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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

FacelessSamurai

Banned
Dec 31, 2017
1,430
cakely said:
It's good enough to play some of the best-selling games of 2017, and 2018 ... some of them exclusively.
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I went from being excited to owning a Switch to selling it only a few months after owning it due to a lack of compelling software. Almost all worthwhile indie games can be bought on other systems for less money since they've been available there for longer and usually on sale or free with games with gold/PSN+ and have much better visuals. Big 3rd party games are either not available on Switch, or look much worse and cost the same.

So in the end, I find it hard to justify paying 400$ here in Canada for a few Nintendo exclusives (most of which I've already played on Wii U) that are being sold at full price (on a handheld system at that, let's not kid ourselves here) when both Xbox One and PS4 and have much more compelling software library and more sales on their software than Nintendo.

I'm actually surprised it is doing this good, as for me it's the first gen where I actually do not own a Nintendo console since the NES since I think it is severely lacking.

I also do not consider the Switch to be a competitor to PS4 and Xbox One but more of a successor to the 3DS with no more competition since Sony seems to have abandoned handheld consoles, which is why the Switch is thriving right now.
 

Deleted member 49804

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,868
1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2008
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004
11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, April 2018 (16 days / 3 weeks tracking)


* includes digital
** includes digital and bundle copies.
 
SinCityAssassin

SinCityAssassin

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
KennyX said:
1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales
1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.6 millions, December 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, September 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)
2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, September 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, November 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, November 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), November 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)
7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, March 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, September 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, March 2008
10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, October 2004
11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, April 2018


* includes digital
** includes digital and bundle copies.
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Man that halo block.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
So was 3.6M enough to get Smash onto the yearly top 10? I feel like it's just a tad too low but I don't know the numbers.
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
csheep said:
Hardware stuff aside did anyone post physical retail numbers? Apologies if repeat:

Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1647000
RDR2 - 1,435,000
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Awesome.

Zedark said:
Well, then, that confirms Smash as the biggest exclusive NPD debut ever. Great performance! With digital it could maybe have done 5M, I think.
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Yeah it had a whole bunch of bundled digital psales back in November too, right? We should have a better idea once Nintendo reports in a couple weeks (or perhaps they were keen to share digital with NPD for this one title?).

FWIW, per NPD (unless this has been adjusted since) Brawl sold 4.17M from Mar - Dec 2008, so it is likely that Ultimate (w/Digital) has surpassed Brawl's full first year figures as well.
 

Wander_

Banned
Feb 26, 2018
5,552
Last edited:
Pooroomoo

Pooroomoo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,972
donny2112 said:
Thanks! So rounded to nearest 5K, that's 1770K, 920K, and 800K. Results ...

