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Oct 30, 2017
1,720
Tencent might have accidentally leaked the "real" death/infections numbers instead of the "official" ones.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

nFSRWsZ.jpg


Mountain of salt obviously though.
Seems like fake shit.

This is (probably) the original site: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

dxy.cn is is an online community for physicians, health care professionals, pharmacies and facilities, established on July 23, 2000 by Tiantian Li.

First of all, real page looks different and I don't see a connection to Tencent.
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,054
I think the cases have been from people who have been to Wuhan or in contact with people from Wuhan, so I think if you're not flying from there is probably less chance of getting it via planes. Though of course the situation can change. In the end it's your decision to make :)
I'll just say Japan is awesome, and I did read on twitter that Kyoto is much less crowded right now due to lack of Chinese tourists.

I will be going all over, but Kyoto is the place I am most excited to visit. I just hope this slows down soon and doesn't spread throughout Japan, so I am going to remain optimistic and just keep paying attention to the news.
 

Beer Monkey

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
9,308
Smart move. You might take shit for it, but you're doing the right thing for everyone.

I mean, we've got VPN and RDP etc so there's no reason not to. There are another 100 people at this office and they're all freaked out right now about my two workers being in China and returning. Whether it's rational or not, people are panicked.
 

elty

Member
Oct 31, 2017
1,954
This pandemic surely move fast.

20 days ago, number of reported case is less than 50.
15 days ago, no one in Wuhan was particularly worry and people were doing the daily lives without mask.
10 days ago, total number of confirmed case is only 5% of cases today (~1200 vs ~24000)
 

Porkepik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,339
Yeah doubt... on a taiwanese website which is probably not very china positive (even if numbers are probably much higher versus what we get ) I doubt tencent would have real numbers. Also if it had a 20% death rate as it implies we would see already 20-40 death in the out of china cases .
 

Smoothcb

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,086
What are signs this is worse than other viruses? Not entirely seeing it based on articles in this thread and elsewhere
This pandemic surely move fast.

20 days ago, number of reported case is less than 50.
15 days ago, no one in Wuhan was particularly worry and people were doing the daily lives without mask.
10 days ago, total number of confirmed case is only 5% of cases today (~1200 vs ~24000)

You also need to take into account the time it takes for testing results to skew perceived spread.
 

NihonTiger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,519
I read about this too. I'm sure being a chronic smoker and horrible air quality exasperates the seriousness.

It likely does not help at all, plus a shortage of available beds, doctors and supplies means not everyone is likely being properly treated, which may also be causing an elevated death rate if people are just sitting at home quarantined and trying to tough it out. Viral pneumonia of any sort is serious and nothing to be brushed off. There are a lot of factors definitely help making this bad, too.
 

Nivash

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,463
The one thing we can say for sure about the death rate at this time is that it isn't possible to make an accurate assessment at all. Way too many unknowns. Too many people not getting tested because of kit shortages, too many suspected cases dying and not getting tested post-mortem, way too many people getting mild symptoms and never getting a medical assessment.

That said, the 2 % figure is a decent ballpark. The only accurate figures are from the studies conducted on hospitalised patients which puts the case fatality rate at 11-15 % but that's way above the general population's rate. The hospitalised population are by definition those who are the most ill. They're the oldest, for instance, at a median age of 59.


Most estimates I read that hazard a guess puts the likely general case fatality rate somewhere around 1-2 %. Maybe, hopefully, somewhat lower than 1 %.Higher than seasonal influenza which is at about 0.1 %, way lower than the Spanish flu which sits at an estimate of 10-20 %.

This isn't the end of the world. But it's also something that can't be easily brushed off. There's no doubt about the fact that nCoV seems to lead to a lot of hospitalisations due to respiratory distress even in cases that eventually make a full recovery. Add to that that it seems to require extended recovery times, possibly weeks, with an equally or greater time of infectivity, and you get a disease that overstresses healthcare systems to their limits and impacts any economy it hits by keeping people in isolation and away from their workplaces. That's the real danger here.

