• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

Coronavirus Discussion Thread (See Staff Post) [UPDATE: WHO declares global emergency. See threadmarks]

Status
Not open for further replies.
Reader mode
Cyanity

Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,345
Drewton said:
The virus's ability to spread is getting stronger = the numbers have been inaccurate.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Either that or the virus is undergoing a mutation process to become more contagious, which is pretty common for most viruses as they spread throughout a population. They usually mutate to become less deadly as well, so hopefully that's what's happening.
 
Datajoy

Datajoy

use of an alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
12,081
Angola / Zaire border region.
Slightly nervous as I flew back and forth to Guangzhou in mid January and stayed for five days including a tour of a major hospital.

Oh yeah and now there is a confirmed case in my back yard ha ha
 
Nivash

Nivash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,467
ChippyTurtle said:
Why?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Because viruses don't work like a game of plague inc. They don't typically start to change their characteristics during an active outbreak in that way, what you start off with is normally what you end up with. I suspect the quote is a mistranslation that's referring to it spreading faster and being more contagious than was initially hoped rather than the virus becoming more contagious over time.

People also shouldn't get hung up on the statement that nCoV may be infectious before symptoms manifest. That can be true for some viruses - like the common cold - but not for most. The flu is only infectious during the symptomatic period, for instance.

nCoV is a respiratory virus that resembles SARS and MERS more than something like the cold so a good bet is on it having similar transmission routes. That means droplet transmission and direct contact as the most likely forms of transmission, in which case it's unlikely to be particularly infectious to the general public in the incubation period.

Cyanity said:
Either that or the virus is undergoing a mutation process to become more contagious, which is pretty common for most viruses as they spread throughout a population. They usually mutate to become less deadly as well, so hopefully that's what's happening.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

That's more of a general statement that's true over time and billions of infections, though, not something that's really a factor in the early stages of an outbreak with just a few thousand cases. It explains why we need to develop new vaccines for influenza every year because the virus changes, but it doesn't dramatically change the clinical characteristics of the flu.

EDIT: early sequences also suggests a high level of genetic conservation between strains, indicating a low level of change since the debut in november and december last year.

 
Last edited:
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
It hasn't even been shown to be deadly in developed countries and everywhere other than China is responding in methodical fashion. If you're outside of China and buying masks to protect your from this one virus you're missing the forest for the trees.
 
Excuse me

Excuse me

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,027
mo60 said:
It's a slightly worse version of the flu so far. It has mostly killed people with weak immune systems.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
 
Last edited:
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
Zabo said:
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

It would be prudent to wait and see the mortality rate of it in a country that doesn't bungle the response. The mortality rate of Ebola in Africa is astronomical but none of the American healthcare workers/volunteers who contracted it and were treated in the US died.
 
mo60

mo60

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,198
Edmonton, Alberta
Zabo said:
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah. The virus can definitely be deadly. We will know how deadly it is as more and more cases pop up around the world in the next few weeks or so.
 
Excuse me

Excuse me

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,027
konka said:
It would be prudent to wait and see the mortality rate of it in a country that doesn't bungle the response. The mortality rate of Ebola in Africa is astronomical but none of the American healthcare workers/volunteers who contracted it and were treated in the US died.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah, it probably won't kill people outside of china long as there isn't wide spread contagion like in china. With terrible luck some older folk will get it and are at high risk but beyond that, I think it will be much like the case of SARS was outside of China.

edit. outside of china = EU/US/Japan/etc. We have countries that might not have the capacity deal with even small outbreak.
 

Lishi

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,284
Zabo said:
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The current mortality rate cannot be accurate.

1) It makes sense that currently, the confirmed cases are the most serious one. with the hospitals swamped who knows how many are cases are not confirmed because they are less serious.
2) The confirmed cases are not yet out of danger, so until they are dismissed you cannot really consider them in the mortality rate.

There is just not enough data.
 