NPD Prediction Results - December 2018

Units

1. Pooroomoo - 260,000
2. Sangetsu-II - 360,000
3. Fdkn - 406,000
4. Geinrendour - 410,000
5. Jonno394 - 460,000
5. kowalski - 460,000
7. Unkindled - 468,000
8. brykuhn91 - 500,000
9. JSG87 - 510,000
9. ScopehJ - 510,000
11. PapoMD - 520,000
12. Peek-a-boo! - 525,000
13. Phantom Thief - 554,000
14. Mercenary09 - 560,000
14. higashi042 - 560,000
16. Falconbox - 600,000
17. Darth Smurf X - 610,000
17. Phendrift - 610,000
17. Toni - 610,000
20. Caiops - 630,000
20. Rowsdower - 630,000
22. MrTired - 645,000
23. Acevil - 660,000
23. Bundy - 660,000
23. Elandyll - 660,000
23. HighJump - 660,000
23. Noobie - 660,000
23. chobel - 660,000
29. fiendcode - 665,556
30. Kaveri - 667,000
31. iag - 670,000
31. slavesnyder - 670,000
33. allan-bh - 685,000
34. Corporate Clown - 705,000
35. Charamiwa - 710,000
35. Gryflet - 710,000
35. Jbone115 - 710,000
35. Stanng243 - 710,000
35. pitseleh - 710,000
40. ZSaberLink - 724,000
41. hannybunny24 - 730,000
41. jroc74 - 730,000
43. Majiebeast - 737,000
44. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 745,000
45. ThatRandomCliff - 746,000
46. score01 - 748,000
47. Rion - 750,000
48. Evangelista - 760,000
49. Expy - 775,000
50. freeradical - 776,000
51. Myriotes - 777,000
52. Andromeda - 805,000
53. Ritz - 810,000
53. Robo - 810,000
53. srtrestre - 810,000
53. stealthyfrog - 810,000
57. DMVfan123 - 820,000
58. DarkDetective - 840,000
58. Simba1 - 840,000
60. sinonobu - 842,000
61. KennyX - 845,000
62. PillFencer - 850,000
63. cakely - 851,000
64. chroeser - 855,000
65. skittzo0413 - 859,000
66. ConfusedGamer - 860,000
66. DeuceGamer - 860,000
66. LordKano - 860,000
66. useyourloaf - 860,000
70. gargles - 870,000
71. El Manco - 876,000
72. CosmicBolt - 895,000
73. Aleh - 910,000
73. Bitch Pudding - 910,000
73. Heropon. - 910,000
73. Muzy - 910,000
73. PortisheadBiscuit - 910,000
78. Hammer24 - 911,000
79. TurnoftheCentury - 935,000
80. Welfare - 940,000
81. Pachter - 950,000
82. Eslayer - 960,000
82. KillerMan91 - 960,000
84. Astrogamer - 980,000
85. Dr. Mario - 1,000,000
86. Lwill - 1,005,000
87. Ikaruga - 1,010,000
87. MrCafecito - 1,010,000
87. Peleo - 1,010,000
87. Roukira - 1,010,000
87. Shadow of the Void - 1,010,000
87. Sterok - 1,010,000
87. pPuRLe - 1,010,000
94. plusaflag - 1,027,000
95. Evergarden - 1,040,000
96. Jay tee - 1,060,000
96. Kill3r7 - 1,060,000
96. Revolsin - 1,060,000
96. Rouk' - 1,060,000
96. anexanhume - 1,060,000
96. byDoS - 1,060,000
96. neroxyr - 1,060,000
96. wilmbreak - 1,060,000
104. Ron Paul - 1,076,000
105. Heruderu - 1,080,000
106. Paronth - 1,095,000
107. Kissenkopf - 1,097,100
108. Ex-Actarus - 1,110,000
109. Harris Katz - 1,120,000
110. Piston - 1,160,000
110. Zedark - 1,160,000
110. julian - 1,160,000
113. Maxina - 1,172,000
114. Martl - 1,207,000
115. James - 1,210,000
115. Kolx - 1,210,000
115. MasterChumly - 1,210,000
115. Mington - 1,210,000
119. Raster - 1,240,000
120. klanar - 1,245,000
121. ccieag - 1,250,000
121. kjtc1979 - 1,250,000
123. Moltres006 - 1,285,000
124. Alblowi - 1,290,000
125. Wander_ - 1,310,000
126. Nocturnal - 1,332,000
127. Umibozu - 1,348,000
128. JayBee - 1,379,000
129. DanR93 - 1,385,000
130. Menx64 - 1,409,000
131. derpysquirtle64 - 1,410,000
132. kyo2004 - 1,450,000
133. wolflink - 1,459,999
134. Davy - 1,460,000
134. Joseki - 1,460,000
136. WestEgg - 1,560,000
137. SinCItyAssassin - 1,589,300
138. HuskerfanChuck - 1,610,000
138. NicknameMy - 1,610,000
138. donny2112 - 1,610,000
141. Slarvax - 1,841,000
142. Psykodoughboy - 1,950,000
143. Limabean01 - 2,119,553


Points
Code: 
     December 2018                   Overall 2018 Top (10/12)
01.  Pooroomoo              119.84   Andromeda              1,029.92
02.  Sangetsu-II            113.69   Expy                   1,012.09
03.  Fdkn                   110.01   Welfare                1,005.19
04.  Jonno394               101.78   Peek-a-boo!            1,002.62
05.  Unkindled              101.34   CosmicBolt             1,002.22
06.  kowalski               100.58   Ryng Manuel Tolu       1,001.98
07.  JSG87                   98.72   MrTired                1,001.86
08.  PapoMD                  97.15   Elandyll                 997.37
09.  Peek-a-boo!             96.65   Fdkn                     993.11
10.  Geinrendour             96.19   kowalski                 990.68
11.  Mercenary09             96.05   allan-bh                 989.10
12.  Caiops                  95.96   chroeser                 988.29
13.  Phendrift               95.38   jroc74                   985.68
14.  ScopehJ                 95.24   Kaveri                   980.26
15.  iag                     95.24   pitseleh                 978.58
16.  higashi042              95.18   useyourloaf              977.51
17.  Elandyll                95.04   Gryflet                  972.84
18.  Noobie                  94.93   KillerMan91              969.63
19.  Phantom Thief           94.91   jayu26                   967.45
20.  Rowsdower               94.55   Sangetsu-II              967.30
21.  chobel                  94.44   Bitch Pudding            965.71
22.  jroc74                  94.40   Corporate Clown          964.75
23.  Bundy                   94.17   Nocturnal                959.80
24.  Kaveri                  93.92   Primethius               957.01
25.  allan-bh                93.81   score01                  956.89
26.  fiendcode               93.63   Wandu                    956.54
27.  Darth Smurf X           93.10   Grads                    955.23
28.  HighJump                93.03   donny2112                949.40
29.  Expy                    92.70   Hammer24                 948.62
30.  ThatRandomCliff         92.64   freeradical              948.52
31.  slavesnyder             92.59   slavesnyder              946.56
32.  MrTired                 92.34   Darth Smurf X            945.16
33.  pitseleh                92.25   chobel                   944.57
34.  Andromeda               92.12   cakely                   943.74
35.  score01                 91.87   Zedark                   941.01
36.  Ryng Manuel Tolu        91.82   MasterChumly             939.97
37.  Myriotes                91.79   Astrogamer               939.91
38.  Bitch Pudding           91.20   Kill3r7                  936.86
39.  DMVfan123               91.20   Majiebeast               935.90
40.  ZSaberLink              91.14   HighJump                 932.93
41.  Toni                    90.81   Martl                    932.51
42.  DarkDetective           90.71   TurnoftheCentury         932.45
43.  DeuceGamer              90.67   James                    932.40
44.  Jbone115                90.62   Stanng243                932.13
45.  freeradical             90.46   ConfusedGamer            927.68
46.  Corporate Clown         90.42   Noobie                   910.16
47.  hannybunny24            90.38   Slarvax                  905.99
48.  brykuhn91               89.81   DanR93                   897.77
49.  Aleh                    89.73   Sterok                   895.14
50.  cakely                  89.72   Myriotes                 875.40

