China's chief epidemiologist says coronavirus vaccine not 'cure-all'

[SilentPanda]

Wu Zunyou (吳尊友), chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CDC), on Friday (June 26) cautioned that a coronavirus vaccine might not be a "cure-all" solution to the pandemic — as many are anticipating.

In an interview with China Youth Daily, the senior medical expert pointed out that a vaccine is being seen as a solution, but that it might not be permanent. He added the more he learns about the unusual structure and high mutation rate of COVID-19, the less optimistic he feels about the situation.

Wu explained that both SARS and MERS are caused by novel coronaviruses, against which scientists have been unable to develop licensed vaccines. He said recent studies showed COVID-19 antibodies in recovered patients can plummet within two to three months, which suggests that vaccines designed to encourage antibodies may also be ineffective.

Despite his doubts, the CDC head said he remained hopeful that vaccines could prevent coronavirus from infecting people more than once. He also revealed that a COVID-19 vaccine may be produced by the end of this year or the start of next, reported CNA.

China's chief epidemiologist says coronavirus vaccine not 'cure-all' | Taiwan News | 2020-06-27 10:22:00

COVID-19 vaccines may be largely ineffective if antibodies last only two to three months | 2020-06-27 10:22:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

 

[Mendrox]

It's gonna be the new normal like the different flu types I guess.

 

[Deleted member 5359]

It's almost as if it's a global crisis that requires the combined scientific knowledge and resources of multiple nations working together to resolve instead of a bunch of petty squabbling

 

[Halbrand]

While antibody numbers may go down quickly IIRC immunity isn't just about antibodies, it's also about your immune system having a kind of memory.

 

[EloquentM]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

 

[BarryFishFinger]

It's gonna be the new normal like the different flu types I guess.

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This is what I'm assuming. We'll potentially end up with a number of strains of Covid, a similar number of varying vaccines and as with flu, predictions will be made each year which variant to focus on for vaccine production.

 

[Mivey]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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Basically anything published on the media about Sars-CoV-2 in the first few months were preliminary studies, which hadn't gone through peer reviews, and at best just reflected the understanding based on the few data points present back then. The more experience and information we collect, the clearer the picture gets, which can and will lead to different conclusions.

Science is a slow, imperfect and self-correcting process, not clairvoyance.

 

[Halbrand]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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I think this is still the case.

 

[Froli]

Annual shots huh?
I hope it's affordable.

 

[Mendrox]

Annual shots huh?
I hope it's affordable.

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I mean if it will be like the flu it will be for free for most countries.

 

[Bigjig]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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Yeah this is the first I've heard that it's quick to mutate, any recent studies back this up?

 

[Froli]

I mean if it will be like the flu it will be for free for most countries.

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That's good to hear

 

[Alcoremortis]

While antibody numbers may go down quickly IIRC immunity isn't just about antibodies, it's also about your immune system having a kind of memory.

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I'm guessing they know that. It's been ages since I took an immunology course, but I'm guessing that the plummeting antibody count might be indicative that the virus has mutated enough that the B-cells can't recognize antigens well enough to produce more antibodies after three months.

 

[Mendrox]

That's good to hear

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You are expected to get yearly flu shots so I don't know how that works in America but in Germany for the shots I never had to pay anything except if I wanted to take shots for the other types of the virus which they don't anticipate for that year.

You get your yearly shots right? This is something that everyone will have to do in the future so that we don't break out anymore like this.

 

[BasilZero]

The fact that there's another "permanent" virus like Influenza out there is just terrifying and heartbreaking simply because now not only people will need to worry about Influenza but COVID-19 year round....I hope they are wrong though...

 

[Rory]

I think this is still the case.

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Given it was said it most likely wont transfer to other species, and we face sick canines and felines, which suggests 3 (!) cross speciment transmission within 1 year (and was there not some talk about fish too?) it does mutate quite fast.

The goal of a virus usually is not killing its host. It wants to spread. So lets hope deadliness will drop.

