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schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
People don't hate Hillary because she's a moderate, they hate her because she's been demonized nonstop since the 1980s, and people absorb that. There's people on the right and left who basically think she's Satan, out to eat their children and rifle through their belongings. Biden has never been demonized his whole career, his time in the national spotlight was him as a very popular VP considered a likable and charming guy.

The vast majority of voters do not vote on policy no matter what they say. They vote on whether they "like" the candidate, or if they feel they dislike the other candidate so much. They tend to just make up the policies for their preferred candidate themselves., to better justify their choice and pretend it's made on logic, not emotion. The minority that do vote on policy, tend to be single issue voters.

yes- this, a thousand times this. Sadly, the Prez race is often just a likability contest. People on both ends of the spectrum have/had an insane hatred of hillary. People don't hate Uncle Joe. People like him. He has a compelling personal history. Even his gaffes which are making people in this thread think he's clinically senile in some ways add to his likability.. "oh there goes crazy uncle joe again"
 

Ortix

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,438
Is he? Trump's approval rating has been increasing since impeachment and the attacks on Biden are only going to get worse. As Cheebo pointed out the right will have a field day mocking his mental facilities, whether those attacks are justified or not. The "Vote just to stop Trump" vote wasn't strong enough to win in 2016, and that was before Trump was an incumbant.

Trump's approval is still sitting at -10 or thereabouts. The GCB polls consistently indicate a similar story, with D polling at +7-10%. Consider that +3% gives you a good shot at the EC. Biden's H2H polls put him well above Trump in swing states MI, PA, NC and indicate at least tossups in FL, AZ and WI.
 

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
Biden has always embellished stories and been incredibly gaffe prone. It is just who he is. You guys gotta cut this shit out. You are playing right into the GOP's hands.

Biden is 99.999999% our nominee, and so I don't understand what the goal in concern trolling him from the right does for you.
good luck using "it is just who he is" in the general, bc thats one of the worst ways to defend anything
 

TwoDelay

Member
Apr 6, 2018
1,326
The constant dismissal of any positive Biden news by WHADDA ABOUT 2016 is getting tiresome.

Hillary won the popular vote by millions of votes and Trump drew an inside straight to win (barely winning 3 states; dem complacency; the Comey statement 10 days from the election).

Just because 2016 happened doesn't prospectively eliminate positive polling for moderate democrats.
I think Biden can win. He is going to win the popular vote but you can't get to cocky, especially in regards to the electoral college. That's the lesson from 2016 and seems to be something the Biden campaign hasn't learnt.
 

Heromanz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
20,202
Biden has always embellished stories and been incredibly gaffe prone. It is just who he is. You guys gotta cut this shit out. You are playing right into the GOP's hands.

Biden is 99.999999% our nominee, and so I don't understand what the goal in concern trolling him from the right does for you.
Embellished? Bro. Like c'mon. The brother said he, a us senator, was arrested along with the ambassador trying to see Nelson Mandela. And was called out for lying about being arrested trying to see Mandela, apologized, and then STARTED SAYING IT AGAIN
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
Is he? Trump's approval rating has been increasing since impeachment and the attacks on Biden are only going to get worse. As Cheebo pointed out the right will have a field day mocking his mental facilities, whether those attacks are justified or not. The "Vote just to stop Trump" vote wasn't strong enough to win in 2016, and that was before Trump was an incumbant.
Trump's rating is dropping due to his catastrophic mishandling of the outbreak, and the damage its doing to the economy.
Never mind that "vote just to stop Trump" is an incomplete claim because it totally ignores that there was a significant "Vote just to stop Clinton" vote going on at the same time. You won't get that with Biden.
 

viskod

Member
Nov 9, 2017
4,398
www.realclearpolitics.com

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Have you not been aware of anything that has happened since Trump was elected or how demographics have shifted against him in both the 2018 elections and the Democratic Primary thus far?

Also you cannot compare Hillary Clinton to anyone else in good faith because Hillary Clinton carries with her so much unique hatred and suspicion the likes of which literally no other candidate will ever be burdened by.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
Are we really going to pretend that there hasn't been a decline in faculties?

This is not the same Joe Biden of 8 years ago. Not even close.
Come on, you'd have to be a neurologist you see that.

