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CNN: How Biden's lead over Trump differs from Clinton in 2016

shinobi602

shinobi602

Verified
Oct 24, 2017
8,357
Before the dozens of expected replies, *sigh*, yes please ignore the polls, please vote, do everything you can to make sure your vote is counted.

That being said, it's also good to understand why and how this election is different than 2016, if anything just to set the record straight. It's been explained many times over, but CNN Political Analyst Harry Enten summarizes it all pretty well in the video below:

  • National Lead: At this point in 2016, Clinton's lead over Trump was just 6 pts, at only 46%. Biden is up over the highly desired 50% mark at 52% compared to 42% for Trump
  • White & Non-College Whites: Biden has eaten a massive amount into Trump's hold with white voters (Trump won whites by 18 pts in 2016, now he's up only 2 pts) & non-college whites (Trump won by 30 pts in 2016, now down to 18 pts)
  • Ohio and Iowa: Trump blew out Clinton and won these by 8 & 9 pts respectively in 2016, Biden is now leading 1 & 2 pts respectively, a huge shift
  • Favorability: Clinton was a very disliked candidate, at only 42% favorable and a whopping 53% unfavorable. It's completely shifted: Biden is well liked at 53% favorable vs 41% unfavorable
  • Honesty/Trustworthiness: Where Clinton and Trump's trustworthiness among likely voters was at 41% & 45% respectively, Biden and Trump are at 58% & 33%, another huge difference
  • Trust to handle nation's biggest problem: Republicans were more trusted to handle the country's problems by 4 pts, 42% to 38% for Dems in 2016, while now it's shifted to 47% for Dems & 39% for Reps

 
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Indy in the Fridge

Indy in the Fridge

Banned
Oct 30, 2017
15,278
this is one of those times i will bury my head in the sand and not get my hopes up.

early voting in NC starts tomorrow. that's all i care about right now. VOTE.
 
Trey

Trey

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,013
I can't ever imagine seeing the disaster that is Republican leadership, and thinking anything they have to offer is a more preferable direction to lead the country with. Even if you hated liberal/progressive policies.
 
gardfish

gardfish

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,628
Yeah, obviously vote like the polls don't exist, but I'm at the point where it's becoming clear to me that, in a fair election, Biden will win no contest.

"Fair election" being the operative words, though. Republican voter suppression and dirty tactics will be in full force in this election, so it's more important than ever that Biden's lead is clear, insurmountable, and, ideally, evident on election night.
 
Bronx-Man

Bronx-Man

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,351
User Banned (Permanent): Misogynist Slur; Long History of Trolling and Inflammatory Posting
Crazy to think that after four years of pondering over America's reckoning with white supremacy, Russian influence, the Comey letter and everything else; the reality is this buffoon got the presidency because mid-westerners didn't want to vote for an unlikable shrew that felt the Oval Office was owed. You get a *slightly* more popular neoliberal running for office and he's about to crush in the biggest landslide since Reagan. How sobering.
 
ClickyCal'

ClickyCal'

Member
Oct 25, 2017
59,687
gardfish said:
Yeah, obviously vote like the polls don't exist, but I'm at the point where it's becoming clear to me that, in a fair election, Biden will win no contest.

"Fair election" being the operative words, though. Republican voter suppression and dirty tactics will be in full force in this election, so it's more important than ever that Biden's lead is clear, insurmountable, and, ideally, evident on election night.
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Which is why spamming VOTE is important no matter how many people want to make fun of it. The bigger the blowout, the smaller the chance of the republi-cons being able to cheat it. It's also why people wasting their vote or choosing not to are infact doing something hurtful.
 
ReturnOfThaMack88

ReturnOfThaMack88

Alt-Account
Banned
May 30, 2020
567
If we didn't have the stupid broken system we do, with voter suppression in important electoral areas, I would be at ease. Honestly we should all be able to see this and be at ease like any real democracy would be. Instead we accept our country is the joke that it is and know it might not mean shit.
 
Flex1212

Flex1212

Member
Jul 12, 2019
4,153
Thank you for this post Shinobi. Things are looking good as long as we do our part and vote.
 
tuffy

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,514
It's also worth noting that while the polls in 2016 were quite volatile, the 2020 polls have been extremely stable for a long time. This likely indicates there aren't a lot of undecides left in the race at this point, and recent polling hints that those that are left are breaking towards Biden.
 
