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Oct 27, 2017
17,973
Premiums were always going to increase. ACA wasn't changing the fundamental nature of for profit insurance, it increased the insured pool so premium increases were defrayed some by more people paying into the system. That's the idea of the "affordable" part.

Premiums for the average healthcare plan would be almost twice what they are currently without the ACA.

ACA didn't raise premiums in and of itself, it relatively is cheaper than the old system's projections. But people aren't paying those premiums, they're paying post-ACA premiums, so they conflate that with them rising. They don't really care that they're rising more slowly than they would without the ACA.

Find my post earlier in the thread. With all the plan changes I experienced, every movement was an opportunity to raise. Especially after being laid off. They were raised, I paid them. I have yet another new provider and plan in 2020. Please don't tell me what I did and didn't pay, thank you.
 

mugurumakensei

Elizabeth, I’m coming to join you!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,328
I knew it was bad for Bernie but goddamn.


Hopefully he has the good mind to drop out tomorrow so we can focus on the GOP. I'm tired of wasting time, we need to consolidate and start planning a good strategy to beat Trump in November because all of this is for nothing it the Orange Turd gets reelected.

also hammers home just how unlikeable Hillary Clinton was and how 30 years of right wing lies tarnishing her image was
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
Find my post earlier in the thread. With all the plan changes I experienced, every movement was an opportunity to raise. Especially after being laid off. They were raised, I paid them. I have yet another new provider and plan in 2020. Please don't tell me what I did and didn't pay, thank you.

I'm not telling you what you paid. I'm telling you what the ACA does. I know your premiums rose. Mind did too. They always were going to rise.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Portraying Biden supporters as "people who didn't pay much attention to the primary process" isn't a very good look.

Not all Biden supporters obviously. My point was that those who weren't paying attention (which is a large portion of voters) and made their choice at the last minute naturally leaned towards him since they largely valued electability and saw him as the safe choice.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
There's zero evidence that primary voters weren't paying attention. They were paying close attention and decided that Biden was the one when he showed that his African American support was real.

This isn't true. All you have to do is look at polls that included he option for 'do not know' of notSanders/Biden Candidates. Another indicator is how people and thequestion of how informed they are or how closely they follow politics, or even internet search frequency by terms.

The majority of voters start paying attention and making up their minds very close to the vote, and having the entire establishment close ranks for Biden on the eve of ST, with Biden just coming off a big win (that he was ALWAYS expected to get even after he flamed out) was the perfect recipe for swaying late deciding voters in droves. There was no chance for the race to recalibrate to Sanders v Biden.

Then you have a progressive candidate dropping out and NOT endorsing the other progressive.

On top of that, you had the GOP closing hundreds of polling station in Texas on the eve of the vote, targeting the non white and younger areas. Sanders was overall expected to lead in those areas with a sizeable margin. Say goodbye a win in Texas. It was heartwarming to see the GOP reach across the aisle for once!

So following the snowball along you then have Biden winning ST and voters desire to see thing 'over' coming into play. The margins we are seeing are a result, not a baseline indication of much that can speak to the merits of each campaign or the opinions of voters 'all things equal'.
 
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Tuxedotank

Member
Jan 9, 2018
273

Man, this is just infuriating to read. This is like the "trump didn't say it was quid pro quo" when the subtext in the transcripts is obvious. There are studies that show M4A would be financially viable but he doesn't address that. The fact that I'm paying $400 more to taxes instead of $400 more to insurance doesn't mean "M4A will raise taxes on the middle class" is an acceptable answer.

People claiming that Biden would be a figurehead for the kinds of progressive policies that millions of Americans want are either arguing in bad faith or aren't aware of the runaround most democratic officials give regular citizens.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Not all Biden supporters obviously. My point was that those who weren't paying attention (which is a large portion of voters) and made their choice at the last minute naturally leaned towards him since they largely valued electability and saw him as the safe choice.
So what you're saying is that Bernie supporters are naturally more enlightened about the issues and that's why they support him, right?
 

turtle553

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,227
I don't buy the midterms have any sort of relation to what we're going to see in the presidential election, history shows that you can't use it as a predictor.