TojoT

TojoT

Member
Oct 30, 2017
316
Zabo said:
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

You can't compare overall mortality rate with hospitalised mortality rate. The mortality rate for people that was hospitalised with the influenza in the US in 2018-2019 was 7% (based on CDC estimates).
 
konka

konka

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,856
Kormora

Kormora

Member
Nov 7, 2017
1,418
M_Night said:
BBC covering that it infectious during incubation.


I live and work in Cambridge which has tons and tons of big Chinese tours everyday so I'm very worried.

WHO need to declare an emergency already.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Most of those who died in the initial outbreak were older people with pre-existing conditions. But Minister Ma also said that since it was a new virus, there could be changes in the coming days and weeks, and the danger it poses to different age groups could also change.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

That's creepy
 

jey_16

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,330
Considering the amount of people movement that went on before the quarantine, I hope foreign countries are screening anyone who is coming from any where in China, not just Wuhan, the risk is too great
 
AshenOne

AshenOne

Member
Feb 21, 2018
6,236
Pakistan
Coronavirus: China has cured first patient since outbreak

SHANGHAI: The Shanghai Municipal Health Commission has claimed that the first patient since the beginning of the deadly outbreak has been cured and discharged from hospital.

A 56-year-old woman locally identified as "Chen" was said to have been cured from the illness.


Chen demonstrated significant improvements in her respiratory system following pulmonary CT scans and two independent blood tests found the patient free from the Coronavirus, as reported on Sunday (Jan 26) by the state-owned Beijing Daily Newspaper.

The patient was reportedly released from quarantine after further examinations to prevent the spread of infections.

Chen was a resident of Wuhan–the city where the Coronavirus originated–for several years, according to RT.

She reportedly felt flu-like symptoms on January 10 before being admitted to hospital on Jan12.

After nearly two weeks under medical care, she has now been released, cured from the disease, it has been claimed.

The Express also published claims from Chinese doctors indicating that trial runs with an HIV wonder drug have "somewhat successfully" stopped the spread of the disease to cells.

The study concluded that "Nelfinavir could decrease the production of virus from cells".

Since the intercontinental spread of the disease–which has now claimed 56 lives and has infected hundreds of others and more than35 million people are currently on lock down and five entire cities are quarantined.

In Wuhan, local authorities have hemorrhaged funds in order to counter the deadly virus.

Emergency facilities are currently being built in the city to cater for the demand from sick patients. A full fledged hospital just for the coronavirus patients will be ready by next week.

It was also reported that a 46-year-old man has become the first patient in east China's Zhejiang Province to recover from a similar kind of sickness. The man, surnamed Yang, left the hospital on Friday after undergoing treatment for a week.

The patient had been living in Wuhan for a long time. Yang will continue to visit the doctors for regular checkups. - Agencies/China Daily/Asian News Network
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Source: thestar.com.my
 
Ryu

Ryu

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,316
Trice said:
Apparently a busload of tourists from Wuhan entered my country today. They landed in Milan and were screened at the airport and given a green light to continue to Croatia. The driver was given a number to call immediately if anyone looks sick.

Considering the incubation period, I'm not too thrilled with these news. The Chinese are locking down tens of millions of people while we're letting Wuhan residents in. For fuck sake. I don't even wanna think how our utterly incompetent healthcare system and government would deal with a possible outbreak situation.

I'll be picking up a face mask just in case.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Austria reporting in that we may also have our first case in Vienna. Not confirmed though, but apparently she works as a stewardess (from China).

 
NeonCarbon

NeonCarbon

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,462
Only one hospitalised patient has been cured since it began, or is that just Shanghai? That doesn't sound good.
I'm sure outside of hospital others will have recovered....but damnnnn.

jey_16 said:
Considering the amount of people movement that went on before the quarantine, I hope foreign countries are screening anyone who is coming from any where in China, not just Wuhan, the risk is too great
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
If the incubation period is between 3 to 14 days, the temp checks at the airports won't be a great prevention method.
I think the UK are attempting to trace people who've flown recently.
 
