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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

shark97

Banned
Nov 7, 2017
5,327
bombshell said:
If you say so (lol)


Let's entertain for a second that your hugely overestimated Xbox numbers are correct. Who are these retailers that are buying 4 million of unsold stock of the generation's less popular console? That's like the whole 9-10 months of yearly pre-season Xbox worldwide sales.

PS4 sold to consumers number is tracking only about a million behind the shipped number at any time.
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There's a lot of "slop" in shipped numbers, at least there were last gen. Who knows. Everything from I dunno refurbs, demo units, taco bell giveaways...

I have thought about Sony's shipped: sold is a lot tighter this gen. Maybe just in time type inventory systems mean it's like that for everybody.

Everybody else is saying 40-42 in the absence of definitive numbers.

I'm saying maybe 46.

That's like 10% difference.

Interesting you did not comment on the person I replied to using proved false EA numbers, still? Good thing they screwed up, or even more people would probably be assuming they are correct for no reason...
 
bombshell

bombshell

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Oct 27, 2017
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shark97 said:
I have thought about Sony's shipped: sold is a lot tighter this gen. Maybe just in time type inventory systems mean it's like that for everybody.
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One thing is for sure. If retailers are only buying 1 million of unsold stock of the popular console, they aren't buying 4 million of the less popular one 5 years into a generation.

shark97 said:
Everybody else is saying 40-42 in the absence of definitive numbers.

I'm saying maybe 46.

That's like 10% difference.
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That's part of the problem. You're now saying "maybe 46", but you clearly want the 50m that you also presented long ago in the September predictions thread to be true.

shark97 said:
Off my head (if sales gurus can LINK updated numbers, great!)

25m USA
5m UK
Canada~10% USA estimated? So ~2.5m
France 1.3, Germany 1.3 IIRC (very very years old numbers now)
Spain ~300k?
japan (lol) 100k

that's about 35. au must be 1m (just guessing though).
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So with (most of before someone screams "but MEXICO") the big Xbox markets accounted for in your tally, where exactly do you want your missing 10m (14m in reality) to come from?
 

edryr

Banned
Feb 15, 2018
126
shark97 said:
link to those official 65% numbers?

i definitely believe it's higher than 40-42. if it's shipped 50 (it almost certainly has) then it's probably sold like 46. in the absence of evidence though we are only guessing. my guess is based on historical data though, yours must by necessity be based on nothing. If you have up to date hardware numbers for Germany, France, Canada, spain, Mexico, Australia, russia, norway/finland/sweden poland, brazil, netherlands, italy, etc let me know.

i think people have been saying Xbox isn't even sold in very very small countries in europe for at least 20 years now or i've been reading it that long. even if true, sales are moving online.

EA's numbers? those were proven false a long time ago. Literally they said Xbox sold less worldwide than it had provably sold via npd just in USA one year IIRC. So if you are using those EA numbers it says a lot about your accuracy.

Off my head (if sales gurus can LINK updated numbers, great!)

25m USA
5m UK
Canada~10% USA estimated? So ~2.5m
France 1.3, Germany 1.3 IIRC (very very years old numbers now)
Spain ~300k?
japan (lol) 100k

that's about 35. au must be 1m (just guessing though).
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Few posts earlier, i gave it. September 2016 : 14M xbox in US, 22M ww.
 

Deleted member 49804

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edryr said:
https://discourse-cdn-sjc1.com/game.../69a6d5d8967bcbf9ad2f295d8647f4afbe987485.jpg

From september 2016.




In a universe where those 35% include UK ( big xbox market ), and the rest of the world just doesn't care at all about xbox brand.
I don't know where you are from. I'm from Europe, went the past year in spain, germany or italia, and couldn't find a single xbox game or console in supermarkets. It simply doesn't exist anymore. Moreover compared to PS4 where US is only 30% of their market, and stil ahead in US by a fair margin.
I'm not saying it's a good thing, actually it's pretty sad. It's just a fact.
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Interesting. From what conference is that?
But it's somewhat weird, that the US number is not in line with NPD numbers.
US Xbox One sales before the Xbox One S release were shy of 13 million
 
Acevil

Acevil

Member
Oct 30, 2017
315
I think it is on microsoft to provide concrete numbers, otherwise you have to go on what certain reports that come out that are not that accurate, think one of those reports usually come out the end of this month. I personally think it is within the 40-45 million myself.
 
