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ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,545
I read power to save the word and even though its from 2007 it still makes a great case for nuclear energy.

Its frustrating that none of the favorites running support building new reactors, the person running solely on climate change is strictly against them, most candidates give very unspecific answers like "exploring new technology" or renewables which are great but cant power our entire grid without huge advancements, one even brought up fusion which has been 20 years away for the last 70 years.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
I read power to save the word and even though its from 2007 it still makes a great case for nuclear energy.

Its frustrating that none of the favorites running support building new reactors, the person running solely on climate change is strictly against them, most candidates give very unspecific answers like "exploring new technology" or renewables which are great but cant power our entire grid without huge advancements, one even brought up fusion which has been 20 years away for the last 70 years.

What's so great about the case for nuclear? I'll say it again and again: nuclear is too expensive!* And renewables CAN power the entire grid, especially in a country the sheer size (and relatively low population density) as the USA. Even assuming ZERO advancements.

* See for example: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.670581.de/dwr-19-30-1.pdf
 

Menaged

Member
Oct 29, 2017
568
Have a question regarding metal straws and bottles.
At what point do they make good on their investment.

I'm asking since I know producing them is more expensive carbon wise compared to plastic. So, how many plastic bottles for example, are equal to a metal one in terms of emissions?

Of course there's the "waste" issue as well against plastic, but I'm still curios.

Thanks
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,545
What's so great about the case for nuclear? I'll say it again and again: nuclear is too expensive!* And renewables CAN power the entire grid, especially in a country the sheer size (and relatively low population density) as the USA. Even assuming ZERO advancements.

* See for example: https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.670581.de/dwr-19-30-1.pdf

Just to be clear, i acknowledge that affordability is important and will determine what kinds of energy we use, its just that i dont think anyones going to care about profit margins if human civilization has been destroyed by climate change.

If we can power the grid with renewables then thats perfect, i just dont want to put our hopes on theoretical tech when we already have nuclear plants that can do it.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Just to be clear, i acknowledge that affordability is important and will determine what kinds of energy we use, its just that i dont think anyones going to care about profit margins if human civilization has been destroyed by climate change.

If we can power the grid with renewables then thats perfect, i just dont want to put our hopes on theoretical tech when we already have nuclear plants that can do it.

Well. Renewables can power the grid and they are readily available. And cheaper than nuclear. No theoretical tech needed.
 

OgTheEnigma

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,803
Liverpool
Well. Renewables can power the grid and they are readily available. And cheaper than nuclear. No theoretical tech needed.
Both overloading and underloading the grid is still the main issue for renewables, when it makes up a high proportion of generation. We still don't have good options for large scale energy storage; lots of batteries are expensive and lose capacity after a few years. There's other options like hydro-pumped storage, however this is very location dependent and still fairly expensive.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,545
When i look it up online most sites are hoping for renewables to be able to power the grid by 2050, i assume they're taking into account advancements in renewable tech, where are you reading that renewables are capable of doing it right now?
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Both overloading and underloading the grid is still the main issue for renewables, when it makes up a high proportion of generation. We still don't have good options for large scale energy storage; lots of batteries are expensive and lose capacity after a few years. There's other options like hydro-pumped storage, however this is very location dependent and still fairly expensive.


(if link does not get you to week 11, please choose week 11 on the left side)

Germany quite often by now has situations where renewables make up a high proportion of generation. Yet... zero blackouts, it just... works. I'm wondering how these Germans do it? That's with still quite a lot of coal in the mix, too, which is not exactly ideal (i.e. gas would be much easier to handle).


When i look it up online most sites are hoping for renewables to be able to power the grid by 2050, i assume they're taking into account advancements in renewable tech, where are you reading that renewables are capable of doing it right now?

Renewables are
a) Readily available
b) Cheap

That's all you need. Advancements in renewables (i.e. wind and PV) are by now just higher efficiency and cost reductions).
 

Copper

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
666

(if link does not get you to week 11, please choose week 11 on the left side)

Germany quite often by now has situations where renewables make up a high proportion of generation. Yet... zero blackouts, it just... works. I'm wondering how these Germans do it? That's with still quite a lot of coal in the mix, too, which is not exactly ideal (i.e. gas would be much easier to handle).




Renewables are
a) Readily available
b) Cheap

That's all you need. Advancements in renewables (i.e. wind and PV) are by now just higher efficiency and cost reductions).

Germany do it by importing a lot. They're using the Continental grid as a storage system. When seen that way, their intermittent percentages are nowhere problematic as they have norway hydro, France nuclear (France still being the Major exporter in the EU), and Poland's coal. Their variability is still a blip, especially when u consider that RE Is more variable in low season (aka Winter solar, Summer Wind) when their output plummet anyway and isn't significant anymore (solar being 1/10 or 1/50 of its Summer output isn't that relevant, it's still a blip either way).

Renewables are currently dumping their externailities on fossils, which is a good thing because fossils are much more incentivized in other ways and are causing climate catastrophe, but it's also causing a lot of distortion in the Energy market which Will make It worse in the long run. Solar in most Europe make no sense, It has abysmal capacity factors and has yoo High seasonality to be more than a blip on generation. Solar in Morocco /northern Africa is solar we can build off a grid with, low seasonality, extremely predictable output (no clouds) but not One is planning it (Desertec went nowhere) because it simply make no sense to plan for long term under current standards for Energy auctions and because it would require an actual political effort from our countries, can't have public interests go against the private profit.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Germany do it by importing a lot. They're using the Continental grid as a storage system. When seen that way, their intermittent percentages are nowhere problematic as they have norway hydro, France nuclear (France still being the Major exporter in the EU), and Poland's coal. Their variability is still a blip, especially when u consider that RE Is more variable in low season (aka Winter solar, Summer Wind) when their output plummet anyway and isn't significant anymore (solar being 1/10 or 1/50 of its Summer output isn't that relevant, it's still a blip either way).