 

[Psittacus]

This would a really bad and entirely preventable outcome

 

[MegaManTrigger]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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You can't count on preliminary information on novel viruses to remain as is forever, it's always changing. There's a new paper that found evidence of a mutation leading to the coronavirus having increased spike proteins (greater stability and higher infectibility), but the virus itself has not weakened. Some are analyzing if the mutation is to explain for the incredibly high # of cases in USA.

I think this is still the case.

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It's starting to not look like that is the case. Researchers found evidence of a gene that increases the flexibility and number of spike proteins on the outer layer, and no evidence of a weakened virus. So this could have dangerous implications now that infectibility and stability are increased.

Source: https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...2-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

 

[Luminish]

A few weeks ago, Fauci noted the common cold coronavirus we already know about only ever gives immunity of about 3-6 months and always less than a year. Doesn't mean it's definitely going to be like that, but it gives reason to suspect it might.

So I guess this new news suggests there's evidence backing this theory now.

 

[darkwing]

yeah I already accepted it will be seasonal like the flu, might as well be part of annual flu shots

 

[Deleted member 48991]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

 

[lesserpanda]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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As an Australian, a yearly flu shot is completely normal for us. So I can't see this being a bad thing.

 

[LinkStrikesBack]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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I can't see it being that much of a problem in developed countries with functioning healthcare systems. Well except for all the idiots going off in daft nonsense like bill gates wants to inject you with a chip.

Of course, that doesn't include America really, because insurers are definitely going to fight another jab yearly that they would be expected to cover.

 

[Leeness]

I feel like this has been the idea for a bit now? I'm down for yearly shots, though.

 

[Punjabi_Hitman]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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Welcome to science. Problem being ignorant public witnessing science take place and jumping to conclusions without actually understanding the scientific process at all. Sucks that the media is horrible at properly reporting the scientific process since it's all about the clickbait.

 

[Froli]

You get your yearly shots right? This is something that everyone will have to do in the future so that we don't break out anymore like this.

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I didn't get it before, was planning to back in January. And the ones in my area is out of stock back then
It seems to be only free for senior citizens here in the Philippines

 

[Froli]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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Wait, how is it a pain?? I have no experience with Flu shots

 

[Shodan14]

It's gonna be the new normal like the different flu types I guess.

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I guess China finally had a lasting impact on the world? What a legacy.

 

[Mendrox]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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What? It should be totally normal..where are you from? Here we even have a doctor come to work and give everyone the shots.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

You can't count on preliminary information on novel viruses to remain as is forever, it's always changing. There's a new paper that found evidence of a mutation leading to the coronavirus having increased spike proteins (greater stability and higher infectibility), but the virus itself has not weakened. Some are analyzing if the mutation is to explain for the incredibly high # of cases in USA.

It's starting to not look like that is the case. Researchers found evidence of a gene that increases the flexibility and number of spike proteins on the outer layer, and no evidence of a weakened virus. So this could have dangerous implications now that infectibility and stability are increased.

Source: https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...2-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

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Some are saying is code for bullshit.

 

[mugurumakensei]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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that was never my understanding outside of the hardcore defenders of Sweden's response and saying herd immunity. It was always the case that it had a high mutation rate. The only thing we don't know definitively is if it can mutate as fast as the flu which as far as I know even with this the answers still no but it may still mean we need to create a vaccine each year.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

might not be a "cure-all" solution

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Nobody is expecting this, selective quote marks is suspicious for a quote or commentary

might not be permanent

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Wu explained that both SARS and MERS are caused by novel coronaviruses, against which scientists have been unable to develop licensed vaccines.

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That's because they largely went away. that comma has me questioning if he offered that last part up or the author of the article did.

can plummet within two to three months, which suggests that vaccines designed to encourage antibodies may also be ineffective

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Lot of hedging going on with the authors.

He stressed that if recovered patients were not immune to COVID-19, then he would not expect vaccines to make much of a difference, reported ETtoday.

