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Oct 28, 2018
573
I mean, Sanders would know.



This is politics, mostly. Also, just how humans operate, as well as the appeal of New Years Resolutions.

Voting =/= activism. Having a core base of activists is extremely important, they fight for you and work to mobilize the vote. A lot of younger people were apathetic and didn't show up to vote, but that doesn't take away the importance of the energy behind those that did.
 

Wordballoons

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
1,061
We have a public health crisis allegedly destroying everyone's 401ks and mental sanity right now and people are complaining about taxes. What is wrong with America
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Yeah I know what his argument is.

I just think he isn't being very honest saying his objection to M4A is that it'd raise the tax burden on the middle class.

Pretty much any health care initiative is liable to do that. Obamacare did that (and called it a penalty). A public option would likely do it.
Warren did the same thing with M4A, Biden's just easier to sell no middle class tax increases.
The main drain on ACA popularity was that it drove up premiums and forced a bunch of otherwise uninsured Americans into high deductible catastrophe insurance instead of providing actual health care to anyone. It sucked and we should have focused more on financial reform first or nuked the filibuster so we could have gotten a public option.
See, that's actually false. The ACA is total shit, but premiums were already going sky-high before it was passed. The ACA is total shit, but it outlawed the worst, most useless plans available (Which pissed people off because apparently they liked their below shit-tier insurance and "Obama lied") even if it still allows plans that are nearly worthless.

But, yeah, in hindsight, nuking the filibuster would've been better, but it's hard to sell that in the middle of a financial crisis when you on-paper already have a filibuster ignoring majority and a lot of those Senators would winge pointlessly about how it'd hurt them in their election (when they'd later lose their seats by running AWAY from Obama, cause brain-geniuses there).
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
yeah well I'll trade enthusiasm for actual fucking votes any day

Actual votes in a primary from people who were largely undecided and scared will not translate in the general. People who didn't pay much attention to the primary process ran to the candidate they saw as the safest at the last moment, that's all that Biden's resurgence was. It's a false sense of security. Just watch what happens when the spotlight is solely on Joe for 5 months, it's going to be a train wreck.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
Biden's resurgence was fueled by fear of Sanders. Replace Biden with just about any establishment Dem and we would have seen the same thing. Biden just happened to have the most name recognition and a false sense of safety associated with him.
Yes, and that's on Bernie. His campaign wasn't even a campaign. It was a multi-million dollar effort to appeal to people who already liked Sanders.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
The main drain on ACA popularity was that it drove up premiums and forced a bunch of otherwise uninsured Americans into high deductible catastrophe insurance instead of providing actual health care to anyone. It sucked and we should have focused more on financial reform first or nuked the filibuster so we could have gotten a public option.

It didn't drive up premiums, it actually slowed the rate of premium growth. Risky bet because people won't think of slower rising premiums as a deal because they don't feel the material difference, but hey. The PPACA actually does a bunch of smaller things that people now take for granted, including both hospital and insurance transparency, and people don't give enough credit to how much it expanded Medicaid and Medicare in the states with sane governors.

PPACA isn't enough, and the criticism of it is fair. But there's a lot of misconceptions out there.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Yes, and that's on Bernie. His campaign wasn't even a campaign. It was a multi-million dollar effort to appeal to people who already liked Sanders.

I'm not here to say Bernie ran some sort of stellar campaign, he obviously didn't. My point is that Biden doesn't have the same level of enthusiasm that Trump is going to have and it's going to make it very, very difficult in the general.
 

Jiggy

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
9,287
wherever
For the longest time Bernie bros claimed this wasn't the case. Good to know we can all agree they gave us Trump.

Ah yes, some rando online is perfect evidence. If you actually look at the data then you'll know the number of Bernie -> Hillary voters were in line with Hillary -> Obama. Let's not promote willful ignorance over the facts. Bernie will endorse Biden, Biden will reach out to the progressive wing (hopefully), and the majority of his base will vote for Joe. Just like last time.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
I'm not here to say Bernie ran some sort of stellar campaign, he obviously didn't. My point is that Biden doesn't have the same level of enthusiasm that Trump is going to have and it's going to make it very, very difficult in the general.

Democrats "get Trump the fuck outta there" energy is very very high right now.
 

sangreal

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,890
The main drain on ACA popularity was that it drove up premiums and forced a bunch of otherwise uninsured Americans into high deductible catastrophe insurance instead of providing actual health care to anyone. It sucked and we should have focused more on financial reform first or nuked the filibuster so we could have gotten a public option.

