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Oct 27, 2017
936
What's going on in this thread? Seems like people really think Bernie doesn't have a chance anymore even though he's been doing really good up to SC, which Biden was projected to win by default. Bernie has as much chance, if not better chances than Biden. Just because Buttegeig might endorse Biden doesn't change much, IMO.
Doomsaying (or Bloomsaying) is this thread's speciality.

Two weeks ago everyone was acting like Bloomberg had won the nomination. Now I guess we're supposed to be acting like Biden has already won. Maybe two weeks from now it'll somehow be Klobuchar, who knows!
 

Ashodin

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,595
Durham, NC
What's going on in this thread? Seems like people really think Bernie doesn't have a chance anymore even though he's been doing really good up to SC, which Biden was projected to win by default. Bernie has as much chance, if not better chances than Biden. Just because Buttegeig might endorse Biden doesn't change much, IMO.
It's just becoming clear that it's going to get REALLY messy until the convention.
 

Rodderick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,667
What's going on in this thread? Seems like people really think Bernie doesn't have a chance anymore even though he's been doing really good up to SC, which Biden was projected to win by default. Bernie has as much chance, if not better chances than Biden. Just because Buttegeig might endorse Biden doesn't change much, IMO.

It's a lot of people's first primary and some are living in a very Bernie friendly bubble, which makes even the slightest adversity look catastrophic. But here on Era I'm not really seeing that much doom and gloom.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
they will when the underpaid, overworked hospital staff starts going on strike and the federal government does nothing to break it.

This isn't going to happen. We're not France, for good or ill.

Even if it does, a strong majority of hospital staff will keep on working because they're not unionized and have no way to ya' know, pay their bills while striking. Why is a moderate 33 year old non-unionized nurse in Montana going to strike, just because a guy she might or might not have voted for says too?

That's not even getting into the fact that most red states would immediately pass laws making nurses and other hospital staff under the same rules as police and teachers, and making it basically impossible for them to strike legally, without risking jail time, and in those states, most people would support the Republican's.
 
Oct 28, 2017
4,970
Whoever the President is, they will need to make compromises to get things done.

It's about where the compromises start from. Biden is pretty damn conservative based on his voting record.

Biden doesn't solve the symptom of America's ills and won't solve them because he doesn't really believe they exist.We're pretty lucky that Trump has little to no interest in actual policy, he just wants to punish those who went against him.

What it does open him up to is a populist Republican who cares far more about policy.
 

Sei

Member
Oct 28, 2017
5,707
LA
What's going on in this thread? Seems like people really think Bernie doesn't have a chance anymore even though he's been doing really good up to SC, which Biden was projected to win by default. Bernie has as much chance, if not better chances than Biden. Just because Buttegeig might endorse Biden doesn't change much, IMO.

Pretty much. Endorsements don't really have that much of an impact, it really depends on the circumstances of the endorsement.

The second choice of voters in most polls leans towards Sanders, even if Pete endorses Biden, I doubt those voters will overwhelmingly change their minds on who they like.
 

Deleted member 8561

user requested account closure
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Oct 26, 2017
11,284
i can't wait to be compromised to a permanent end when biden pushes to expand ICE as a compromise.

nope. labor will save itself. there's no savior from on high. bernie's role is to stay in the sidelines when it starts happening.

If you think people are going to strike for legislature, you're going to be horribly disappointed.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
It's about where the compromises start from. Biden is pretty damn conservative based on his voting record.

Biden doesn't solve the symptom of America's ills and won't solve them because he doesn't really believe they exist.We're pretty lucky that Trump has little to no interest in actual policy, he just wants to punish those who went against him.
Is it? Because it doesn't really matter where you start from if Republicans will just say no. The negotiation skill people seem to think the Democrats lack isn't really the issue. The issue is Republicans have a lot more they can hold hostage than Democrats do. Whatever obstruction the GOP does can be argued as them fulfilling their platform by limiting government. Democrats are the ones who want a more active state.
 

Starviper

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,431
Minneapolis
Pretty much. Endorsements don't really have that much of an impact, it really depends on the circumstances of the endorsement.

The second choice of voters in most polls leans towards Sanders, even if Pete endorses Biden, I doubt those voters will overwhelmingly change their minds on who they like.

That's kind of what I was thinking..I have a hard time thinking those that supported Buttegeig would default to Biden even with an endorsement. Honestly it oftentimes seems like Bernie gets a boost from things seemingly going against him. If Buttegeig endorses Biden before Tuesday I think his supporters might actually see it as a poor backup option. Biden doesn't have a whole lot going for him, IMO, beyond being the default for people stuck in the middle.
 