That, and the panic spread by bullshit conspiracy theories. Please stop spreading them, Era.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
User banned (3 days): Posting unverified info, fear-mongering

DragonKeeper

Member
Nov 14, 2017
1,588
After a bipartisan Congress vote the CDC was
been defunded about 10% from where it was in 2016. It's not great but let's not start saying we have no response or research. To your point Zoonotic illness research and prevention budget is lower than it was 4 years ago, but to say we have nothing is a bit much.

No, I'm talking about bureaucracy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/3...ited-states-public-health-emergency-response/

"For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government's entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is."

"When Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014, President Barack Obama recognized that responding to the outbreak overseas, while also protecting Americans at home, involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, none of which were speaking to one another. Basically, the U.S. pandemic infrastructure was an enormous orchestra full of talented, egotistical players, each jockeying for solos and fame, refusing to rehearse, and demanding higher salaries—all without a conductor. To bring order and harmony to the chaos, rein in the agency egos, and create a coherent multiagency response overseas and on the homefront, Obama anointed a former vice presidential staffer, Ronald Klain, as a sort of "epidemic czar" inside the White House, clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, and placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. The orchestra may have still had its off-key instruments, but it played the same tune."

"On the domestic front, the real business of assuring public health and safety is a local matter, executed by state, county, and city departments that operate under a mosaic of laws and regulations that vary jurisdiction by jurisdiction. Some massive cities, such as New York City or Boston, have large budgets, clear regulations, and epidemic experiences that have left deep benches of medical and public health talent. But much of the United States is less fortunate on the local level, struggling with underfunded agencies, understaffing, and no genuine epidemic experience. Large and small, America's localities rely in times of public health crisis on the federal government.


Bureaucracy matters. Without it, there's nothing to coherently manage an alphabet soup of agencies housed in departments ranging from Defense to Commerce, Homeland Security to Health and Human Services (HHS)."

"In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC's entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer's DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers go unreplaced.


Public health advocates have been ringing alarm bells to no avail. Klain has been warning for two years that the United States was in grave danger should a pandemic emerge. In 2017 and 2018, the philanthropist billionaire Bill Gates met repeatedly with Bolton and his predecessor, H.R. McMaster, warning that ongoing cuts to the global health disease infrastructure would render the United States vulnerable to, as he put it, the "significant probability of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes." And an independent, bipartisan panel formed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that lack of preparedness was so acute in the Trump administration that the "United States must either pay now and gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs."


Read the full article at the link.
 

CelestialAtom

Mambo Number PS5
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,054
World Health Organization:
"To fight further spread of the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak in China and globally, and protect states with weaker health systems, the international community has launched a US$675 million preparedness and response plan covering the months of February through to April 2020.

'My biggest worry is that there are countries today who do not have the systems in place to detect people who have contracted with the virus, even if it were to emerge,' said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. 'Urgent support is needed to bolster weak health systems to detect, diagnose and care for people with the virus, to prevent further human to human transmission and protect health workers.'

The Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP) for the new coronavirus lays out activities and resources needed by international health organizations globally, including WHO, to implement priority public health measures in support of countries to prepare and respond to nCoV-2019 for a period February-April 2020. The objectives of the plan are to limit human-to-human transmission of the virus, particularly in countries most vulnerable if they were to face an outbreak; identify, isolate and care for patients early; communicate critical risk and event information; minimize social and economic impact; reduce virus spread from animal sources; and address crucial unknowns.

The plan focuses on:

  • Rapidly establishing international coordination and operational support;
  • Scaling up country readiness and response operations;
  • Accelerating priority research and innovation."
 

Deleted member 2802

Community Resetter
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
33,729
It's a double disinformation campaign.

Low ball them super low official numbers - to keep world population calm
Leak insanely high numbers - to incite all the conspiracy nuts
Now nobody believes anything.
 

Nephtes

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,550
I'm just reading about all these cruise ships quarantined for weeks due to some passengers testing positive for corona virus...

what is that like for those unaffected on the ships?
Confined to quarters? Or I mean if you're on that ship would you want to leave your room?

Are the amenities on the ships even still being provided or are these ships like the Fyre festival on a daily basis now?
 

Daverytimes

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,108
Nobody does, but China hiding over 24000 deaths? Yeahhhh, I think that's impossible.

Not that I believe that whole tens of thousands dying, but in a country of 1.4 BILLION, and a country were information is heavily restricted that number of deaths can be covered up. It's not like all those people died in one place.
 

