the establishment while not pulling his punch's against Biden specifically.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
You can say all of that first paragraph. It's doesnt change that you're pushing a logical fallacy.

Sanders had no such problems in his first couple states, the factors that made South Carolina harder for his were regionally specific. You didn't see those kinds of numbers for Texas, as an example. Which again is why to GOP massively surprised the nonwhite vote before ST.

The numbers that Sanders is getting now is entirely the result of (well executed) in party engineering and voters respond to the news of big wins and loses. Biden got a big bump for SC, a state he was always expected to win, which helped his position elsewhere, but it wasn't enough. So, the establishment closed ranks quickly which played well with late deciding voters, giving Biden an even bigger bounce from upsetting ST, which then has a ripple effect elsewhere. Votes aren't cast in a vaccum.

Sanders reluctance isn't about nonwhites or whites, it's about the ghoulish establishment that is incrementing everyone to their graves.
Sanders' problems with black voters were absolutely NOT regional!

In 2016 Bernie lost black voters in SC 14/86. He would lose them nationally 25/75. SC was worse than average, but it was still a harbinger of margins that would singlehandedly make Sanders unviable for the nomination.

In 2020 Bernie lost black voters in SC 17/61. And again, this has been a harbinger for his races in other states. In Michigan, for instance, Bernie's numbers with black voters are almost exactly the same as they were in 2016.

This issue has absolutely nothing to do with the "establishment" or a ripple effect, or engineering. Bernie barely budged his numbers in SC. He went from 14% to 17&, strongly suggesting national numbers would follow a similar pattern. Moderates closed ranks in reaction to the data, the voters moved the candidates, not vice versa.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Sanders' problems with black voters were absolutely NOT regional!

In 2016 Bernie lost black voters in SC 14/86. He would lose them nationally 25/75. SC was worse than average, but it was still a harbinger of margins that would singlehandedly make Sanders unviable for the nomination.

In 2020 Bernie lost black voters in SC 17/61. And again, this has been a harbinger for his races in other states. In Michigan, for instance, Bernie's numbers with black voters are almost exactly the same as they were in 2016.

This issue has absolutely nothing to do with the "establishment" or a ripple effect, or engineering. Bernie barely budged his numbers in SC. He went from 14% to 17&, strongly suggesting national numbers would follow a similar pattern. Moderates closed ranks in reaction to the data, the voters moved the candidates, not vice versa.

You can think this, but it means that you're rejecting the very concept of bounces so there isn't much more to say really. SC has been trending more conservative over time, that was the biggest issue for Sanders.
 

The Mad Mango

Member
Oct 27, 2017
798
A guy who barely campaigned anywhere, had minimal campaign contributions and nonexistent grassroots enthusiasm, whose bold vision for the country is "to restore its soul" (???), and who sounds like Grandpa Simpson on the debate stage is winning.

You can't say God doesn't have a sense of humor.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
You can think this, but it means that you're rejecting the very concept of bounces. SC has been trending more conservative over time, that was the biggest issue for Sanders.
No, I am not. Bernie's loss in SC was not due to the state being "conservative" - Bernie won West Virginia in 2016! There was no bounce involved - the only intervening event between Nevada and SC was Clyburn's endorsement. Bernie lost the state because Bernie won over very few black voters between 2016 and 2020, and that's a pattern that's been playing out nationally in all subsequent states.
 

ChippyTurtle

Banned
Oct 13, 2018
4,773
I guess so because I think he needed to be more open and welcoming to the establishment while not pulling his punch's against Biden specifically.

The dude never made outreach to the big unions according to the article. Yeah, they are in DNC's camp but still....effort counts.

AOC will be a better standard for Progressives to rally behind.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
I agree with you!


I think its fair to say the platform is progressive and getting more progressive, but people suspicious that Joe will actually follow through also have a point
The problem is it's NOT just about joe. He is a small piece in ANY sweeping legislation. The house and senate yet again get forgotten about every damn time people bring up the president. They literally hold the keys to progress in this country. Not just the president.
 

Midnight Jon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,161
Ohio

Slayven

Never read a comic in his life
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
93,025
You can think this, but it means that you're rejecting the very concept of bounces so there isn't much more to say really. SC has been trending more conservative over time, that was the biggest issue for Sanders.
trending conservative makes no sense when he goes on Fox News.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
The problem is it's NOT just about joe. He is a small piece in ANY sweeping legislation. The house and senate yet again get forgotten about every damn time people bring up the president. They literally hold the keys to progress in this country. Not just the president.
"Just let Nancy do it" is a lesson Obama learned from the ACA.
 