Renewables are currently dumping their externailities on fossils, which is a good thing because fossils are much more incentivized in other ways and are causing climate catastrophe, but it's also causing a lot of distortion in the Energy market which Will make It worse in the long run. Solar in most Europe make no sense, It has abysmal capacity factors and has yoo High seasonality to be more than a blip on generation. Solar in Morocco /northern Africa is solar we can build off a grid with, low seasonality, extremely predictable output (no clouds) but not One is planning it (Desertec went nowhere) because it simply make no sense to plan for long term under current standards for Energy auctions and because it would require an actual political effort from our countries, can't have public interests go against the private profit.

Germany is a net exporter of energy, just btw.

But yeah of course Germany also imports from time to time and exports from time to time, that's what a large integrated grid is there for - i.e. it's not a bug, it's a feature. The US grid should be much larger than the one in Europe, so it would be much easier there to do this.

I don't see why PV wouldn't make sense in Europe. Germany is a relatively "bad" place for PV, yet auctions show that you can bring in a profit at just ~4 Eurocents per kwh, i.e. dirt cheap.

Desertec etc. are great in theory, but pose immense political issues.

Btw. how is winter/summer "low season"? I don't quite get what you mean with that.
 

ArkhamFantasy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,545
With their current output and issues with storage i've seen serious concerns about whether there's even enough material to build all the wind and solar farms we would need. https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...mits-materials-dutch-ministry-infrastructure/

Nuclear plants can give us the time we need to improve renewable tech. I know it's expensive but climate change should be the #1 priority, if there's anything we should be subsidizing or taking a loss on, it's clean energy sources.

We also need to educate the public on the lack of danger that low levels of radiation present. People are terrified of reactors despite the fact that nobody on american soil has died from a nuclear plant accident, we've had 1 major nuclear accident in this country, basically a worst cast scenario with tons of operator error involved, and nobody died and very little radiation got out. The plants themselves are not putting out high levels of radiation, if a nuclear plant put out as much radiation as a coal plant it would be shut down on the spot, you could live right next door to a nuclear plant and you aren't going to see an increase in radiation, it's all contained in the waste.

We've regulated the nuclear industry to the point to where storage facilities weren't allowed to have as much radiation as the natural background radiation in washington DC. Low levels of radiation are not dangerous, depending on where you live you might receive hundreds of times the radiation as another american who lives on the other side of the country, radiation from x-rays is far higher than natural background radiation and most people accept x-rays as safe. Scientists found storage solutions that they could confidently conclude would be safe for the next 10,000 years and then judges told them it needs to be safe for 1,000,000 years, they're worried about hypothetical people a million years from now when we have real people suffering from fossil fuels right now.

We never should have stopped building nuclear plants, but if we started building them right now we could have them ready to go by 2028-2030, and they could give us the 20-30 years we need to make renewables the main supplier of energy, or however long they need. We still have another 50+ years worth of uranium, and basically unlimited thorium.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
With their current output and issues with storage i've seen serious concerns about whether there's even enough material to build all the wind and solar farms we would need. https://www.popularmechanics.com/sc...mits-materials-dutch-ministry-infrastructure/

Just quickly glancing through the article it doesn't exactly sound like this is an unsolvable issue. Just sth. that requires careful planning and foresight.


Nuclear plants can give us the time we need to improve renewable tech. I know it's expensive but climate change should be the #1 priority, if there's anything we should be subsidizing or taking a loss on, it's clean energy sources.

There are two reasons why nuclear isn't the solution:
1. It's expensive
2. It's a terrible complement for renewables. Or to say it more blunt: it's not a complement at all. If you built massive amounts of nuclear along with massive amounts of renewables, you are stuck in a situation where both technologies need a very well scalable counterpart, but have none.
 

OgTheEnigma

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,803
Liverpool

(if link does not get you to week 11, please choose week 11 on the left side)

Germany quite often by now has situations where renewables make up a high proportion of generation. Yet... zero blackouts, it just... works. I'm wondering how these Germans do it? That's with still quite a lot of coal in the mix, too, which is not exactly ideal (i.e. gas would be much easier to handle)
Yeah, going by those graphs, they're still using a lot of coal to make up for the variability of wind output. They do have some pumped storage, but evidently there's fairly limited capacity for that.

If they didn't have the non-renewable baseloads (and nuclear) then it would be even more difficult to manage the intermittency of wind power.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Yeah, going by those graphs, they're still using a lot of coal to make up for the variability of wind output. They do have some pumped storage, but evidently there's fairly limited capacity for that.

If they didn't have the non-renewable baseloads (and nuclear) then it would be even more difficult to manage the intermittency of wind power.

Is that really your point? That Germany isn't 100% renewable right now? That's not really news... fact of the matter is that Germany has been increasing its share of renewables from ~0 to almost 50% on average by now and the grid is still operating just fine.

