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Democratic insiders: “Bernie could win the nomination”
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
- Start date
Yeah she was. She lost for a myriad of reasons, some her own fault, others not so much. Trump won because enough people wanted something, anything other than the status quo she represents. And racism. Lots of racism.
Calm down. This is a celebration thread. Only good vibes here.
I have a sinking feeling warren and sanders are going to split the anti-establishment dem vote and leave us with Biden.
The question is how he broadens his support, particularly to those who voted Clinton in the '16 primary. The estimation is that Warren has more wiggle room in that regard, although Bernie's more loyal base means that if it's a contest of endurance, he'll leg it out longer against Biden.
What's the second choice polling look like for Warren and Buttigieg supporters?
What's the second choice polling look like for Warren and Buttigieg supporters?
I still think he has a pretty narrow path. Ultimately he lost pretty badly to Clinton in a two-person race, so you figure that ~45% is his absolute ceiling -- Clinton was historically unpopular, and if you preferred Clinton to Sanders you'll probably prefer practically any other serious candidate to Sanders. Maybe the delegate math works out in a weird and very favorable way for him, but these contests are more-or-less proportional and so you've got to figure that in the end the large majority of the delegates will have been won by people other than Sanders. And Warren is the only one who'd likely endorse him if she drops out, and so probably the only one whose delegates would mostly break for Sanders. There's still very likely to be a majority of delegates who would prefer a specific non-Sanders candidate to Sanders.
Now, maybe if Biden fades (which people have been predicting for a long time but still hasn't happened) Sanders could end up with a plurality, but then he still has to win an argument that having a plurality means he should get the nomination on a later ballot. That'll be hard. And iirc the superdelegates still get to vote after the first ballot.
Now, maybe if Biden fades (which people have been predicting for a long time but still hasn't happened) Sanders could end up with a plurality, but then he still has to win an argument that having a plurality means he should get the nomination on a later ballot. That'll be hard. And iirc the superdelegates still get to vote after the first ballot.
You are right. I get a little worked in in political threads as I am autistic and the half truths people say to push narratives often get me worked up.
I am glad Biden doesn't have this thing lock up.
If Bernie can win Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada in a one-two-one punch, then I will go full Bernie dork when South Carolina and Super Tuesday come. He's losing SC for sure, but then it will be exciting to see by how much will Joe Biden actually win it by because some SC voters will surely jump on the Bernie train if they see he's won the last three contests.
I wouldn't go that far, honestly. Unless I'm missing something, no one actually lied. It was only a few days (two, iirc) Sanders' spokesperson when asked why it wasn't revealed sooner: "that's the moment when the most accurate and up-to-date summary could be given by doctors." Which is fine, imo.
Anyway, I'd be ecstatic with Bern 4 Prez. Actually give some fucking hope to a lot of people. Tho we'd have a ton of issues with the senate obviously... which I hope flips to counteract that. How possible would it be for the Senate to flip actually? I haven't looked into it.
Not if he can't put a dent in Biden's African-American support. So far no one's been able to do that. I wish someone would, but Iowa doesn't matter if it doesn't change that dynamic.
I think Sanders will take the first four primaries. The momentum will be huge if that comes to pass, and that could be what does it.
I also think the chances of Biden crumbling continue to grow each time another candidate drops out. People like Buttigieg will eventually have to attack Biden to steal voters from them to continue scraping by.
I disagree with this on a political level, but we don't even need to get into that - that's not how it's gonna go down simply because of how the primaries are structured. Momentum is too important, and the voting doesn't happen all at once. If there was a split within a single ideological group, it'd eventually be resolved with a focus on a single candidate between the two over the course of the voting season.
Biden might still take it, of course, but that's definitely not gonna be the reason if it does.
He hasn't really shifted in the polls and Biden hasn't dropped off and it is going to be a moot point when say the South Carolina primary hits.
The earliest states for voting are definitely in his favor over Warren. And while I don't consider myself a Bernie die-hard, he is still my favorite candidate overall, and it's easy to see why he has so many loyal supporters. He has that authentic curmudgeon quality that Trump has, only his actually IS real, and not just a bunch on nonsense.
Right now he's DOA in South Carolina. It's like a 24 point gap on the aggregate. There's going to need to be a GIGANTIC shift in the African-American vote for anyone to take that primary. And right now New Hampshire is a nailbiter in terms of polling. I'm not exactly getting my hopes up.
Momentum from a couple of tight wins probably won't do the job, Biden would need to come in like 4th in the first two in order to get the shift needed. I'd been hopeful someone would overtake him until late last month. The top candidates have largely been static in terms of support, outside a Pete surge in the early states.
Biden's black support is not set in stone. While he's somewhat locked up the black boomers, black youth are far more savvy and informed, unlikely to just cast a vote for him because he was Obama's VP. Look for the same erosion of black support Kamala suffered to occur under Biden as black media begins targeting him.