Now let me give my expert medical opinion of how Bernie's medical records aren't sufficient...
yup, its a bit disturbing actually. And we need to talk about it because this WILL come up during the general
This ain't even the same Joe from 4 years ago. Just saw an interview he did in 2016 and I'm honestly shocked. He was so articulate and relatable. Now he just repeats himself with the same phrases "here's the deal folks... that's number 1, number 2.... the fact of the matter is"
Because I don't want a man who has dementia becoming president. Duh
We're gonna do this shit on a bloody loop aren't we?



This was two weeks ago. Are you going to claim again that he "can't string together a single sentence!!!"?
When people tell you Joe Biden has been known for being a gaffe machine his whole career, believe them instead of rushing to damage your own nominee....again. Half of his gaffes are due to overcompensating for his severe stutter to begin with.
 

Modest Mauser

Member
Jan 12, 2018
210
What is your goal in concern trolling about this? The primary is effectively over, Biden won. Why beat this drum now?

Calling out a politicians lies is concern trolling? Get out of your bubble.

What a rallying cry for 2020. "Lying is just who our candidate is! Don't question it! Now fall in line and vote, peasant!"
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,053

There's so much galling stuff in there that it is taking time to digest. The overall degree of optimism that courses through his campaign is kind of impressive, but in hindsight it feels like a ridiculous Xanatos Gambit that stumbled almost every step of the way before careening into a ditch and bursting into flames by the time they got to the 4th contest.

1. We all kind of thought this, so it isn't really a mark against them.
The campaign is moving toward its internal $280 million target and savoring polls that have Sanders just behind Joe Biden, who Sanders and his team expect will only go down once he gets in the race.
Pretty much fell apart last year when Biden was the front-runner in literally every single poll over the course of 6 months.

2. This is actually kind of plausible, but 2 of the 3 early states are caucuses that are essentially Ranked Choice.
The number of candidates keeps growing, lowering how many people it would take to come in first, beyond the 15 to 20 percent of primary voters who will stick with Sanders no matter what.
like 14 of the 22 candidates never got any attention at all because media coverage of the frontrunners and Trump/Impeachment kept them frozen out.


3. Correct!
The senator from Vermont's pitch is a mix of idealism and a shouting anger about the system, but at its heart is a hard-nosed math: He's the only candidate with a sizable chunk of the electorate that won't waver, no matter what, so a field that keeps growing and splitting support keeps making things easier.

4. Um....
He's counting on winning Iowa and New Hampshire, where he was already surprisingly strong in 2016,
He tied/lost Iowa, relying on caucuses is a super bold move, and he lost half of his base relative to NH 2016, which directly and immediately contradicts Step #1.

5. Wait, what?
and hoping that Cory Booker and Kamala Harris will split the black electorate in South Carolina and give him a path to slip through there, too.
Both of his two "They're black, so they will do well in SC" dropped out months before the race. And even if Biden got literally half his vote total, he still would have won by a fairly significant margin, because Sanders got less than 20% in the state.

6. But what if somebody gets, like, 35%?
And then, Sanders aides believe, he'll easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they don't need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.

Just super optimisitc. The blood was on the well when Sanders tied in Iowa and barely won NH. The number of victory laps after the Nevada caucus were absurd. Even with a relatively crowded Super Tuesday (4 candidates over 10%), he bet it all on 30%, got 30%, and didn't really consider what the next steps were if one of those other candidates locked him out of decisive victories in his most important states.

Optimism is good, but I guess that plays into why he seems like he doesn't have a legislative strategy, or seemingly care about down-ballot wins. It will all work out or something.
 

Deleted member 2145

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
29,223
Hi, You seem to be repeating the false claim that Bernie supporters are more toxic than other candidates and by a good margin. May I take a moment to point you through to this informal little tweet thread on the subject;



I do encourage you to click through to the OP's newer tweets on the subject on his timeline as well for further updates but the jist is that Bernie does not have more negative supporters than any candidate and that the view that he does is driven by a combination by confirmation bias. I suggest you consider what you're basing your arguments on in future before you slander people using false narratives


glad there's actually data on this now
 

Deleted member 5666

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,753
Because I don't want a man who has dementia becoming president. Duh
Your choices are Biden and Trump. That is it.

What does pushing conspiracies (that no doctor has ever backed up) about Biden's health do for you in this situation? What is the goal in pushing this now that we are moving into the Biden vs. Trump GE match up soon?
 

