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Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
If the vaccine is available, open this shit up, it would be beyond embarrassing to keep everything closed for people that refuse to take the vaccine. Those that want to will get it, everybody else well you can't force them.

Even if there are still a moderate number of deaths...and there very may well be...people just aren't having it anymore.

Our politicians don't give a shit, (Hair salon, vacation, traveling, not wearing masks) as some of them did, also our Government not wanting to provide for the people with money, a monthly check instead of once after many months, just one shitshow.
 

Xando

Member
Oct 28, 2017
27,336
If everyone is vaccinated no reason things can't be normal by end of this year.
Except at 60-70% vaccination numbers are probably gonna start to stagnate and you would basically speedrun 100m covid infections by going back to normal. Especially if vaccines don't stop transmission
 

SeanM

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,434
USA
Based on how they're vaccinating, should see a dramatic shift by year's end. You have to realize anti-vaxxers are loud. They aren't more than 10% of the US population.

I think you're greatly underestimating that figure. It's probably closer to 30% of the US population if not more.

I've read a bunch of articles and polls that even a shocking number of first responders and health care workers are refusing to get the vaccine currently. There appears to be a lot of skepticism with many taking a wait-and-see approach.
 

Bacon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,630
Sometimes I think people on this board would prefer it if we never returned to normal
 

Deleted member 4461

User Requested Account Deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
I still stand by my answer of Summer 2021. That's close to where Fauci's updated prediction is + we're vaccinating at a rate far quicker than other countries.

OP, I think the prediction you were talking about was in the much earlier thread re: Fauci, and his most recent predictions are like... April-ish.

Sometimes I think people on this board would prefer it if we never returned to normal

It's possible. Funny enough, I just saw a tweet on that very subject.



I can empathize with the feeling. Especially if you're used to it.

But, it's not great for most people, financially, mentally, or physically. The soonest we can safely be done with this, we should be done with this. And it seems that's coming up fast.
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
People will go back to normal by themselves. Even in blue, educated cities, people are tired of this and partying or meeting with random people all the time.

You can't just pretend COVID doesn't exist though. So that 'normal' will shatter once they or their loved ones start having trouble breathing.

Sometimes I think people on this board would prefer it if we never returned to normal

I don't get it. What do you want some of us to say? Let's just be realistic. We're not there yet.

That isn't being pessimistic.
 
Last edited:

Bacon

Member
Oct 26, 2017
1,630
You can't just pretend COVID doesn't exist though. So that 'normal' will shatter once they or their loved ones start having trouble breathing.



I don't get it. What do you want some of us to say? Let's just be realistic. We're not there yet.

That isn't being pessimistic.

Early to mid 2023 is being about as pessimistic as one could be
 

Deleted member 4461

User Requested Account Deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
You can't just pretend COVID doesn't exist though. So that 'normal' will shatter once they or their loved ones start having trouble breathing.



I don't get it. What do you want some of us to say? Let's just be realistic. We're not there yet.

That isn't being pessimistic.

Fauci is predicting everyone could get access to vaccines by April. U.S. is doing AMAZING with vaccinations right now.

The negative predictions are now actively ignoring the experts.

EDIT: Traveling the day after getting the vaccine is obviously not the best idea, but I'm hopeful that most people will learn not to do that in the coming months.
 
Last edited:
Nov 7, 2017
5,084
"Normal" as in pre COVID is going to be a while like Fall 2022

"Like normal" is probably going to be after summer. Socially distant outdoor activities, travel without quarantine and vaccine verification, being able to see other people outside of your household without feeling that you might get the rona/pass it on to others, etc will def happen
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
Unless the virus changes and vaccinations no longer work.

There is your reason and why having the virus run rampant is such a bad idea.
But is this really avoidable in the US? Even with our measures in place it's still spreading and mutating in the US and there's still the entire rest of the world to contend with as well. Covid-19 isn't going away, it is going to mutate and that's all there is to it. If we all pulled a New Zealand or whatever it'd be a different story but Europe's not pulling it off, we're not pulling it off and you can bet most of the other nations aren't pulling it off, I fail to see how we can realistically stop it now
 
Nov 7, 2017
5,084
If everyone is vaccinated no reason things can't be normal by end of this year.
The good thing is that everyone doesn't have to be vaccinated for things to start opening up slowly and safely again.