We'll see how many people are showing up to Trump rallies vs. Biden rallies when the time comes. Joe Biden is not going to inspire left wing activists to get out on the streets and do the political work that needs to be done to win in a general election.

Attendance at rallies means nothing. Compare Bernie rallies to Biden and then look at polls for tomorrow.

Nobody is really deciding between candidates at this point. People know who they'll vote for if they decide to vote. People want Trump gone and he's not gaining new supporters. He has a hard floor at about 42% without having a chance to break45%.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
I'd argue that Trump himself will inspire activists to get on the streets, we don't need Biden for that. The hatred for Trump is very real and a lot of people simply want him out as the polls after Super Tuesday are showing. People have had enough of him.

He was pretty severely hated in 2016 by Democrats as well. I think Trump is actually coming in stronger than he was in 2016 since he has the complete and full backing of the Republican party. His approval rating among the GOP is at historical highs, he's going to come in with an insane amount of energy. In 2016 there was still a never Trumper wing in the party that was bitter about what went down in the primary and a speaker of the house (Paul Ryan) who was very apprehensive about Trump, but not anymore. The GOP is Trump at this point.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
So what you're saying is that Bernie supporters are naturally more enlightened about the issues and that's why they support him, right?

What? Not what I'm saying at all. My point is that casual voters who don't pay much attention tend to lean towards the safer choice. The narrative has been that Biden is the safer choice, so why would it be unsurprising if they leaned in that direction?
 

Deleted member 16365

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,127
Man, this is just infuriating to read. This is like the "trump didn't say it was quid pro quo" when the subtext in the transcripts is obvious. There are studies that show M4A would be financially viable but he doesn't address that. The fact that I'm paying $400 more to taxes instead of $400 more to insurance doesn't mean "M4A will raise taxes on the middle class" is an acceptable answer.

People claiming that Biden would be a figurehead for the kinds of progressive policies that millions of Americans want are either arguing in bad faith or aren't aware of the runaround most democratic officials give regular citizens.

But the thing is that it wouldn't just be $400. And you might be able to afford that, but most families cannot. That's what he's saying. He would veto a Senate compromised bill that didn't have a clear plan to pay for itself without fucking over middle and lower income families.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
He was pretty severely hated in 2016 by Democrats as well. I think Trump is actually coming in stronger than he was in 2016 since he has the complete and full backing of the Republican party. His approval rating among the GOP is at historical highs, he's going to come in with an insane amount of energy. In 2016 there was still a never Trumper wing in the party that was bitter about what went down in the primary and a speaker of the house (Paul Ryan) who was very apprehensive about Trump, but not anymore. The GOP is Trump at this point.

They always were. Even people like Mitt Romney who voted to impeach Donald Trump vote better than 90 percent of time with him. He won the GOP primary comfortably in 2016, he is their party and always was.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
What? Not what I'm saying at all. My point is that casual voters who don't pay much attention tend to lean towards the safer choice. The narrative has been that Biden is the safer choice, so why would it be unsurprising if they leaned in that direction?
You are fundamentally saying that Biden voters are less informed than Bernie voters on average.
 
Oct 31, 2017
3,287
He was pretty severely hated in 2016 by Democrats as well. I think Trump is actually coming in stronger than he was in 2016 since he has the complete and full backing of the Republican party. His approval rating among the GOP is at historical highs, he's going to come in with an insane amount of energy. In 2016 there was still a never Trumper wing in the party that was bitter about what went down in the primary and a speaker of the house (Paul Ryan) who was very apprehensive about Trump, but not anymore. The GOP is Trump at this point.
You have a point when you say he has full control of the GOP and that could be an advantage for him but I would argue that he has lost a lot of moderates and Independents in the three years he has been in office. He hasn't really grown his base since 2016 and instead his wild swing to the far right has alienated a lot of people that falsely thought he would be a moderate when comparing him to Hillary. Those people he lost are who I believe are coming out in droves to vote for Biden on Super Tuesday. These people disillusioned with the failures of Trump are part of the new coalition that will make Biden a formidable opponent for Trump in November. I believe even Trump himself knows this, and that's why he risked it all to take out Biden before he got caught and impeached last year.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Attendance at rallies means nothing. Compare Bernie rallies to Biden and then look at polls for tomorrow.

