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i_am_ben

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,012
any particular reason why? Especially curious as to why Biden would be better than Obama considering dems had massive losses with him as president

The senate leans conservative due to demographics, and the Democrat majority in the house was gained by pushing into 'purple' seats.

My logic is that more 'purple' house and senate seats are likely to respond better to a more centrist Democratic Presidency.

As for Obama losing lots of seats? I believe Bernie would lose more.
 

Audioboxer

Banned
Nov 14, 2019
2,943
Some of the people in that video...woof. America, what are you doing? How have you brainwashed your citizens into thinking that socialized health care is bad??

Racism and classism. America probably has racism more at the forefront than some other countries, due to the demographics of America and prior slavery introducing a sizeable African-American population.

Can't have the "pesky black people" getting anything "free". Ironically missing the whole fucking point that it's healthcare for all, funded by state tax, not just "free healthcare if you are black paid for exclusively by the whites".

It's sad. Time and time again in history two main things, both linked, show how they lift up the living for all. Women having control over their reproductive rights, and healthcare for all.

Those two things help lift soo many people out of poverty, yet America has its history of religious bullshit fighting one, and insane racism and classism fighting the other.

What a great country 👏

Healthcare should be a human right in any wealthy country that dares say it is a "1st world country".
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
The senate leans conservative due to demographics, and the Democrat majority in the house was gained by pushing into 'purple' seats.

My logic is that more 'purple' house and senate seats are likely to respond better to a more centrist Democratic Presidency.

As for Obama losing lots of seats? I believe Bernie would lose more.

Centrist on what issue?
The move to the center is one of the biggest scams successfully pushed by wealthy donors, next to trickle down economics.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
The irony is that the platform Biden is running on is more progressive than what Obama won on in 2008.

No one's moving to the center, the only real issue is whether the party is moving left fast enough.

(FWIW I don't think it is, but I'm also a dyed-in-the-wool leftist)
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
Real talk, I'm getting very similar vibes in this thread that I did in 2016.

Not saying Sanders can't win, but maybe let's not put the cart before the horse. Biden's support hasn't budged in a year and neither has Sanders'.

Biden is starting to show some slippage.
I love all this "he will get crushed in the South!" talk. Literally nobody has suggested any of the democratic nominees stand a chance in the South in the general election. Why is it such an enormous concern with Bernie?
People are talking about the primaries. Biden. Pretty much is dominating in the South among primary voters.
 

Dream Machine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,085
As an outsider it seems that the Democrats (that dont vote Bernie) hate him way more than the Republicans lol you cant say his name without some people running to say anything to disqualify him and forget everything negative about all other Democratic candidates.

The media doesnt support him at all so it makes it easier for everyone to be against him, and in this sense it makes him look like Trump, which interestingly and weirdly gives him strength. Im very curious to see how the media will portray if we get a Bernie vs Trump, probably siding with T because of those tax cuts... funny thing is that even if he is elected I doubt he will be able to pass most of his proposals through congress.
It all comes down to the economics. The left is more dangerous to the establishment than the right.
Y'all don't understand Black voters. Older Black voters roll with perceived winners, having a Black agenda or not has nothing to do with it. Hillary had the Pulp Fiction suitcase with the Black vote shining in it back in 2007 by default. She was a known (D) and had the best chance of winning.

Once Obama started gaining momentum, the tide changed and Black folks rolled with him. Obama didn't lay out a Black agenda to persuade Black voters, he just started winning consistently.

Amen. I want us to shoot our shot and not settle.

That article is overthinking it and I had a feeling it was written by a non-Black person. Frankly, Black people especially the older ones are politically risk averse. The Republicans are blatantly anti-Black, we don't have the luxury to gamble with someone who looks like they won't win- I'm talking every presidential election, not just this one. Look at all the other races, somehow the Republicans are a viable choice for some of them... they aren't for us. I knew some older Black dudes that idealogically agreed with Bernie but voted Clinton because "she had the best chance of winning".

Biden is the safe choice, he is known and he is popular. All his racial gaffes and his racist past are irrelevant, the older gen isn't taking a gamble on someone else at this point in time. If Bernie or Warren start consistently whuppin his ass, Biden may lose Black voters like '08 Hillary did. This is why the current Bernie erasure and the tv bias for Hillary last time are very problematic. They've been downplaying how well Bernie's been doing at various points in this campaign season, that will make folks go elsewhere.

The article is correct that older Black people tend to be Conservative but that has nothing to do with their support for Joe. Most Black Conservatives still vote overwhelmingly Democrat.