Benji

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
8,114
I mean Xbox One is still going to sell over 50m LT. It's a big drop from the 360 but frankly not a horrible performance all things considered. They did a hell of a job saving what could have been an utter failure

Really the problem is the losses in mainland Europe as the console is still so healthy in its stronghold markets. The collapse in Europe compared to the 360 is where the majority of those missing sales vs the 360 are coming from.

Will be very difficult for MS to get those consumers back on board next gen as Playstation has done such a great job this gen.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Benji said:
Really the problem is the losses in mainland Europe as the console is still so healthy in its stronghold markets. The collapse in Europe compared to the 360 is where the majority of those missing sales vs the 360 are coming from.
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At the end of the generation the gulf between XB360 total sales and XBO total sales in US will be pretty large (several millions).
Launch aligned XBO will enter with 2019 the time period when XB360 peaked in US (with some notably high yearly sales).

I expect XBO to decline YoY in 2019 but maybe Microsoft will prove me wrong even this year.
 
Benji

Benji

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Celine said:
At the end of the generation the gulf between XB360 total sales and XBO total sales in US will be pretty large (several millions).
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No doubt, I'm not saying all the losses come from Europe. It's going to be down in the US as well. I'm just saying the largest chunk of those lost 360 consumers is coming from mainland Europe

Xbox One is actually performing really strongly in the US. Down from 360 but compared to most consoles in the US historically still very healthy
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
I wonder if we finally get holiday PR from NoA this week. Potentially lots to talk about I would think?

-Any Dec figure over 1.9M would lock in best NPD Calendar Year of the generation for HW
-About 2.15M would put it at 6M for the CY, first to hit that figure in quite some time
-If it really went over 2M for the month, that's the highest MSRP for any 2M month, so huge HW revenue figures
-Smash basically took the 1st month exclusive record with digital included, and very likely did so with physical sales as well
-MK8D spitting hot fire - ahead of CY 2017 sales in all likelihood
-LGPE pacing ahead of SMO from last year despite ~3 less weeks on the market
-Old and new evergreens trucking along in the pre-holiday weeks
-Given all of that, their holiday software revenue must be approaching 08/09 levels
-SMO and BOTW should be approaching all-time highs for their respective franchises in the US
 
Benji

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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m051293 said:
I wonder if we finally get holiday PR from NoA this week. Potentially lots to talk about I would think?

-Any Dec figure over 1.9M would lock in best NPD Calendar Year of the generation for HW
-About 2.15M would put it at 6M for the CY, first to hit that figure in quite some time
-If it really went over 2M for the month, that's the highest MSRP for any 2M month, so huge HW revenue figures
-Smash basically took the 1st month exclusive record with digital included, and very likely did so with physical sales as well
-MK8D spitting hot fire - ahead of CY 2017 sales in all likelihood
-LGPE pacing ahead of SMO from last year despite ~3 less weeks on the market
-Old and new evergreens trucking along in the pre-holiday weeks
-Given all of that, their holiday software revenue must be approaching 08/09 levels
-SMO and BOTW should be approaching all-time highs for their respective franchises in the US
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Yeah I'd be genuinely shocked if they dont release PR. They have so many headlines they can push out there

But who knows
 

Deleted member 49804

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Elvin Atombender said:
13 million sold in stores, 14 million shipped?
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I can't speak for it. I don't know what conference that is, where the number is probably coming from, etc.
End of July 2016 Xbox One units sold in the US were actually closer to 12.5 million than 13 million. You don't have 1.5m inventory in the US alone during the summer drought.

WW Ps4 inventory is around 1.5m in the holidays. And hat console is moving at double the pace. The more you sell, the more inventory you need in channels.
p2kdYMy.png

And even if this was shown at an official Microsoft conference the number does not have to be officially form Microsoft. If the speaker want's to make a point, they get their figures somewhere.

As i said. I can't speak for it.
 
bombshell

bombshell

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Oct 27, 2017
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KennyX said:
I can't speak for it. I don't know what conference that is, where the number is probably coming from, etc.
End of July 2016 Xbox One units sold in the US were actually closer to 12.5 million than 13 million. You don't have 1.5m inventory in the US alone during the summer drought.
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The image is allegedly from some time in September 2016 and assuming it's a number from Microsoft themselves it would have at least a month of One S sales included, which had a good launch so would have boosted both the shipped and sell through numbers from the end of July number that you referred to.
 
jroc74

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
28,992
bombshell said:
One thing is for sure. If retailers are only buying 1 million of unsold stock of the popular console, they aren't buying 4 million of the less popular one 5 years into a generation.