Nobody is really deciding between candidates at this point. People know who they'll vote for if they decide to vote. People want Trump gone and he's not gaining new supporters. He has a hard floor at about 42% without having a chance to break45%.

I definitely disagree. Activism, enthusiasm, rallies, and all of that mean a lot. It builds your narrative, increases your fundraising numbers, and helps your ground game when you're trying to get people out to vote. It's not everything, but it's extremely significant, particularly in a general election.
 

Deleted member 24149

Oct 29, 2017
2,150
Sounds like he's saying he'd veto it because he can't come up with $35 trillion in 10 years. It was some crazy word salad, but that's the interpretation I came up with.
It's a weird statement to make because you'd think Congress would have an explanation of how they were paying for it in there somewhere.
 

Oniletter

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,245
Ok, I have to ask after reading the last few pages...do any of you know how to convince people? Like...at all? Reading this it would seem some of you really think that you can shame someone into voting. That has been a losing strategy for years. It doesn't work. Shaming people is more likely to get them to ground their heels and double down. Maybe it's like me where we don't care about convincing but it really seems like some of you take pride in shaming others to the point where they triple down so you can be right rather than actually take the time and effort to convince people.
People drilling the actual consequences of buster nonsense into some of people's thick heads is absolutely a ok in my book. It's about forcing the weight of their choice on people.

"Shaming me into voting". Nobody asks you to marry the Democratic nominee or turn you into some massive ultrafan. People want you to come to the realisation that at the end of the day either the democratic or the republican nominee will be president. Wailing and crying about the system and how some of your values aren't represented won't change that fact, the election will still be held. One option for president is significantly worse than the other. It's not rocket science what's the only decent action you are left with.

If Bernie supporters get to say "a vote for Biden in the primary is a vote for people dying " in this very thread then people are certainly allowed to call the buster shit what it is and list what that actual consequences are even if it makes you feel uncomfortable.
 
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Oct 28, 2018
573
You are fundamentally saying that Biden voters are less informed than Bernie voters on average.

The candidate with the highest name recognition will always by definition have the least informed voters on average. It's why name recognition is so important, it attracts voters who may know little to nothing about any of the other candidates.
 

El Bombastico

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
36,051
I definitely disagree. Activism, enthusiasm, rallies, and all of that mean a lot. It builds your narrative, increases your fundraising numbers, and helps your ground game when you're trying to get people out to vote. It's not everything, but it's extremely significant, particularly in a general election.

And yet, Sanders is still going to lose, BADLY, tomorrow. Sounds like Biden has far more enthusiasm.
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
Again, I really want to underline here the hilarity of calling people voting in primaries "casual" voters when the percentage of people who vote in primaries is significantly lower than the percentage that vote in the general election.

It's like railing on the "casual gamers" who pre-ordered a next-gen system.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
The candidate with the highest name recognition will always by definition have the least informed voters on average. It's why name recognition is so important, it attracts voters who may know little to nothing about any of the other candidates.
Both Biden and Bernie have the same name rec. They've had it from the start. That's why they were both on top for nearly the entire primary.
 

AdrianG4

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
565
I can understand if Bernie wants to take advantage of the one on one debate opportunity with Joe Biden this week, but I hope that this primary season ends after March 17 if Bernie can not win Michigan tomorrow (I personally just want to see if Bernie can win Arizona, with our high hispanic population)
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
We've had threads on Era concerning the myth of the "low information" voter, and the voter that "makes up their mind at the last moment." It's already been explained to you who is hurt by these comments, and in what ways. Yet we're still seeing these comments being made.