Agree!
Great post. Thanks for laying it out for people.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Biden is starting to show some slippage.


RealClearPolitics 2020 Dem Presidential Primary
National average

December 30, 2018:
Biden 27.3
Sanders 18.0

December 30, 2019:
Biden 28.3
Sanders 18.9

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Biden's lead hasn't been meaningfully threatened at all this primary cycle, outside of a brief instant where Warren nudged ahead of him before losing support to Buttigieg. Biden and Sanders' numbers have barely budged in a year.

What Sanders has to hope for is that early victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada lead to national momentum, either enough to cut into Biden's lead with African-Americans (and thus in the Southern states) or make it irrelevant. He's the best positioned candidate to make it happen, I would just really prefer people not get it in their heads that Sanders has this in the bag and that if he loses it's only the DNC's fault or whatever.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
I think he needs a clean run of IA-NH-NV and then to hold Biden's margin in SC down to 20 points or less. Anything less and it's probably Biden's.

Agreed.

Don't see how he takes NV from Biden, unless he has such overwhelming victories in NH and IA that people start to believe he can really win... Which, I'm not even sure is possible at this point. Whichever candidate wins IA and NH is going to win it by a small margin.
 

Dream Machine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,085
I think the bernie campaign has put a lot of time and effort into nevada for the primary, so if he doesn't win it, it definitely isn't looking good for him. He needs the snowball momentum like Obama got in 2008
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Agreed.

Don't see how he takes NV from Biden, unless he has such overwhelming victories in NH and IA that people start to believe he can really win... Which, I'm not even sure is possible at this point. Whichever candidate wins IA and NH is going to win it by a small margin.
Right, and slim wins in IA/NH won't really help him with delegate math. It would be all about narrative setting and getting Warren's supporters to coalesce behind him, as well as any soft Biden supporters who - for one reason or another - just never seriously considered him as a candidate.
 

Maxim726x

Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
13,063
I think the bernie campaign has put a lot of time and effort into nevada for the primary, so if he doesn't win it, it definitely isn't looking good for him. He needs the snowball momentum like Obama got in 2008

Don't have any recent polling from NV, so it's possible that things have changed... Last polls were from the middle of November.

But with the information we have now, it looks like Biden will take it easily. As I've maintained for months- Until either Sanders or Warren drops out it's a longshot for the both of them. And at this point, as much as it pains me to say, it looks like Warren is completely done.
 

Dream Machine

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,085
Don't have any recent polling from NV, so it's possible that things have changed... Last polls were from the middle of November.

But with the information we have now, it looks like Biden will take it easily. As I've maintained for months- Until either Sanders or Warren drops out it's a longshot for the both of them. And at this point, as much as it pains me to say, it looks like Warren is completely done.
I wonder how long Warren will stay in if she keeps trending the same

Unfortunately, I think she will play it safe and wait on her endorsement too
 

mutantmagnet

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,401
We've been hearing this since when? May? lol.

Coincidentally enough (because I wasn't thinking that far back ,see response to Aaron.)




RealClearPolitics 2020 Dem Presidential Primary
National average

December 30, 2018:
Biden 27.3
Sanders 18.0

December 30, 2019:
Biden 28.3
Sanders 18.9

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Biden's lead hasn't been meaningfully threatened at all this primary cycle, outside of a brief instant where Warren nudged ahead of him before losing support to Buttigieg. Biden and Sanders' numbers have barely budged in a year.

What Sanders has to hope for is that early victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada lead to national momentum, either enough to cut into Biden's lead with African-Americans (and thus in the Southern states) or make it irrelevant. He's the best positioned candidate to make it happen, I would just really prefer people not get it in their heads that Sanders has this in the bag and that if he loses it's only the DNC's fault or whatever.



national-polls.png


Biden and Sanders have lost some of their favor-ability but Biden's slip is much bigger which is why Sanders and Biden are much closer except for the time period Pete Buttegieg was an unknown quantity.

Regardless I don't think Sanders has a better chance than Biden, only that Biden is starting to show signs of being at risk of losing what looks like a sizeable advantage.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Why do you say Sanders won't win Nevada? He polls decently well there and with hispanic voters in general.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/nevada/

The most recent polling there has Biden ahead by anywhere from 6-10 points, the last time Sanders even tied was in a CNN poll from September.

That being said, there's also been a dearth of quality state-level polling.

Coincidentally enough (because I wasn't thinking that far back ,see response to Aaron.)





national-polls.png


Biden and Sanders have lost some of their favor-ability but Biden's slip is much bigger which is why Sanders and Biden are much closer except for the time period Pete Buttegieg was an unknown quantity.