Oct 27, 2017
1,443
North Carolina
I'd vote for Biden. Whatever. My problem is, who is left to continue Bernie's movement next time? There a a million politicians like Biden, Pete, et al. There are not many like Bernie. I'm afraid this is our last chance for a progressive shift for a long time and that makes me sad.
 

Terra

Member
May 15, 2019
297
If Biden is the guy I'm voting for him, but my spirit would be shattered. It means that real change and a leftist movement just isn't possible in America.

Yeah this is where I am. Bernie isn't the end all be all, not even close. But if America can't even manage this, then actual progress seems impossible. Just norms and status quo's until the inevitable climate apocalypse. Oh well, not that I should have hoped for anything in the first place.
 

Exellus

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
2,348
I'd vote for Biden. Whatever. My problem is, who is left to continue Bernie's movement next time? There a a million politicians like Biden, Pete, et al. There are not many like Bernie. I'm afraid this is our last chance for a progressive shift for a long time and that makes me sad.

AOC. When she's old enough to run.
 

AbsoluteZero0K

Alt Account
Banned
Dec 6, 2019
1,570
If they win the nomination through brokering at the convention despite not getting a convincing lead, that's a weak nominee.

I don't understand what this means, so I'll just nod and say "ok."


As the saying goes, "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line." And it's not unique to the Dems - leftist parties and coalitions the world over are far more factional and less willing to work with one another than their right-wing counterparts are with each other.

The cost of intersectionality is...severe.
 

JesseEwiak

Banned
Oct 31, 2017
3,781
I'd vote for Biden. Whatever. My problem is, who is left to continue Bernie's movement next time? There a a million politicians like Biden, Pete, et al. There are not many like Bernie. I'm afraid this is our last chance for a progressive shift for a long time and that makes me sad.

Whoever is around in 2032, after Joe Biden steps down in 2023, and Kamala Harris gets 2 1/2 terms.
 

medinaria

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,534
Umm, ok. That seems unlikely.

so I mean, I think this example is probably somewhat unlikely.

at the same time, however, one of the more sordid stories of the obama administration is how the democrats in congress repeatedly got put into shitty situations because mitch mcconnell just went straight to biden with every "deal" and biden "negotiated" shit that democrats were furious with

this is, I think, the bigger point to be made here. there are certain people in the party for whom compromise and bipartisanship is not a means, but an ends unto itself. these people have shown, repeatedly, that they're willing to make what are - frankly - horrendous deals in which democrats get absolutely cleaned out for almost nothing, so long as they can say they have reached a "bipartisan agreement". because the compromise is what matters.

and I think biden is probably one of the worst offenders I know of that type. and that honestly scares the shit out of me. I get that everyone will have to compromise, and I say this as a sanders supporter. however, there's all sorts of different directions those compromises can go in, and there is literally nothing in joe biden's history that makes me think those compromises won't be shit. so expanding ice? probably not. but closing the child jails and ending family separation in exchange for like aggressively expanding deportations and setting a hard, low quota on immigration? I wouldn't count it out.

(to give an example of this, I'll steal a quote from elsewhere)

Democratic insiders like Podesta maintained that to "get anything done in a partisan divide, and a divided Senate," Biden would be a "tremendous asset because he knows the players, the institution, and he has credibility." In reality, he was the ideal foil for a ruthless negotiator like McConnell, who quickly realized that Biden was the administration's soft underbelly. In December 2010, a government shutdown loomed, while both the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy and unemployment insurance looked set to expire. With McConnell happy to hold hostage the nearly fifteen million jobless Americans about to lose their government lifeline, Biden personally called him to make a deal.

That deal ended up so lopsided that it outraged Democrats across the political spectrum. In exchange for keeping unemployment insurance alive for another thirteen months, extending an education tax credit for two more years, and an eleventh-hour stimulus of payroll tax cuts, Biden gave McConnell not just two more years of high-income tax cuts, but a lower estate tax with a higher exemption, new tax write-offs for businesses, and a maximum 15 percent capital gains tax rate locked in for two years. At one point, Biden's team had even considered dropping the poorest Americans from the Obama stimulus payments of $400 a year, reversing course at the objections of a Treasury economist who called the idea "immoral."
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,194
It's clear the party wants to stop Sanders, but I'm not really convinced the average Biden/Bloomberg/Pete voter is determined to stop Sanders or that they're going to try to vote strategically to stop him.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
The problem I think a lot of folks have with someone like Biden is that his FIRST line of attack seems to be compromise with the republicans, ie the tax deal at the end of 2012
It doesn't really matter what's "first," as the compromise will always happen. Being stubborn at the outset just to plan to compromise later isn't a particularly good trick, and tends to just serve as a ugly looking roadblock.
 

