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SolarPowered

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Oct 28, 2017
2,211
I never said that, I said polling with black voters isn't good, and that Bernie's support in that group isn't as good as polls are showing. As evidenced by him getting blown out yesterday.
IIRC what happened is mostly a South Carolina polling phenomenon. In the all the years of following politics and polling I've never heard that black people are not polled well at a national level or in different states/regions of the US. Pollsters simply underestimate older South Carolinian black voters.
 

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
Anecdotal information:

My family (20+ people, all Black) have a sharp age divide when it comes to Bernie vs Biden. The line sits at approximately the mid thirties. Everyone older than that, Biden. Anyone younger, Bernie.

I'm 24, Bernie supporter, and would gladly vote for Biden in the general, but this is 100% consistent for all my family in VA. Crazy.
 

IMCaprica

Member
Aug 1, 2019
9,414
Man that result has gotten a lot of folks shook. Bernie supporters trying to browbeat Warren and her supporters into throwing in the towel right this second is such a weird look. I don't see any Biden supporters trying to push Bloomberg or other moderates into giving up like this.
So shook by South Carolina that Sanders supporters demand the immediate support of a candidate who just went 3-4-4-5 and could lose her own state to Sanders? I don't think that's what's happening here. I think people just don't want to see Elizabeth Warren self-destruct in a way that could do the one thing Trump wants: fracture the Democratic Party going into the GE. All for some imaginary convention power.
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
Warren is not going to support Sanders.

Warren is playing the contested convention and hopes that the establishment picks her as nominee

She's a joke
 

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
Has anyone considered that Warren is staying in to get concessions from the eventual nominee?

Delegates = convention bargaining power IIRC.
 

darkside

Member
Oct 26, 2017
11,261
So shook by South Carolina that Sanders supporters demand the immediate support of a candidate who just went 3-4-4-5 and could lose her own state to Sanders? I don't think that's what's happening here. I think people just don't want to see Elizabeth Warren self-destruct in a way that could do the one thing Trump wants: fracture the Democratic Party going into the GE. All for some imaginary convention power.

The only fracturing are people calling her a joke because she won't concede and endorse Bernie. This just simply isn't a thing with other candidates in the race. She doesn't owe Bernie shit
Has anyone considered that Warren is staying in to get concessions from the eventual nominee?

Delegates = convention bargaining power IIRC.

Yes thats how it traditionally works.
 

Rodderick

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,667
I actually hadn't seen that shift in the crosstabs, thank you for pointing that out. I stand corrected.

Regardless, my question still stands - he's more racist than Trump but has great support & favorables in the African American community? How do you square that circle?

I wonder if he could respond without using the racist dogwhistles of "low information voters" and "voting against their own interests".
 

Snowy

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
1,399
Maybe she thinks he is a bad general election candidate. Which isn't a crazy take.

It's not crazy, even if I think it wrong, but considering she can't even get the Dem primary electorate on her side, thinking she would somehow be a better general election candidate in the scenario of a bitter contested convention that is sure to destroy the party for a generation seems delusional to me!
 
Oct 25, 2017
21,434
Sweden
i don't think warren staying in hurts bernie much more than it would hurt other candidates

i do think her losing her home state would be pretty bad for her future political career though. no one would pick someone who can't even deliver their home state as a running mate, for example
 

kodax_shc

Member
Oct 27, 2017
6,429
Southern California
Just got this email from Bernie:

Today, I am very proud to share with you some extraordinary news: during the month of February alone, our campaign raised more than $46.5 million from more than 2.2 million individual donations — for an average donation of about $21.

I know we sent a number of fundraising emails, so I thought it important to share a few more details about the PEOPLE who are powering our grassroots movement:

  • More than 350,000 people made their first contribution to our campaign in the month of February.
  • Once again, the most common occupation of a donor to our campaign is teachers and the most common employers were Amazon, Starbucks, Walmart, USPS, and Target workers in that order.
  • More than 56% of our donors in February were under the age of 40.
  • More than 99% of our donations were for $100 or less.
  • And we received more than 1.4 million donations from people who vote on Super Tuesday.
 

RDreamer

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,102
Has anyone considered that Warren is staying in to get concessions from the eventual nominee?

Delegates = convention bargaining power IIRC.
That's a part of it, yeah. It's what Bernie did in 2016 despite being mathematically out for a while. You just probably can't run for President and say out loud "actually I'm not running for President I'm running to push a progressive agenda on the nominee or platform" and get votes. So like Bernie did she's threading that needle.


