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Christopher Nolan’s ‘Tenet’ Delayed Indefinitely
- Thread starter Kolx
- Start date
true. but mostly because 20-40% of movie theatres might be gone by then.
Not so weird when previous Nolan movies have made more than 50% of their gross from Europe, Asia, and other territories. Plus, USA and Brazil are fucking up the most on the whole planet in terms of containing the virus, but the other countries who have been sensible seem eligible for theatre releases.
i feel like this is based on absolutely nothing
other than an outdated view of movie releases
trolls did incredibly well and who gives a shit about trolls. this is will be a crazy big movie no matter how they release it
Nolan may love the theatre experience but you guys are delusional if you think WB will even let him release it on VOD if he wanted to. If we went to the super low end and say they lost out on 50MM, who in their right mind would be ok with skipping theatres with that estimated loss? And it most likely will be much higher, sucks but theyll wait a long with every other major blockbuster
Wasn't Universal praising how much money they made releasing Trolls World Tour on a $19.99 VoD rental? A Nolan movie released VoD might not make as much as in theaters, but it's still gonna make bank.
So, the options are wait a year & release in theaters or loses hundreds of millions of dollars by releasing it VOD? This isn't Trolls World Tour or Scoob where the studio doesn't have a lot of riding on its success. This is a hundred million dollar blockbuster. They aren't making their money back on VOD.
If international theaters get it then the US will get it on PPV.
They aren't going to put out a movie that big and just leave the #1 or #2 market hanging out watching the bootlegs.
My thoughts. There is no way they release this in the EU and suspend the US release indefinitely. They'd lose the entire US box office. The result would be massively worse than releasing it as VOD in the US, and I can't see them doing that with a Nolan film given how much money is on the table (not to mention how the production staff would feel about it).
It seems like EU/Asia could get the film first but WB don't want to pull the trigger due to piracy concerns.
yeah it made more money in 3 weeks of vod than the original did in five months in theaters
A digital release now + theatrical re-release later won't come close to making the same kind of money a normal theatrical run would get. I'd think that everyone who worked so hard on making the film would want it to be seen by the most people possible.
Nolan's whole thing has always been wanting Tenet to be available to give theaters a shot in the arm after lockdowns have ended. The longer studios have to wait on showing the Tenets, the Black Widows, the Bonds, etc. the more their business is going to take a major existential hit. Who knows what the theater landscape will look like in 2021?
I'm sure WB wouldn't mind mitigating their 2020 losses somewhat with Tenet's box office gross too
But the "loss" is based off box office numbers before corona. If they even want to attempt to get those numbers it'll need to be pushed 1-2 years back
If anyone is gonna hold out for the theaters to open, it's Nolan. I wouldn't put it past Tarentino either.
More power to him. Hope it's good.
More power to him. Hope it's good.
The Trolls thing is a bit complicated
It's still impossible to argue that VOD releases will make you substantially less money than the traditional distribution stream.
They touted Trolls making $100m, which is fine for its budget but still lower than what the first Trolls made. You'll also notice that other than Trolls and 1 or 2 other things, most studios aren't talking up their VOD releases' rentals. For example, I don't think it's still been revealed what the new Judd Apatow made last month.
No doubt, but it's still money. And with social distancing and everything the way it is now, theater movies might not make as much as they used to anyways.
The era of the billion dollar movie may very well be dead, or at least delayed by a few years.
It could be Quibi's next killer app now that everyone's seen the golden arm
You were supposed to be the saviour of cinema, Christopher! Your subtle use of exposition and masterful dialogue just won't have the same je ne sais quoi coming out of my lowly LG flat screen.
