Could gaming industry be slowly heading towards some kind of crash?

[Dust]

Technically the industry seems healthy, but I feel like recently too many things are happening at once and everyone is chasing some imagined unicorns (mostly the elusive Fortnite audience and people who watch games rather than play them).

Google, Apple and MS going full deck with streaming.
Sony banking on traditional approach (I guess?).
PC might actually turn into console like landscaoe with rival stores and exclusives.
Nintendo doing their own thing for better or worse.

Am I overthinking this? I just have this feeling something bad is looming around, once everything materializes.

 

[TheInfinityGauntlet]

It's not a crash it's a plateau

 

[Javier23]

Nah, we're good.

 

[BlueManifest]

Yes, and Nintendo will be the last one standing again lol

And sega will get back into consoles

 

[TimeFire]

I think the monitization of streaming games could cause this. If every game is paid based on time played, every game will chase that dollar with huge, grindy, endless games. That can't be sustainable.

 

[PowerThroughLov]

Its just healthy competition. I do not see how consumers will be hurt by all of this. Ultimately some will fail, others will succeed.

 

[Platy]

AAA games yes

Industry as a whole no

 

[Lashley]

It's probably overdue

 

[ShinUltramanJ]

Nope. It's booming, but it won't be booming for everyone.

 

[elenarie]

Nah. Everything is fine. :)

 

[Deleted member 5148]

I think we need both traditional and innovative gaming. The moment we choose one or the other we run the risk of loosing it all.

I believe that's what made the PS4 so successful, but I'm not sure tbh.

Netflix killed blockbuster for abvious reasons and no one misses block buster anymore.


I next gen consoles should foster towards physical and continue to push Netflix gaming , and let the consumer decide where to spend their money.

Time will tell.

Lol I just realized I'm just stating a bunch of abvious facts while thinking to myself self im saying something smart.

 

[Bhonar]

not the whole industry

 

[Deleted member 1413]

Might be a shift but no crash.
Maybe Nintendo, Sony, or Xbox drop out with a new comer, maybe a shift to streaming, or maybe we'll stay the same for the next 10 years

 

[JLP101]

Your typical economic crash...no

Many indie developers and companies going out of business... yes (already happening now)

 

[Ryuelli]

The year is 2040, the new console giants are the Kroger Konsole and the McDonald's Monocle.

 

[LordDraven]

Technically the industry seems healthy, but I feel like recently too many things are happening at once and everyone is chasing some imagined unicorns (mostly the elusive Fortnite audience and people who watch games rather than play them).

Google, Apple and MS going full deck with streaming.
Sony banking on traditional approach (I guess?).
PC might actually turn into console like landscaoe with rival stores and exclusives.
Nintendo doing their own thing for better or worse.

Am I overthinking this? I just have this feeling something bad is looming around, once everything materializes.

Click to shrink...

Nope

 

[Kuro]

Streaming will probably be a nice advertisement for local hardware lol. People who normally don't buy consoles will try streaming and enjoy the games but then will hate how limiting it is and the latency and image quality so they'll opt for buying their first console.

 

[Revolsin]

AAA games yes

Industry as a whole no

Click to shrink...

Ye

Budgets continue to rise and rise, base prices for games don't. The risk of failure thus grows larger and larger as we keep progressing.

It only takes a couple of proper high-profile underperforms, akin to Anthem(which despite what the #1 NPD will tell you, is majorly behind expectations and likely didn't recoup costs with how gigantic its marketing budget was), to massively damage a company now.

A lot of big companies are coasting on the fact that most games are quality and recieved well, but the failures will hit hard and fast unless the industry decides to finally stop its deathgrip on pursuing higher and higher fidelity hyper realistic graphics which are inflating budgets massively.

 

[PSqueak]

Not the entire industry, i can see nintendo avoiding a crash and Indies and middle tier devs come unharmed.

