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LQX

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,871
Yeah. This is what worries with all the unnecessary panic with this one. The Spanish flu in 1918 killed a good 10% of the entire Earth's human population at the time. Whereas this one seems to be a lot less deadly. This constant crying wolf will inevitably lead to many of us starting to tune this out so when the real pandemic hits, many will die because we cried wolf too many times.

Caution needs to happen, of course, but when data starts to show the actual mortality rate then that needs to be emphasized. I'm not seeing it with this one. All I hear about is the constant highlight of a pandemic even from the WHO. You can see it in full display in this very thread.
Playing this down is no better. Some of you keep going on about other diseases that are not even as contagious, now you're highlighting the Spanish flu 1918. How are we even comparing the two in world that is more densely populated and with faster modes of travel. If anything that is highlighting how terrible and world changing this thing might turn out to be.
 

JayRB88

Member
Dec 3, 2019
176
In regards to the RC cruise ship in NJ passengers are saying it was a 12 night cruise so more than likely a positive test result would show up. Testing methods are relatively quick about 30 minutes or so. The passengers in question were not in the Wuhan area. The CDC declared this low risk to the governor. There is probably a lot we don't know in this situation. I feel theybshoukdnhave waited to disembark and allow new passengers on but for all we know test results already came back negative.
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
Playing this down is no better. Some of you keep going on about other diseases that are not even as contagious, now you're highlighting the Spanish flu 1918. How are we even comparing the two in world that is more densely populated and with faster modes of travel. If anything that is highlighting how terrible and world changing this thing might turn out to be.
Because that said world can now also gather and present data earlier. And we have actual preliminary data showing that this isn't as deadly as many of you are fearing.
 

ry-dog

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,180
I'm so sick of people saying "more people die of the seasonal flu", it's more contagious and deadlier. It's far more serious than something our hospitals can predict and prepare for
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
I'm so sick of people saying "more people die of the seasonal flu", yeah well if more people get exposed to corona, it's more contagious and deadlier. It's far more serious than something our hospitals can predict and prepare for
Yes. There should be caution. But when data start to show that this isn't as deadly as the seasonal flu then that should be emphasized instead of the unwarranted panic this is now causing.

Now if it was something deadly like Ebola then go ahead and empty your supermarket.

Nuance should be used more instead of being either on or off with regards to the world ending.
 

ccgear

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3
It's a whataboutism logical fallacy. Even smart people surprisingly fall for it or use it fairly often.
 

ry-dog

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,180
Yes. There should be caution. But when data start to show that this isn't as deadly as the seasonal flu then that should be emphasized instead of the unwarranted panic this is now causing.

Now if it was something deadly like Ebola then go ahead and empty your supermarket.

Nuance should be used more instead of being either on or off with regards to the world ending.

The flu is not deadlier though based on the stats. And not to sound like a conspiracy nut, but aren't all these stats coming from China anyway?
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
The flu is not deadlier though based on the stats. And not to sound like a conspiracy nut, but aren't all these stats coming from China anyway?
I'm talking about the actual data from outside China. The mortality rate of those hospitalized is about 2 to 3%. The actual mortality rate of all those infected is likely a lot lower as those with mild symptoms don't even show up in hospitals. Especially from fear of a two week quarantine making headlines.
 

mjc

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
5,879
They aren't letting people leave the ship in NJ, they aren't even allowing that lady's insurance company perform a quarantine extraction for her and her husband.
 

electricblue

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,991
I think the flu stats just highlights how we need to take the flu more seriously. We have a fucken vaccine for the flu ffs why are we ok with so many dying of it?
 

JayRB88

Member
Dec 3, 2019
176
Sounds like the passenger on the RC ship in NJ tested positive for influenza A.

"Dear Guest,
You may have been watching the news and have some concerns about today's sailing. We appreciate the CDC's abundance of caution and their partnership.
None of the four guests being tested by CDC showed any clinical signs or symptoms of coronavirus. One had tested positive onboard for Influenza A. Our records indicate the guests had not been in China since January 26 - 14 days ago.
We have also been cleared by authorities to depart, as usual. However, to reassure concerned guests, we will delay our departure ‪until tomorrow, when we will receive the conclusive test results from CDC."
 

ry-dog

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,180
I'm talking about the actual data from outside China. The mortality rate of those hospitalized is about 2 to 3%. The actual mortality rate of all those infected is likely a lot lower as those with mild symptoms don't even show up in hospitals.

While true, I don't see how it would be anything close to 0.0X% or whatever the mortality rate for the seasonal flu is. But I'm not a doctor
 

Deleted member 46948

Account closed at user request
Banned
Aug 22, 2018
8,852
While true, I don't see how it would be anything close to 0.0X% or whatever the mortality rate for the seasonal flu is. But I'm not a doctor

The CFR of patients hospitalized for seasonal flu is around 7%.
The overall CFR of flu is only 0.0X% because the vast majority of people who get it are never hospitalized.