Personally, I'm still fine with Warren staying in through Super Tuesday. She raised the second most money of any candidate in February and for all intents and purposes Biden's actual campaign was failing (he raised much less money and that's even counting a bit windfall on the night of South Carolina). S.C. was always going to be a bad state for her so I can see why she'd build up for ST and see how things fell before making a decision. Her colossal debate performance hit at the most inopportune time unfortunately.

Super Tuesday coming so quickly after South Carolina is why everyone's staying in. Everything's already set up and ready to go. Plus there's the added wrinkle that shows we still may end up with no one having a majority.
 

Deleted member 43

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Oct 24, 2017
9,271
i don't think warren staying in hurts bernie much more than it would hurt other candidates

i do think her losing her home state would be pretty bad for her future political career though. no one would pick someone who can't even deliver their home state as a running mate, for example
Considering her home state is Massachusetts, no Democrat would pick her for that reason anyway.
 

Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,269
I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me at this point that Warren has a massive fucking grudge against Sanders - literally all of the fighting between the two of them as candidates has been explicitly one-way. Warren was leading in the fall and then Bernie surged as she collapsed for a variety of reasons. If Bernie wasn't in the race, she would likely be going head-to-head with Biden and be the leading progressive candidate considering a huge portion of Bernie's supporters have her as their second choice, but since his support base is much more solid than hers, that is literally never going to happen at this point.

She isn't going to be the nominee, she isn't going to magically surge out of nowhere unless Bernie literally dies, and her continued desperation is just pathetic to watch. If the roles were reversed and Bernie was hanging on to his 9-12%, siphoning votes predominantly away from Warren as she was the one struggling to hold a lead in the overall primary race, there would be a flood of people, particularly here, calling on him to quit because he was only splitting the left-wing vote and they would be completely right to do so. This entire thing is ridiculous. All of the arguments I've heard here against Sanders now apply to Warren with near 100% applicability. She is the one being divisive, she is the one splitting the vote, she is the one desperately continuing on despite no path to the nomination, she is the one compromising her supposed ideals for power, etc. If she doesn't drop out after ST, assuming she doesn't randomly do incredibly well out of nowhere, her presence in the race serves only bad purposes.
 

Pilgrimzero

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,129
Anecdotal information:

My family (20+ people, all Black) have a sharp age divide when it comes to Bernie vs Biden. The line sits at approximately the mid thirties. Everyone older than that, Biden. Anyone younger, Bernie.

I'm 24, Bernie supporter, and would gladly vote for Biden in the general, but this is 100% consistent for all my family in VA. Crazy.

May I ask why they like Biden? What are his plans that appeal to them? Because it seems to me that Bernies plans are better all around
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
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Oct 24, 2017
9,271
I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me at this point that Warren has a massive fucking grudge against Sanders - literally all of the fighting between the two of them as candidates has been explicitly one-way. Warren was leading in the fall and then Bernie surged as she collapsed for a variety of reasons. If Bernie wasn't in the race, she would likely be going head-to-head with Biden and be the leading progressive candidate considering a huge portion of Bernie's supporters have her as their second choice, but since his support base is much more solid than hers, that is literally never going to happen at this point.

She isn't going to be the nominee, she isn't going to magically surge out of nowhere unless Bernie literally dies, and her continued desperation is just pathetic to watch. If the roles were reversed and Bernie was hanging on to his 9-12%, siphoning votes predominantly away from Warren as she was the one struggling to hold a lead in the overall primary race, there would be a flood of people, particularly here, calling on him to quit because he was only splitting the left-wing vote and they would be completely right to do so. This entire thing is ridiculous. All of the arguments I've heard here against Sanders now apply to Warren with near 100% applicability. She is the one being divisive, she is the one splitting the vote, she is the one desperately continuing on despite no path to the nomination, she is the one compromising her supposed ideals for power, etc. If she doesn't drop out after ST, assuming she doesn't randomly do incredibly well out of nowhere, her presence in the race serves only bad purposes.
Warren supporters not voting for Bernie isn't Warren's fault, it's Bernie's. He needs to earn their votes, they are not owed to him.
 

Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,269
Warren supporters not voting for Bernie isn't Warren's fault, it's Bernie's. He needs to earn their votes, they are not owed to him.