Actually, the big 3 pretty much are safe, Sony and Microsoft won't go down as long as they're still backed by their parent companies, basically the only thing crashing will be third party devs who live on AAA games.

 

[Segafreak]

Streaming will probably be a nice advertisement for local hardware lol. People who normally don't buy consoles will try streaming and enjoy the games but then will hate how limiting it is and the latency and image quality so they'll opt for buying their first console.

Click to shrink...

Secret agent Phil reporting to Kaz as we speak

 

[nekkid]

Waaaaay too early to be calling anything like that, OP.

 

[DocSeuss]

People keep asking if we're in for a crash because YouTubers keep saying there will be one, but random angry men online have never understood business that well.

 

[Mobyduck]

Spoiler

On a more serious note, a contingent of the indie dev people are very much worried about what this year has in store for them, believing this is the year things will come crashing down.

 

[DopeyFish]

a big problem in first crash was the companies weren't really all that big. the market was also flooded with crap games.

all this happened before computers were on the market and when games were simple. it isn't facing nearly the same issues today. the issue today is game budgets have gone nuts and depend on multi million sales.

difference is, google and MS are a couple of the most powerful companies on the planet. Sony, while weakened over the last decade is still a very very large company. The only risk is a potential souring of the market on companies. People just need to get out of the AAAA loop

 

[MoonFrog]

A AAA crash feels in-the-making but frankly things could just shift over time there could be unforeseen changes or AAA could just wither away.

 

[CarthOhNoes]

People in the UK will buy a streaming console, realise their Internet is way too shit for it to be a better experience than the £199 console they bought in a Black Friday sale and sell it at CEX within a month.

 

[Lant_War]

Ehh no, it isn't likely. However, I think only a few companies will be able to afford big AAA superproductions, and those will probably be even more formulaic than they're now

 

[PenultimateFantasy]

There's more people playing games than. Ever before and the barrier to entry is getting lower and lower

So , no

 

[PyroPaperPlanes]

Not necessarily a crash, but it does feel like the industry is on the cusp of a significant change.

 

[RationalGinger]

AAA gaming possibly. Gaming as a whole - no.

AAA gaming seeks ever increasing profits from an ever shrinking pool. GaaS causes people to stick with one or two titles, limiting their purchases as such.

 

[eraFROMAN]

No crash, but growth will level off in the AAA space while independent development carries more and more weight. When Nintendo has directs focused solely on indies, you know the value of "smaller" experiences has grown massively.

 

[Taker34]

The year is 2040, the new console giants are the Kroger Konsole and the McDonald's Monocle.

Click to shrink...

An early prototype:

The only way for an industry wide crash would be when people stop spending money on games or microtransactions... which isn't going to happen.

 

[modiz]

It definitely does feel like a bunch of cloud streaming services are going to drop at roughly the same time.
I can see that having negative effects.

 

[Windu]

Google, Apple and MS going full deck with streaming.

Click to shrink...

Apple is not building a game streaming service. They are building a game subscription bundle, all local.

 

[Gakidou]

I don't think the "going down too many avenues at once" is actually a problem. The amount people play games and the different types of games has grown, and sure, that will ease off there's definitely a maximum saturation point, but... mobile and VR sure didn't kill off console gaming. Console gaming didn't even end up killing PC! All those different markets seem to be going fairly strong. Variety seems great to me.

Plus, it shouldn't matter so much to consumers which major console companies, retailers, or publishers come and go. They aren't what defines the games industry.

For me I think I see a crisis developing because of exploitative monetisation/design practices (which will either be criminalised or put gamers off of games), escalation of spending (and expecting bigger returns against the aforementioned saturation problem). I do agree with you on the "unicorn chasing" as well. To put it broadly, many people are looking at games as a way to make big money fast and burn goodwill and developers trying to find that "big minecraft/fortnite/GTA/whatever payout" I think we are seen as a trendy rags-to-riches industry and being gutted by people who couldn't give less of a shit about good games.