Your original argument was: "Both overloading and underloading the grid is still the main issue for renewables, when it makes up a high proportion of generation." I just showed you that that issue doesn't seem to be particularly large in Germany, even in situations with 80%+ share of renewables. Btw. Germany is just my main example, because I know the above mentioned website with lots of data on it.

And btw. nuclear doesn't help at all to manage the intermittency. It hurts! It's pretty much always at ~7.5 kw, no matter what wind, PV, coal, gas etc. do.
 

OgTheEnigma

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,803
Liverpool
Is that really your point? That Germany isn't 100% renewable right now? That's not really news... fact of the matter is that Germany has been increasing its share of renewables from ~0 to almost 50% on average by now and the grid is still operating just fine.

Your original argument was: "Both overloading and underloading the grid is still the main issue for renewables, when it makes up a high proportion of generation." I just showed you that that issue doesn't seem to be particularly large in Germany, even in situations with 80%+ share of renewables. Btw. Germany is just my main example, because I know the above mentioned website with lots of data on it.

And btw. nuclear doesn't help at all to manage the intermittency. It hurts! It's pretty much always at ~7.5 kw, no matter what wind, PV, coal, gas etc. do.
My point is that the more variable renewable is used, the more measures must be taken to keep the grid power output stable relative to demand. Baseload nuclear is good, because it reduces the reliance on power sources which have an unpredictable output.

If the output of nuclear on it's own is less than the minimum demand, then ideally it should always be 100% utilised. Renewables and power storage should then be used for for the top end of energy output, for which consumer requirements will vary throughout the days and seasons.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Germany is not 50% renewable by any stretch, not even including biomass and hydro. On top of that, the only reason they've gotten their net generation higher is because they export during the day and import at troughs. Which is to say if other countries had the same grid mix, Germany's renewable generation would have nowhere to go. It's why, for example, california with its 50% renewable grid isn't technically so, they literally pay neighboring states to take their excess solar energy during the day, so they technically get more generation without storage, but the net of the entire systems involved is A LOT lower than 50%.

Also, you've got things reversed. A solar grid gets more stability from nuclear. A nuclear grid gets less stability from solar/wind. Order of most intermitency to least would be solar ---> solar/nuclear -----> nuclear. It's an easy concept to see, nuclear has less variability and thus requires less variable load. A renewable/nuclear grid is better than a solely renewable grid, numerous studies state as much, and I've cited them in other threads. The amount of the grid that would need to be stored/variable loaded for an all nuclear grid is about 20% (As France, for example), for solar it's 50-70%. And, let's be clear, cheapest way to store stuff on the grid is hydro storage, which isn't tech dependent so there's no chance for decreased cost of it, and is, by itself, more expensive per kwh than even the most over-budget nuclear plant and is very geologically locked, which brings batteries as a solution, which are many MANY times more expensive than the most over budget nuclear power plant per kwh.
 
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Copper

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
666
Germany is a net exporter of energy, just btw.

But yeah of course Germany also imports from time to time and exports from time to time, that's what a large integrated grid is there for - i.e. it's not a bug, it's a feature. The US grid should be much larger than the one in Europe, so it would be much easier there to do this.

I don't see why PV wouldn't make sense in Europe. Germany is a relatively "bad" place for PV, yet auctions show that you can bring in a profit at just ~4 Eurocents per kwh, i.e. dirt cheap.

Desertec etc. are great in theory, but pose immense political issues.

Btw. how is winter/summer "low season"? I don't quite get what you mean with that.

Wind has about 1/2 half the output in Summer in Europe (and is more erratic, see France June 2019 where It had 1 day at full output and 29 of almost complete calm), while solar has 1/4 (south europe) to 1/8 (London). In theoretical terms, you need an equivalent Fossil fuel plant that works in the Winter for each solar projects. In practical terms, this (still) doesn't happen because numbers are low, but what is happening is that fossil get "costlier" because their capacity factors goes down and down since the law prioritize intermittent when it's available. Since coal isn't good as ramping down/up to fuel (which is dirt cheap) , it's closing down almost everywhere, and gas is taking its place.
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
Also, to make it clear what the German export/import situation is:
kUYCSl0.png

Now, why is it that Germany is the smallest importer of electricity to France and France is the biggest exporter of electricity to Germany? Because Germany needs France's nuclear power to stabilize their grid at night. Germany's solar grid is mostly an export electricity scheme that only works because there are countries on fossil fuels that are available to export to during the day. They can slap another 30% of solar and it would just be export fodder and they'd still need to import massively at night. If the countries they export to had solar/wind in large quantities, their grid wouldn't function and their own solar/wind share would drop massively. What they're effectively doing is just building solar/wind for other countries, not actually increasing domestic share of renewables.

A more recent, though less visual, figure:
  1. France: US$4.2 billion (12.2% of total electricity exports)
  2. Germany: $3.8 billion (11%)
  3. Canada: $2.3 billion (6.6%)
  4. Switzerland: $2.1 billion (6.2%)
  5. Paraguay: $2.1 billion (6.2%)
  6. Sweden: $1.6 billion (4.6%)
  7. Czech Republic: $1.5 billion (4.5%)
  8. China: $1.5 billion (4.4%)
  9. Laos: $1.4 billion (4.1%)
  10. Austria: $1.1 billion (3.2%)
  11. Norway: $963.2 million (2.8%)
  12. Russia: $808.9 million (2.4%)
  13. Slovenia: $777.8 million (2.3%)
  14. Spain: $772.2 million (2.3%)
  15. Hungary: $754.6 million (2.2%)
That's a worldwide list. France is the biggest electricity importer in the WORLD.