That's part of the problem. You're now saying "maybe 46", but you clearly want the 50m that you also presented long ago in the September predictions thread to be true.



So with (most of before someone screams "but MEXICO") the big Xbox markets accounted for in your tally, where exactly do you want your missing 10m (14m in reality) to come from?
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This is a good question.

It cant be a single region in favor of XBO, like Japan, where PS4 is 7.7 million vs 100, 000 XBO. That one place is a massive difference in favor of PS4. Overall PS4 is at 91 million, I guess the logic is XBO must be half, 45 million.

I really wish MS would give the official numbers. Or somebody.
 
bombshell

bombshell

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jroc74 said:
This is a good question.

It cant be a single region in favor of XBO, like Japan, where PS4 is 7.7 million vs 100, 000 XBO. That one place is a massive difference in favor of PS4. Overall PS4 is at 91 million, I guess the logic is XBO must be half, 45 million.

I really wish MS would give the official numbers. Or somebody.
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45 million is stretching it, we can see that in a region tally like above, there is a lack of big Xbox markets to take it that far.

~42 million end of 2018 is much more likely and would fit with expected yearly Xbox One sales from the 35m end of 2017 that Zhuge estimated, but yeah an official number from Microsoft would clear up everything :D
 

Deleted member 49804

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bombshell said:
The image is allegedly from some time in September 2016 and assuming it's a number from Microsoft themselves it would have at least a month of One S sales included, which had a good launch so would have boosted both the shipped and sell through numbers from the end of July number that you referred to.
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That would be 275k additional sales in the US.
Still below 13 million at around 12.8 million
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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At the end of it, Xbox One will be ~10M behind the 360 in the US.

I estimate 360 ended at ~88M shipped, so by now that is pretty much sold through. Subtract US sales of 43.2M and that leaves ~44.8M ROTW sales. (That's an estimated ~49%:~51%).

If Xbox One hits 50M WW with ~30M in the US, that leaves ~20M ROTW. Or a drop of ~20M units compared to the ~10M lost in the US. In terms of percentage, the US drop would be ~30% and the ROTW is a massive ~55%.

Microsoft NEEDS to invest outside of the US next gen. I think it's expected Scarlett will sell at least 30M in the US. That seems to be the floor for Xbox.

The only consoles that hit 30M in the US have been the following

PS1 (5th Gen) - Market leader
PS2 (6th Gen) - Market leader
Wii (7th Gen) - Overall Market leader
Xbox 360 (7th Gen) - Market leader of HD consoles, overall in the end
* PS4 (8th Gen) - Market leader
* Xbox One (8th Gen)

*Expected to hit

The fact Microsoft can expect market leader type sales out of their recent consoles should honestly mean they focus on markets outside of the US. Those need to grow.
 
Heropon_

Heropon_

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Oct 31, 2017
342
KennyX said:
I can't speak for it. I don't know what conference that is, where the number is probably coming from, etc.
End of July 2016 Xbox One units sold in the US were actually closer to 12.5 million than 13 million. You don't have 1.5m inventory in the US alone during the summer drought.

WW Ps4 inventory is around 1.5m in the holidays. And hat console is moving at double the pace. The more you sell, the more inventory you need in channels.
p2kdYMy.png

And even if this was shown at an official Microsoft conference the number does not have to be officially form Microsoft. If the speaker want's to make a point, they get their figures somewhere.

As i said. I can't speak for it.
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I don't understand how can Shipped number be inferior to Sold Through ?

Edit : Thanks for the explanation.
 
