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Kthulhu

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,670
I think it's possible. Like I pointed out before, we had a senate runoff in GA beat the turnout of the 2016 Presidential elections. The old 'well, midterms the incumbant party gets creamed' math isn't the same.

Two years is far, but not that far away. Its not as if we won't still be dealing with covid, a shit economy, or the remenants of Trumpism then. Could work in either direction, but I think in the US we are past the whole idea of 'well, I am gonna vote for the other team this time around'. Politics have gotten way too polarized for that to be counted as anything close to a fact, we are in 'new normal' territory

As influential as Trump is I don't think he's enough to undo a trend that has been going for decades.

Covid will either make or break it. I could easily see a mobilization of the right in reaction to increased Covid restrictions as the media fuels the culture war.
 

Marshall

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,982
I think it will really come down to "Do you prefer normalcy, or to revert back to ridiculous lies and conspiracy?", when it comes to Dems vs GOP in 2022.
 

Foltzie

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,788
I mean, sure. We already knew the senate map was bad for pubs in '22. It was always the house that was going to be vulnerable.
The house will be more than vulnerable if the current congress doesn't pass some restrictions on redistricting. The Rs have as much command over restricting this time as they did in 2001 and 2011.
 

Wafflinson

Banned
Nov 17, 2017
2,084
This again?

Almost every single fucking time, and yet jack shit happens.

Susan Collins is still there, that senator from North Carolina too.

Every round when they get wrecked they immediately point to the next election instead of finding out what the fuck went wrong and how to fix it, say, like Georgia.
Democrats gained control of the Senate after a decade in the minority.

They didn't "get wrecked".

They didn't hit their stretch goals, but that is life. You don't win them all.
 
Dec 7, 2017
185
He did, Trump lost the house in 18
Trump lost the House in the 2018 midterms
Trump lost 40 seats in the House, but the 2018 senate map was historically favorable to Republicans because it was the result of fantastic Dem election years in 2006 and 2012. Republicans didn't have further to fall in that set of states.

Oops, of course. I was just focussing on the Senate and I remember how fucking gutted I felt. I still see 2018 as a loss, but I guess it wasn't.
 

Wafflinson

Banned
Nov 17, 2017
2,084
The house will be more than vulnerable if the current congress doesn't pass some restrictions on redistricting. The Rs have as much command over restricting this time as they did in 2001 and 2011.
What specific laws do people think that we could pass that would affect redistricting?

The constitution pretty clearly leaves that as a state power, and SCOTUS has consistently backed that up,
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
2022 could absolutely go either way, but if Biden gets the US economy back on track and the Dems slam through a voting rights act they will likely crush the GOP.
 

Mandos

Member
Nov 27, 2017
30,933
Take the 2k check to the senate floor, every R that doesn't vote for will have ads 24/7 about it.

Also a real danger is how voting laws will be changed at that point, Republicans are going to ramp up voter suppression no doubt.
That's why they've already announced a voters rights act to counteract that and designed it in a way it can't be taken apart as one thing
 

molnizzle

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,695
Damn, I didn't realize the GA seats were up for re-election in 2022. That fucking sucks man.
 

Wafflinson

Banned
Nov 17, 2017
2,084
Democrats has to pull something because they lost seats in the house and performed poorly in the Senate race
The house is concerning, but I wish people would stop pushing the abject fiction that the dems blew the senate.

The senate map in 2020 was SHIT for democrats and heavily favored republicans. After 2018 pretty much all the pundits remarked that the Dems taking the senate was very unlikely as there were so few republican seats up, while the democrats had a ton of vulnerable senators.

Its a minor miracle that they pulled it off. People just created a false narrative in their heads that somehow the dems were going to sweep every senate seat that was even marginally close.
 

Biggzy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,929
2022 could absolutely go either way, but if Biden gets the US economy back on track and the Dems slam through a voting rights act they will likely crush the GOP.

Yeah, I am confident in saying that if is vaccination program is handled well and the economy is growing again, along with the lack of craziness that came with the Trump administration, the Dems have a very good chance of gaining an outright majority in the senate. In terms of the House it is more up in the air due to Gerrymandering though.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,083
Arkansas, USA
Warnock was also the more known quantity in the election iirc. Ossoff was the one everyone wasn't sure about winning, but Warnock was a lock, right? So it's probably very good he's the one up for a full term in 2022.