I'm not denying that Germany is a net exporter, it is, but it's basically acting on a hybrid nuclear/solar grid to do so. ALSO, interesting figure fromt he same article
:
Among the top exporters, the fastest-growing electricity exporters since 2014 were: France (up 29.5%), Sweden (up 28.7%), Slovenia (up 21.4%) and Czech Republic (up 19.4%).

Those countries that posted declines in their exported electricity sales were led by: Germany (down -17.9%), Canada (down -15.2%), Switzerland (down -14.6%), Hungary (down -2.6%) and Paraguay (down -1.5%).
 
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Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Germany is not 50% renewable by any stretch, not even including biomass and hydro. On top of that, the only reason they've gotten their net generation higher is because they export during the day and import at troughs. Which is to say if other countries had the same grid mix, Germany's renewable generation would have nowhere to go. It's why, for example, california with its 50% renewable grid isn't technically so, they literally pay neighboring states to take their excess solar energy during the day, so they technically get more generation without storage, but the net of the entire systems involved is A LOT lower than 50%.

It is at 47.0% up until this point in 2019.


Could you link me to a source that shows Germany is exporting during the day and importing at throughs (= during the night?)?


Also, you've got things reversed. A solar grid gets more stability from nuclear. A nuclear grid gets less stability from solar/wind. Order of most intermitency to least would be solar ---> solar/nuclear -----> nuclear. It's an easy concept to see, nuclear has less variability and thus requires less variable load. A renewable/nuclear grid is better than a solely renewable grid, numerous studies state as much, and I've cited them in other threads. The amount of the grid that would need to be stored/variable loaded for an all nuclear grid is about 20% (As France, for example), for solar it's 50-70%. And, let's be clear, cheapest way to store stuff on the grid is hydro storage, which isn't tech dependent so there's no chance for decreased cost of it, and is, by itself, more expensive per kwh than even the most over-budget nuclear plant and is very geologically locked, which brings batteries as a solution, which are many MANY times more expensive than the most over budget nuclear power plant per kwh.

That assumes that demand is also not variable. But it is.

Show me how you can fulfill the following demand with nuclear:


(you can't, unless you built crazy amounts of nuclear)


Wind has about 1/2 half the output in Summer in Europe (and is more erratic, see France June 2019 where It had 1 day at full output and 29 of almost complete calm), while solar has 1/4 (south europe) to 1/8 (London). In theoretical terms, you need an equivalent Fossil fuel plant that works in the Winter for each solar projects. In practical terms, this (still) doesn't happen because numbers are low, but what is happening is that fossil get "costlier" because their capacity factors goes down and down since the law prioritize intermittent when it's available. Since coal isn't good as ramping down/up to fuel (which is dirt cheap) , it's closing down almost everywhere, and gas is taking its place.

Good. Gas is an ~okayish way to reduce emissions (vs. coal) and increase renewables. Battery and other technologies will improve over time and ultimately render gas useless (well, power 2 gas will most likely be used in the future).

Btw. you don't need an equivalent fossil fuel plant in winter to replace solar because it so happens that there is more wind in winter than in summer and for PV it's just the other way around. These two complement each other pretty nicely, atleast in Central Europe.

Please define "almost complete calm" (related to the French wind output in June).


My point is that the more variable renewable is used, the more measures must be taken to keep the grid power output stable relative to demand. Baseload nuclear is good, because it reduces the reliance on power sources which have an unpredictable output.

If the output of nuclear on it's own is less than the minimum demand, then ideally it should always be 100% utilised. Renewables and power storage should then be used for for the top end of energy output, for which consumer requirements will vary throughout the days and seasons.

Of course that's the case. Where is the issue? Are countries with large amounts of renewables into issues, say their grid collapsing? The way I see it is that these issues are mitigated by cross-boarder imports/exports, intelligent grid management and more storage (in the future).
 

Copper

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
666
Is that really your point? That Germany isn't 100% renewable right now? That's not really news... fact of the matter is that Germany has been increasing its share of renewables from ~0 to almost 50% on average by now and the grid is still operating just fine.

Your original argument was: "Both overloading and underloading the grid is still the main issue for renewables, when it makes up a high proportion of generation." I just showed you that that issue doesn't seem to be particularly large in Germany, even in situations with 80%+ share of renewables. Btw. Germany is just my main example, because I know the above mentioned website with lots of data on it.

And btw. nuclear doesn't help at all to manage the intermittency. It hurts! It's pretty much always at ~7.5 kw, no matter what wind, PV, coal, gas etc. do.

Nuclear can be varied by about 1% output per minute with Gray rods, for a minimum of 40% nominal output. See France generation charts for this for example.

Also, a 30% or so baseload help the grid no matter what, because your variable output require far, far less storage than otherwise. In fact, a grid with 20% nuclear , 10% hydro ( the current european grid is actually 18% nuclear and 8% hydro iirc) 60 Wind and 40 solar (we're overbuilding by 20% or so, and solar is supposed desertic quality) is "easily" doable by current storage technology costs with about 10h needed or so , plus some gas turbine backups in rare events. Remove that 20% baseload and suddendly we're talking about weeks of storage , which are not doable by any projected technology anytime soon, and no overbuild can cover that. Another possibility is massively overbuilding and then have processes than can be turned up and down quickly, aka demand follow instead of load follow, but then you're utilizing a LOT of land, since renewables are very low power dense. Desalinization could be one of those process ( and predictions put enormous demand for fresh water in the 2050).
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220

Considering the variability in wind/solar depending on the month, that's incredibly misleading and not even accurate to Germany's own data for 2019:
fig3-share-energy-sources-gross-german-power-production-2018.png


www.cleanenergywire.org

Germany’s energy consumption and power mix in charts

Key facts on the status of Germany’s energy mix, as well as developments in energy and power production and usage since 1990 - charts and data links.