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Have we heard more than random anecdote that people are getting reinfected. Surely there'd be thousands of cases by now

H1N1 wiped out a large part of the world in 1918, it didn't do the same in 2009. Novel viruses emerge and become more benign, or immunity builds, not by eliminating the illness but make symptoms mild (older people did well in 1918 because there had been an earlier flu), cross immunity does the same thing with mutations, etc, etc.This isn't the end of the world, we're not going to be social distancing forever

I'd love to hear him actually speak because this reads like a lot of selective quoting or possibly answers to a q and a where he, like a good scientist should, hedges when journalists try to ask questions about something they know nothing to get an article and responses and despair that fill this thread.

people really need to learn out to read journalistic articles critically and understand certain tropes they use

 

[Deleted member 8752]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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You're wrong. We are lucky if this is the worst of it.

Get your flu shots people.

 

[Luminish]

You can't count on preliminary information on novel viruses to remain as is forever, it's always changing. There's a new paper that found evidence of a mutation leading to the coronavirus having increased spike proteins (greater stability and higher infectibility), but the virus itself has not weakened. Some are analyzing if the mutation is to explain for the incredibly high # of cases in USA.



It's starting to not look like that is the case. Researchers found evidence of a gene that increases the flexibility and number of spike proteins on the outer layer, and no evidence of a weakened virus. So this could have dangerous implications now that infectibility and stability are increased.

Source: https://www.scripps.edu/news-and-ev...2-choe-farzan-coronavirus-spike-mutation.html

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I'm no expert, but it sounds like we did learn early on that it has genome-proofreading capabilities, which definitionally makes it mutate slower than viruses without that type of protein, like HIV. But I think that proofreading basically has to be imperfect and allow some mutations or the virus would never survive in the first place. Question is how imperfect and in what ways.

I guess if it still allows for the spike proteins to mutate like mad, then all these early vaccines targeting the spike protein won't work very long, but it's far from a complete defeat if it turns out other key parts of the virus don't mutate as much.

But I'm sure this chinese CDC head is very aware of the many potential points of attack too and I guess he must be seeing troubling mutations across the board to make this statement.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

I thought in the beginning they said it didn't mutate much.

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High mutation rate doesn't mean that it mutates into a brand new virus there could be no noticeable difference. Literally every reproduction that isn't an exact copy is a "mutation." Every time there's mitosis there's mutations. All mutation means that there is a change in the sequencing of dna. Scientists can look at dna and see frequent changes in dna sequences that do nothing to the viruses overall behavior and structure. but this is a lot different than what we think of is a complete transformation into a new virus.

 

[Joni]

Wu explained that both SARS and MERS are caused by novel coronaviruses, against which scientists have been unable to develop licensed vaccines.

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Yet we know we were really close to SARS and MERS vaccines. Turns out there is very little reason for companies to invest millions in final testing when the viruses themselves were gone. But that has very little to do with the capability of the development.

 

[Devilgunman]

Well, I hope he is wrong. Getting a yearly flu shot would be a pain.

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Are you one of those people who don't get annual flu shot? My work at a medical center has been mandating flu shot for many years now.

 

[Luminish]

Nobody is expecting this, selective quote marks is suspicious for a quote or commentary




That's because they largely went away. that comma has me questioning if he offered that last part up or the author of the article did.



Lot of hedging going on with the authors.


Have we heard more than random anecdote that people are getting reinfected. Surely there'd be thousands of cases by now

H1N1 wiped out a large part of the world in 1918, it didn't do the same in 2009. Novel viruses emerge and become more benign, or immunity builds, not by eliminating the illness but make symptoms mild (older people did well in 1918 because there had been an earlier flu), cross immunity does the same thing with mutations, etc, etc.This isn't the end of the world, we're not going to be social distancing forever

I'd love to hear him actually speak because this reads like a lot of selective quoting or possibly answers to a q and a where he, like a good scientist should, hedges when journalists try to ask questions about something they know nothing to get an article and responses and despair that fill this thread.

people really need to learn out to read journalistic articles critically and understand certain tropes they use

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He added the more he learns about the unusual structure and high mutation rate of COVID-19, the less optimistic he feels about the situation.