And now people are adding "bad faith" to the mix. Especially with upcoming votes where many people will be voting their SECOND or THIRD choice, not their first. Some may not feel they even have a choice by the time they get to vote. This is neither low-information nor last-minute consideration.

This entire notion doesn't hold up and it should have stopped a while ago.
 
Oct 31, 2017
3,287
The candidate with the highest name recognition will always by definition have the least informed voters on average. It's why name recognition is so important, it attracts voters who may know little to nothing about any of the other candidates.
This is Bernie's second run for the Presidency, I believe he has 100% name recognition. People know very well who he is and where he stands. Unfortunately for him, the rest of the party doesn't believe he is electable in a high stakes general election.
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
Florida, Florida, Florida, Florida

Obama won Florida twice barely by 1.8% points.
Trump won Florida by 2%.
dial it back to 200, it was a fuckin' tie tipped by the Supreme Court for Dubya.

IMO, Joe Biden can deliver on Florida in November, something that Bernie Sanders cannot do due to history of remarks about Fidel Castro.

If Wisconsin and Ohio are fucked, I believe Florida can be saved /
Joe was born in Pennsylvania, so PA goes back to Blue
 

darz1

Member
Dec 18, 2017
7,093
Every time I enter this thread I am reminded of what a complete shitshow American elections are. Its like watching a snake eating it's own tail. Sure some noms are far better than other noms, but for fucks sake get it together.

You got Biden supporters shouting down any other nominee base solely on popularity and "electabilty" whatever the fuck that means, you got Bernie supporters tearing Biden to shreds at every opportunity despite him giving mostly non answers to most questions asked like most politicians would give, then you got Hillary supporters (despite the fact that she isnt even running) still stuck in 2016 chiming in just to shit on Bernie and his supporters and offering nothing constructive to the conversation.

Seriously, America, get your shit together
 

PlanetSmasher

The Abominable Showman
Member
Oct 25, 2017
115,742
We've had threads on Era concerning the myth of the "low information" voter, and the voter that "makes up their mind at the last moment." It's already been explained to you who is hurt by these comments, and in what ways. Yet we're still seeing these comments being made.

And now people are adding "bad faith" to the mix. Especially with upcoming votes where many people will be voting their SECOND or THIRD choice, not their first. Some may not feel they even have a choice by the time they get to vote. This is neither low-information nor last-minute consideration.

This entire notion doesn't hold up and it should have stopped a while ago.

Yup. I don't even get to vote for a candidate I care about in the IL primary next week. If I even bother at all it'd pretty much just be a throwaway vote for Biden but I don't have any investment in him beyond just wanting someone to beat Trump. We're already past the point of me being able to picture a good President out of this primary.
 

Tuxedotank

Member
Jan 9, 2018
273
But the thing is that it wouldn't just be $400. And you might be able to afford that, but most families cannot. That's what he's saying. He would veto a Senate compromised bill that didn't have a clear plan to pay for itself without fucking over middle and lower income families.
I'm making the point that increased taxes aren't a good metric for the viability of M4A. I guarantee Bernie's plan would not fuck over lower income families--and I guarantee a lot of families would prefer the increased taxes from M4A to running gofundme campaigns for cancer treatment and rationing insulin.
 
May 26, 2018
24,021
Yup. I don't even get to vote for a candidate I care about in the IL primary next week. If I even bother at all it'd pretty much just be a throwaway vote for Biden but I don't have any investment in him beyond just wanting someone to beat Trump. We're already past the point of me being able to picture a good President out of this primary.

All we can really hope for is a system that repairs itself and tries to get back on its feet before the next haymaker comes. It's not a great hope by any means, but it seems to be all we have today.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,090
Every time I enter this thread I am reminded of what a complete shitshow American elections are. Its like watching a snake eating it's own tail. Sure some noms are far better than other noms, but for fucks sake get it together.