He's not winning SC, but the other three are certainly possible.
Sanders has passionate followers and strong infrastructure from 2016, not surprised that he is strong towards to the finish
Works for me, I'll be thrilled to vote for him in the general if he gets it
No matter who wins the nom, if they end up losing the general it is going to be...well, a real bad time, for a lot of people, but definitely whoever was diehard supporters of that candidate that lost. If Warren gets the nom and loses the general, expect to have the idea of putting up a woman candidate to be completely off the table for the forseeable future. If Biden or Buttigieg gets it and then loses, the anti-establishment/socialist wing is pretty much going to just stop talking to the democratic establishment(and will also themselves be blamed), and if Bernie loses the general then say goodbye to socdem policies, anti-corporate rhetoric, new public anything, green new deal, etc.. There's no scenario where the dem nom loses the general and it's not a complete nightmare and total shift in the democratic party, one way or the other.
No matter who wins the nom, if they end up losing the general it is going to be...well, a real bad time, for a lot of people, but definitely whoever was diehard supporters of that candidate that lost. If Warren gets the nom and loses the general, expect to have the idea of putting up a woman candidate to be completely off the table for the forseeable future. If Biden or Buttigieg gets it and then loses, the anti-establishment/socialist wing is pretty much going to just stop talking to the democratic establishment(and will also themselves be blamed), and if Bernie loses the general then say goodbye to socdem policies, anti-corporate rhetoric, new public anything, green new deal, etc.. There's no scenario where the dem nom loses the general and it's not a complete nightmare and total shift in the democratic party, one way or the other.
Don't apologize. Everything you were saying was 100% right. And I say this as someone who will be voting for Bernie in the primaries.
Nonetheless, if Biden ends up winning the nomination, I'll be okay with that. If Black voters feel that Biden is their guy, then I have no problem throwing my support behind him, too. We can't go around saying "listen to Black voters!" and then renege on that promise just because they supported someone who wasn't progressive enough for our tastes.
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I mean, total honesty, I'm really hoping someone other than Biden wins. I've got issues with all of the candidates, but I'd really prefer not to have to hold my nose and vote for Biden in the general. At this point, the primary just feels a lot like the 2016 GOP primary. There's a candidate with an important chunk of the electorate on lock and everyone else is just waiting for them to screw up instead of attacking because they want to grab that support.
So you're gonna vote Sanders over Biden? Assuming those are the only likely choices in your state when it comes time to vote.
I've accepted it at this point, to be honest.
I wish him well in the general, our court system depends on it. Apart from that, he'll be slightly easier to tune out than Trump, especially once reality hits his supporters.
I wish him well in the general, our court system depends on it. Apart from that, he'll be slightly easier to tune out than Trump, especially once reality hits his supporters.
Please stop.
(I do have to say, as much as we disagree and butt heads, you're probably my favorite Sanders stan, lol)
If that's the choice by the time it gets to NY? Yup. If you thought otherwise then you really don't know me at all.
Have a feeling it's all going to be done and dusted by the time I get to vote though. I'm pretty late in the cycle this time.
Sanders is the only one with the personality to beat Trump
He's a grumpy old fuck and thats a good thing.
He's a grumpy old fuck and thats a good thing.
LMAO. You actually engaged me and we discussed in another thread. You're good people.
But JABEE has been dragging the Sanders campaign for a while now. Sometimes I wake up early and read his posts and think Bernie has won the nomination, JABEE is that dedicated.
Oh stop now, you're good people too.
Some polling I saw has suggested his supporters are least likely to abandon him, which strikes me as a huge advantage in the Iowa and Nevada caucuses.
If he can also win New Hampshire he might peel away enough of Biden's margin to edge him out.
California being on Super Tuesday could also help him keep up if Biden's strong support amongst African American voters doesn't weaken much.
If he can also win New Hampshire he might peel away enough of Biden's margin to edge him out.
California being on Super Tuesday could also help him keep up if Biden's strong support amongst African American voters doesn't weaken much.
Being painted with the Socialist paintbrush is going to hurt. Trump is going to do so much damn fear mongering.
It's a win win if Bernie gets the nomination.
We could have socialized medicine if he wins and if he loses we don't have to hear how Bernie would have won in 2016 for a while :p
We could have socialized medicine if he wins and if he loses we don't have to hear how Bernie would have won in 2016 for a while :p
Thanks Buddy.
I really hope the string of positive press continues from mainstream outlets.
My issues with Bernie have always been his history on gun control, his pivoting to generalized income inequality on every single issue, and his need to put his foot in his mouth when it comes to race.
Like I said, I got issues with everyone this cycle.
That's true, but my hope is his campaign will make socialism seem less crazy than we have been educated to believe in this country.
If the focus is on that aspect, I am confident in our ability to win that argument.
That one especially. I thought he'd learned but he did it again during the last debate. Was kind of disappointing.
What has he put his foot in his mouth re: race this primary lead up?