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Zedark

Zedark

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Oct 25, 2017
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Heropon. said:
I don't understand how can Shipped number be inferior to Sold Through ?
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The sold-through is linearly interpolated from a previous data point to the one we got recently. Due to this linear interpolation, it happens that the sold-through line is slightly above the shipped number. The important thing is that the intermediate space is not a data point, only the dots are. By the time we get shipment data for the end of the year, you will see that shipped will be above sold-through. The person who made the graph didn't use any sell-through data from later than the end of 2017, which means that the straight line approximates all quarters between then and now as selling equal amounts of units. That's where the issue you see comes from: clearly the holiday quarter of 2018 has the biggest share of total sales between January 1st 2018 and December 31st 2018, but the graph does not take that into account due to the interpolation.
 
bombshell

bombshell

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Heropon. said:
I don't understand how can Shipped number be inferior to Sold Through ?
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Is it the last part of the graph that confuses you? There's a big gap in time between the last two sold through data points, so when you connect them in a linear line it can look like it's ahead of shipped at points in between. Shipped is always above sold through if you look at points in time that are close to a data point for sold through.

The graph is missing a sold through data point in the last part, though. That would lessen the confusing crossover at the end.
81.2 million sold through as of July 22, 2018
 

Deleted member 49804

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Heropon. said:
I don't understand how can Shipped number be inferior to Sold Through ?

Edit : Thanks for the explanation.
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bombshell said:
Is it the last part of the graph that confuses you? There's a big gap in time between the last two sold through data points, so when you connect them in a linear line it can look like it's ahead of shipped at points in between. Shipped is always above sold through if you look at points in time that are close to a data point for sold through.

The graph is missing a sold through data point in the last part, though. That would lessen the confusing crossover at the end.
81.2 million sold through as of July 22, 2018
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Thanks for pointing the missing data point out.
This looks now a lot better:

53fvPD7.png
 
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ccieag

ccieag

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Oct 28, 2017
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MS went away from raw numbers because they are losing by more than 2:1, which are numbers from years ago. Furthermore, the gap has expanded by all the hints from insiders. They have done a good job keeping from becoming obsolete with gamepass and such, and have done a good job turning things around in the US this past year. Expect that they will soon make the jump to next gen in order to try and get ahead of Sony. Agree they need to focus outside of the US, because growth in US is limited

Nintendo has come back from the Wii U disaster most admirably. It looks likely they will make their 20M forecast for year two. With their lineup year three, expect to pass XBO Worldwide. Not in the US though. Dec looks to sell more than competition combined, which is quite the feat.

PS4 dominant on level not seen since PS2, and continues to surprise with very strong sales despite age. Could see Sony try to milk it another year, which would give MS a head start on "next gen".
 
Sonicfan059

Sonicfan059

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Mar 4, 2018
3,024
Welfare said:
At the end of it, Xbox One will be ~10M behind the 360 in the US.

I estimate 360 ended at ~88M shipped, so by now that is pretty much sold through. Subtract US sales of 43.2M and that leaves ~44.8M ROTW sales. (That's an estimated ~49%:~51%).

If Xbox One hits 50M WW with ~30M in the US, that leaves ~20M ROTW. Or a drop of ~20M units compared to the ~10M lost in the US. In terms of percentage, the US drop would be ~30% and the ROTW is a massive ~55%.

Microsoft NEEDS to invest outside of the US next gen. I think it's expected Scarlett will sell at least 30M in the US. That seems to be the floor for Xbox.

The only consoles that hit 30M in the US have been the following

PS1 (5th Gen) - Market leader
PS2 (6th Gen) - Market leader
Wii (7th Gen) - Overall Market leader
Xbox 360 (7th Gen) - Market leader of HD consoles, overall in the end
* PS4 (8th Gen) - Market leader
* Xbox One (8th Gen)

*Expected to hit

The fact Microsoft can expect market leader type sales out of their recent consoles should honestly mean they focus on markets outside of the US. Those need to grow.
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I don't know how Xbox does so well in the US. It's short of amazing. It had the disastrous launch but that didn't really effect it here and every year the console has gotten worse and worse in terms of exclusive content. The whole "Best line up in Xbox history" from 2015 was even laughed at by hardcore fans. If PS4 had the same quantity and quality of output they wouldn't be close to where they are now.
 

m051293

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Oct 29, 2017
1,658
MatPiscatella said:


Vote you cowards.
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Per memory, COD was ahead of RDR2 through November. My expectation is that XBO outsold PS4 in December and that COD general attach rate on XBO is stronger than RDR2 attach rate on XBO, so COD should have kept its lead.

If its single SKU though, I expect this to be the order:

Smash (NSW)
RDR2 (PS4)
BLOPS4 (PS4)
BLOPS4 (XBO)
RDR2 (XBO)

EDIT: Thought that said 2018, not DEC 2018 haha. It's Smash.
 
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