You got Biden supporters shouting down any other nominee base solely on popularity and "electabilty" whatever the fuck that means, you got Bernie supporters tearing Biden to shreds at every opportunity despite him giving mostly non answers to most questions asked like most politicians would give, then you got Hillary supporters (despite the fact that she isnt even running) still stuck in 2016 chiming in just to shit on Bernie and his supporters and offering nothing constructive to the conversation.

Seriously, America, get your shit together
It's getting pretty bad can't see anyone uniting after this primary is over. Having the coronavirus happen right on top of it is just gonna make things worse. The generational gap between voter's interest is just getting more apparent.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
It's getting pretty bad can't see anyone uniting after this primary is over. Having the coronavirus happen right on top of it is just gonna make things worse. The generational gap between voter's interest is just getting more apparent.
Note: none of the people conversing here are the average voter. The average Bernie voter likes Biden, the average Biden voter likes Bernie, Bernie himself is friends with Biden.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,515
Florida, Florida, Florida, Florida

Obama won Florida twice barely by 1.8% points.
Trump won Florida by 2%.
dial it back to 200, it was a fuckin' tie tipped by the Supreme Court for Dubya.

IMO, Joe Biden can deliver on Florida in November, something that Bernie Sanders cannot do due to history of remarks about Fidel Castro.

If Wisconsin and Ohio are fucked, I believe Florida can be saved /
Joe was born in Pennsylvania, so PA goes back to Blue


I think Wisconsin goes blue too.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,459
Bernie could have won if he ran a good campaign problem is he didn't and now has very little chance. This is all on Bernie nobody else that biden will probably be the nominee.
I mean, this is *at least* debatable. Biden's surge off the back of a sleep-walk of a campaign shows us that campaigning only counts for so much, or at least that the efficacy of certain types of outreach is limited. this wasn't crystal clear until Super Tuesday. There's a reason this is unprecedented.
 

Deleted member 31817

Nov 7, 2017
30,876
I'd argue that Trump himself will inspire activists to get on the streets, we don't need Biden for that. The hatred for Trump is very real and a lot of people simply want him out as the polls after Super Tuesday are showing. People have had enough of him.
This is why I'm not optimistic for 2022 at all. Our Senate map is pretty good thankfully but oof.
 

PlanetSmasher

The Abominable Showman
Member
Oct 25, 2017
115,742
I mean, this is *at least* debatable. Biden's surge off the back of a sleep-walk of a campaign shows us that campaigning only counts for so much, or at least that the efficacy of certain types of outreach is limited. this wasn't crystal clear until Super Tuesday. There's a reason this is unprecedented.

At the end of the day, I think the core issue is that the hardcore progressive movement Bernie has been courting is a pretty set group of people, whereas Biden has basically soaked up the bulk of everyone else. Some people just want to vote for someone they think can beat Trump, some people want to vote for someone they know, and some people don't really give a shit either way.

Bernie had to widen his net and he really seems to be incapable of doing that. His entire campaign strategy was to pray the field remained fragmented enough that he'd be able to hold a plurality in a brokered convention, and that was a pretty foolish idea because the entire Democratic party seems to be uniting around one concept: beating Trump. If you're not willing to try and court people outside of your base, you can't exactly act surprised when the REST of the Democratic voterbase starts to coalesce around a different plan.
 

Lothars

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,765
I mean, this is *at least* debatable. Biden's surge off the back of a sleep-walk of a campaign shows us that campaigning only counts for so much, or at least that the efficacy of certain types of outreach is limited. this wasn't crystal clear until Super Tuesday. There's a reason this is unprecedented.
I don't think it is debatable, This was Bernie's contest to lose and he did so in spectacular fashion. He has almost a less chance of than he did in 2016 and It looked like that he would have been the nominee. I'm not a fan of Biden but it's a combination of how he ran his campaign and how bernie has squandered his.
 
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