Yeah for sure. The issue is once you release on VOD, there's no undoing that. Even a theatrical run that doesn't hit capacity will make them some extra money, since anyone who is going to wait for VOD will still Watch it on VOD. If they go straight to VOD, they'll never get any theatrical money (I mean maybe a theatrical rerelease, but that's negligible). I don't think they'll wait to release Tenet until theatres are 100% back to normal, but they'll never make their money back if they go straight to digital. Trolls was a "well let's release it and see what happens" type of investment, the stakes aren't high. Tenet isn't that, the cost of the film is too high, and the cost of keeping Nolan happy is too valuable
If they played it right, found a streaming service as a provider after 2 months on VOD, they could make a killing. It's not making studios any money sitting on a shelf, and theaters won't be coming back for a long time, if ever. Even post-vaccine, people are still going to be uncomfortable sitting in close quarters for long periods of time.
This movie cost like 800 million dollars to make y'all this shit would be delayed until 2025 before it gets a VOD release.
The problem is, Universal's last report is Trolls made $100 million in rentals. Which is already less than half of Tenet's production budget not accounting for the crazy amount they probably put into marketing already. That's an uphill climb to start. Then you factor in, a family of four rents the movie for $19.99 vs the same family of 4 goes to the theater & pays, conservatively, $9.99 for a matinee. That already $20.00 less dollars the film is getting. Then take into account people invite friends over to their house & they rent it. What if you invite 4 or 5 people over, that's even less revenue the movie is making because one charge of $19.99 vs x amount of people each paying for a ticket. It's juts not going to come close to what it will if they just wait & get theatrical revenue.
Anyone paying attention knew this was gonna be the case eventually. You look like a proper piece of shit trying to put it out at a time like this. Just absurd. Fuck off with the ego and make a shit ton doing VOD. Your precious industry will survive it.
People aren't even social distancing properly in the middle of the pandemic...
So improbable.
You really think Nolan would be dressed in rags in the post-apocalyptic wasteland? He'd be dressed in a three-piece suit.
I know a lot of people still are. The people who you're seeing in the news aren't representative of the entire population.
I mean, don't you think studios have already gone over this and crunched these numbers multiple times already? Some people here act like they just landed on this idea themselves, as if it hadn't already occurred to the studios lol. If Marvel isn't releasing Black Widow on VOD, and MGM isn't releasing No Time to Die on VOD, and Universal isn't releasing F9 on VOD, wouldn't you think they all independently determined they'd lose more than they'd gain from skipping theatrical distribution? I tend to think that if Hollywood believed they really could make a killing from dropping $200m blockbusters on VOD, then they'd be doing that!
This sounds like a good way to lose literally a billion dollars.
That's the thing people are discounting. Once theaters are getting new movies to show again, and it's safer to go and see them, what's the guarantee that these first movies out of the gate will make nearly as much as they would have under normal circumstances? People aren't gonna rush out to see them the way they did pre-pandemic.
WB (and frankly, other studios) should be looking at ways to maximize profits with the stuff they have now. Either look at VOD options, look at placing them into their respective streaming services, whatever you think works best. You look at how HBO Max is slipping to get a foothold, releasing a bigger movie on there would draw a lot of subs even if they're temporary. (Not saying release Tenet or WW84 there, but something close to those.)
I actually think its the other way round, the average person isn't that fussed. I'm from the UK though and not the US, so can only speak for here, but the streets were packed with people when pubs reopened. Tons of people would still be going to movies, live sports, gigs etc if they were open to them right now.
yeh, thats why you saw a few films like fast and furious get pushed a year, probably even longer tbh. studios are going to eat shit this year, probably next as well, but they cant risk it right now with the films they know will rake in 600-800MM. There is always a 5% it makes as much, if not more on VOD, but their eggheads are saying nope, theyre just going to follow the data even if its imperfect because no one knows.
personally id love for them to release it VOD, but it wont happen, theyll wait 1-2 years if needed.
Its weird seeing people get mad about how it could get released in the cinema in the Eu before the Usa, it happens with films all the time the other way around.
Def would say it would be wasted on VOD vs just not releasing it for awhile, its not like it wont exist in 6 months time
Def would say it would be wasted on VOD vs just not releasing it for awhile, its not like it wont exist in 6 months time