Deleted member 176

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
37,160
Trump's rating is dropping due to his catastrophic mishandling of the outbreak, and the damage its doing to the economy.
Never mind that "vote just to stop Trump" is an incomplete claim because it totally ignores that there was a significant "Vote just to stop Clinton" vote going on at the same time. You won't get that with Biden.
I could honestly see Trump running to the (fake) left of Biden on the issue of the outbreak. Talk about how Joe is responsible for the bill that blocks people from getting a vaccine and other stuff that is disingenuous coming from Trump but still true. There will also 100% be a bombshell drop much worse than the Comey Letter between Hunter Biden and Trump's corrupt justice department.
 
Oct 25, 2017
9,053
He has a stutter. He's always had a stutter. It has kind of gotten worse with age, but that's the physical aspect of aging, not the mental parts.

www.cnn.com

Joe Biden shares vulnerable story on how he overcame stuttering - CNN Video

During a town hall in New Hampshire, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden spoke with CNN's Anderson Cooper about how he was able to overcome his stuttering.

The young, and especially those in the Sanders/Left bubble, fall into watching really biased selections of Biden, just a few clips or a sentence fragment of a time. He's always had a stutter. He's always had a gaffe machine, partly fueled by the stutter and attempts to awkwardly finish sentences.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
I could honestly see Trump running to the (fake) left of Biden on the issue of the outbreak. Talk about how Joe is responsible for the bill that blocks people from getting a vaccine and other stuff that is disingenuous coming from Trump but still true. There will also 100% be a bombshell drop much worse than the Comey Letter between Hunter Biden and Trump's corrupt justice department.
Right.
And here we have nonstop footage of Trump going "it's just the common flu! There's only 15 cases and it will soon be zero! Aren't I doing such a great job. It's basically contained and over now! Go to work with it, it's fine!" while thousands of cases and likely hundreds of deaths pile up as his disastrous response and ill-prepared CDC continue.

Why do people give such extreme credence to these tangential, flimsy lies from Trump? It's always just like "Oh people will believe him". Yeah, his base, who will always vote for him.
It's like you're more interested in writing fanfiction for Trump victories.
 

Deleted member 82

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,626
Has anybody posted this?



tl;dr: Oh no, looks like the Bernie Bro narrative is just garbage and we're all being played, who would have thought?

Longer answer:

Basically, what this shows is:
- 2-3% of supporters of a given candidate - any candidate - on Twitter post negative tweet. This isn't unique to Sanders supporters; even among Trump supporters, the proportions stay the same;
- Because there are way more Bernie supporters on Twitter than any other candidate, and because Warren is second, there is a (false) impression that Bernie supporters are meaner, especially towards Warren's campaign.

My safe speculation as to the disparity in raw numbers is that Bernie has been the sole frontrunner for the longest time AND attracts way more younger voters than the others, so, statistically, there are more of them online, and they're more active on social media. Regardless, this severely undermines the notion that online toxicity is a unique phenomenon of Sanders's base. Everyone has the same number of 'mean' supporters, so the sole conclusion is: Twitter is garbage, and the Bernie Bro narrative is stupid. When you can't shoot the messenger or their message, shoot his supporters, I guess.

Point is: people who buy into that narrative are either being played by those who would benefit from a weakened progressive platform, or are themselves disingenuous actors. And there is no point in asking a candidate to disavow, let alone take responsibility for and control how random supporters behave on Twitter. It's gonna happen whoever you are, whatever you do. Now, can we talk about policy?

Couple notes:
1) The grad student who made this is improving his model, so expect to see a more refined analysis later down the road.
2) He's being interviewed about this, so we should see an article on the subject soon enough; I'll try and post it whenever it comes out if I don't forget

[EDIT] Here's the thread with the table:

 
Last edited:

TwoDelay

Member
Apr 6, 2018
1,326
I'd argue that should be motivation enough. And judging by last Tuesday that message is driving turnout.
Again, I think he'd win - I'd put money on it. But a lot will change by nov. I think out of most of the candidates he was one of the weakest. The hunter Biden situation looks like obvious corruption to your average voter, he's going to be attacked and destroyed in a debate for his being "senile". I'm just worried
 

Deleted member 176

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
37,160
Right.
And here we have nonstop footage of Trump going "it's just the common flu! There's only 15 cases and it will soon be zero! Aren't I doing such a great job. It's basically contained and over now! Go to work with it, it's fine!" while thousands of cases and likely hundreds of deaths pile up as his disastrous response and ill-prepared CDC continue.