Regardless I don't think Sanders has a better chance than Biden, only that Biden is starting to show signs of being at risk of losing what looks like a sizeable advantage.
your chart shows Biden's lead over Sanders as bigger now than it was when it started (March 2019)
 

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,165
I would be fine with Bernie, I've decided he is probably my 2nd/3rd option behind Warren. I've had my grievances with him in the past but I think he is better than most of the rest of the field even if he can be a bit tone-deaf at times (following the Primaries more closely has made me realize all candidates can be, it's hard to be perfect).
 
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Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Don't have any recent polling from NV, so it's possible that things have changed... Last polls were from the middle of November.

But with the information we have now, it looks like Biden will take it easily. As I've maintained for months- Until either Sanders or Warren drops out it's a longshot for the both of them. And at this point, as much as it pains me to say, it looks like Warren is completely done.
Fox had Sanders down 6 and yougov down 10 from those mid November polls. That's not that big for a state level primary well before people start paying attention. And he was tied in the CNN poll mid sept, so it's not like he's fundamentally weak there.
 

JasoNsider

Developer
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
2,147
Canada
Racism and classism. America probably has racism more at the forefront than some other countries, due to the demographics of America and prior slavery introducing a sizeable African-American population.

Can't have the "pesky black people" getting anything "free". Ironically missing the whole fucking point that it's healthcare for all, funded by state tax, not just "free healthcare if you are black paid for exclusively by the whites".

It's sad. Time and time again in history two main things, both linked, show how they lift up the living for all. Women having control over their reproductive rights, and healthcare for all.

Those two things help lift soo many people out of poverty, yet America has its history of religious bullshit fighting one, and insane racism and classism fighting the other.

What a great country 👏

Healthcare should be a human right in any wealthy country that dares say it is a "1st world country".

Legitimately messed up. The fact that it's racist and classist on the face of it just blows my mind.

Americans should be utterly ashamed of their healthcare system.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/nevada/

The most recent polling there has Biden ahead by anywhere from 6-10 points, the last time Sanders even tied was in a CNN poll from September.

That being said, there's also been a dearth of quality state-level polling.


your chart shows Biden's lead over Sanders as bigger now than it was when it started (March 2019)
I mean, of course if polls don't change Biden will win, but polls have changed all the time by similar amounts as the current gap. Especially starting around a month before voting when people start to pay attention.
 

Kayla

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,316
Warren needs to drop out and endorse Bernie. People have moved on from her campaign.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
Warren needs to drop out and endorse Bernie. People have moved on from her campaign.
Even if she couldn't win (and we're not even at that point yet) there's no reason for her to drop out. She has money, she's polling pretty well, and the more delegates she racks up the more power she has at the convention.
 

Snake Eater

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
11,385
I would like to see it but just can't imagine the establishment democrats allowing it
 

Hawkijustin

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
375
Iowa
personally hope Biden wins but if it's the bern I'll vote for him. I knew too many people including personal friends that acted like fucking children when he lost in 2016 and either didn't vote or voted 3rd party out of spite.
Get trump out at all costs first!
 
Oct 25, 2017
2,274
I want this to be true. I've really come around again on Bernie. He's seemingly the only one brave enough to support giving prisoners voting rights.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Whoever gets the most votes in the Primary will be the Democratic nominee for President.

No one "allows it."
Especially considering superdelegates don't get a say in the first round anymore, a change the DNC made explicitly to appease the Sanders crowd.

If Sanders wins a majority of the delegates, he's the nominee, plain and simple. It's the same bar any of the other candidates have to clear.

If the top contender only holds a plurality that's when you might see some back door fuckery, but all I foresee the superdelegates doing is affirming the #1 choice.
 

Ashodin

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,597
Durham, NC
Biden's definitely going down. We'll see some power moves in the early months before super tuesday for Sanders.
 
Nov 11, 2017
2,249
Bernie is a once in a generation candidate.

Whenever I drive through rural areas it is so clear that the US is in a deeply sad state. The idea of another establishment dem is quite depressing because we all know where that'll eventually lead when drastic changes are not made.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
Whoever gets the most votes in the Primary will be the Democratic nominee for President.

No one "allows it."

Do ads and coverage not influence votes?
Hence don't wealthy donors not have a disproportionate effect on election outcomes?

This naive idealism of the current political process in the United States is simply not based in reality. I fact, it's an illusion that the oligarchy is happy to propagate.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
Do ads and coverage not influence votes?
Hence don't wealthy donors not have a disproportionate effect on election outcomes?