I mean, people don't really think this way or anything - a lot of people get attached to a certain candidate and stick with them regardless, even if they know it's completely pointless. I don't think many Klobuchar voters at this point are under any belief that she has an actual real shot of winning. Warren has a lot of fans who want to support her specifically and that's fine - I understand that. She has done amazing things and I respect her and her time in politics immensely.

My point is broader than that in any case. Her presence in this race at this stage is not a positive if you want a left-wing nominee and her dropping out would improve the chances of having a left-wing nominee, which I do. If the situations were exactly reversed I would also want Bernie to drop out instead. People need to be honest about what the situation is at this point.
 

V_Arnold

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,166
Hungary
It's a bad take and an even worse argument to use for herself considering she routinely has some of the worst Trump matchups of all major candidates.

Exactly. And the most heartcrushing thing in all this? Warren was a beast when she started the race. She has actually led for a few weeks. So sad to see this turn of events.
 

Lebron

Member
Oct 30, 2017
3,575
May I ask why they like Biden? What are his plans that appeal to them? Because it seems to me that Bernies plans are better all around
Obama's right hand. Same reason they were for Hillary. Bill and Bam association. There's a reason why Bernie got destroyed in the south last go round.

Also, older black folks, at least my family, are more moderate/conservative. Only reason they still vote democrat is GOP racist fuckery.
 

Deleted member 16657

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Oct 27, 2017
10,198
is there even a single doubt that we're getting a brokered convention into a biden nom?

search in your heart, you know this to be true.
 

LifeLine

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,779
Bernie's support from latinos and Beto's support from suburban white texas might just be enough to get Texas. Bernie + Beto, for 4 years followed by Beto + Cortez. Back to back dream teams.
 

SDBurton

Community Resettler
Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,384
Bernie is left wing both Biden and trump are right wing

I immediately regretted posting this cause it's fucking stupid

I already saw that you checked yourself on this but:

Seriously, some of ya'll need to get your shit together. Acting in this manner ain't doing you (or your candidate of choice) any favors.
 

schuelma

Member
Oct 24, 2017
5,901
New CBS California and Texas polls out- look not horrible for Biden ( up to 19% in Cali, close to Bernie in Texas). On phone so no link
 

T0M

Alt-Account
Banned
Aug 13, 2019
900
May I ask why they like Biden? What are his plans that appeal to them? Because it seems to me that Bernies plans are better all around

Sure! I believe it's a mixture of believing Biden has the best chance to defeat Trump, and wanting to go back to Obama era politics, where things were much more stable and there wasn't a scandal to worry about every waking moment. They all like Bernie, but their votes are more out of pragmatism than anything. In the words of my Dad, he doesn't think Bernie will win because of the "socialist" labeling Trump will use against him. I totally understand how they feel even if my beliefs are slightly different.

Personally, I do like Biden. I really do. But after watching Republican antics for the last 12 years, I don't think incrementalism will work anymore, and that it's not feasible to trust the Republican party to cooperate on any major change. That's why I want Bernie, hopefully on the idea that if he wins big enough, it'll shut Republicans out of the decision making progress until they're willing to abandon the ideals of Trumpism & the Southern Strategy. Because until that happens, it's either all or nothing in my eyes.
 

Deleted member 16657

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i think there's still a decent chance for the berninator to grab a majority of delegates

giphy.gif


I think its extremely unlikely since the other candidates have decided to stay in till the bitter end.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,483
Warren supporters not voting for Bernie isn't Warren's fault, it's Bernie's. He needs to earn their votes, they are not owed to him.
Do we apply this logic to the general? The next time I see someone relitigating 2016 and complaining about Bernie supporters who didn't vote for Clinton, can you just say that she should have earned their vote?
 

Sidebuster

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,405
California
I actually hadn't seen that shift in the crosstabs, thank you for pointing that out. I stand corrected.

Regardless, my question still stands - he's more racist than Trump but has great support & favorables in the African American community? How do you square that circle?
I just wanted to point out the new information. I'll leave your question to the black community to answer.
 

Haubergeon

Member
Jan 22, 2019
2,269

"Someone not voting for ___ is not the candidate's fault, that vote must be earned" is an argument people would almost certainly used if a centrist pick like Biden took the nomination, or worse, someone much worse like Bloomberg. The point this poster was making was that, in the event of posters here saying they refused to vote for those two options, you would be consistent in claiming that is 100% on the candidate for not earning their votes and not the other way around.
 
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