Congratulations, Pooroomoo for December! Andromeda is the winner for the year in points! :D
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Thanks, I actually hoped to be far from the mark when I made my prediction regarding the Switch :-)
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
How long will that record stand? NPD does not group the Pokemon SKUs, so doubtful that Gen 8 will take it next year. We do not know if AC will explode on the Switch like other franchises have, and outside of Japan, that's more leggy than front-ended hype.

Sony/MS are providing digital shares, so maybe Halo can make a comeback. If Nintendo starts sharing digital data then of course we'll see new chart toppers - I think BOTW has fostered enough good-will that a hyped sequel launch on a mid-cycle Switch would open massively. Maybe TLOU2 could do it, but I think that is relatively stronger in Europe than here (especially compared to Spider-Man, among Sony exclusives). Of course the next Smash will contend but who knows how far down the road that is now.
 
Rouk'

Rouk'

Member
Jan 10, 2018
8,155
csheep said:
Hardware stuff aside did anyone post physical retail numbers? Apologies if repeat:

Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1647000
RDR2 - 1,435,000
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

So... Smash outsold CoD and RDRII combined ? Impressive to say the least

Edit: Also, unless I'm mistaken, does that mean CoD takes the top 1 spot for best selling software of 2018 ?
 
julian

julian

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,786
skittzo0413 said:
I wouldn't make a thread on a leak like that if I were you, it brings unwanted attention to the leaker.

Nintendo will likely issue PR about this soon, I'd wait for that. If not them then NPD will most certainly discuss it in their release.
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I wouldn't make the thread because you can already sense people ready to type out, "oh yeah but it was a longer tracking period so it doesn't count."
 
Zedark

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
m051293 said:
How long will that record stand? NPD does not group the Pokemon SKUs, so doubtful that Gen 8 will take it next year. We do not know if AC will explode on the Switch like other franchises have, and outside of Japan, that's more leggy than front-ended hype.

Sony/MS are providing digital shares, so maybe Halo can make a comeback. If Nintendo starts sharing digital data then of course we'll see new chart toppers - I think BOTW has fostered enough good-will that a hyped sequel launch on a mid-cycle Switch would open massively. Maybe TLOU2 could do it, but I think that is relatively stronger in Europe than here (especially compared to Spider-Man, among Sony exclusives). Of course the next Smash will contend but who knows how far down the road that is now.
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This is really unprecedented. Nothing except Halo has ever come close. I doubt Animal Crossing will launch in December, so it's basically impossible for it to do those numbers outside the holiday period. So yeah, if Halo Infinite doesn't do it, then it will take many years, possibly decades. Then again, who knows what future exclusive franchise come around. I don't think TLOU2 can do it, either.
 

Deleted member 49804

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 21, 2018
1,868
OfficerRaichu15

OfficerRaichu15

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
Zedark said:
This is really unprecedented. Nothing except Halo has ever come close. I doubt Animal Crossing will launch in December, so it's basically impossible for it to do those numbers outside the holiday period. So yeah, if Halo Infinite doesn't do it, then it will take many years, possibly decades. Then again, who knows what future exclusive franchise come around. I don't think TLOU2 can do it, either.
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I don't even know if Halo Infinite can do it either since Halo 3 was literally an event.

Only ones I could think of would be Pokémon(since Let's be honest this will actually be the first true home console Pokémon game and not a safe remake), or something like Last of Us 2.
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
csheep said:
Hardware stuff aside did anyone post physical retail numbers? Apologies if repeat:

Smash Ultimate - 3,592,000
COD Black Ops 4 - 1647000
RDR2 - 1,435,000
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

tenor.gif
 
Mbolibombo

Mbolibombo

Member
Oct 29, 2017
7,043
Yeah that's a lot of Smash :O

A potential PR from Nintendo could read as best December and Holiday of the generation while also posting the best ever launch for an exclusive in NPD history and selling most consoles in 2018?

Pretty good. But I read all over this forum today that Switch sales were dissapointing.. :P
 
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