Why are you so hung up on the idea that I'm secretly the neutral,
Gorlak ? It's like you have the pieces of a puzzle but are trying to jam a square peg into a round hole. It won't fit no matter how hard you try, and if you keep doing it, the puzzle is just gonna break. Let's proceed under the assumption that I'm not the neutral. Three scum and one neutral remaining.
Player list!
-Me
-Fran
-malus
-fat4all
-Kalor
-Vincent Alexander
-Kopite
-Meatwad
-Dr. Monkey
-Fandorin
-Gorlak
That's 11 players left. Now, take me out of the equation. Under this assumption, I'm confirmed town. (I'm not, but that's why it's an assumption.) That means, 10 players. Three of them are scum, one of them is a neutral. That's a solid four out of ten not-necessarily-pro-town players. Almost half. This also means that a little under 1/3rd of the currently active players are de facto scum.
Best scenario for town today is we lynch a Scum and Scum night kills the Neutral so the Neutral won't be able to fill whatever win condition they may have. It'll be D4 Tomorrow, so it is indeed late enough to worry about that. Semi-okay case scenario for the whole game is we lynch Town but Scum still nk's the Neutral. Worse case for everyone but scum is two town are killed and we're that much closer to mylo.
Under the assumption that I'm not lying (roll with it), Gorlak isn't the Neutral. He could still be scum, but that clears up the board a little. The possible-neutral pile of players is 9, but the possible-scum pile of players is still 10.
Out of the ten players, we have one role claim by Monkey; a spirit talker. The rest of the players are basically concealing their roles. This means that, on D3, whatever town cop we've got, if we've even got a town cop, isn't comfortable laying down the green checks to narrow the list of potential scum. For whatever reason.
If we continue to fail tonight and we lynch a town+scum nk's a town, that puts the potential anti-town pile to 4/8. Those aren't exactly good odds for town. D5 would be a 1/2 chance of hitting Scum but our footing would be much more perilous in the endgame than if we were to lynch scum both Tonight and Tomorrow.
We had a lot of claims Yesterday, but the drought of information to work on at this point I think is strangling us. The only way we can win is if we solve the game, otherwise we use a lynch and have a... 1/3.333333-ish???? chance of hitting scum. I can't help but feel like we're being a little bamboozled by scum players right now, and not having got one on D1 or D2 is pretty disheartening.
I'm not really going anywhere with any of this, I'm just laying it out to try to make sense of it all.
I explained it before but I'll re-state it anyway because I'm nice like that sometimes. I targeted Gorlak because I felt like it was possible that, in the case of Gorlak being the Neutral, he might have been smart enough to fake being targeted by himself on the first Night in order to bait players into reacting favourably. It's not exactly a far fetched strategy, but I guess not everyone is outside-of-the-box as I am in terms of potential Mafia strategies, ahaha.