I would trust Fauci's predictions more than some posters in this thread. He seemed to be spot on in regards to having a vaccine at the end of 2020
 

Deleted member 4461

User Requested Account Deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
Any prediction that is a year or years beyond what experts estimate is pessimistic. Pretty much by definition.
 

NewErakid

Member
Jan 17, 2018
1,089
The good thing is that everyone doesn't have to be vaccinated for things to start opening up slowly and safely again.

I would trust Fauci's predictions more than some posters in this thread. He seemed to be spot on in regards to having a vaccine at the end of 2020
If there's one thing I've learned in my time here it's that posters here rarely have any clue what they are talking about so I agree.
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
Fauci is predicting everyone could get access to vaccines by April. U.S. is doing AMAZING with vaccinations right now.

The negative predictions are now actively ignoring the experts.

EDIT: Traveling the day after getting the vaccine is obviously not the best idea, but I'm hopeful that most people will learn not to do that in the coming months.

It looks like he is now saying May.

Any prediction that is a year or years beyond what experts estimate is pessimistic. Pretty much by definition.

Fauci isn't saying the US will go back to normal in May, is he?
 

Deleted member 4461

User Requested Account Deletion
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,010
It looks like he is now saying May.



Fauci isn't saying the US will go back to normal in May, is he?

Yeah, I just saw that - because of the J&J shortage.

But you missed the point - 2023 is pessimistic no matter how you slice it. He hasn't changed his prediction from end of 2021 - what pushes that back by a WHOLE TWO YEARS?
 

Wackamole

Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,937
I don't get it. What do you want some of us to say? Let's just be realistic. We're not there yet.

That isn't being pessimistic.
No we're not there yet. But when i'm being realistic, i can't see this going on for longer than summer. People will simply go back to normal unless death stops them. Not just in the USA. People can't do it anymore. I see it all around me and everywhere on tv and social media. So they better hurry up with these vaccines.

That's not something i want (very little changed for me during this pandemic and i could easily do this one more year), but it's what i think will happen. People are on their absolute last drops of patience, it seems.
 

Armadilo

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,877
But also people are forgetting about J&J vaccine which just is one vaccine total, it might be over by the end of Summer.

Give the old the two shot vaccine and everybody else just the J&J Vaccine
 

SpankyDoodle

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,082
It's weird to read people talking about a once-in-a-century global pandemic giving a fuck about weather people have "had enough" or what color states they're in.

It'll be over when it's over. It could have been over a while ago, but humanity proved beyond any doubt that they could not give a shit how many people die if it means inconveniencing their lives even the slightest bit. Something like normal will probably be 2022 and we'll have to drag people kicking and screaming to get there - and that's not accounting for any unforeseen mutations, secondary stages to Covid in people who already caught it, etc. You can't go "but the economy, but people are tired of it" and strong arm a pandemic. We literally just lived through what happens when you try that and it was a disaster that surpassed all the worst case scenario predictions.
 

Deleted member 21709

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
23,310
Yeah, I just saw that - because of the J&J shortage.

But you missed the point - 2023 is pessimistic no matter how you slice it. He hasn't changed his prediction from end of 2021 - what pushes that back by a WHOLE TWO YEARS?

Like I said, by 'normal' I assume a world where the general public is not actively faced with COVID on a day to day basis.

I think 2021 will be the world getting up to speed with vaccination distributions, and 2022 will be society slowly going back to how things used to be (with hopefully some new measures and precautions in place).

2023 to be back to 'normal' doesn't seem pessimistic to me. Pessimistic is dealing with this shit five or ten years from now.

There's nothing wrong with some people being more cautious and reserved with their expectations. We've all dealt with this differently. I'm not cursing anything or taking anything away from you - and I hope for the best.

It's weird to read people talking about a once-in-a-century global pandemic giving a fuck about weather people have "had enough" or what color states they're in.