Why do people give such extreme credence to these tangential, flimsy lies from Trump? It's always just like "Oh people will believe him". Yeah, his base, who will always vote for him.
I think a lot of people believe the stuff that Trump is saying about the virus right now too, even as people die. Not just his base.
 

TwoDelay

Member
Apr 6, 2018
1,326
Has anybody posted this?



tl;dr: Oh no, looks like the Bernie Bro narrative is just garbage and we're all being played, who would have thought?

Longer answer:

Basically, what this shows is:
- 2-3% of supporters of a given candidate - any candidate - on Twitter post negative tweet. This isn't unique to Sanders supporters; even among Trump supporters, the proportions stay the same;
- Because there are way more Bernie supporters on Twitter than any other candidate, and because Warren is second, there is a (false) impression that Bernie supporters are meaner, especially towards Warren's campaign.

My safe speculation as to the disparity in raw numbers is that Bernie has been the sole frontrunner for the longest time AND attracts way more younger voters than the others, so, statistically, there are more of them online, and they're more active on social media. Regardless, this severely undermines the notion that online toxicity is a unique phenomenon of Sanders's base. Everyone has the same number of 'mean' supporters, so the sole conclusion is: Twitter is garbage, and the Bernie Bro narrative is stupid. When you can't shoot the messenger or their message, shoot his supporters, I guess.

Point is: people who buy into that narrative are either being played by those who would benefit from a weakened progressive platform, or are themselves disingenuous actors. And there is no point in asking a candidate to disavow, let alone take responsibility for and control how random supporters behave on Twitter. It's gonna happen whoever you are, whatever you do. Now, can we talk about policy?

Couple notes:
1) The grad student who made this is improving his model, so expect to see a more refined analysis later down the road.
2) He's being interviewed about this, so we should see an article on the subject soon enough; I'll try and post it whenever it comes out if I don't forget

The data shows there are a lot more people who just follow Sanders than any other candidate's single followers. That's probably why the Bernie Bro narrative sticks, there are more of them
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,129
Concern trolling about Biden's health should stop. Period.

It is alt-right bullshit no different than concern trolling about Obama being a muslim or concern trolling that Hillary was secretly dying and in poor health in 2016.

Biden has won the nomination. We all know he has won and it's a done deal that he is the party's nominee effectively. So maybe....we stop doing the GOP's work for them?

Uhh... What?

Well, for one- One the above is completely fictitious while being concerned about Biden's mental acuity actually has merit.

He still has my support as the nominee, and even in his current state he's orders of magnitude more salient, intelligent, and thoughtful than Trump. But to pretend that he hasn't lost a step is just straight up disingenuous.
 

Chindogg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,246
East Lansing, MI
Has anybody posted this?



tl;dr: Oh no, looks like the Bernie Bro narrative is just garbage and we're all being played, who would have thought?

Longer answer:

Basically, what this shows is:
- 2-3% of supporters of a given candidate - any candidate - on Twitter post negative tweet. This isn't unique to Sanders supporters; even among Trump supporters, the proportions stay the same;
- Because there are way more Bernie supporters on Twitter than any other candidate, and because Warren is second, there is a (false) impression that Bernie supporters are meaner, especially towards Warren's campaign.

My safe speculation as to the disparity in raw numbers is that Bernie has been the sole frontrunner for the longest time AND attracts way more younger voters than the others, so, statistically, there are more of them online, and they're more active on social media. Regardless, this severely undermines the notion that online toxicity is a unique phenomenon of Sanders's base. Everyone has the same number of 'mean' supporters, so the sole conclusion is: Twitter is garbage, and the Bernie Bro narrative is stupid. When you can't shoot the messenger or their message, shoot his supporters, I guess.

Point is: people who buy into that narrative are either being played by those who would benefit from a weakened progressive platform, or are themselves disingenuous actors. And there is no point in asking a candidate to disavow, let alone take responsibility for and control how random supporters behave on Twitter. It's gonna happen whoever you are, whatever you do. Now, can we talk about policy?

Couple notes:
1) The grad student who made this is improving his model, so expect to see a more refined analysis later down the road.
2) He's being interviewed about this, so we should see an article on the subject soon enough; I'll try and post it whenever it comes out if I don't forget


The Bernie Bro narrative was always a smear tactic to deflect criticizing Clinton for her record. She used it before with the Obama Boys narrative. Only this time it stuck because Bernie's not a moderate and he looks white so it's easy to accuse him of sexism and erase his Jewish ethnicity.
 