It also didn't help that, in addition to blaming every premium increase on the ACA, employers were very publicly slashing hours to avoid meeting the employer mandate threshold for FTEs. The exchange rollout was an unmitigated disaster too
 

Indiana Jones

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,177
Actual votes in a primary from people who were largely undecided and scared will not translate in the general. People who didn't pay much attention to the primary process ran to the candidate they saw as the safest at the last moment, that's all that Biden's resurgence was. It's a false sense of security. Just watch what happens when the spotlight is solely on Joe for 5 months, it's going to be a train wreck.

There's zero evidence that primary voters weren't paying attention. They were paying close attention and decided that Biden was the one when he showed that his African American support was real.
 

Imperfected

Member
Nov 9, 2017
11,737
Actual votes in a primary from people who were largely undecided and scared will not translate in the general. People who didn't pay much attention to the primary process ran to the candidate they saw as the safest at the last moment, that's all that Biden's resurgence was. It's a false sense of security. Just watch what happens when the spotlight is solely on Joe for 5 months, it's going to be a train wreck.

This seem to be ignoring the (casually) observable reality that more people vote in the general election than primaries. If they're scared, why would they bother coming out for an election that may not matter at all, and then sit out the main event?
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
I'm personally of the opinion that the average voter in all voting blocs are actually pretty damn uninformed, regardless of their favored candidate.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
Democrats "keep Trump the fuck outta here" in 2016 was also very high. Didn't work out too well. And it's not going to help that Biden is going to continue to stumble over himself over and over and lose enthusiasm along the way.

I mean, yeah. Clinton got the second most votes in history, the energy was there. But you see it this year in voters who gave Trump the benefit of the doubt, or stayed home in 2016. Turnout is up, they're voting like D+10, which is a significant mandate. Suburbs are showing up D at the polls. The data is there.
 

Deleted member 16365

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
4,127
Ah yes, some rando online is perfect evidence. If you actually look at the data then you'll know the number of Bernie -> Hillary voters were in line with Hillary -> Obama. Let's not promote willful ignorance over the facts. Bernie will endorse Biden, Biden will reach out to the progressive wing (hopefully), and the majority of his base will vote for Joe. Just like last time.

Lighten up, Francis. I was pointing out a dumb thing someone said online that Biden was going to lose because of Bernie's supporters who weren't going to show up for him.

I guess I could have said "well they didn't show up for Bernie either" but I thought flippant was better than mean.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,515
Actual votes in a primary from people who were largely undecided and scared will not translate in the general. People who didn't pay much attention to the primary process ran to the candidate they saw as the safest at the last moment, that's all that Biden's resurgence was. It's a false sense of security. Just watch what happens when the spotlight is solely on Joe for 5 months, it's going to be a train wreck.


Portraying Biden supporters as "people who didn't pay much attention to the primary process" isn't a very good look.
 

Surfinn

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,590
USA
Because the primary is 100% over, prolonging it at this point just is going to give the hardcore Bernie fans false hope and will make losing even harder. The sooner we can focus on beating Trump the better imo.

My favorite candidate was Warren, her flaming out was crushing. Now I just wanna focus on defeating the GOP.
Why not vote for the person who has the most progressive agenda in the primary? There is literally no reason to vote for a centrist right now. You get to vote for him in the general (assuming he wins). If you care about progressive politics you vote Bernie Sanders in the primary.
 
Oct 31, 2017
3,287
I'm not here to say Bernie ran some sort of stellar campaign, he obviously didn't. My point is that Biden doesn't have the same level of enthusiasm that Trump is going to have and it's going to make it very, very difficult in the general.
Is this based in any reality at all? Do you have any facts to back this up or are you going with your feelings? Because 2018 midterm election disagree with this. It was moderates that took back the house in 2018. Election turnout at Super Tuesday also disagrees with you because many of the new voters that came out to vote last week were heavily for Biden. The disdain for Trump right now is very high, you can't compare where we are now to where we were in 2016. Trump is no longer a new candidate, he's an incumbent and right now under his watch the economy is tanking and we are in the middle of an epidemic (the house is literally on fire at his watch).

To say Trump would coast to victory under today's political climate is disingenuous because there are a lot of factors at play in 2020 that weren't in play in 2016. People have had time to assess what a Trump Presidency is like under the three years we've had the moron in office and people right now are sick of it hence the higher voter turnout and people itching to toss him out of the White House. Voters are itching for a return to normalcy and we are seeing that in the higher voter turnout.
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
It didn't drive up premiums, it actually slowed the rate of premium growth. Risky bet because people won't think of slower rising premiums as a deal because they don't feel the material difference, but hey. The PPACA actually does a bunch of smaller things that people now take for granted, including both hospital and insurance transparency, and people don't give enough credit to how much it expanded Medicaid and Medicare in the states with sane governors.