It'll be over when it's over. It could have been over a while ago, but humanity proved beyond any doubt that they could not give a shit how many people die if it means inconveniencing their lives even the slightest bit. Something like normal will probably be 2022 and we'll have to drag people kicking and screaming to get there - and that's not accounting for any unforeseen mutations, secondary stages to Covid in people who already caught it, etc. You can't go "but the economy, but people are tired of it" and strong arm a pandemic. We literally just lived through what happens when you try that and it was a disaster that surpassed all the worst case scenario predictions.

Agreed, the way the first 9 months of the pandemic were handled were... traumatizing. All those false starts and stops. That 'optimism' if you can call it that, was far more damaging than any 'pessimistic' outlook ever was.
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,978
It's weird to read people talking about a once-in-a-century global pandemic giving a fuck about weather people have "had enough" or what color states they're in.

It'll be over when it's over. It could have been over a while ago, but humanity proved beyond any doubt that they could not give a shit how many people die if it means inconveniencing their lives even the slightest bit. Something like normal will probably be 2022 and we'll have to drag people kicking and screaming to get there - and that's not accounting for any unforeseen mutations, secondary stages to Covid in people who already caught it, etc. You can't go "but the economy, but people are tired of it" and strong arm a pandemic. We literally just lived through what happens when you try that and it was a disaster that surpassed all the worst case scenario predictions.
I don't even get what you're saying. Covid-19 existing is going to be the new normal and probably this year we'll start treating it like the flu and we'll operate as normal. Will it be just like the old normal? Of course not because there'll be a new permanent virus going around year after year, someone who's job it'll be to update the vaccine list each year, another vaccination for you to get each year. How are we going to drag people kicking or screaming to "normal" in 2022? What does that even mean? Forced vaccinations? Going to have the police kill unvaccinated people like a traffic stop? I don't see how 2022 looks any different than late 2021. I don't see how you open with people saying they don't give a shit about human life and then go on to say we're going to keep things up for another 2 years almost.
 
Oct 30, 2017
1,720
I'm quite optimistic tbh.

Napkin math:

USA has 18.45 million recovered people plus 9.4 million active cases (most of them will survive).

So we're looking at 27.45 million people with natural immunity (probably more as not every case got tracked) and 40.5 million who received their first dose.

Therefore, there are already ~68 million people with some form of immunity, that's 20% of the population as of today.


Average for vaccines is 1.7 million shots per day, if the USA keeps this pace, they could be in a good position by summer already. That's another 150 million shots in the next three months (if the pace stays the same at least).
 

SpankyDoodle

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,082
I don't even get what you're saying. Covid-19 existing is going to be the new normal and probably this year we'll start treating it like the flu and we'll operate as normal. Will it be just like the old normal? Of course not because there'll be a new permanent virus going around year after year, someone who's job it'll be to update the vaccine list each year, another vaccination for you to get each year. How are we going to drag people kicking or screaming to "normal" in 2022? What does that even mean? Forced vaccinations? Going to have the police kill unvaccinated people like a traffic stop? I don't see how 2022 looks any different than late 2021. I don't see how you open with people saying they don't give a shit about human life and then go on to say we're going to keep things up for another 2 years almost.

inguef didn't seem to have any problem understanding what I was saying without inventing weird shit like forced vaccinations or police murders, the fuck is wrong with you? Kicking and screaming means it'll take until 2022, if we're lucky, in spite of and due to all the brain dead mother fuckers who won't wear masks, social distance, get vaccinated, etc. Were it not for them, it would be back to "normal" a lot sooner - judging by other countries who gave a fuck we could have even been there already.

And time frames mean jack fucking shit to a virus - they aren't gonna stop when you tap your watch and go "Ok that's more than enough, people need to pay their rent you know". And 2022, even summer 2022, is not "2 years almost" from now. 2022 is in 10 months.
 

Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,111
This is def a case where Biden is lowballing to prevent major disappointments but the actuality is the US will be past whatever the fuck we've been going through long before Christmas.