That assumes that demand is also not variable. But it is.

Show me how you can fulfill the following demand with nuclear:


(you can't, unless you built crazy amounts of nuclear)

It does not assume constant demand. If you assumed constant demand then nuclear could easily replace 100% of the grid. There's this place called France that exists for reference. And, really, you wouldn't have to build that many nuclear power plants to replace the grid. Not to mention that nuclear is capable of variability based on seasonal demand, it's just not efficient at being a constant variable load. Solar/wind is literally roll a dice on any given day.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Nuclear can be varied by about 1% output per minute with Gray rods, for a minimum of 40% nominal output. See France generation charts for this for example.

Also, a 30% or so baseload help the grid no matter what, because your variable output require far, far less storage than otherwise. In fact, a grid with 20% nuclear , 10% hydro ( the current european grid is actually 18% nuclear and 8% hydro iirc) 60 Wind and 40 solar (we're overbuilding by 20% or so, and solar is supposed desertic quality) is "easily" doable by current storage technology costs with about 10h needed or so , plus some gas turbine backups in rare events. Remove that 20% baseload and suddendly we're talking about weeks of storage , which are not doable by any projected technology anytime soon, and no overbuild can cover that. Another possibility is massively overbuilding and then have processes than can be turned up and down quickly, aka demand follow instead of load follow, but then you're utilizing a LOT of land, since renewables are very low power dense. Desalinization could be one of those process ( and predictions put enormous demand for fresh water in the 2050).

Power 2 Gas says hi.

All of this is assuming that grids stay the way they are btw. I.e. relatively limited amount of potential exports and imports between countries. What should happen though is that grids get connected much more heavily. E.g. Spain is currently producing more energy than it needs -> export to France which exports to other countries, which have a deficit. That way PV and wind get much less intermittent (i.e. it's incredibly unlikely that all of Europe will suddenly see ~0 wind.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Considering the variability in wind/solar depending on the month, that's incredibly misleading and not even accurate to Germany's own data for 2019:
fig3-share-energy-sources-gross-german-power-production-2018.png

The chart you posted is for the full year of 2018. It is also using gross production, instead of net, which imo is useless - i.e. wind and PV "only" need to cover net production, not gross (as their net is pretty much the same as their gross production).
 

Copper

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
666
Power 2 Gas says hi.

All of this is assuming that grids stay the way they are btw. I.e. relatively limited amount of potential exports and imports between countries. What should happen though is that grids get connected much more heavily. E.g. Spain is currently producing more energy than it needs -> export to France which exports to other countries, which have a deficit. That way PV and wind get much less intermittent (i.e. it's incredibly unlikely that all of Europe will suddenly see ~0 wind.

Do you have an idea of the energy economics of P2G? Do you know why people are still talking about ammonia, hydrogen, and methane as carriers and no one has actually decided which path to go? I'm not gonna go down this hole again. I

For what it's worth, this is France, June 2019:


Solar is relatively constant (while obviously 0 at night, which can be "fixed" by 4h storage and which solar uneconomical *today* at 20 c/KWh but ideally good enough , and presumably by 2025 or so at grid parity ). But wind is the real issue here. France has 16 GW of wind installed (nominal). Between 7 and 8 June, the output for wind spiked at 10 GW (and nuclear went down accordingly, see also how nuclear is working at about 60-70% of nominal output because solar summer means they can lower nuclear output), and the rest of the month was around 3 GW, with spikes at 6 and days of 0. That high a variability would require an equivalent 10 GW power of batteries and weeks of energy storage. Or you could build 40 GW nominal + 4 hour of batteries to have an average of a 10 GW output (france is about 45 GW iirc, so with napkins math, would need 160 GW nominal wind). But then the economy of that is terrible, and you start to have location problems as wind is location dependent and it isn't actually infinite and has a very low energy density in fact (less than 10W/Sqm, sure you're not "using the land" for other things, but that land is effectively taken for wind energy purpose, aka u can't overbuild wind on top of already existing wind turbines).

Also, the "whole of europe not getting wind is unlikely" is unsubstantiated. Low pressure phenomenons are vast. You don't even need low pressure events to be continent wide, as southern europe wind potential is basically 0 in the grand scheme of things. EU wind ride on the northern sea region/scotland and off the coast of france to a lesser extent. The low pressure event just need to be in the northern sea and suddendly your energy output drop to 10-20% of nominal.
There is no great solar + wind spot like Western Australia or Morocco in Europe. You can see the wind charts:

 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
The chart you posted is for the full year of 2018. I know it reads "2019" on the top - click on the source. It is also using gross production, instead of net, which imo is useless - i.e. wind and PV "only" need to cover net production, not gross (as their net is pretty much the same as their gross production).