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"Less optimistic" is more meaningful than your typical hedging, but I guess we don't know how much less.

Edit: Also, I don't think temporary immunity is in doubt from anyone. That there's not yet a wave of reinfected people doesn't disprove the potential that their immunity will go away.

 

[Typhon]

We are never going to have a normal life again are we? Guess we can kiss any kind of mass gatherings goodbye along with free global travel.

 

[Joni]

We are never going to have a normal life again are we? Guess we can kiss any kind of mass gatherings goodbye along with free global travel.

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I think you are underestimating humans need to return to normal behavior.

 

[Typhon]

I think you are underestimating humans need to return to normal behavior.

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So you agree that these things should stay dead? That coronavirus has fucked out world so much that we will never recover from it?

 

[Joni]

So you agree that these things should stay dead? That coronavirus has fucked out world so much that we will never recover from it?

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No, I'm thinking that we will return to these things way before we get to a vaccine. Like end of year early. Unless there is a clear signal that at that point, it would only be a couple of weeks/months until it is available.

 

[Typhon]

No, I'm thinking that we will return to these things way before we get to a vaccine.

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Didn't you read the article? Vaccine won't fix anything, we're fucked.

 

[Joni]

Didn't you read the article? Vaccine won't fix anything, we're fucked.

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There is a lot of things wrong with the statements made in the article. And as I said, I don't think humanity will care.

 

[Deleted member 48991]

As an Australian, a yearly flu shot is completely normal for us. So I can't see this being a bad thing.

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I don't think many people get the annual flu shot in The Netherlands (apart from health workers), at least not in my family. I currently live in Japan where it seems like something mostly older people/people at risk get. I asked my girlfriend about it and she says at least a few people at her work take it, so I guess it's not completely uncommon.

 

[Senator Toadstool]

Didn't you read the article? Vaccine won't fix anything, we're fucked.

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Take a deep breath. This there have been far worse drugs. We'll have vaccines that change, we'll have treatments, we'll have therapeutics, we'll track it better. We're not fucked.

and I suspect you didn't read the article because it literally ends with him saying the vaccine will prevent people from getting it more than once. Doesn't sound like fucked

 

[Joni]

I don't think many people get the annual flu shot in The Netherlands (apart from health workers), at least not in my family. I currently live in Japan where it seems like something mostly older people/people at risk get. I asked my girlfriend about it and she says at least a few people at her work take it, so I guess it's not completely uncommon.

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Indeed. The European CDC only recommends the flu shot for healthcare workers and risk groups. They want 100% coverage in those groups over average coverage in all groups as they consider this a more efficient strategy.

 

[Luminish]

We are never going to have a normal life again are we? Guess we can kiss any kind of mass gatherings goodbye along with free global travel.

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Researchers are pretty smart, and a whole lot of them are focusing on this. We're learning it's not an easy nut to crack, but we are very far from admitting defeat.

And honestly, no-mass gatherings and no-global travel is already pretty normal for people who can't afford those things. I get it's hard to change for people accustomed to frequently partaking in those activities, but these coming decades are likely to be hard with or without the virus, and we probably should to learn to be flexable if we want to survive it.

 

[Typhon]

Take a deep breath. This there have been far worse drugs. We'll have vaccines that change, we'll have treatments, we'll have therapeutics, we'll track it better. We're not fucked.

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Meaning what? Will I ever been able to walk outside without a mask? Or do any kind of mass gathering without one? Will I ever be able to get on a plane without a damn temperature check or having to verify my vaccination is up to date like some god awful dystopian nightmare?

 

[Friskykillface]

Yearly/even 6 month covid-19 shots wouldn't be the worst thing if that's the solution.