PPACA isn't enough, and the criticism of it is fair. But there's a lot of misconceptions out there.

It drove up premiums too. I paid them.
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Obama had a positive approval rating by 2012.

Trump's is in the negative and we're about to head into a recession and a pandemic at the same time.

Obama Gallup rolling approval ratings at this same time in 2012 is actually very similar to where Trump is at right now. It's give or take a few points, Obama didn't have widespread approval whatsoever. Trump also gets to run against Biden who is a significantly weaker candidate than Romney in my opinion.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
Bernie supporters should absolutely support Bernie until he drops out. That's what the primary is for.

Support your vision for the Democratic party. That's the job. And hopefully if your guy loses, you support the party through your vision locally or at the state level downballot, and advocate for your beliefs for Dem Party going forward.
 

Zombegoast

Member
Oct 30, 2017
14,239
As mentioned yesterday morning.

Pundit, candidates and leaders in the party all turned against Bernie since day 1. With Hillary never shutting about him for her failure.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Compared to who? Like we can't even get people to go to a candidate's site for their policies.
I'd wager the vast majority of people here haven't read through anybody's policy pages
I agree. But, you see, even with that caveat the average poster in this thread pays more attention to politics than the average voter because the average voter doesn't spend precious free time looking into politics because, as Rasta mentioned, they have better things to do.

CAVEAT: I feel like people are paying more attention now than ever courtesy of Trump.
 

Kirblar

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
30,744
As mentioned yesterday morning.

Pundit, candidates and leaders in the party all turned against Bernie since day 1. With Hillary never shutting about him for her failure.
That's what happens when you publicly say anyone in the party is the enemy and you're attempting a hostile takeover.

Form a coalition instead of trying to barge your way in.
 

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,956
not necessarily. many countries aren't always rebuilding themselves every other election cycle after a disastrous administration fucked everything up. football teams too.

I wouldn't know - I don't really follow football, and I'm from the UK, so pretty much every election is an exercise in disappointment. :p
 
Oct 28, 2018
573
Is this based in any reality at all? Do you have any facts to back this up or are you going with your feelings? Because 2018 midterm election disagree with this. It was moderates that took back the house in 2018. Election turnout at Super Tuesday also disagrees with you because many of the new voters that came out to vote last week were heavily for Biden. The disdain for Trump right now is very high, you can't compare where we are now to where we were in 2016. Trump is no longer a new candidate, he's an incumbent and right now under his watch the economy is tanking and we are in the middle of an epidemic (the house is literally on fire at his watch).

To say Trump would coast to victory under today's political climate is disingenuous because there are a lot of factors at play in 2020 that weren't in play in 2016. People have had time to assess what a Trump Presidency is like under the three years we've had the moron in office and people right now are sick of it hence the higher voter turnout and people itching to toss him out of the White House. Voters are itching for a return to normalcy and we are seeing that in the higher voter turnout.

I don't buy the midterms have any sort of relation to what we're going to see in the presidential election, history shows that you can't use it as a predictor.

We'll see how many people are showing up to Trump rallies vs. Biden rallies when the time comes. Joe Biden is not going to inspire left wing activists to get out on the streets and do the political work that needs to be done to win in a general election.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,515
I knew it was bad for Bernie but goddamn.


Hopefully he has the good mind to drop out tomorrow so we can focus on the GOP. I'm tired of wasting time, we need to consolidate and start planning a good strategy to beat Trump in November because all of this for nothing it the Orange Turd gets reelected.


noooooooooa I want to vote for a progressive goddammit. He can drop out after Ohio.
 

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
It drove up premiums too. I paid them.

Premiums were always going to increase. ACA wasn't changing the fundamental nature of for profit insurance, it increased the insured pool so premium increases were defrayed some by more people paying into the system. That's the idea of the "affordable" part.

Premiums for the average healthcare plan would be almost twice what they are currently without the ACA.

ACA didn't raise premiums in and of itself, it relatively is cheaper than the old system's projections. But people aren't paying those premiums, they're paying post-ACA premiums, so they conflate that with them rising. They don't really care that they're rising more slowly than they would without the ACA.
 
Oct 31, 2017
3,287
I don't buy the midterms have any sort of relation to what we're going to see in the presidential election, history shows that you can't use it as a predictor.

We'll see how many people are showing up to Trump rallies vs. Biden rallies when the time comes. Joe Biden is not going to inspire left wing activists to get out on the streets and do the political work that needs to be done to win in a general election.
I'd argue that Trump himself will inspire activists to get on the streets, we don't need Biden for that. The hatred for Trump is very real and a lot of people simply want him out as the polls after Super Tuesday are showing. People have had enough of him.
 
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