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CNN's Electoral College Puts Biden above the 270 threshold to win the presidency
- Thread starter Kaelan
- Start date
Shattering the EC threshold is important to get around contesting the results. Vote. Vote. Vote.
People forget how big a blowout 1984 was. 58% to 40% popular vote. Mondale only won MN & DC. 525 to 13 Electoral College votes. There was an SNL skit where pollsters surveyed Mondale and his HQ staff because they were checking if the popular vote was going to be unanimous.
Of course not. See 1984 or 1988 or 1996 or 2012.
yeah, he's not getting 49 states or anything like that. but 400 evs is a good possibility. and if it is a true wave, who knows what'll happen. obama carried indiana in 08 and no one expected that. biden may pull off some surprises if the electorate is as energised as early voting suggests.
trump won this by almost 20 pts in 2016....
because i look at this (even with a dem pollster) and think it shouldn't be this close.
but as i said, crazy things happen in wave elections, especially as momentum snowballs in one direction.
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I'm more worried about Trump/Republicans succeeding in blocking mail-in votes that come in after election day. I'm hoping that Biden will have enough to win on Nov 3rd even if that happens.
There was a legal podcast I listened to that explained why voting in new electors as a way to change the outcome is (probably) not very likely so I'm not as worried about that.
All this early voting stuff....I mean I want to get excited as well, but there are a lot of retired seniors wanting to make sure Trump gets back in. They have the time to go vote early. Or they are not seniors and just angry people who want to go vote early for Trump.
I know this is surprising, but his name is Thom not Tom, because I have to assume he's on the wrong side of everything, including his own name.
About that:
Analysis: How Trump's losing among seniors at a historic rate
Former Vice President Joe Biden has jumped out to an 11-point lead over President Donald Trump in CNN's poll of polls. While Biden is doing better with pretty much all groups compared with 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, one group jumps out: seniors.
The seniors will still probably mostly go red, but Trump needs em all to turn out reliably GOP as in the past and Biden took a chunk. Covid killed that demographic for him (figuratively and literally, lol).
Also I think the GOP underestimates just how angry some of the voters are at them. You minus 'teh antifas' 'soros dollars' 'clinton agents' etc and how many thousands peacefully protested all over the US this summer? To think it was strictly for #BLM was naive, and those are not GOP voters, those might as well have been Anti-Trump drives
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To everyone that thinks polling showing Biden at 290 will hurt Biden, you'd probably also argue that polling showing Trump at 290 would hurt Biden. Stop being so dour.
He's trying to be like Thom Yorke. except not as cool or good at music
I'm afraid half the party think this means stay home and cry in your wine and cheesecake
Sorry, I'm not getting my hopes up unless the polls show Jeb! at 290
Races tighten considerably in the last week, polls in mid October 2016 had Hillary with a 12 point lead over Trump
www.cnn.com
Many articles predicted at the same time she had a 95% chance of winning and predicted she would have 326 electoral votes to Trump only getting 212
www.reuters.com
The final results? Hillary won the popular vote but Trump got 304 EV's to Hillarys 227.
2020 is not the same as 2016 but sitting back comfortably and saying "oh, Bidens got this!" is eerily a repeat of history.
Americans also have a wild and weird rebellious streak, if you start telling everyone that Biden has it in the bag a lot of people will perversely go out of their way to vote for the underdog
New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits | CNN Politics
Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.
Many articles predicted at the same time she had a 95% chance of winning and predicted she would have 326 electoral votes to Trump only getting 212
Clinton far ahead in Electoral College race: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.
www.reuters.com
The final results? Hillary won the popular vote but Trump got 304 EV's to Hillarys 227.
2020 is not the same as 2016 but sitting back comfortably and saying "oh, Bidens got this!" is eerily a repeat of history.
Americans also have a wild and weird rebellious streak, if you start telling everyone that Biden has it in the bag a lot of people will perversely go out of their way to vote for the underdog
Races tighten considerably in the last week, polls in mid October 2016 had Hillary with a 12 point lead over Trump
New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits | CNN Politics
Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.
Many articles predicted at the same time she had a 95% chance of winning and predicted she would have 326 electoral votes to Trump only getting 212
Clinton far ahead in Electoral College race: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.
The final results? Hillary won the popular vote but Trump got 304 EV's to Hillarys 227.