ChippyTurtle

Banned
Oct 13, 2018
4,773
Why the fuck would Tencent have the real numbers?

Also, is that a screenshot of a webpage? Its so easy to modify the contents of a webpage, "Inspect Element". Its bs.
 

Deleted member 2802

Community Resetter
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
33,729
I'm just reading about all these cruise ships quarantined for weeks due to some passengers testing positive for corona virus...

what is that like for those unaffected on the ships?
Confined to quarters? Or I mean if you're on that ship would you want to leave your room?
I imagine they are testing everyday.
People who feel sick are immediately separated.
People who have symptoms are tested with an nCov kit and ferried to hospital.
Are the amenities on the ships even still being provided or are these ships like the Fyre festival on a daily basis now?
Free wifi, free phone, and food was re-supplied
 

Porkepik

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,339
Not that I believe that whole tens of thousands dying, but in a country of 1.4 BILLION, and a country were information is heavily restricted that number of deaths can be covered up. It's not like all those people died in one place.
Sure but even then fake numbers all the way if you look at the infected number in the 150k there is no wait they would have had the capacity to test for infection that many people especially reading how they turn away people because no tests kit are available so if that number is totally impossible the other ones too. Same with severe critical which should be people in treatment there is probably not that many hospital beds in A few chinese provinces (75 modern huge hospital is still a lot) , an hospital usually can accept a max of 1000-2000 ,(for reference 931000 beds in whole us or 60000 in canada) all the hospital in a few provinces would be overjammed and we would hear about it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
45,275
Seattle
Gates Foundation to give 100 million to Coronavirus efforts:


SEATTLE — The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will give up to $100 million for the global response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak, according to a news release from the foundation.


The nonprofit says the funding will go toward strengthening detection, isolation and treatment efforts; protecting at-risk populations, and developing vaccines, treatments and diagnostics.


"Multilateral organizations, national governments, the private sector and philanthropies must work together to slow the pace of the outbreak, help countries protect their most vulnerable citizens and accelerate the development of the tools to bring this epidemic under control," said Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman. "Our hope is that these resources will help catalyze a rapid and effective international response. This response should be guided by science, not fear, and it should build on the steps that the World Health Organization has taken to date."


The Gates Foundation is contributing more resources – in close coordination with other donors – to assist the World Health Organization (WHO), Chinese frontline responders and others at the global and national levels.
 

Deleted member 48897

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 22, 2018
13,623
Do you believe the actual numbers posted?

I think it is the nature of the beast that with local resources stressed as much as they are that it's difficult to make definitive statements on infections and deaths caused by them. The numbers will probably be low because some suspected but untested cases probably won't be counted.

I think the implication that China is uniquely predisposed to lying even among nation-states is a silly claim. Those numbers in that screenshot are so plainly false and it's not like lowballing the estimates (which is, again, not going to be by an entire order of magnitude) has done anything about panic one way or the other.
 

spam musubi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,381
I think it is the nature of the beast that with local resources stressed as much as they are that it's difficult to make definitive statements on infections and deaths caused by them. The numbers will probably be low because some suspected but untested cases probably won't be counted.

I think the implication that China is uniquely predisposed to lying even among nation-states is a silly claim. Those numbers in that screenshot are so plainly false and it's not like lowballing the estimates (which is, again, not going to be by an entire order of magnitude) has done anything about panic one way or the other.

But... China are uniquely predisposed to lying. We have seen this over many occurrences even throughout the past year. And the reason they would low ball the numbers is not to reduce panic but to protect the chinese economy.

Not that I believe that tencent article at all. Just saying beyond human error and limited supplies of testing, they would still be an unreliable source of numbers.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland

HStallion

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
62,262
Posting unreliable numbers to counter China's unreliable numbers seems like the height of stupidity.
 

Arex

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,510
Indonesia
Not that I believe that whole tens of thousands dying, but in a country of 1.4 BILLION, and a country were information is heavily restricted that number of deaths can be covered up. It's not like all those people died in one place.
1.4 billion people don't stay at one place. The coronavirus doesn't just explode all over China at once. It started in Wuhan, its population is just 11million and China is as big as the USA.
 