I believe Jim Sterling has a valuable perspective on the industry as a whole, even if I don't always agree with his taste in games ;)

 

[Doskoi Panda]

Are you overthinking this?

Yes. Very much so.

 

[7thFloor]

Apple isn't doing a streaming service, PC isn't going to become a console like landscape, and no the industry isn't going to crash.

 

[Dekuman]

Crash was mostly a US thing in 1983 as well though the US was the biggest market and had the biggest names attached so it wasn't nothing like some people sometimes try to pass it off as. It's unlikely there will be an industry wide crash.

 

[SofNascimento]

No, I doubt that.

 

[low-G]

Stuff's always changing, but I feel pretty confident nothing in particular that people like or dislike is going away within the next 4 years. Companies will go out of business, as usual. New companies will be formed.

 

[Deleted member 46922]

No, gaming is not a new thing anymore, it's bigger than Hollywood.

What might happen is that old fashioned gamers like me, who want to play single player games with a beginning and an end have to search a little bit harder between all the GAAS garbage (only garbage imo, not for a lot of other people), but a bigger industry means that there will always be some developers that want to bring such an experience to others, even if it means not getting all the money, but just enough money.

 

[Council Pop]

Technically the industry seems healthy, but I feel like recently too many things are happening at once and everyone is chasing some imagined unicorns (mostly the elusive Fortnite audience and people who watch games rather than play them).

Google, Apple and MS going full deck with streaming.
Sony banking on traditional approach (I guess?).
PC might actually turn into console like landscaoe with rival stores and exclusives.
Nintendo doing their own thing for better or worse.

Am I overthinking this? I just have this feeling something bad is looming around, once everything materializes.

Click to shrink...

Yep, but not for these reasons. There will be an AAA crash because of spiralling development costs and ever bigger budgets, a few large games having a monopoly on the GAAS genre, and the industry's incapability to retain staff due to terrible working conditions.

No, gaming is not a new thing anymore, it's bigger than Hollywood.

Click to shrink...

The idea that gaming is 'too big to fail' is ridiculous.

 

[Deleted member 46922]

The idea that gaming is 'too big to fail' is ridiculous.

Click to shrink...

No, it isn't. Do you see Hollywood failing anytime soon? I'm not saying that because I like the way things are going, I'm being objective.
This industry is not going to crash. (Entertainment and banks are not under the same economic rules, if you're talking about "too big too fail". :) )

 

[TheDarkKnight]

I've been hearing about an impending gaming crash ever since people started talked about gaming online

 

[menacer]

I am just waiting for battle royale games to finally die out to be honest.

 

[Iucidium]

It's not a crash it's a plateau

Click to shrink...

Yup, top of that bell-curve

 

[SpokkX]

I think the monitization of streaming games could cause this. If every game is paid based on time played, every game will chase that dollar with huge, grindy, endless games. That can't be sustainable.

Click to shrink...

This is a REALLY good point

 

[Shalashaska]

I don't know how gaming could possibly crash at this point. The 5 biggest publishers could disappear overnight and there would be someone ready to fill their shoes almost immediately. The market is too varied and gaming is too popular in general these days for it to ever really crash.

The streaming wars will be interesting. There is going to be a lot of competition there in the next few years, and by big new players as well. It will affect traditional consoles but I don't think it's going to kill them anytime soon. I'm not convinced these streaming gaming services are actually going to catch on, at least not until 5g cell networks are readily available.

The PC storefront exclusives thing is going to slow down eventually too. Epic/Tencent isn't going to keep spending big on exclusives forever, and once they stop everything is going to pop up on Steam once again because they still control 90% of the market.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

The industry had one crash almost 40 years ago. People have predicting another one for the last 30. It can contract in some ways, it can go up and down, publishers and devs of all sizes are not immune from going out of business, but there's no particular reason to think something "big is around the corner" any more than the last 30 years of corners.

 

[daninthemix]

Doubt it OP, but I suggest you worry your way to a stomach ulcer just in case.