Then we'll use net:
k4iY4rQ.png

Wind+Solar 29%
Biomass 8.3%
Hydro: 3.2%

And the year over year increase in production?
Jj89bam.png


For the 2019 figures it's impossible to get a good handle of where they'll end up by the end of the year since wind/solar are seasonal. In fact, Germany has had years where it had its share of wind/solar go down despite more installed capacity because of how variable it is.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
Do you have an idea of the energy economics of P2G? Do you know why people are still talking about ammonia, hydrogen, and methane as carriers and no one has actually decided which path to go? I'm not gonna go down this hole again. I

For what it's worth, this is France, June 2019:


Solar is relatively constant (while obviously 0 at night, which can be "fixed" by 4h storage and would make solar cost about 20 c/KWh (Bloomberg estimates), which is still far more costlier than anything else, but worth in the scheme of climate change). But wind is the real issue here. France has 16 GW of wind installed (nominal). Between 7 and 8 June, the output for wind spiked at 10 GW (and nuclear went down accordingly), and the rest of the month was around 3 GW, with spikes at 6 and days of 0. That high a variability would require an equivalent 10 GW of batteries and weeks of storage. Or you should build 40 GW nominal + 4 hour of batteries to have an average of a 10 GW output (france is about 45 GW iirc, so with napkins math, would need 160 GW nominal wind). But then the economy of that is terrible, and you start to have location problems as wind is location dependent and it isn't actually infinite.

Also, the "whole of europe not getting wind is unlikely" is unsubstantiated. Low pressure phenomenons are vast. You don't even need low pressure events to be continent wide, as southern europe wind potential is basically 0 in the grand scheme of things. EU wind ride on the northern sea region and off the coast of france to a lesser extent. The low pressure event just need to be in the northern sea and suddendly your energy output drop to 10-20% of nominal.
There is no great solar + wind spot like Western Australia or Morocco in Europe. You can see the wind charts:


I'm really not quite sure what exactly I see there for the wind generation, but it's certainly not 1 day of wind and 29 days of nothing. But yeah difficult to see what actually happened with this kind of source.

"...southern europe wind potential is basically 0 in the grand scheme of things."

What!? I suppose Spain is part of Southern Europe, isn't it? If so: Spain was able to cover 19% of its energy demand with wind in 2018:

 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848

... this is still 2018 data, which I never mentioned.

This is what you quoted from me:

"It is at 47.0% up until this point in 2019."

And you said that's not true and quoted a 2018 figure. Yes, 2018 wasn't almost 50%. I never claimed it was. I said 2019 up until this point is 47%!
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
... this is still 2018 data, which I never mentioned.

This is what you quoted from me:

"It is at 47.0% up until this point in 2019."

And you said that's not true and quoted a 2018 figure. Yes, 2018 wasn't almost 50%. I never claimed it was. I said 2019 up until this point is 47%!
And I said using 2019 is MISLEADING because solar/wind output varies seasonally, so the year would not turn out to be 50% additionally the reason I brought up a graph of the year over year increase is because, even if you double the amount added in 2018 2019 is not going to have 7% of the grid more in solar/wind, but who knows, solar/wind is so variable year to year that that could happen even with no added capacity. NOT TO MENTION, when people say solar/wind can only be 30-40% of the grid without exporting during the day and importing at night or energy storage they mean... Solar+wind. Not solar+wind+biomass+hydro.
 

Copper

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
666
I'm really not quite sure what exactly I see there for the wind generation, but it's certainly not 1 day of wind and 29 days of nothing. But yeah difficult to see what actually happened with this kind of source.

"...southern europe wind potential is basically 0 in the grand scheme of things."

What!? I suppose Spain is part of Southern Europe, isn't it? If so: Spain was able to cover 19% of its energy demand with wind in 2018:

So of the two sources i showed you, you ignore one, and dismiss the other with no apparent reason. Why are you even posting? It's pretty clear you're not interested in actually discussing.

... this is still 2018 data, which I never mentioned.

This is what you quoted from me:

"It is at 47.0% up until this point in 2019."

And you said that's not true and quoted a 2018 figure. Yes, 2018 wasn't almost 50%. I never claimed it was. I said 2019 up until this point is 47%!

Also, are you seriously quoting 2019 figures for renewables and using them as a projection for the whole year? Are you aware of the fact that the best months for solar are march-August? Seriously. I could show you a chart of October-December and say that solar is useless. How is this not garbage intellectual disonesthy? Just don't engage in conversations you are not interested in.
 

Frankfurter

Member
Oct 27, 2017
848
So of the two sources i showed you, you ignore one, and dismiss the other with no apparent reason. Why are you even posting? It's pretty clear you're not interested in actually discussing.

I just showed you proof that wind has potential in Southern Europe, namely in Spain, yet I am the one not actually interested in discussing? I'm not dismissing your sources. I don't think they say what you think they say, though.



Also, are you seriously quoting 2019 figures for renewables and using them as a projection for the whole year? Are you aware of the fact that the best months for solar are march-August? Seriously. I could show you a chart of October-December and say that solar is useless. How is this not garbage intellectual disonesthy? Just don't engage in conversations you are not interested in.

I'd actually be willing to take a bet that the end result for 2019 will be between 44-50% (net), i.e. very close to the percentage that we have right now. At the end of 2019 solar will be down relative to now while wind will be up relative to now.

Up until the end of August 2018, renewable share was ~41%. At the end of 2018 that figure was 40.7%. 2017: 37.9% and 38.3% respectively.