This naive idealism of the current political process in the United States is simply not based in reality. I fact, it's an illusion that the oligarchy is happy to propagate.
There are limits on how much money someone can donate to a campaign, and it's not like Bernie is hurting for money, so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

And I spent many years working in politics at the National level, so I think I have a pretty good understanding of It in general.
 

Deleted member 11413

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
22,961
There are limits on how much money someone can donate to a campaign, and it's not like Bernie is hurting for money, so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

And I spent many years working in politics at the National level, so I think I have a pretty good understanding of It in general.
One purpose of PACs is to circumvent those donation limits though. Come on, you know this
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
There are limits on how much money someone can donate to a campaign, and it's not like Bernie is hurting for money, so I don't know what point you are trying to make.

And I spent many years working in politics at the National level, so I think I have a pretty good understanding of It in general.



You understand how politics work but forgot that Superpacs and think tanks exist???

Sorry, but I'm not impressed... :/

Money Itself is not the issue. It's disproportionate money that's the problem.

So just so we're clear, youre ok with citizens united and the NRA stonewalling gun regulation despite a majority of citizens (including Republicans) wanting some reform? The integrity of our Democratic process is totally fine and working as it should.

I just can't....

We're truly fucked.
 

Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
You understand how politics work but forgot that Superpacs and think tanks exist???

Sorry, but I'm not impressed... :/

Money Itself is not the issue. It's disproportionate money that's the problem.

So just so we're clear, your ok with citizens united and the NRA stonewalling gun regulation despite a majority of citizens (including Republicans) wanting some reform? The integrity of our Democratic process is totally fine and working as it should.

I just can't....

We're truly fucked.
Goose, I said none of that. You really need to stop putting words in other posters mouths', it doesn't lead to good conversation and is frankly just rude besides.

Superpacs are a thing, and money in politics is an issue, of course it is. But in the context of the Democratic primary, Bernie has a ton of money, and Superpacs that support him. He is not being shut out. He is getting his message out to primary voters. He has a real shot at winning. The only thing that will stop him is if he gets less votes than another candidate, which is exactly what should happen. No one is stuffing ballot boxes.
 

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
Goose, I said none of that. You really need to stop putting words in other posters mouths', it doesn't lead to good conversation and is frankly just rude besides.

Superpacs are a thing, and money in politics is an issue, of course it is. But in the context of the Democratic primary, Bernie has a ton of money, and Superpacs that support him. He is not being shut out. He is getting his message out to primary voters. He has a real shot at winning. The only thing that will stop him is if he gets less votes than another candidate, which is exactly what should happen. No one is stuffing ballot boxes.

Matt.

I'm trying as hard as possible to be restrained and as honest as possible. Especially because you're a mod.

You tell me to not use strawmen and yet you go to "stuffing ballot boxes", which is not the argument at all!

The whole point is that depending where the money comes from, different voices are disproportionately amplified leading to different votes than you would have under a more representative Democratic process.

If few wealthy donors donate a shitton of money to one candidate and that money translates into more votes for said candidate, then those wealthy donors have a disproportionate voice. (Hence the original "allowing" argument made by another poster).

You're both saying that this is an issue but then turn around and say it's a none issue. Sorry, you can't have it both ways. Why bring up campaign contribution limits when you acknowledge there's other ways to bypass them?? Are you legitimately interested in having an honest discussion? I'm becoming increasingly skeptical. :/
 
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Deleted member 43

Account closed at user request
Banned
Oct 24, 2017
9,271
Matt.

I'm trying as hard as possible to be restrained and as honest as possible. Especially because you're a mod.

You tell me to not use strawmen and yet you go to "stuffing ballot boxes"

The whole point is that depending where the money comes from, different voices are disproportionately amplified leading to different votes than you would have under a more representative Democratic process.

If few wealthy donors donate a shitton on money to one candidate and that money translates into more votes for said candidate, then those wealthy donors have a disproportionate voice. (Hence the original "allowing" argument made by another poster).

You're both saying that this is an issue but then turn around and say it's a none issue. Sorry, you can't have it both ways.
But...that's not happening in this primary as far as we know. Bernie has the money other candidates do, he's using it, his message is getting out there and he has a shot at winning. He's not being locked out or ignored.

Democratic primary voters all have had a lot of time to get introduced to and learn about Bernie and his policies, this cycle and in 2016. If you are arguing his message is being shut out or that he's an unknown, well I just disagree, and polling seems to back me up.

The system isn't perfect and there needs to be change, but ultimately Democratic Primary voters will decide who their party's candidate for President is.