It is, the chance of Ossoff losing in 2022 is definitely higher than it is for Warnock. I'm also fairly confident that is the reason he ran against Loeffler rather than Perdue. The timing is going to work out well, assuming Abrams wins in 2022 she may end up helping both Warnock and Ossoff (in 2026) cross the finish line.
 

boxter432

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
9,260
Damn, I didn't realize the GA seats were up for re-election in 2022. That fucking sucks man.
just Warnock, b/c that was a special election after Loeffler was named to replace the rep senator who resigned in 2019, that seat was originally elected 2016 so is up in 2022.
Ossof is just starting his 6 year term

edit: well this was discussed a billion times already in the last 20 minutes lol
 

Foltzie

One Winged Slayer
The Fallen
Oct 26, 2017
6,788
What specific laws do people think that we could pass that would affect redistricting?

The constitution pretty clearly leaves that as a state power, and SCOTUS has consistently backed that up,
The constitution doesn't provide as much detail on House apportionment, so it is governed by the Reapportionment act of 1929, which oddly enough did away with compactness requirements, which allows for gerrymandering, even though the SC has ruled against gerrymandering conceptually, its avoided providing a clear standard.

The SC has generally* ruled that they will not take political preference into account when ruling on "One Person, One Vote" matters, but congress could add that to a new law.

*I know that changed kinda in the 2006 ruling, but another case hasn't come forward to test if the court would be willing to rule differently and in the 15 years its composition has changed.**

Edit: ** Looks like there was a 2019 case that went 5-4 basically punting again and asking for congress to settle this. So I hope this is part of Biden's voting rights package.
 

CommodoreKong

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,709
The party in the White House almost always loses seats, hope Biden pushes as much through in his first two years as possible.
The good thing is the Biden admin is already working on 2022:
www.politico.com

Inside Joe Biden’s plan to avoid a midterm ‘shellacking’

Presidents traditionally get pummeled in the off years. Especially those in their first term. But Team Biden has a plan. And some Dems are cautiously optimistic.


Obviously too early to say what will happen but it's really good they're already planning ahead.
 

molnizzle

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,695
just Warnock, b/c that was a special election after Loeffler was named to replace the rep senator who resigned in 2019, that seat was originally elected 2016 so is up in 2022.
Ossof is just starting his 6 year term

edit: well this was discussed a billion times already in the last 20 minutes lol
Oh, well at least it's Warnock. He has much better chances.
 

Brinbe

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
58,292
Terana
Can't wait to replace fucking stupid Toomey's seat.

In a lot of ways, Obama/Biden walked (and learned some harsh lessons) so that Harris and whoever she picks for VP can run.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
I didn't realize that Warnock's and Kelly's seats were both up for reelection in 2022. That's the disadvantage of special election seats. While they are a bit easier to win since you are going against an unelected incumbent, they only get you two years guaranteed. I'm glad that at least Ossoff has a guaranteed 6 years.
 

hurlex

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,143
pretty sure Republicans picked up a seat in the 2018 elections. Everyone talking about a trend in the election after a presidential one is referring to the House, which is a different story.
 

Deleted member 70788

Jun 2, 2020
9,620
pretty sure Republicans picked up a seat in the 2018 elections. Everyone talking about a trend in the election after a presidential one is referring to the House, which is a different story.

This is because the map was very different. 6 years per seat (assuming no special elections) means it's not the same every mid-term. That's the point of the OP. The GOP has to defend a lot more seats in some battleground states.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,083
Arkansas, USA
I didn't realize that Warnock's and Kelly's seats were both up for reelection in 2022. That's the disadvantage of special election seats. While they are a bit easier to win since you are going against an unelected incumbent, they only get you two years guaranteed. I'm glad that at least Ossoff has a guaranteed 6 years.

They're both really strong candidates. The GOP will have its hands full finding candidates that can compete with them.

I'm more concerned with who the party will nominate in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Vermont (is Leahy going to run?).

The party should be concerned about Vermont, Phil Scott could beat Leahy and it's always a gamble running someone with low name recognition. Vermont needs some young blood Dems with statewide notoriety.
 
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qaopjlll

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,788
The country is basically split 100% down the middle at this point, there are 25 states that voted for Biden and 25 states that voted for Trump, and 22 out of 25 Biden states have two D senators (counting Bernie as D) while 22 out of 25 Trump states have 2 R senators.
 

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
Banned
Nov 8, 2017
5,826
pretty sure Republicans picked up a seat in the 2018 elections. Everyone talking about a trend in the election after a presidential one is referring to the House, which is a different story.

There is still a trend of losing Senate seats in the President's party during midterms, but it's not as pronounced as the House due to staggered seats. Obama started off with a 60 seat Senate majority in 2008, and they lost the majority by 2014. Republicans survived losing their Senate majority in 2018 thanks to having one of the most favorable maps for them in decades, but they still lost the majority two years later. But as you said, the House has the biggest swings, and the Democrats' majority there is way too thin to feel safe for 2022.
 