And please behave yourself a little bit. Choosing Jan til mid August is not the same as choosing October-December. Again, I'm willing to take a bit that the final percentage will be very close to the percentage right now (see above).


I'm not only talking about solar, but about renewables overall! Again, solar will be down compared to now at the end of the year (relatively speaking), wind will be up (relatively speaking). This will ~average out (give or take).

Just btw. that chart is not applicable to Germany. Winter is much worse than what is shown here, while summer is better (relatively speaking; not sure what the units here mean and what "90% roof" means).
 

Steel

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
18,220
I'm not only talking about solar, but about renewables overall! Again, solar will be down compared to now at the end of the year (relatively speaking), wind will be up (relatively speaking). This will ~average out (give or take).

Just btw. that chart is not applicable to Germany. Winter is much worse than what is shown here, while summer is better (relatively speaking; not sure what the units here mean and what "90% roof" means).

The chart was for consumer solar, but the variance is the same regardless of commercial/industrial solar, though it does depend on location. As for whether the share of energy will remain that high?

It wouldn't be because of newly installed capacity if it does end up being the case:
Germany is likely to install a total of just 1-2 GW of onshore wind this year. This is significantly down on the past five years when Germany installed an average of 4.3 GW per year. This is well below what Germany needs to meet its own 65% renewable electricity target by 2030 and to deliver its share of the EU's 32% renewable energy target. Offshore wind will not fill the gap: Germany is due to build just 730 MW per year up to 2030.

WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson said: "Onshore wind energy in Germany is in deep trouble. The development of new wind farms has almost ground to a halt. The main problem is permitting – it's got much slower, more complex and there aren't enough civil servants to process the applications. It seriously undermines Germany's ability to meet its 2030 renewables target and contribute to the EU target. And it's affecting Germany's wind turbine industrial base. Half of Europe's 300,000 wind energy jobs are in Germany. But 10,000 have gone in Germany in the last five years. And this could get worse: there hasn't been a single turbine order recorded in Germany in Q1 this year.


Either case, I zoom in on wind/solar because biofuel and hydro would be available in any system and constitute variable load and steady base load situations. Wind/solar, however, are a different beast with a different problem.
 

signal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
40,183

Among the factors that appear to contribute to underestimation is the perceived need for consensus, or what we label univocality: the felt need to speak in a single voice. Many scientists worry that if disagreement is publicly aired, government officials will conflate differences of opinion with ignorance and use this as justification for inaction. Others worry that even if policy makers want to act, they will find it difficult to do so if scientists fail to send an unambiguous message. Therefore, they will actively seek to find their common ground and focus on areas of agreement; in some cases, they will only put forward conclusions on which they can all agree.

Cool cover though

ECaIam9WkAIJnO9
 

Feep

Lead Designer, Iridium Studios
Verified
Oct 25, 2017
4,596
I am hesitant to purchase a home in Los Angeles for a similar reason. I don't anticipate value dropping in the next eight to ten years, but in 2040? Um...
 

Fallout-NL

Member
Oct 30, 2017
6,700
I don't anticipate value dropping in the next eight to ten years, but in 2040? Um...

I truly couldn't be happier with my home. It's new (completed last year) and it has everything I could possibly want and I still feel like it's something I should get done within 4 years or so (selling).

I'm just deathly (and selfishly) afraid that more people will start to realize this is going to happen, which will cause values to tank (and my financial ruination by extension).

So why didn't I think of this before buying? For the simple reason that I've only recently started realizing how bad things are likely to get, and how quickly. I suspect that's also the reason why the Dutch government isn't openly discussing this yet. It'll tank the economy here.

Still it might not a bad thing that I bought the house. Crazily enough, prices have risen meteorically since we bought it...
 
OP
OP
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,536
OP
OP
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,536
Doing my little part today with the kids. Found these little trees (aren't they cute?) where they had no chance to survive / grow (border of the road or too close from other bigger trees). I will plant them in empty places in the little wood in my backyard.

jCNHMgX.jpg
 
OP
OP
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,536

signal

Member
Oct 28, 2017
40,183

The US is scrapping a ban on energy-inefficient light bulbs which was due to come in at the beginning of 2020.

The rule would have prohibited the sale of bulbs that do not reach a standard of efficiency, and could have seen an end to incandescent bulbs. Many countries have phased out older bulbs because they waste energy. But the US energy department said banning incandescent bulbs would be bad for consumers because of the higher cost of more efficient bulbs. The Department of Energy said it had withdrawn the ban because it was a misinterpretation of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act.
Specifically, the law stipulated that restrictions on bulbs could only be implemented when it was economically justified, Shaylyn Hynes, a spokeswoman for the Department of Energy, told the New York Times.

Activists say the government has come under pressure from manufacturers. "It makes zero sense to eliminate energy-saving light bulb standards that will save households money on electricity bills and cut climate change emissions," Appliance Standards Awareness Project executive director Andrew deLaski told the Washington Post.

💡
 

ccbfan

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,497
This topic reminds me so much of why Climate Change Politics are so much dick waving by first world countries.

Using electricity generated from coal in Poland doesn't make you "greener" because you yourself doesn't use coal. You're using coal as energy.

Same with electric cars. Just because the extremely pollutant materials/procedures to make a battery isn't done in your country doesn't make its less harmful. Electric cars are still much greener than gas cars just not as much if you bought a brand new electric car just to be green But countries don't car since statitistics wise they don't include the footprint of the making that car for the first country.