The Adder

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,086
"Just let Nancy do it" is a lesson Obama learned from the ACA.
The lesson Pelosi has learned will hopefully be "force through something with immediate impact then go for long term".

Fixing the Tax Scam needs to be the first thing out of the gate if we get the Senate just to have an impact.
Then:
- Kill the Filibuster in the Senate
- Pass a new apportionment act based on the Wyoming rule
- DC Statehood
- Puerto Rico statehood
- Expand the circuit court to 11
- Expand the Supreme Court to 11, since we always expand them together.

Clear the field to make some rock solid reforms the year of mid-terms.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
Wyoming Rule will be a hard sell if they don't push it to like 10-20 years in the future since it's a pretty sharp reduction in members' individual power.
 

V_Arnold

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,166
Hungary
That buzzfeed article is something alright. Its up to you wether you want to believe it word for word though , cause it is full of red flags.
 

iareharSon

Member
Oct 30, 2017
8,939

twitter.com

Steadman™ on Twitter

“AOC on no Warren endorsement: "I come from the lens of an organizer, and if someone doesn’t do what you want, you don’t blame them — you ask why. And you don’t demand that answer of that person — you reflect. And that reflection is where you can grow.” https://t.co/NsP4RXu5aS”


Unlike Bernie, AOC is looking to be a savvy politician.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
A guy who barely campaigned anywhere, had minimal campaign contributions and nonexistent grassroots enthusiasm, whose bold vision for the country is "to restore its soul" (???), and who sounds like Grandpa Simpson on the debate stage is winning.

You can't say God doesn't have a sense of humor.
It makes sense when you realize that polls had that guy as the frontrunner for 85 percent of this race.
 

platocplx

2020 Member Elect
Member
Oct 30, 2017
36,072
"Just let Nancy do it" is a lesson Obama learned from the ACA.
you do understand that if there are enough progressives in the house. They can form a caucus to help block certain things from passing or help move things a long. its more than just the speaker, there needs to be more progressives in the house and senate.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
trending conservative makes no sense when he goes on Fox News.

That's a non sequitur. 40% of voters in the SC Dem Primary identified as conservative. That's a big issue for Sanders. Only 17% of the state identifies as Liberal.

Beyond that
South Carolina confirms huge generation gap in black support for Biden and Sanders

While Biden beat Sanders among black voters over 60 by a whopping 77% to 8%, that gap narrowed to just 40% to 36% among black voters aged 17 to 29. (Anybody who will be 18 by Election Day was allowed to vote in the primary.) On a net basis, that's an incredible 65-point differential. Luckily for Biden, in South Carolina, the older contingent was more than three times as large. So overall, Biden claimed 64% of the black vote, which made up the majority of the electorate.

South Carolina confirms huge generation gap in black support for Biden and Sanders - Washington Examiner

Black voters in South Carolina confirmed that there is a huge generational gap when it comes to their support for Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders that should shape predictions about where this crucial voting bloc may go in future Democratic contests.While Biden beat Sanders among black voters over...

Keeping in mind that South Carolina is an open Primary.
No, I am not. Bernie's loss in SC was not due to the state being "conservative" - Bernie won West Virginia in 2016! There was no bounce involved - the only intervening event between Nevada and SC was Clyburn's endorsement. Bernie lost the state because Bernie won over very few black voters between 2016 and 2020, and that's a pattern that's been playing out nationally in all subsequent states.

Agree to disagree then. You're underestimating what an impact winning has. 538s modelling, based on historical data, had a list of the most important events in the primary based upon the bounces they would generate elsewhere.

Iowa, SC, and Super Tuesday were all up top. Perception influences people. Similarly voters in primaries will often let the field know when they've decided enough is enough, mich like how Trump just started snowballing in states he had previously not been expected to win. You view every vote as a confirmation of reality, I'm telling you things don't work like that and cause and effect have massive impacts on how people end up voting.
 

Fat4all

Woke up, got a money tag, swears a lot
Member
Oct 25, 2017
92,571
here
biden is pretty much a name brand candy bar, people will buy it without even looking at the lable
 
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