Even now with a small chunk of vaccinations COVID cases nationwide are plummeting and it's likely not gonna rise up to the degrees we've had for the past summer and as unfortunate as it ended up being the mass infections we've suffered the past winter likely gave us a decent chunk of herd immunity that vaccinations will be able to get through especially at the current pace.

There will be a point where like is 80-90% normal and we might be having a couple thousand cases and a small handful of deaths happening and that will be the level that people will just shrug and move on. Especially with the impact mainly being mild symptoms for people who have already acquired immunity whether it be natural or vaccinated. When that happens keeping restrictions will be a lot more contentious especially as comparisons to how we handle the flu will be made and not be as callous as it was a year ago.

After Summer we'll likely have in person schooling and then we'd for sure be 95% normal barring mask recommendations. While this is close to Biden's projections normalization will for sure be a process we'd be starting much sooner than Christmas 2021.
 

TolerLive

Senior Lighting Artist
Verified
Nov 15, 2017
1,858
Redmond, WA
Guys, the idea that things could potentially not be normal until 2023 gives me sever anxiety. I've been living alone since March of last year. I need things to be normal again before then, i cant do it. :(
 

Metto

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,111
Guys, the idea that things could potentially not be normal until 2023 gives me sever anxiety. I've been living alone since March of last year. I need things to be normal again before then, i cant do it. :(
Anyone saying we won't have normalcy until 2023 is completely full of shit and should be ignored. We'll be there much sooner but expect it to be a process throughout the year.

We'll likely have the Virus roaming around for a while but at a much much reduced rate than in 2020. We've lived with other weird respiratory viruses and in due time COVID will be no exception
 

bye

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,424
Phoenix, AZ
If everyone is vaccinated no reason things can't be normal by end of this year.

he's being very cautious and intentionally setting low goalposts with this virus. Same reason he said "100m vaccinated in 100 days", when we were already vaccinating near a million a day at that point. And you're right, not even pessimists are talking about 2023.
 

JigglesBunny

Prophet of Truth
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
31,135
Chicago
The largest barriers preventing America from getting "back to normal" are Americans.

Person A thinks COVID is "just the common cold." Person B went out to a party last week. Person C thinks vaccines are a front for microchipping US citizens. Person D claims vaccines have horrific side effects. Person E thinks COVID isn't real and is merely a hoax used by the government to spread FUD. There are problematic people for each letter of the alphabet and beyond.

Unless someone starts putting boot to ass and legally mandates lockdown procedures, masks and there are understandable and swift punishments for ignoring those mandates, we're going to be going in circles for another year at best; that's not even diving into the brainwashed conspiracy nuts and anti-vaxxers, though that Venn diagram is just a circle.

We have vaccines. We know that social distancing, masks and careful attention paid to hygiene are the tickets to slowing the spread until everyone can get those vaccines. People just don't fucking care, and that's why we're staring down another year or two of this nightmare.
 

Deleted member 1698

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,254
But is this really avoidable in the US? Even with our measures in place it's still spreading and mutating in the US and there's still the entire rest of the world to contend with as well. Covid-19 isn't going away, it is going to mutate and that's all there is to it. If we all pulled a New Zealand or whatever it'd be a different story but Europe's not pulling it off, we're not pulling it off and you can bet most of the other nations aren't pulling it off, I fail to see how we can realistically stop it now

I doubt it, which is why the virus will be a problem for a long time yet.
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
10,518
Chicagoland
I'll bet that Sony releases the PlayStation 6 console before the United States of America is back to normal.

First, PS6 release date comes and goes. The consoles are already sold out of preorders and Day-1 supply of non-pre ordered consoles,
"in the wild" stock of PS6 (and the new Xbox consoles) is ... They're all avalable but go fast, become scarce within 24-48 hours as usual with new console hardware.

By then, we begin to see normal on the horizon again within the next 12-18 months.

It's now Thanksgiving Day, USA, the last Thursday of November, 2027.
 

metal

Banned
Nov 26, 2020
1,251
Depends on what you define as normal. As soon as my family is vaccinated I'm throwing parties for friends and family who are also vaccinated. Instead of Covid parties they will be Vaccine parties lol.