If this ends up being a similar case, i.e. most people having a mild enough case so it doesn't require hospitalization, it can very well be around the level of seasonal flu or even less deadly (but of course, we do have flu vaccine).
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,896
Yes. There should be caution. But when data start to show that this isn't as deadly as the seasonal flu then that should be emphasized instead of the unwarranted panic this is now causing.

Now if it was something deadly like Ebola then go ahead and empty your supermarket.

Nuance should be used more instead of being either on or off with regards to the world ending.
We already know for a fact that this is significantly deadlier and causes far more complications that the seasonal flu so stop spreading bullshit.
 

Lishi

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,284
Playing this down is no better. Some of you keep going on about other diseases that are not even as contagious, now you're highlighting the Spanish flu 1918. How are we even comparing the two in world that is more densely populated and with faster modes of travel. If anything that is highlighting how terrible and world changing this thing might turn out to be.

I remember last time (was avian flu?) people were saying "lul? that is all. why all the restriction etc etc"

Hindsight is a hell of a drug.
 

Deleted member 2802

Community Resetter
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
33,729

[Host asking man waiting in huge line to buy masks]
gnRf8Fq.jpg
 

Deleted member 46948

Account closed at user request
Banned
Aug 22, 2018
8,852
We already know for a fact that this is significantly deadlier and causes far more complications that the seasonal flu so stop spreading bullshit.

No, we don't.
While you may be right, we don't "know it for a fact".
The data from China, especially Wuhan, aren't super useful, because they may be doctored, we don't know anything about how wildely the virus circulated or what other complications the people who died might have had. There's 600 dead, ~29k confirmed in Wuhan, but "confirmed" can mean tested positive and mostly quarantined at home, or hospitalized. There's likely a lot of infections that weren't tested yet. Tl;dr - we don't know what the CFR is.

We do know, however, what the data are outside of China. And there are 2 deaths so far, at least one of which was with other underlying complications. It's too soon to tell, but again, we don't "know for a fact" jack shit.
 

rckvla

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,732
I just arrived home from Japan. I had fun but at the same time kind of worried because there are a lot of Chinese tourists everywhere, from Osaka, to Kyoto, to Sapporo. So Imma wait 14 days, I guess.

Btw, I'm not trying to discriminate but majority of the cases are from China, so it made me a bit paranoid.
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
We already know for a fact that this is significantly deadlier and causes far more complications that the seasonal flu so stop spreading bullshit.
Nope.

You're the one spreading bullshit here.

2% fatality rate so far and experts are saying that this is far likely lower as the death rate is usually the highest at the early stages of a novel strain.
 

Tappin Brews

#TeamThierry
Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,869
I think the flu stats just highlights how we need to take the flu more seriously. We have a fucken vaccine for the flu ffs why are we ok with so many dying of it?

cause it doesnt always work. i get the flu shot every year. i'm currently at home for the 3rd day in a row with my second bout this year (and with my kids also with their second bout post flu vaccine).
 

Arebours

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,656
Nope.

You're the one spreading bullshit here.

2% fatality rate so far and experts are saying that this is far likely lower as the death rate is usually the highest at the early stages of a novel strain.
You don't need high mortality rates to have a disaster on your hands. It's enough that a lot of people get very ill and need medical attention. No country has health care that can deal with several times the normal pressure for a sustained time. Not to mention economic damage and lost productivity which could throw us into a recession.
 

fossi8

One Winged Slayer
Member
Apr 22, 2018
1,006
I keep seeing the acronym CFR thrown around, what does it mean?
Case fatality rate
Is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time; the resulting ratio is then multiplied by 100 to yield a percentage.
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,039
I'm going to continue to hold off my panic until a month from now to see if Japan truly has this under control before I make any rash decisions on my trip there in April. I'm hoping it calms down before then, but there are just too many unknowns — which is fucking frustrating. I just hope the India case don't grow and other countries don't act like the Darwin Award recipients up in NJ.
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
cause it doesnt always work. i get the flu shot every year. i'm currently at home for the 3rd day in a row with my second bout this year (and with my kids also with their second bout post flu vaccine).
You likely would have felt sicker without it.

Btw the pandemic flu is really what we have to worry about. It's very different from the seasonal flu.
 

JayRB88

Member
Dec 3, 2019
176
OMG! 😱

well that's that, I'm out for a bit to prep my Coronapocalypse bunker.
See y'all when it's over...