Deleted member 1476

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,449
User banned (1 week): unprovoked hostility against another member + prior infractions for toxic behaviour
The senate map in 2020 was SHIT for democrats and heavily favored republicans. After 2018 pretty much all the pundits remarked that the Dems taking the senate was very unlikely as there were so few republican seats up, while the democrats had a ton of vulnerable senators.

Bwahahahah, HAHAHAH.

I love the gaslighting and the revisionist history right here. Love it, really, par for the course, just like I said. Same song and dance.
 
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bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,894
The party in the White House almost always loses seats, hope Biden pushes as much through in his first two years as possible.
Yeah this is a little delusional.

Everyone loves Biden now. But in 6-12 months reality is going to set in and even progressives are going to start getting annoyed at him for not doing what they want or doing it fast enough.

2 years is a long time. By then no one will be talking about Trump and Biden will have a huge target on his back.
 

The Climaxan

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,974
NC-USA
I really like the chances of Jeff Jackson taking Richard Burr's soon to be vacant seat in 2022 here in NC. Even more so if Lara Trump shows up.
 

Deleted member 1476

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,449
Are they wrong? Democrats were defending like 26 seats out of the 34. Actually gaining any net was nigh impossible and it was a goddamn miracle that they managed to win 24 of the races.

There's a few ways to frame "good". Either raw set of states, or how much they are stuck trying to defend.

Yes? Hint, the republicans weren't the ones with over 70% chance of winning the senate.

Still 20-30% of happening and that it almost did, but to say now that the map was bad is gaslighting, yes.

There are a pile of analysts, articles out there on how many seats dems could possibly get, and the massive majority said that it favored dem, by quite the margin.
 

LegendofJoe

Member
Oct 28, 2017
12,083
Arkansas, USA
I really like the chances of Jeff Jackson taking Richard Burr's soon to be vacant seat in 2022 here in NC. Even more so if Lara Trump shows up.

I think so too, and ironically his disdainful comment about Schumer telling him he'd spend the next several months in a basement raising money will likely give him a boost with independents. Combine that with his military service, personality, and skill with social media and he will be a very formidable candidate. He would crush Lara Trump.
 

BIG-JG

Member
Oct 27, 2017
771
Warnock's Senate seat was a special election to fill the rest of Johnny Isakson's term, which normally expired in 2022. So he needs to run for re-election. Same with Mark Kelly in Arizona.

The seat Ossoff won was regularly scheduled and will last the normal six years.


DC statehood would mean two new Democratic senators, easily. DC has never voted for the Republicans since they were given electoral votes, and the last time a Democrat got less than 90% there was Kerry in 04 who *only* got 89%.

If the Democrats enacted statehood and got new senators appointed by Fall, they'd have an outright majority of 52-50, no tied votes, no power sharing etc.
Ok, thats what I thought, Lets get that done.
 

Wafflinson

Banned
Nov 17, 2017
2,084
Bwahahahah, HAHAHAH.

I love the gaslighting and the revisionist history right here. Love it, really, par for the course, just like I said. Same song and dance.

Pull your head out of your ass.


The dems really only had one "Prime" target in 2020 with Colorado, which is essentially a blue state.

All the other states being targets for pickups were states that were carried by Trump and had little history of voting Dem. Montana, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina Arizona, Iowa.... all states that Trump won in 2016.

The one exception is Maine where, while a blue state overall, had a senator that won her last election by 37%... a blowout. So even there the democrats were underdogs.

That isn't even getting into the fact that we were defending multiple seats in Trump states such as Alabama.


You literally no no clue what you are talking about.
 

Cyanity

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,345
Let's just assume it'll be an uphill battle and start laying the groundwork for victory today.
 

Neo C.

Member
Nov 9, 2017
3,002
I expect lots of protest votes against dems in 2022. People will blame their misery on the dems, even for things the GOP started.
 

RR30

Member
Oct 22, 2018
2,266
Yes? Hint, the republicans weren't the ones with over 70% chance of winning the senate.

Still 20-30% of happening and that it almost did, but to say now that the map was bad is gaslighting, yes.

There are a pile of analysts, articles out there on how many seats dems could possibly get, and the massive majority said that it favored dem, by quite the margin.

Analysts were wrong again. They heavily underestimated the Trump boost. 2018 with no Trump polls were a lot more accurate. Will that matter in 2 years without him? It remains to be seen. Long way to go especially with redistricting coming up.
 

Critch

Banned
Dec 10, 2017
1,360
If I had to predict now, I'd say a couple pickups in the Senate, and thanks to Republican infighting/embarrassment over the failed insurrection/Trump backers still making scenes, we hold the House, if just barely.