Chikor

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
14,239
Tencent might have accidentally leaked the "real" death/infections numbers instead of the "official" ones.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

nFSRWsZ.jpg


Mountain of salt obviously though.
So the theory here is that the Chinese government is doing a double counting and they gave the real number it to Tencent, which are an investor in this company, and they in turn shared it to with this company who then accidentally posted it.
And the evidence we have for that is a screenshot.

I'm gonna go ahead and say that we probably shouldn't be posting these type of things in this thread.
 
Mar 29, 2018
7,078
I'm just reading about all these cruise ships quarantined for weeks due to some passengers testing positive for corona virus...

what is that like for those unaffected on the ships?
Confined to quarters? Or I mean if you're on that ship would you want to leave your room?

Are the amenities on the ships even still being provided or are these ships like the Fyre festival on a daily basis now?
Somebody on the last page literally just shared what it's like.

I've been stuck on a cruise ship an extra day due to harbor fog. Quickly things go sour - same activities and 3 movies are repeated. Same food, no sun or excursions. It quickly goes from a fun vacation to a prison.
Whew. Thanks for sharing
 

mieumieu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
900
The Farplane
I'm in jiangsu province now and they allegedly quarantine anyone who returned from other provinces, so I'm stuck at home lol

I would say the Hubei/Wuhan numbers are very much underreported and it sounds more and more like a disaster, but numbers in other provinces are probably more accurate.

In official PR releases from (at least ours, and my parent's) local governments they would mention which area a confirmed infected person has been to, and how they are most likely to have got infected. No way they will hide the numbers NOW since super spreaders can be disastrous.
 

Deleted member 2802

Community Resetter
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
33,729
I'm in jiangsu province now and they allegedly quarantine anyone who returned from other provinces, so I'm stuck at home lol

I would say the Hubei/Wuhan numbers are very much underreported and it sounds more and more like a disaster, but numbers in other provinces are probably more accurate.

In official PR releases from (at least ours, and my parent's) local governments they would mention which area a confirmed infected person has been to, and how they are most likely to have got infected. No way they will hide the numbers NOW since super spreaders can be disastrous.
We can only hope.
 

aspiegamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
10,461
ZzzzzzZzzzZzz...
They won't let people out of their cabins? They can't even go walk around or anything? There are no windows? That sounds like legitimately criminal. Hell, even prisoners in solitary confinement in the US get like 45 minutes a day of "recreation time."
 
Mar 3, 2019
1,831


If they don't provide medical care to the people on the ship, then this would be downright horrifying and monstrous. In those small quarters the odds of the virus spreading are pretty high, basically trapping and condemning everyone aboard to the fate of the 10 individuals. If there are any deaths on board due to being not allowed medical care, then they will be on the country that refused it to them.
 

spam musubi

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,381
I agree with keeping people on the cruise ship quarantined, but not allowing them to breathe fresh air or see the sun? Hell no.
They won't let people out of their cabins? They can't even go walk around or anything? There are no windows? That sounds like legitimately criminal. Hell, even prisoners in solitary confinement in the US get like 45 minutes a day of "recreation time."

You guys realize that if people can roam freely they can infect each other, right? The definition of quarantining is to isolate sick people from healthy ones. Since they don't know who's sick or healthy they need to isolate everyone from each other or the sick people will infect everyone.
 

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
You guys realize that if people can roam freely they can infect each other, right? The definition of quarantining is to isolate sick people from healthy ones. Since they don't know who's sick or healthy they need to isolate everyone from each other or the sick people will infect everyone.

I would just assume everyone on board is sick, and let the people roam freely.
 

jetscanfly

Member
Jan 19, 2018
1,141
If they don't provide medical care to the people on the ship, then this would be downright horrifying and monstrous. In those small quarters the odds of the virus spreading are pretty high, basically trapping and condemning everyone aboard to the fate of the 10 individuals. If there are any deaths on board due to being not allowed medical care, then they will be on the country that refused it to them.

Obviously they're being monitored. How else are they going to know if anyone else there has it? Do you think they just took the keys for the boat and said "See ya in two weeks, good luck!"
 

LQX

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,871
Even if they were in some sort of medical facility it would be the same thing. If anything that ship is way more accommodating.
 
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