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Oct 27, 2017
45,031
Seattle
Looks like Frozen is going to break some records


Industry estimates see a big swing for Frozen 2, both stateside with $90M-$135M, and $120M-$140M abroad as the Jennifer Lee-Chris Buck directed movie blasts off around the global. While most domestic B.O. prognosticators see Frozen 2 well above $100M, the fact that no animated film has ever delivered an opening that has rivaled the first Frozen's $93.9M five-day take, gives some pause as we're not in June, we're in November. While there's only 1% colleges and K-12 schools out this Friday, holiday breaks begin Monday going respectively to 41% and 14% for both categories, moving to 100% off by Thursday and Friday. Countering any asterisk to Frozen 2's lowball projections is the fact that advance ticket sales for the pic among theater circuits like AMC are posting records for an animated pic, well ahead of Toy Story 4 and Incredibles 2 (again those sales may not all be for this weekend, but over the Thanksgiving stretch). Even if Frozen 2 comes up short, it's in for the long haul over the holiday period. Currently, the sequel is 81% certified fresh to the first 2013's release of 90% certified fresh. In regards to this November's B.O.,Frozen 2 could potentially lead us to a result that's north of $900M, yet much shy of $1 billion.

All in, the average for Frozen 2's global debut comes out to $242.5M. That would rep a new global opening record for an animated film, unseating Disney's Toy Story 4 ($240.9M) and Incredibles 2's $235.8M
 

Quinton

Specialist at TheGamer / Reviewer at RPG Site
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,255
Midgar, With Love
For a second there I missed the part where "global" was specified and thought this was domestic only. I very nearly choked on my tea.
 

cvxfreak

DINO CRISIS SUX
Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
945
Tokyo
I imagine it has a shot at some sort of record now since it's a simultaneous release in Japan. Frozen is the third largest grossing movie ever there (and at 2014 exchange rates made $250m)
 

Grayson

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Aug 21, 2019
1,768
Toy Story 4 was largely unnecessary so not a huge surprise here.
 

Frostinferno

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,495
At first I glossed over the global opening part and thought it was tracking for $240m+ domestic. That would've been wild. $240m global is actually much less impressive. It may not beat the first at this rate.
 

BDS

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
13,845
Deadline thinks it won't hit a billion

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Bumrush

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,770
How would this not hit $1B? There have only been a major INCREASE in popularity since
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Jumanji (and Cats lol) but it feels like interest in that is way down from the last one.
Eh, who knows. The 2017 Jumanji seemed to come out of nowhere, too.

I suspect repeat viewings for Rise of Skywalker will be higher than they were for Last Jedi, but probably not the same level as TFA (a movie that even my mom, who I'd only describe as a casual fan of Star Wars and has told me outright she thinks going to movies multiple times in the theatre is dumb, saw twice). That would create an opening for Jumanji 2 to counter-program, same as last time, but that probably depends on some factors that are uncontrollable.
 

Revali

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
1,394
Rito Village
I wouldn't be so sure that TROS beats Frozen domestically or worldwide. Both will be huge but I feel like many are underestimating how big Frozen is with kids and how much steam it has gained in home sales and merchandise since the original released in theaters. I suspect it ends up closer to the final gross of The Incredibles 2 than the original Frozen.

TROS also has Jumanji 2 to contend with while Frozen II will have several weeks largely to itself.