Hootie

Hootie

Member
Dec 25, 2017
1,333
The fact that Trump is still polling around 40%, after every damn thing that's happened these past 4 years, is utterly appalling. I just can't wrap my head around it
 
Sexy Fish

Sexy Fish

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
4,395
You can be optimistic, know that Biden is very likely to win, and still vote. No democrat will be complacent this election(and many are already voting!!!)

And it is telling that Hillary lost because she didn't have a penis and that Comey letter just made people confirm their thoughts of "SHE'S UNTRUSTWORTHY" when her emails didn't have jack shit. And if she won and the covid deaths were a fraction of what they were now she'd be heading to defeat anyway.

Has to fucking suck being a woman in politics.
 
ClickyCal'

ClickyCal'

Member
Oct 25, 2017
59,687
Hootie said:
The fact that Trump is still polling around 40%, after every damn thing that's happened these past 4 years, is utterly appalling. I just can't wrap my head around it
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It's people that literally would vote Trump no matter what. He literally could say he is going to nuke the Moon and Trumpers would say that it will help the economy and make America great.
 
Sydle

Sydle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,280
Hootie said:
The fact that Trump is still polling around 40%, after every damn thing that's happened these past 4 years, is utterly appalling. I just can't wrap my head around it
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Is it really hard to believe there are that many white people in the US who are voting for him just because he pisses off people they don't like? I don't find it hard to believe at all.
 
YozoraXV

YozoraXV

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,979
The real difference is Clinton had a political record that voters could reference, Trump didn't in 2016 so most people assumed he couldn't be that bad.

That has changed now.
 
Sonicfan1373

Sonicfan1373

Member
Nov 24, 2017
783
Why was Clinton's likability and trustworthiness so low? Look personally I liked Sander's policies over Clinton, but I never thought that Clinton wasn't a decent and capable stateswoman. Why was she so hated?
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,219
Pretty much what I've been saying. Trump won by such a slim margin, and he doesn't have any of the advantages that he had last time.
 
Kyrios

Kyrios

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,659
tuffy said:
It's also worth noting that while the polls in 2016 were quite volatile, the 2020 polls have been extremely stable for a long time. This likely indicates there aren't a lot of undecides left in the race at this point, and recent polling hints that those that are left are breaking towards Biden.
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Yup. I have a hard time believing there are still a lot of people who are still undecided.

Lobster Roll said:
The fact that people trusted Trump in 2016 over Clinton is disturbing.
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There was a big movement back then about not trusting a politician and wanted to see what a non-politician could do as president. The entire election was basically about going against the status quo and people really believed or hoped that Trump really would "drain the swamp" instead of over-filling it like he actually did.

While obviously the #1 rule is still vote, I'm still pretty optimistic.
 
DarthWalden

DarthWalden

Prophet of Truth
The Fallen
Oct 27, 2017
6,030
I'll never understand the hate for HIillary Clinton, to me she was a really great candidate... much better than Joe Biden.

I just think FOX found a way to villainize her and round that base and spread that image in a way that its basically impossible to do with Joe Biden.
Between being a women, that whole bullshit Banghzai thing and the fact she was married to a man who was impeached from office.
 

Bradbatross

Member
Mar 17, 2018
14,219
I'm not American, but if I was, Biden's current lead would make me more energized to vote for him, not less.
 
Lord Fanny

Lord Fanny

Banned
Apr 25, 2020
25,953
I mean, all of this is kind of meaningless in the end. We still don't know what extent the Trump admin and GOP will actually go to to hold onto power, so it's all FUD. All you can do is vote, in the end, even though it's largely meaningless in the long run and will just serve to stop the bleeding for a brief period.
 
bionic77

bionic77

Member
Oct 25, 2017
30,894
What would it take for Ohio and Florida to overwhelmingly support a democratic candidate?

I am hoping PA goes a strong blue and we can pick up one of those states and go to sleep early.
 
JimD

JimD

Member
Aug 17, 2018
3,503
Poll responses don't get suppressed. Votes do. Voter suppression in this election is going to be absolutely next level.