Will also start going to restaurants and stuff again, but will probably still avoid big events like concerts and sporting events :(
 

Psychotext

Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,706
I was supposed to be flying to the US in April, but obviously that's not happening now. Was going to try and re-schedule for July but that still feels like it would be pretty iffy.

I have a MTB race in Austin in November, and I'm hoping that's going to be reasonably likely.
 

Bigwombat

Banned
Nov 30, 2018
3,416
I'm super nervous that these new variants are going to become the more dominant strain.

Either way I think normal is further off than this up coming holiday season. I'd say summer 2022 at the earliest. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic but I know lots of people who are over the pandemic and traveling out of state for school vacations this week.

Just started working at a school and parents are lying thru their teeth about self quarantining after travel. This mentality is what is going to keep the pandemic alive in my mind
 

UnderSiege

Member
Mar 5, 2019
2,693
Yeah, he's saying Christmas 2021. Christmas 2022 would be insane. That's simply not going to work at all.
 

kmfdmpig

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
19,375
The vaccine rollout is going well and continuing to ramp up. Cases are starting to drop dramatically. I think we will be in good shape in late summer/early fall. There will, of course be some cases still, but not at a national emergency level.
 

Deleted member 1698

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,254
If the vaccine is available, open this shit up, it would be beyond embarrassing to keep everything closed for people that refuse to take the vaccine. Those that want to will get it, everybody else well you can't force them.

Then the virus spreads, mutates and everyone who just got vaccinated is vulerable again, back to square one. You either do this properly or you don't bother.

To going back to 'normal'? That seems reasonable, not pessimistic. Pessimistic would be the general public having to actively deal with COVID for the next ten years.

To be fair, if it gets to the point where everyone is fearful of everyone else, lots of people are needlessly dieing and nothing is being done about it? Well that is more or less BAU.
 

Netherscourge

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,932
We don't even have a vaccine for kids under 16 yet.

This will stay in circulation until there is 100% vaccine coverage for everyone, available year-round, for all ages, and a ready supply that can keep providing people shots every 6 to 10 months to keep up their antibodies. (Or however long these vaccines last)
 

CesareNorrez

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,522
Normal is relative and it's weird that people are talking past each other on this.

Normal, as what we were like before the pandemic, may not happen for a long time. I expect a large chunk of the population will continue wearing masks for years to come. I know I plan to with each new flu season. I'd be extremely comfortable wearing one whenever I go to a public indoor space for years to come. People will probably look at me like I'm not normal.

But, I suspect this summer most people will be doing all the things they normally do, hopefully just with the added public health elements of masking and sanitizing when out in public and a less than normal amount of capacity.
 

Hollywood Duo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,995
If he actually meant Christmas 2022 he might as well resign now because he's getting impeached in January 2023 by the blood red congress
 

Pravus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
438
I know we keep using the word "normal" but I don't see myself going out in public without a mask. Ever. Maybe if we're able to get a handle on the variations...

Not trying to be pessimistic; living in Florida I see fewer and fewer people wearing masks every week. If we do go back to normal, it'll be at the mercy of the virus.
 
Oct 27, 2017
3,050
Normal is relative and it's weird that people are talking past each other on this.

Normal, as what we were like before the pandemic, may not happen for a long time. I expect a large chunk of the population will continue wearing masks for years to come. I know I plan to with each new flu season. I'd be extremely comfortable wearing one whenever I go to a public indoor space for years to come. People will probably look at me like I'm not normal.

But, I suspect this summer most people will be doing all the things they normally do, hopefully just with the added public health elements of masking and sanitizing when out in public and a less than normal amount of capacity.


The best answer wouldve been "we're not" but there'd be riots in the streets for saying the truth

Americans in general just need to stop thinking about "going back" to things, it just causes problems
 
Dec 12, 2017
4,652
Do some of you guys realize that states are already starting to reopen? Even the ones that actually instituted a lockdown?

Once the most vulnerable population gets vaccinated and hospitalizations and deaths plummet there will be way too much socioeconomic and political pressure to keep these restrictions.