Shroki

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,910
I'd vote for Biden. Whatever. My problem is, who is left to continue Bernie's movement next time? There a a million politicians like Biden, Pete, et al. There are not many like Bernie. I'm afraid this is our last chance for a progressive shift for a long time and that makes me sad.

There's this one young lady in the Bronx who has managed to establish brand power on par with Bernie Sanders before her 30th birthday.

Not saying, just saying.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
so I mean, I think this example is probably somewhat unlikely.

at the same time, however, one of the more sordid stories of the obama administration is how the democrats in congress repeatedly got put into shitty situations because mitch mcconnell just went straight to biden with every "deal" and biden "negotiated" shit that democrats were furious with

this is, I think, the bigger point to be made here. there are certain people in the party for whom compromise and bipartisanship is not a means, but an ends unto itself. these people have shown, repeatedly, that they're willing to make what are - frankly - horrendous deals in which democrats get absolutely cleaned out for almost nothing, so long as they can say they have reached a "bipartisan agreement". because the compromise is what matters.

and I think biden is probably one of the worst offenders I know of that type. and that honestly scares the shit out of me. I get that everyone will have to compromise, and I say this as a sanders supporter. however, there's all sorts of different directions those compromises can go in, and there is literally nothing in joe biden's history that makes me think those compromises won't be shit. so expanding ice? probably not. but closing the child jails and ending family separation in exchange for like aggressively expanding deportations and setting a hard, low quota on immigration? I wouldn't count it out.

(to give an example of this, I'll steal a quote from elsewhere)
There is really nothing in Bernie's political history, or Warren's, or Pete's that show any of them will be able to make "better" deals with the GOP.
 

Psychonaut

Member
Jan 11, 2018
3,207
Can we reflect for a minute on how absolutely whack it is that some twerp mayor from nowheresville was able to run a moderately successful presidential campaign for almost a year? Any other year and he would have been laughed out of town immediately.
 

Deleted member 8561

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,284
There are a lot of things funny in this primary.

I think the most amazing thing is the irony that Bloom is probably the single reason why Sanders has the best shot at the nomination as Bloom keeps sucking polling and eventually votes from Biden in states coming up.

Bloom being in the race could be not only the best thing for Sanders, but his eventual saving grace.
 

Chindogg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,226
East Lansing, MI
AOC 2024. Third time is the charm!

There'll be a new moderate darling that the DNC will push forth in order to keep their campaign money moving.

Can we reflect for a minute on how absolutely whack it is that some twerp mayor from nowheresville was able to run a moderately successful presidential campaign for almost a year? Any other year and he would have been laughed out of town immediately.

What's worse is that the guy he dropped for hasn't really run a campaign at all and almost every public appearance he's made he's embarrassed himself in one way or another.
 

Malleymal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,283
If people would rather watch trump win instead of voting for whoever the candidate ends up being, they weren't worth the effort to begin with.
 

Fat4all

Woke up, got a money tag, swears a lot
Member
Oct 25, 2017
92,555
here
pete is officially out, audience is chanting "2024"

good luck with that
 

fierygunrob

One Winged Slayer
Member
Jan 16, 2018
299
It doesn't really matter what's "first," as the compromise will always happen. Being stubborn at the outset just to plan to compromise later isn't a particularly good trick, and tends to just serve as a ugly looking roadblock.
By all accounts the republicans were going to capitulate to the democrats in this instance, but Biden flipping the table on that is... a good thing?

"By making all of the tax cuts permanent but only avoiding the sequester for two months, the president traded away most of his leverage in return for only half of the revenue he had been seeking — and no clear way to force Republicans to the table for more."

Obama's Lost Leverage - Roll Call

It wasn’t supposed to be like this for the White House and a re-elected president with political capital to spend. But President Barack Obama is in a position of supplication to Hill Republicans, talking loudly and often about the harm of automatic budget cuts but lacking the leverage to get the...

C'mon, man
 

Ashodin

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,595
Durham, NC
I'm chanting 2024 just for a better lineup. Bernie's not going to be in it this time I gather, and we'll need a new face of democratic socialism.
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,833
Texas
There is really nothing in Bernie's political history, or Warren's, or Pete's that show any of them will be able to make "better" deals with the GOP.
Is there anything in the modern times of current politics (say since 2012 or so - especially 2016) that any Dem could make better deals with the GOP at this point? There will never be a return to "normalcy" with the GOP at this point.
 

yogurt

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,794
Black people have the least options politically in America. Joe got the Obama shine, is a Democrat, and is popular. As others have pointed out, traditionally Black people roll with who they think can win as opposed to who they agree with more. Bernie has only been on the national scene for five years. Joe has been known for decades and got a successful 8 season long reboot due to Obama picking him as VP. It's the same thing with Hillary back in '16. The Clintons have been known.