Deleted member 82

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,626
The data shows there are a lot more people who just follow Sanders than any other candidate's single followers. That's probably why the Bernie Bro narrative sticks, there are more of them

Yup. The grad student is trying to include people who follow more than one candidate for his next iteration, but it's more complicated apparently, so we might not have that for a while.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
there is a new Missouri poll with Biden up 53% to 31%. Not sure how reputable the pollster is - Remington research?

Link
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,973
A bias in what is considered "negative sentiment" could skew those results one way (or another). What is considered not harmful to some, can be harmful to others. Analyzed data in no way diminishes the arguments candidates make about actual people hurt, not does it get other candidates off the hook for not talking about it.
 

Chindogg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,246
East Lansing, MI
Uhh... What?

Well, for one- One the above is completely fictitious while being concerned about Biden's mental acuity actually has merit.

He still has my support as the nominee, and even in his current state he's orders of magnitude more salient, intelligent, and thoughtful than Trump. But to pretend that he hasn't lost a step is just straight up disingenuous.

Nah questioning Biden's mental stability based on his actions lately means you're being ableist and spreading misinformation. It's not as if he's going to get completely hammered by Republicans about it or anything.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
Nah questioning Biden's mental stability based on his actions lately means you're being ableist and spreading misinformation. It's not as if he's going to get completely hammered by Republicans about it or anything.
You were shown a video from two weeks ago and ignored it. Is two weeks ago not lately?
 

Chindogg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,246
East Lansing, MI
I mean, I'd be perfectly happy for anyone versed in neuroscience, mental health or care of the infirm or those with dementia to post about Biden's mental health.

Beyond that, it's literally just guesswork and anecdotal evidence that can be easily refuted by another user. And that is concern trolling, imo.

Yet we have armchair cardiologists in this thread claiming that Sanders' health is totally fucked despite having documentation that he's fine.

You can't have it both ways.

You were shown a video from two weeks ago and ignored it. Is two weeks ago not lately?

Cool he had his shit together for a day. Glad to see he's capable of that. Now let's see if he can keep going.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
Yet we have armchair cardiologists in this thread claiming that Sanders' health is totally fucked despite having documentation that he's fine.

You can't have it both ways.



Cool he had his shit together for a day. Glad to see he's capable of that. Now let's see if he can keep going.
This is just a brick wall here.
 

Pixieking

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,986
Yet we have armchair cardiologists in this thread claiming that Sanders' health is totally fucked despite having documentation that he's fine.

You can't have it both ways.

I mean, 1) damn, you got my post before I edited it. :p

But, 2) I'm not trying to have it both ways. Both are equally bad, and should not be condoned or posted.

Edit: I even said so a few pages back:

Yeah, that's a fair way of putting It. In much the same way that I would be concerned about Bernie's heart attack, but wouldn't armchair diagnose based on how he appeared at a debate.
 

Ithil

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,436
Look we can go tit for tat and post videos of where he's fine and where he's weird all day. In the end this could all be solved if he shows some evidence that he's fine. You think this accusation is annoying now, wait til the general election starts.
Don't worry, I am very prepared for you to continue bandying it in the general.
 

Vector

Member
Feb 28, 2018
6,686
Saying Biden is suffering from a cognitive decline is not being an armchair neurologist when that shit's clear as day. He's not as sharp and quick witted as he used to be. It's not a stutter issue - he makes weird pauses mid-sentence, he sometimes says nonsensical things and he seems to have a serious problem focusing on minutiae. You don't need a degree in neuroscience to point these things out.

Similarly, Trump says absolute nonsense all the time, too, yet I don't see people downplaying his problems.
 
Oct 25, 2017
17,537


Bernie lost by like a point in 2016 in Missouri.

I think its clear he was just the "Not Hillary" candidate and figured he'd carry that group in 2020
 

TheLucasLite

Member
Aug 27, 2018
1,446
The campaign trail can be tiring. There's a good chance that off of it, Biden would be fine. I'm only 30, and when I'm tired sometimes I feel like I can barely fucking talk straight.
 

Chindogg

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
7,246
East Lansing, MI
The campaign trail can be tiring. There's a good chance that off of it, Biden would be fine. I'm only 30, and when I'm tired sometimes I feel like I can barely fucking talk straight.

If he's worn out from the campaign then he shouldn't be president. Look at what 8 years of that did to Obama. The man aged faster than drinking the wrong cup thinking it was the holy grail.
 
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