Thanks for all the insight you've provided. It's always been a pleasure to read.
I don't know why people are so invested in any supposed console war. This ain't the early 90's
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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Thanks for all the insight you've provided. It's always been a pleasure to read.
I don't know why people are so invested in any supposed console war. This ain't the early 90's
Just wanted to pop in to say thank you to Benji for all the interesting insider info and predictions he has kindly discussed in the past and given his time to. I wish him the best and I hope he gets the rest he needs away from all the social media negativity!
Also congrats to the Switch for being the best selling in 2018 and for having the best December of the generation! It's great to see it doing so well for Nintendo even without a price drop or anything.
Also congrats to the Switch for being the best selling in 2018 and for having the best December of the generation! It's great to see it doing so well for Nintendo even without a price drop or anything.
For PS4, a $50 price cut will move the needle. I mean you have to be reasonable here and understand that it wont get it back to its peak performance (its 6 years later and about to hit 100 million), but it´ll keep its sales healthy coupled with big releases like Days Gone, Dreams, Death Stranding, etc.
Xbox could do the same, do a price cut and couple it with Gears 5, Crackdown 3, etc. but its not going to have much effect in comparison.
The selling power for both consoles is just very different.
I think the point here is that a $199 ps4 will sell a heck of a lot more and maybe even arrest the slide than an Xbox one for 199
I LOVED the OC. Califorrrrrniaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, CALIFORRRRRRRRRRNIAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
Yes, but it is also other aspects. For example, Sony barely moved the price lower than $299 most of 2018 while the Xbox One was at a sale price ($50 off or more) month to month for most the year. Even with that,, Sony sold about 1 million more units last year.
Sony had a dump strategy this holiday season in US. First off Spiderman in the $200 bundle was unnecessary, they would have sold the same amount of consoles without it, it would have taken longer but it would sell. Second no PS4 deal in December, only VR. For example they could have used those Spiderman copies and bundle them in December for $300. They would sell better than they did at it would cost them the same.
Taylor Townsend was secretly the best character on the show.
Crazy. I had both a PS1 and an N64 when I was a kid and it felt like both were big deals, unlike, say, the Dreamcast, the GameCube or the Xbox.
GC - 1.400.000 (as November 2008)
XB - 1.000.000 (as November 2008)
Same. Went in for the girls , stayed for the girls ahahahah
That's even more shocking. The GameCube outsold the N64 in France? And by a lot at that. What the fuck? The Xbox as well I thought had completely bombed.
Isn't N64 numbers inflated because of how well it did in the US? In europe and japan it did really bad.
What killed the 64 was the lack of Japanese third parties. It was flat with the SNES in the US.
Yeah, but growing up in France, the N64 was very popular around me. The generation after that, it felt like only the PS2 was popular, but looks like I was way off.
You should probably look at the fact that these consoles are nearly six years old and as a result are hitting a natural sales decline in their twilight years
The successors will come out in 2020 and sell a ton assuming they're competent products
We went through this exact same song and dance in 2012
Wow, I completely overestimated all three consoles. I'm not good at this game.
Although my fiscal year prediction of 18,7 million Switches sold from a month ago may still hold some merit. :P
Although my fiscal year prediction of 18,7 million Switches sold from a month ago may still hold some merit. :P
Switch is not comparable with mobile.
Mobile has been ready for serious gaming a while ago on the hardware side (with the lack of an efficient cooling system being the only challenge to overcome) , the problem is the software and the monster Google/Apple (and Microsoft to some extent) created pushing free crap just to see the number of downloads blow up on their store.
But from my experience, you can totally live with just Switch and PC already, with one system being a bit more versatile and the other with the best deals. It also depends on your lifestyle and your tastes obviously.
What many don't realize is that there is also quite a lot of planning involved in just shipping 1.8 million consoles, I wonder if there are or were any news on the system being sold out in some stores. Well I guess we'll see what Nintendo missed in December once we see January numbers, so far the Switch seems to do pretty good this month too I've heard.
Which song and dance? Good enough mobile power? Afaik, Switch is the first legitimate portable home console and I am just wondering if 'console on the go' is the future.
Or release date? The ps3 to ps4 transition was not planned particularly well from the business side, so I dont think they want to replicate that as they cannot count on Nintendo and MS both faceplanting again. One of the issues they had was waiting too long to release the next gen.
I should have said portable, as you need to maintain the user base who will buy $60+ games. Mobile, as in phone, isn't what i meant. Rather, are portble concoles the way forward?
This is the list to beat:
1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Dollar Sales
1) X360 - Halo: Reach (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
2) X360 - Halo 4 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
3) XBO - Halo 2 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)
4) X360 - Halo 3 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking | $225 million)
5) PS4 - Marvel's Spider-Man (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)
6) Wii - Super Smash Bros. Brawl (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)
x) XB1 - Halo 5: Guardians (5 days / 1 week tracking | $119 million**)
** retail only figure, while NPD has digital data for the release.
NSW - Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)
I have a question for you Welfare, I recall you saying that the gap between PS4 and Xbox One in the US wouldn´t be 4 million till Summer 2019 just last month. By your numbers, it looks like it will hit that either this month or February.
Were you overestimating Xbox´s performance in December THAT much or were numbers miscalculated?
The +4% is the growth in weekly average from November to December. December has 5 weeks, November 4, so the total growth is obviously much larger. YoY December sales grew 18% for Switch, YTD is something like 17% or so up as well, I believe (that's off the top of my head, though).
While I mostly lurk in the sales thread, I just want to say that I really appreciated the insight you brought to these threads. Your two cents made reading these sales threads a real treat. I hope you feel better after this and that even if you don't have anything more to do with sales discussion, you do stick around as a valued member of this community. If not, best of luck to you.
I expected Xbox One to sell more than 1M this December ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ PS4 was in the range I expected.
I think it happens either in February or March. Really depends how tax returns are handled this year given the shutdown.
YTD is +16%
Massively important point. Things could get real ugly(er) real quick for consumer spending if tax returns are held up.
This is the reason why my predictions were this bad. I don't know how the US system works, and why and when consumers have more or less to spent. Yeah, this is what I'll be going for to defend my horrible predictions. :P
Uh, ya I no.
Last year weekly average was +55%.
That's why I called +4% somewhat disappointing.
Of course this year's November was much better, but still.
that's because last year had cyber monday in december, this year it was in november
Well, considering November this year was up 75% compared to last year, that number isn't completely unexpected. Even if it had done 2.5 million, the weekly increase would have been less than last year. What it could tell you, I think, is that Switch does very strongly with a modest price reduction (300 dollar + MK8D). Maybe that could signal some very strong sales for next year if a price drop happens.
Edit: Oh, and Cyber Monday being in November doesn't help this year, either, as LordKano correctly observed.
For what exactly is the Switch supposed to be good enough except Nintendo Games and Indies? Certainly not the big games like RDR 2 or the upcoming Cyberpunk 2077.
Yes, please lets talk about Cyberpunkt 2077 my most anticipated game of the generation.
NPD sales topic will also be madness, when the game releases.
I expect the game to do better than RDR2 just from very early indicators, tho.
Yeah, that's not happening. It could have an overall better reception but it's not gonna beat out monsters like RDR 2
Mid tier titles, fighting games, and other more scalable AAA titles, such as Doom. There's a big gulf between Nintendo's games and indie titles and those aren't the only ones the Switch is "good enough for"