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December 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 15th

Welfare

Welfare

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Limabean01 said:
Interesting. I have switch easily taking the later/most months of the year, but I feel like ps4 still has a lot of compelling software these first few months, and we will notice it's downward spiral much more in the second half of the year (and vice versa w switch since I expect Ac + Pokémon in half 2). Maybe I'm overestimating ps4.
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There's really not many potential console moving software this Q1 compared to Fortnite last year. Anthem and The Division 2 are the only massive games in Q1 and Division 1 didn't have an impact on hardware in March 2016, while Anthem is an unknown. And let's not mention 2019 having no God of War tier game in Q2. Also the fact that PS4 is going to start naturally being down YOY as it is past its peak selling period and has stayed at $299 since September 2016. The Switch has plenty of room to be up YOY since it's still early in the life cycle.

Switch really only needs to be marginally up each month for most of the year and it should outsell PS4 in 2019.
 

shark97

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Welfare said:
I'd have to wait for NPD but worldwide sales for XB1 2018 should be ~7M or higher.

It's over 40M now and will have a final LTD of over 50M.
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IMO Era always lowballs Xbox in the absence of hard numbers...

Last gen Xbox consistently shipped WW about double USA sales. There is no hard evidence otherwise this gen (in fact PS has hewn very close to the 3.2:1 USA:WW ratio it had last gen, suggesting these dont change much)By that metric Xbox is at 50 million now (shipped to retail, not sold though), and should hit 60, probably at least 70 million lifetime.

I mean PS just announced 91 million right? What are there USA sales, without even knowing, I can guess somewhere in the range of 30m right?

Guess what, that's almost the exact same US: WW ratio they had in the PS3 gen. About 3-3.2:1.
 
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srtrestre

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The Last Laugh

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OrbitalBeard said:
Switch should probably take January.

February and March should be interesting though. After Mario Deluxe (which released today) It doesn't look like a major Switch title will launch before Yoshi on March 29th, so I'm not too confident those two months are a lock for Nintendo.
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Doesn't January have Kingdom Hearts III and Resident Evil 2 and including a KH3 bundle?
 
Welfare

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shark97 said:
IMO Era always lowballs Xbox in the absence of hard numbers...

Last gen Xbox consistently shipped WW about double USA sales. There is no hard evidence otherwise this gen (in fact PS has hewn very close to the 3.2:1 USA:WW ratio it had last gen, suggesting these dont change much)By that metric Xbox is at 50 million now (shipped to retail, not sold though), and should hit 60, probably at least 70 million lifetime.
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Xbox One is not at 50:50. Plenty of evidence to suggest that it fluctuates anywhere from ~55:~45 to ~60:~40 over the years.

In certain countries, Xbox One performs pretty well. Everywhere else has seen a noticeable decline in sales proportionally to the US.

It would be cool and awesome if total sales outside the US actually matched US sales for Xbox One, but they don't.

And trust me, back on GAF early on in the gen, I would constantly argue in favor of higher Xbox One sales than what would be suggested. Today though? Plenty of data pointing to where Xbox stands.
 

Wander_

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shark97 said:
IMO Era always lowballs Xbox in the absence of hard numbers...

Last gen Xbox consistently shipped WW about double USA sales. There is no hard evidence otherwise this gen (in fact PS has hewn very close to the 3.2:1 USA:WW ratio it had last gen, suggesting these dont change much)By that metric Xbox is at 50 million now (shipped to retail, not sold though), and should hit 60, probably at least 70 million lifetime.

I mean PS just announced 91 million right? What are there USA sales, without even knowing, I can guess somewhere in the range of 30m right?

Guess what, that's almost the exact same US: WW ratio they had in the PS3 gen. About 3-3.2:1.
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software charts. xbox games do really bad in europe outside of the uk.
 
Benji

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Xbox One does better than many people realize. Its going to finish over 50 million LT which is respectable. Its a huge collapse from the Xbox 360 and frankly overall was a huge misstep for the brand. But at the same time this isn't a Wii U situation for example where it was quite literally a disaster, the Xbox One at the end of the day will be a highly profitable platform.

Its strongholds are really the US, UK, and Mexico. Mainland Europe and Asia its DOA
 
Mington

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Benji said:
Xbox One does better than many people realize. Its going to finish over 50 million LT which is respectable. Its a huge collapse from the Xbox 360 and frankly overall was a huge misstep for the brand. But at the same time this isn't a Wii U situation for example where it was quite literally a disaster, the Xbox One at the end of the day will be a highly profitable platform.

Its strongholds are really the US, UK, and Mexico. Mainland Europe and Asia its DOA
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Reclaiming the 30m users back will be priority no 1 for Phil.
 
Limabean01

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Welfare said:
There's really not many potential console moving software this Q1 compared to Fortnite last year. Anthem and The Division 2 are the only massive games in Q1 and Division 1 didn't have an impact on hardware in March 2016, while Anthem is an unknown. And let's not mention 2019 having no God of War tier game in Q2. Also the fact that PS4 is going to start naturally being down YOY as it is past its peak selling period and has stayed at $299 since September 2016. The Switch has plenty of room to be up YOY since it's still early in the life cycle.