DavidDesu

DavidDesu

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
5,718
Glasgow, Scotland
The incubation time is worrying and I'm going to Amsterdam next week. I can only imagine the amount of people who could be carrying the disease but not have symptoms yet flowing through Schipol airport. Hopefully it requires really close physical contact to transmit and so it's not as bad as it could potentially be. Still feel like it could be a ticking time bomb and explode very soon because of the delay.
 
krang

krang

Alt Account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
219
Zabo said:
Dangerous common influenzas have mortality rate around 0,10% so it's much worse then "flu". And seems like reproductive factor is larger then common influenzas. So while it's not the end of the world we shouldn't downplay the effects of the epidemic either.

edit. but it's true that elderly people and people with pre-existing medical conditions are at highest risk.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

The number of people confirmed to have this is going to be far far lower than the actual number, who have likely all recovered.
 
lunlunqq

lunlunqq

Member
Oct 26, 2017
124
Here's a vlog shot by a guy who's in the locked down Wuhan city. He's been volunteering to drive doctors and nurse to work. He recorded some of his conversations with them and had videos of the outside of some of the largest hospitals in Wuhan. Things seems to be much calmer than what the Internet has made it feel like. Take a look.

 
KrangBakesaTurtle

KrangBakesaTurtle

Member
Mar 26, 2018
790
NeonCarbon said:
Only one hospitalised patient has been cured since it began, or is that just Shanghai? That doesn't sound good.
I'm sure outside of hospital others will have recovered....but damnnnn.


If the incubation period is between 3 to 14 days, the temp checks at the airports won't be a great prevention method.
I think the UK are attempting to trace people who've flown recently.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I wouldn't see it as this but this isn't the first time I have heard of them using an HIV drug.
 
Snarfington

Snarfington

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
2,933
Alastor3 said:
I fail to see how an HIV drug could help get rid of a pneumonia from the coronavirus
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Basically, it slows down the virus' replication rate which makes it progress more slowly, so the body has more time for the immune system to develop the ability to fight it off. It's certainly not a cure, but probably a good aid.

disclaimer: of course I am not a scientist so this could be wrong and I'm talking out of my ass, but from my knowledge this is how it works
 
Titik

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
Somna said:
You can't compare overall mortality rate with hospitalised mortality rate. The mortality rate for people that was hospitalised with the influenza in the US in 2018-2019 was 7% (based on CDC estimates).
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Yeah this. That Early 2000 hospitalized figure and 56 dead seems to be in line with that.
 
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Member
Feb 25, 2018
8,597
People still believe in videos posted on twitter from dubious sources in 2020?
Aren't kids born with the internet should know better?
 

TheLittlestHobo

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
223
Titik said:
I don't understand how an antiretroviral can do this to a coronavirus but I guess stranger things have happened. But that site seem dubious.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I can't see how being 'cured' (i.e. recovering) is itself proof that the drug worked. With illnesses like this, surely either you die or you recover, as part of the natural course of the disease?
 
Calamari41

Calamari41

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,128
Pomerlaw said:
People still believe in videos posted on twitter from dubious sources in 2020?
Aren't kids born with the internet should know better?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Yeah, but you have to understand that people are skeptical of the idea that the Chinese government walled off 50 million people because of a handful of deaths.

It leads to people latching on to potentially dubious stories if it helps their minds square the circle. You wouldn't be seeing nearly as much of these conspiracy theories and things if it were almost any other government giving out these figures.
 
Titik

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
Mr. Pointy said:
Well. Shit.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
That's still only 8 people. And most of them have recovered.

Now is the reports come out that they were all bleeding form thier eyes and collapsing randomly. Then yeah, I'll say 'Well Shit' with you.

I'm not saying not to be vigilant but panicking seems to be unwarranted especially with the preliminary mortality rate being comparable to the common flu. Hell even preliminary reports are saying that those that are getting sick are the usual vulnerable populations which is another online thing with the flu.
 

Monsterqken

Member
Dec 26, 2019
415
Word on the street in Guilin is mass death, people are pretty hysterical. Can't be easy to live in China and know that you can't trust any information. Good thing is that people are staying away from the streets.
Edit: to clarify not saying there is mass death but that people believe there is.
 
Reader mode
Status
Not open for further replies.