I was living in Atlanta in 2018 and saw it first hand: In *Democrat* controlled areas of the city, polling locations were closed for no good reason and lines were incredibly long (took me 3 hours). I saw people walk away from the line because they had no other option because of work/kids/health, etc. In battleground state next month we're going to see short lines in red areas, long lines in blue ones, and lots of ballots not counted. Probably even intimidation at polling locations. I absolutely believe Biden has a greater advantage in people's *intended vote* than Clinton did... while at the same the situation may be even more precarious.

And yes, the way to conquer this is to fight back, but the emphasis has to be multi-faceted.
1.VOTE
2. BE READY TO FIGHT FOR YOUR VOTE
3. PREPARE IN ADVANCE FOR YOUR VOTE
 
lenovox1

lenovox1

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,995
bionic77 said:
What would it take for Ohio and Florida to overwhelmingly support a democratic candidate?

I am hoping PA goes a strong blue and we can pick up one of those states and go to sleep early.
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The Democrats that win big in Ohio, like Sherrod Brown, and Florida, like Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, are not nationally viable.
 
MIMIC

MIMIC

Member
Dec 18, 2017
8,332
Is just saying "vote" without providing anything substantive to the OP a meme now? Trump is going to fucking lose by all accounts and people are ALREADY voting in record numbers.

Anyway, I think the favorability rating is key. People don't vote for people they don't like (and will cut their nose off to spite their face) and that really hurt Hillary.
 

Deleted member 4090

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,053
Sonicfan1373 said:
Why was Clinton's likability and trustworthiness so low? Look personally I liked Sander's policies over Clinton, but I never thought that Clinton wasn't a decent and capable stateswoman. Why was she so hated?
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She went from way above average popularity to where she ended up because attacks worked. Benghazi, emails, and Trump's general nastiness did a job on her, but equivalent attacks aren't working against Biden for some bizarre and mysterious reason.



(outright misogyny + sexist baggage that fosters an environment where attacks stick better against female politicians)
 
TeenageFBI

TeenageFBI

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,242
DarthWalden said:
I'll never understand the hate for HIillary Clinton, to me she was a really great candidate... much better than Joe Biden.

I just think FOX found a way to villainize her and round that base and spread that image in a way that its basically impossible to do with Joe Biden.
Between being a women, that whole bullshit Banghzai thing and the fact she was married to a man who was impeached from office.
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The attacks on Hillary started well before Fox News was a thing. Since 1975 when she married Bill yet kept her maiden name Rodham. True or not, decades of attacks took their toll and the feeling that she was untrustworthy was internalized by many people.

Clinton was a historically poor candidate, not because she was unqualified, but because people just hated her.
 
Ramsay

Ramsay

Member
Jul 2, 2019
3,623
Australia
Vote. The bigger the lead, the harder it is for Trump to cheat - and the more likely that Trumpism will be discredited by the Republicans.
 

Deleted member 4090

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,053
DarthWalden said:
I'll never understand the hate for HIillary Clinton, to me she was a really great candidate... much better than Joe Biden.

I just think FOX found a way to villainize her and round that base and spread that image in a way that its basically impossible to do with Joe Biden.
Between being a women, that whole bullshit Banghzai thing and the fact she was married to a man who was impeached from office.
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Sexism works. Hillary was really damn popular when she started laying the groundwork of her campaign in 2013. Like, tremendously popular. Attacks worked because she was a woman and because she was held to a higher standard than male politicians.
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Hootie said:
The fact that Trump is still polling around 40%, after every damn thing that's happened these past 4 years, is utterly appalling. I just can't wrap my head around it
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You're never going to see a major party nominee fall significantly below 40% in a US presidential election, barring a major third party candidate swiping votes. Even then, probably the best example in recent years is Perot in 1992 winning 19% of the vote, but this still left the Clinton-Bush matchup at 43-37. It's crazy, but it is what it is.

The major shift under the hood is the way states have polarized in the Electoral College. The days of Nixon and Reagan winning 49 states are over due to the way rural and urban areas have realigned, i.e. highly urban states favoring Democrats and highly rural states favoring Republicans (which also correlates strongly with education, as can be seen in the splits between college-educated white voters and those who are not).

Biden's ceiling is probably 413 electoral votes (which requires winning every swing state including Texas), which will look less impressive on paper compared to some of the historical routs we've seen, but in this day and age that's much more than you'd expect a candidate to win.
 
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