The goal of climate change should not be a national thing its an international thing. CO2 from machinery mining lithium in Chile is equally harmful to Europe. So much green initiatives are more transference of pollutant to poorer countries than actually decreasing pollution.
 
OP
OP
Pomerlaw

Pomerlaw

Erarboreal
Banned
Feb 25, 2018
8,536
This topic reminds me so much of why Climate Change Politics are so much dick waving by first world countries.

Using electricity generated from coal in Poland doesn't make you "greener" because you yourself doesn't use coal. You're using coal as energy.

Same with electric cars. Just because the extremely pollutant materials/procedures to make a battery isn't done in your country doesn't make its less harmful. Electric cars are still much greener than gas cars just not as much if you bought a brand new electric car just to be green But countries don't car since statitistics wise they don't include the footprint of the making that car for the first country.

The goal of climate change should not be a national thing its an international thing. CO2 from machinery mining lithium in Chile is equally harmful to Europe. So much green initiatives are more transference of pollutant to poorer countries than actually decreasing pollution.

Overall footprint of electric cars is still up for debate, but most recent studies include the footprint from the production of the car. Most agree that if you use clean energy to recharge, the overall footprint including production makes electric cars greener. As time goes by, electric cars advantage will only grow because the grid itself is being decarbonized, and battery production will get better and cleaner.
 

dabig2

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,116
Anyone read this Rolling Stones article from last week? It's a fantastic engaging read I must say:

As the mercury rises, people die. The homeless cook to death on hot sidewalks. Older folks, their bodies unable to cope with the metabolic stress of extreme heat, suffer heart attacks and strokes. Hikers collapse from dehydration. As the climate warms, heat waves are growing longer, hotter, and more frequent. Since the 1960s, the average number of annual heat waves in 50 major American cities has tripled. They are also becoming more deadly. Last year, there were 181 heat-related deaths in Arizona's Maricopa County, nearly three times the number from four years earlier. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, between 2004 and 2017, about a quarter of all weather-related deaths were caused by excessive heat, far more than other natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornadoes.
"Hurricane Katrina caused a cascading failure of urban infrastructure in New Orleans that no one really predicted," Chester explains. "Levees broke. People were stranded. Rescue operations failed. Extreme heat could lead to a similar cascading failure in Phoenix, exposing vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the region's infrastructure that are difficult to foresee."

In Chester's view, a Phoenix heat catastrophe begins with a blackout. It could be triggered any number of ways. During periods of extreme heat, power demand surges, straining the system. Inevitably, something will fail. A wildfire will knock out a power line. A substation will blow. A hacker might crash the grid. In 2011, a utility worker doing routine maintenance near Yuma knocked out a 500-kilovolt power line that shut off power to millions of people for up to 12 hours, including virtually the entire city of San Diego, causing economic losses of $100 million. A major blackout in Phoenix could easily cost much more, says Chester.

But it's not just about money. When the city goes dark, the order and convenience of modern life begin to fray. Without air conditioning, temperatures in homes and office buildings soar. (Ironically, new, energy-efficient buildings are tightly sealed, making them dangerous heat traps.) Traffic signals go out. Highways gridlock with people fleeing the city. Without power, gas pumps don't work, leaving vehicles stranded with empty tanks. Water pipes crack from the heat, and water pumps fail, leaving people scrounging for fresh water. Hospitals overflow with people suffering from heat exhaustion and heatstroke. If there are wildfires, the air will become hazy and difficult to breathe. If a blackout during extreme heat continues for long, rioting, looting, and arson could begin.
Extreme heat is the most direct, tangible, and deadly consequence of our hellbent consumption of fossil fuels. Rising carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere trap heat, which is fundamentally changing our climate system. "Think of the Earth's temperature as a bell curve," says Penn State climate scientist Michael Mann. "Climate change is shifting the bell curve toward the hotter end of the temperature scale, making extreme-heat events more likely."

As the temperature rises, ice sheets are melting, seas are rising, hurricanes are getting more intense, rainfall patterns are changing (witness the recent flooding in the Midwest). Drought and flooding inflict tremendous economic damage and create political chaos, but extreme heat is much more likely to kill you directly. The World Health Organization predicts heat stress linked to the climate crisis will cause 38,000 extra deaths a year worldwide between 2030 and 2050. A recent study published in Nature Climate Change found that by 2100, if emissions continue to grow, 74 percent of the world's population will be exposed to heat waves hot enough to kill. "The more warming you have, the more heat waves you have," says Michael Wehner, a scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. "The more heat waves you have, the more people die. It's a pretty simple equation."



We are all in for a hell of a ride. And even still, apathy reigns supreme as climate genocide broils on.
 

KeinPlanB

Alt account
Banned
Aug 6, 2019
105
Anyone read this Rolling Stones article from last week? It's a fantastic engaging read I must say:







We are all in for a hell of a ride. And even still, apathy reigns supreme as climate genocide broils on.
I believe humans can adapt and they will. Many will die, probably more will move, but I don't think we will be able to reverse the development anyway and need to cope.

People do adapt to more extreme conditions. Sure, the weaker will suffer, but it is our responsibility to act accordingly. Elderly people do die because they don't drink enough water, which can be fixed. Others die because they don't adapt and still overestimate their own fitness.

Mentioning these at all feels a little strange as the real casualties will be with poor that suffer from our lifestyle already. I just hope a change of concience to avoid the worst will also lead to less hardship for the weakest and poorest.
 
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