A little soon to panic. CDC declares this to be low risk. The passengers in question were in China 14 days ago and it was a 12 day cruise. A passenger tested positive for influenza A. By now a positive test result would be sure to come up.

From RC
"Dear Guest, You may have been watching the news and have some concerns about today's sailing. We appreciate the CDC's abundance of caution and their partnership. None of the four guests being tested by CDC showed any clinical signs or symptoms of coronavirus. One had tested positive onboard for Influenza A. Our records indicate the guests had not been in China since January 26 - 14 days ago. We have also been cleared by authorities to depart, as usual."
 

jelly

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
33,841
Just seen those videos on BBC news of them dragging people down hallways, seems they aren't too trusting and someone getting put in a box on the back of a small truck like a dog. Kinda extreme, I don't think there is much trust between the people and government.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,896
No, we don't.
While you may be right, we don't "know it for a fact".
The data from China, especially Wuhan, aren't super useful, because they may be doctored, we don't know anything about how wildely the virus circulated or what other complications the people who died might have had. There's 600 dead, ~29k confirmed in Wuhan, but "confirmed" can mean tested positive and mostly quarantined at home, or hospitalized. There's likely a lot of infections that weren't tested yet. Tl;dr - we don't know what the CFR is.

We do know, however, what the data are outside of China. And there are 2 deaths so far, at least one of which was with other underlying complications. It's too soon to tell, but again, we don't "know for a fact" jack shit.
Nope.

You're the one spreading bullshit here.

2% fatality rate so far and experts are saying that this is far likely lower as the death rate is usually the highest at the early stages of a novel strain.
Stop spreading dangerous disinformation. I'll stick with the WHO info that concludes the case fatality rate and complication rates dwarf those of the seasonal flu. If you think this isn't a big deal why did China's health system completely melt down. They deal with the seasonal flu every year. Did you realize that? The Coronavirus is a completely different beast from SARS or Ebola which had far higher death rates but a much smaller spread.

Downplaying the situation isn't any different from over exaggerating it. Both should be called out.
 

RestEerie

Banned
Aug 20, 2018
13,618
I think almost all the people wearing masks in Singapore are wearing it for "prevention" purposes

That's just Singaporeans doing Singaporean things....kiasu.

The most important thing is to clean your hands properly and periodically and probably just get the hell out of people that's sneezing or coughing.
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,039
So, hypothetically speaking, have there been any posts from recovered patients that have disclosed what they are paying in medical fees just to be treated for Coronavirus? Since almost all travel insurances aren't covering epidemics and pandemics, I'm sure curious what a person does if that don't have the funds for an insane bill for medical treatment of something like this? I doubt anyone has revealed anything (other than the one post I read where a guy spent nearly $200k in China for his Wife, I believe), but I was just thinking about how this would play out for the typical traveler.
 

Allard

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,927
Yes and this one will likely closely mirror that as more mild cases are reported.

This isn't Ebola.

Part of the problem with the death total vs confirmed cases total is there is going to be some humongous lag between them considering how fast this disease appears to be spreading. Same with people discharged or under severe/critical condition. That percentage is likely to go down but not necessarily as a reflection of the actual rate of death anymore. We likely won't get the true percentage till closer to the point where new cases stop getting higher and higher for a week or two. I mean we went from 1 thousand confirmed cases last week to 25k+, In addition if the severe cases don't get better, the death rate could accelerate if people are not getting properly cared for due to the sheer number of cases medical professionals need to work with. The severe cases issue is seriously the worst part of this because it means potentially treatable people may not get it because there are too many patients and too few medical professionals or facilities. We are already seeing signs of deathly stress in China regarding where physicians are working themselves too hard trying to help or save the people that are infected. If it doesn't show hints of slowing down its rate and fear a breaking point from an infrastructure standpoint is a matter of when not if.
 

Deleted member 2802

Community Resetter
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
33,729
Reporter on White House South Lawn
"Are you concerned that China is covering up the full extent of the coronavirus?"

king shitbag
"No, China's working very hard. Late last night I had a very good talk with President Xi and mostly we talked about the coronavirus. They're working really hard and I think they're doing a very professional job. They're in touch with … (the World Health Organization), CDC also."
 

Deleted member 46948

Account closed at user request
Banned
Aug 22, 2018
8,852
Stop spreading dangerous disinformation. I'll stick with the WHO info that concludes the case fatality rate and complication rates dwarf those of the seasonal flu. If you think this isn't a big deal why did China's health system completely melt down. They deal with the seasonal flu every year. Did you realize that? The Coronavirus is a completely different beast from SARS or Ebola which had far higher death rates but a much smaller spread.

Downplaying the situation isn't any different from over exaggerating it. Both should be called out.

This is concern trolling at this point.
 
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