Switch really only needs to be marginally up each month for most of the year and it should outsell PS4 in 2019.
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I think I'm expecting KH3, resident evil and Anthem to do really well and push a few systems during january and February. Though you have convinced me switch will sell more those months, I think at least for quarter one PS4 will hold quite well. God of war month not included.
 
Limabean01

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You know what. Since it's the last month this year and I've already totally screwed my ranking this year by only participating in 4 months. I'm gonna go edit my post and put switch above 3 million, Xbox above 1.4 million, and PS4 below 650k :)
 
pixelation

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Why are people down balling the PS4 so much?, beneath the XBO even?

And if the Switch takes December, will that be enough to close the gap and overlap the PS4 which according to last month's NPD was the year's top selling hardware up to that point?
 
TheRulingRing

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shark97 said:
IMO Era always lowballs Xbox in the absence of hard numbers...

Last gen Xbox consistently shipped WW about double USA sales. There is no hard evidence otherwise this gen (in fact PS has hewn very close to the 3.2:1 USA:WW ratio it had last gen, suggesting these dont change much)By that metric Xbox is at 50 million now (shipped to retail, not sold though), and should hit 60, probably at least 70 million lifetime.

I mean PS just announced 91 million right? What are there USA sales, without even knowing, I can guess somewhere in the range of 30m right?

Guess what, that's almost the exact same US: WW ratio they had in the PS3 gen. About 3-3.2:1.
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Xbox is nowhere near 50 million at the moment. It was in the upper 30s worldwide around the middle of last year (according to hints from zhuge iirc).
 
Limabean01

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pixelation said:
Why are people down balling the PS4 so much?, beneath the XBO even?

And if the Switch takes December, will that be enough to close the gap and overlap the PS4 which according to last month's NPD was the year's top selling hardware up to that point?
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Our trustworthy insiders benji and deader have said as much regarding PS4. It makes sense: PS4 had zero deals in December; Xbox had many. Even last year, when the PS4 did have deals, Xbox beat it in December.

And yes, easily. Would take a massive surprise for switch to not end up the best selling console of 2018 considering its projected to sell 1 million + more than ps4 this month.
 

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Welfare said:
I'm thinking Switch takes pretty much every month this year easily. Should be up by a decent bit for some months (not even factoring in a potential new model) while PS4 drops YOY pretty much every month.

I'll be more surprised if Switch gets outsold during any month this year than if it sold the most every month.

As for Xbox One, the only January that had good sales was 2018. Every other January it sold terribly. Absolutely no deals after what they had in December, this month won't look good at all compared to 2018.
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Normal months, yes.
But there could still be high profile exclusives being released on Ps4 / Xbox One or even a new hardware refresh.
So one month going to another console is not out of possibility.
Also November!

But Switch will "win" the vast majority of months.
 
pixelation

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Limabean01 said:
Our trustworthy insiders benji and deader have said as much regarding PS4. It makes sense: PS4 had zero deals in December; Xbox had many. Even last year, when the PS4 did have deals, Xbox beat it in December.

And yes, easily. Would take a massive surprise for switch to not end up the best selling console of 2018 considering its projected to sell 1 million + more than ps4 this month.
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Oh, well that makes sense!
 
Welfare

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KennyX said:
Normal months, yes.
But there could still be high profile exclusives being released on Ps4 / Xbox One or even a new hardware refresh.
So one month going to another console is not out of possibility.
Also November!

But Switch will "win" the vast majority of months.
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Switch is expected to have a new model launch this year. If no console has outsold Switch before that month, they will not get another opportunity again. Switch will probably be #1 until PS5 and Scarlett launch.

The only potential massive exclusive PS4 has left is TLOU2 and that is most likely in 2020.

And November is going to easily be a Switch win. Switch was already super close to beating the PS4 this November, and that was with a Pokemon remake and only a bundle on Black Friday. November 2019 is going to have Pokemon Gen 8 and a cheaper price since that will be its third holiday. PS4 will be down YOY.
 
Lwill

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pixelation said:
Why are people down balling the PS4 so much?, beneath the XBO even?

And if the Switch takes December, will that be enough to close the gap and overlap the PS4 which according to last month's NPD was the year's top selling hardware up to that point?
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Benji and Deader hinted as much. The numbers from Sony's own PR about the holidays also implies that the sales in the US in December was under 1 million.

It should be noted that it was still a very successful year for the PS4. It just didn't have the promotions that Microsoft had or a new game that will likely have the highest launch month in US history in December like Nintendo had.
 

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Lwill said:
Hello Mat,

When you made your (potentially accurate) prediction that Switch will be the top selling game system of the year in the US, did you have a thought on how close or far they will be between it and the PS4?
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Always thought it'd be pretty close. I didn't expect all 3 to be as strong as they ended up being. Xbox One in particular really over performed my expectations.

Funny thing is I do a publisher and retailer tour between Feb and April that takes me everywhere and I'll have to fess up on how I downballed all 3 platforms this year, no matter who ends as the years market leader.
 
gundamkyoukai

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MatPiscatella said:
Always thought it'd be pretty close. I didn't expect all 3 to be as strong as they ended up being. Xbox One in particular really over performed my expectations.