American Black people can't afford to have purity tests when it comes to White politicians. We will accept certain levels of racism because Republicans are guaranteed to be worse. Hell, we make these concessions everyday of our lives when dealing with other people.

Look what happened in VA's last Governor's race. LOL the (D) candidate was a racist with Blackface photos and didn't lose any Black support. White Liberals were more outraged by the pics than Black VA voters. Northram's racism was forgivable because abandoning him would bring a bigger threat, a Republican governor, into power.
I hear you and appreciate your analysis. Also, I live in Virginia, so I agree with your read on the whole Northam thing. What a mess.

This still doesn't answer my question, though. If Biden is just as right wing as Trump and criminalizes Blacks more than he does, as you said, then why does the AA community overwhelmingly want Trump kicked out in favor of Biden?
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
By all accounts the republicans were going to capitulate to the democrats in this instance, but Biden flipping the table on that is... a good thing?

"By making all of the tax cuts permanent but only avoiding the sequester for two months, the president traded away most of his leverage in return for only half of the revenue he had been seeking — and no clear way to force Republicans to the table for more."

Obama's Lost Leverage - Roll Call

It wasn’t supposed to be like this for the White House and a re-elected president with political capital to spend. But President Barack Obama is in a position of supplication to Hill Republicans, talking loudly and often about the harm of automatic budget cuts but lacking the leverage to get the...

C'mon, man
"By all accounts"? Which accounts? I missed them if they were in that article.
 

Deleted member 8561

user requested account closure
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
11,284
Anyone think Pete might have been coerced to drop out to help Biden?

People have literally been telling everyone that Pete was non-viable after NH

So no, most people who have been paying attention probably don't think Pete was bribed or coerced to drop out.

This is straight up conspiracy level shit.
 

medinaria

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,534
There is really nothing in Bernie's political history, or Warren's, or Pete's that show any of them will be able to make "better" deals with the GOP.

so we should pick someone that we know is unable, because other people might be unable too? that's nonsensical.

in the case of warren, for example, it's very likely that she could use her extensive knowledge of policy to put in numerous provisions that seem like innocent asks but are actually deeply consequential. you can make the other side feel like they're getting a better deal than they are, if you're good about it.

with sanders, we do actually have examples with him (the mccain-sanders veteran's bill) that indicate he knows how to cut deals. it's generally pretty widely regarded as a compromise that was like... good. both teams played hard, and both sides ultimately got something they wanted.

are either of these things going to happen? fuck if I know, I can't see the future. but there's at least an argument to be made that they might. with biden, we know he's an absolutely terrible negotiator who will cave and offer just about everything. we have reams of evidence. hell, we have harry reid literally asking the white house to not let joe biden talk to mitch mcconnell anymore, because he's fucking them:

In late 2012, with Obama reelected and the Bush tax cuts expiring, the Democrats held the leverage. Reid was now ready to go over the cliff, let all the tax cuts expire, and bargain with Republicans over allowing them to remain in place just for the middle class and poor. McConnell, knowing the GOP would get the blame, indicated he was ready to accept the deal. But he had one last trump card: the vice president, who he phoned directly on Air Force Two to inform him that Reid was being unreasonable. Yet again, Biden gave McConnell everything he wanted; yet again, Democrats reacted in fury. Biden called members of Congress individually, offering a trademark long-winded monologue imploring them to trust him, a pitch he himself summarized as "This is Joe Biden and I'm your buddy."

With Obama backing the deal, the federal government lost trillions of dollars in revenue from the reinstituted Bush tax cuts. It would get around $600 billion in all, $200 billion less than the Republican House speaker had initially promised, and ultimately even less once Republicans passed a tax cut under Trump in 2017. Biden hadn't even extracted the authority to raise the debt ceiling from McConnell, leaving the door open for more Republican blackmail. Meanwhile, the super-rich pocketed the windfall, further widening wealth inequality and, more alarmingly, growing their power to push a political system now totally overrun by money further right. Even centrist Democrats shook their heads at the White House's inability to win while holding all the cards, openly grumbling about its failure. Reid told the White House not to let Biden negotiate with McConnell anymore.

"other people might be shit too" doesn't somehow make the argument for actively choosing shit
 
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