2020 is not the same as 2016 but sitting back comfortably and saying "oh, Bidens got this!" is eerily a repeat of history.
no one's sitting back
we're all voting our asses off
hope you're there too
If people are dumb enough to retroactively believe that 2016 polls had eliminated a Trump victory, and that motivates them to vote, shhhhhhhh.
Nah, I'm not going to vote because I'm complacent now. Who actually is going to be complacent after what happened in 2016? We are seeing massive signs that's not the case.
In 2016 my wife cared nothing for politics, she barely voted and I had to make her do it. Then Trump got elected. I won't lie, that shit broke me. I couldn't sleep and spent the last three years avoiding him at all costs. My wife though, got interested.
It's hard to see, but there is a visceral hatred of Trump that isn't the same with other Presidents. Even the strong dislike of W really doesn't compare. My wife could scoff at W and go about her day without feeling growing rage at the sight of him. That the Rs have exposed themselves to that hatred is going to cost them.
It's anecdotal, sure, but there are many like her that woke up to this shitheel as president and aren't having any of it.
Biden's lead will increase turn out. The one thing standing in the way is the suppression and post election fuckery.
There's also the dynamic of the people just want some peace and fucking quiet. Which I think will come in to play after Nov. 3. I think we'll find people far less enthused, even among Trump voters, about fighting for the close win.
So yeah, vote. But this ain't 2016. VOTE.
It's hard to see, but there is a visceral hatred of Trump that isn't the same with other Presidents. Even the strong dislike of W really doesn't compare. My wife could scoff at W and go about her day without feeling growing rage at the sight of him. That the Rs have exposed themselves to that hatred is going to cost them.
It's anecdotal, sure, but there are many like her that woke up to this shitheel as president and aren't having any of it.
Biden's lead will increase turn out. The one thing standing in the way is the suppression and post election fuckery.
There's also the dynamic of the people just want some peace and fucking quiet. Which I think will come in to play after Nov. 3. I think we'll find people far less enthused, even among Trump voters, about fighting for the close win.
So yeah, vote. But this ain't 2016. VOTE.
It's not enough to just win, we need to make sure Trump gets utterly demolished. This national tragedy isn't over until he's out on inauguration day.
Worth remembering this was right after the Access Hollywood tape. And Clinton inaggregate was up by only about 5 and a half points.Races tighten considerably in the last week, polls in mid October 2016 had Hillary with a 12 point lead over Trump
New poll shows Clinton over Trump by double-digits | CNN Politics
Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.
Many articles predicted at the same time she had a 95% chance of winning and predicted she would have 326 electoral votes to Trump only getting 212
Clinton far ahead in Electoral College race: Reuters/Ipsos poll
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.
The final results? Hillary won the popular vote but Trump got 304 EV's to Hillarys 227.
2020 is not the same as 2016 but sitting back comfortably and saying "oh, Bidens got this!" is eerily a repeat of history.
Americans also have a wild and weird rebellious streak, if you start telling everyone that Biden has it in the bag a lot of people will perversely go out of their way to vote for the underdog
I still can't believe a tape of him proudly admitting to sexual assault didn't obliterate his candidacy.
American's don't really care about sexual assault. See Brett Kavanaugh.
Dude literally said he could go out on 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and people would still vote for him. And he's bang on, his supporters are in a whole different reality.
At this point, I'd try not to be paranoid about some unknown group of Trump voters appearing out of nowhere and simply out-voting democrats. We're past that, there aren't enough of them. That is the entire reason why the GOP is trying to steal the election. They know they don't have the votes. It's over.
The real concern is whether the democratic wave is big enough to definitively crush Republicans' suppression tactics. Like, if Republicans manage to destroy 100,000 ballots here or there, there needs to be 300,000 more votes ready to bury them alive.
Plus, a high margin of victory will make it hard for Republicans to attempt legal tactics challenging the results.
The real concern is whether the democratic wave is big enough to definitively crush Republicans' suppression tactics. Like, if Republicans manage to destroy 100,000 ballots here or there, there needs to be 300,000 more votes ready to bury them alive.
Plus, a high margin of victory will make it hard for Republicans to attempt legal tactics challenging the results.
26 more days, right?
I know 2020 will throw us another curve. Stay patient, wait for the right time to swing and let's close it out and carry the fight through to 2021.
I know 2020 will throw us another curve. Stay patient, wait for the right time to swing and let's close it out and carry the fight through to 2021.