Funny thing is I do a publisher and retailer tour between Feb and April that takes me everywhere and I'll have to fess up on how I downballed all 3 platforms this year, no matter who ends as the years market leader.
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Well it won't be that close with PS4 sitting out Dec .
Switch should have at least 500k on it .
Truth is i expected Sony to have it's best year or second year in 2018 in unit sales but Sony had other ideas in mind (profit )
 
Lwill

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MatPiscatella said:
Always thought it'd be pretty close. I didn't expect all 3 to be as strong as they ended up being. Xbox One in particular really over performed my expectations.

Funny thing is I do a publisher and retailer tour between Feb and April that takes me everywhere and I'll have to fess up on how I downballed all 3 platforms this year, no matter who ends as the years market leader.
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Thanks for clarifying. I didn't think you underestimated even the Switch.

One big surprise for me was the XB1. It was third overall, but it was able to maintain sale numbers not too far behind the other systems. I wonder how thing will pan out for them in the next couple of years.
 
bombshell

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shark97 said:
IMO Era always lowballs Xbox in the absence of hard numbers...

Last gen Xbox consistently shipped WW about double USA sales. There is no hard evidence otherwise this gen (in fact PS has hewn very close to the 3.2:1 USA:WW ratio it had last gen, suggesting these dont change much)By that metric Xbox is at 50 million now (shipped to retail, not sold though), and should hit 60, probably at least 70 million lifetime.

I mean PS just announced 91 million right? What are there USA sales, without even knowing, I can guess somewhere in the range of 30m right?

Guess what, that's almost the exact same US: WW ratio they had in the PS3 gen. About 3-3.2:1.
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You are still on this fairytale line of thinking? lol
Xbox One is performing WAY worse in continental Europe than Xbox 360 did. We have data from a bunch of EU countries showing that, so you can stick your fingers in your ears as much as you want with your "there is no evidence to suggest a change in us:ww ratio" claim that you have stuck to before. I don't have 360 data from Japan on hand, but I'm also fairly sure it did much more there than the meager 100k that Xbox One has crawled its way to so far in that territory. That's while Xbox One is performing pretty much on pace with 360 in the US, so why you want to paint Era as lowballing Xbox One worldwide beats me. It's quite clearly you who are highballing it on your own going up against all industry analyst estimations being ~35m end of 2017 and therefore just crossed 40m end of 2018.

For PS4 that is performing better in US than PS3, it's also performing better in EU and emergent markets like the Middle East, so here the ratio can easily be explained as being similar to last gen.
 
ccieag

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Actually, the numbers for Xbox are pretty damned good since they mostly come from the US - not much of a presence elsewhere except UK. They will probably be lapped by Nintendo next year, which at this point seems inevitable, as the Switch will be have more than 35M after two years on the market. Sony just had to hold serve in the US, but actually won there, which is why this generation isn't much of a contest sales-wise. MS simply needs to regroup for next generation ...
 
Zedark

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*Guaraná said:
Why are you guys betting at over 2kk for Switch? Isnt that way too optimistic?
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2M was the conservative prediction that Benji put out. He said that his data, if extrapolated in the normal way, would indicate numbers way over 2 million, but he was going to be conservative and say his sample represents a larger portion of the market than normal, and even then he said 2M seems highly probable.

So, 2M is the lower end of predictions. If you go with Benji's sample not being unusually represented in the market, then you arrive at the order of 2.5 million units.
 
Revolsin

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*Guaraná said:
Why are you guys betting at over 2kk for Switch? Isnt that way too optimistic?
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December of 2017 Switch was at 1.5mill with only the niche XC2 as a December title and no notable November title.

December of 2018 Switch had Smash Bros, and in November it had Pokemon.

2 mill is a conservative estimate.
 
Benji

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ccieag said:
Xbox still has a presence in the US. Nowhere else though, so it's WW numbers are basically the US
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Nah. US is by far its strongest market but it does very well in the UK and Mexico as well. People underestimate how strong Xbox is in Mexico tbh

That said yeah continental Europe and Asia are mostly a dead zone for them now
 
HeroR

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Revolsin said:
December of 2017 Switch was at 1.5mill with only the niche XC2 as a December title and no notable November title.

December of 2018 Switch had Smash Bros, and in November it had Pokemon.

2 mill is a conservative estimate.
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I wouldn't call a series that sells over a million worldwide 'niche'. While Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is the best selling in the series, Xenoblade Chronicles X sold over a million worldwide on the Wii U. That said, Smash and Pokemon are bigger games.
 
Benji

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The difference in scale between what Smash Bros impact is compared to XB2 or ANY other Switch title released so far cannot be overstated. Again, buckle up December numbers are gonna be fun

Btw what did New Super Mario Bros U launch at again?
 
Chris1964

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HeroR said:
I wouldn't call a series that sells over a million worldwide 'niche'. While Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is the best selling in the series, Xenoblade Chronicles X sold over a million worldwide on the Wii U. That said, Smash and Pokemon are bigger games.
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The only Xenoblade that topped 1m is 2.
 

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