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CD Projekt Red's stock fell 25% in two months amid Cyberpunk uncertainty

Burbank

Burbank

Member
Sep 9, 2018
855
Pangea
• CDPR (WSE:CDP) lost almost 2.5 billion $ (USD), ie 25% of its market value since August.
Diminished by:
• Negative news (article explicitly mentions reports of CDPR work conditions)
• Delays

Source:
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...eds-stock-has-fallen-25-percent-in-two-months

I looked quickly at the development since the article was posted. Still no clear sign of a recovery.
Repeated delays and continued negative news are keeping the owners uncertain?

Screenshot-20201103-052944-Chrome.jpg


Screenshot-20201103-052904-Chrome.jpg


Source: Google "cdpr stock"

Edit: Related reading

1.
www.bloomberg.com

Cyberpunk 2077 Publisher Orders 6-Day Weeks Ahead of Launch

Polish video game developer CD Projekt Red told employees on Monday that six-day work weeks will be mandatory leading up to the November release of the highly anticipated Cyberpunk 2077, reneging on an earlier promise to not force overtime on the project.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com

2.
www.resetera.com

The Witcher 3: Misogyny in my video game? More likely than you think

So I decided to finally try out the Witcher 3 after hearing pretty much everyone and their mother speak about how amazing the game is--barring the combat, of course. I borrowed a copy off a friend as I don't personally feel comfortable giving CDPR money with the Cyberpunk/transphobia situation...
www.resetera.com www.resetera.com

3. The link in the actual OP 👍
It's short guys!
 
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ReggieBC

ReggieBC

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
359
Don't mean shit. It'll be back up before you know it.
Fuck em
 
Strings

Strings

Member
Oct 27, 2017
31,418
To be honest, it's not even worth talking about. They were hilariously overvalued / a bubble waiting to explode. They still are, but /shrug.
Pyro said:
It'll more than make up for it once the game comes out. Call me when it plummets like over 50% or something.
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It won't. The price was factoring in the game being basically a GTAV tier success.
 
Pyro

Pyro

God help us the mods are making weekend threads
Member
Jul 30, 2018
14,505
United States
It'll more than make up for it once the game comes out. Call me when it plummets like over 50% or something.
 
Joshua

Joshua

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,723
But... there's a lot of companies stock charts that look like that over the last month. Seems lazy to attribute this entirely to "uncertainty" from the delays.
 
IIFloodyII

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,977
Their stock was pretty ridiculously inflated. Was only a matter of when it'd pop and sort it's self out, I thought it'd happen post release, after the MP definitely, but guess some are cashing out now.
 
Fabtacular

Fabtacular

Member
Jul 11, 2019
4,244
The $10B CDPR valuation really puts into perspective Take Two being valued at $22B.

That's gotta be $20B for GTA, $6B for NBA2k, and like -$4B for the rest of the company.
 
Golbez

Golbez

Member
Oct 20, 2020
2,460
I think they were higher than Ubisoft at some point. That's some crazy overvaluation.
 
OP
OP
Burbank

Burbank

Member
Sep 9, 2018
855
Pangea
Joshua said:
But... there's a lot of companies stock charts that look like that over the last month. Seems lazy to attribute this entirely to "uncertainty" from the delays.
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That's a good point that the article doesn't address directly.
It does point out that CDPR market cap exceeded Ubisoft in Aug. And now Ubisoft märket cap is 40% higher than CDPR.

So either Ubi outperformed, or (as the article argues) CDPR was too reliant on 1 single game and perhaps overvalued.

Edit: But I agree, it's a bit reductive when presented in a vacuum. There's a lot going on. More circumstances evidence: EA has seen roughly 15% drop since end of Aug. Nintendo and Ubi have been killing it. ("Zoom" with your fingers to get stats for a range in the Google stock graphs 😑)
 
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Hyun Sai

Hyun Sai

Member
Oct 27, 2017
14,562
Report of bad work condition was certainly of no effect in this. This is Wall Street.
 
AppleBlade

AppleBlade

Member
Nov 15, 2017
1,711
Connecticut
How in the world is CD Project worth 7.5 Billion dollars (that is after the drop)? That's what Microsoft paid for Zenimax which includes Bethesda, Id Software, Zenimax Online, Arkane, MachineGames, Tango Gameworks, etc. and also includes some of the most famous IP in the industry (Elderscrolls, Fallout, Doom, Quake, Wolfenstein, Dishonored). I can't compute this, what am I missing?
 
carlsojo

carlsojo

Member
Oct 28, 2017
33,830
San Francisco
Time to buy.

This happens all the time.

EA stock dropped after Anthem I think and it went right back up and was even higher like a month later.
 
hwarang

hwarang

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,452
stop posting stock threads on ERA (not just you OP). so many embarassing takes from people with no knowledge of how stocks work.
 
Dark_Castle

Dark_Castle

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,147
Stock rise and fall all the time. I know it's fun to attribute consequences to their actions but this doesn't mean a whole lot unless you're a stakeholder.
 
Jogi

Jogi

Prophet of Regret
Member
Jul 4, 2018
5,451
Uncertainty when a product will release will do this. I wish it fell for other reasons, but it'll go back up soon like nothing happened.
 
OP
OP
Burbank

Burbank

Member
Sep 9, 2018
855
Pangea
Hyun Sai said:
Report of bad work condition was certainly of no effect in this. This is Wall Street.
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The OP article and linked analysis discusses this.

CDPR sales are seen as unusually reliant on fan connection/goodwill with CDPR. If investors fear that fans might sour on CDPR they think this will have a large impact on sales.

The average Madden buyer is not heavily concerned with EA as a brand. They just buy Madden.
Investors think the average, or at least many CDPR consumers are, and has factored that into market value when predicting future CDPR profits.

Edit: added actual links.
 
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IIFloodyII

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,977
Fabtacular said:
The $10B CDPR valuation really puts into perspective Take Two being valued at $22B.

That's gotta be $20B for GTA, $6B for NBA2k, and like -$4B for the rest of the company.
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Take-Two really put into perspective how overvalued CDP are, Take-Two makes some sense, they have arguably the biggest blockbuster media I.P on the planet with GTA, guaranteed billions and a couple massive yearly licensed I.Ps in the 2K Sports, NBA being especially big and a full publishing arm on top (2 really with 2K and Rockstar). With just some huge secondary I.Ps in Borderlands, Red Dead and Civilization and a decent amount of minor/not active I.P.

CDP have a I'm pretty sure healthy digital storefront, but not hugely so. An exclusive license for a massive I.P in The Witcher and I assume they have an exclusive license for Cyberpunk too.
 

Deleted member 68874

Account closed at user request
Banned
May 10, 2020
10,441
CDPR has always been overvalued. The fact they were valued more than Ubisoft is nonsense. It feels like investors are expecting CB2077 to do GTA V numbers.
 
OP
OP
Burbank

Burbank

Member
Sep 9, 2018
855
Pangea
IIFloodyII said:
Take-Two really put into perspective how overvalued CDP are, Take-Two makes some sense, they have arguably the biggest blockbuster media I.P on the planet with GTA, guaranteed billions and a couple massive yearly licensed I.Ps in the 2K Sports, NBA being especially big and a full publishing arm on top (2 really with 2K and Rockstar). With just some huge secondary I.Ps in Borderlands, Red Dead and Civilization and a decent amount of minor/not active I.P.

CDP have a I'm pretty sure healthy digital storefront, but not hugely so. An exclusive license for a massive I.P in The Witcher and I assume they have an exclusive license for Cyberpunk too.
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I don't have any real understanding of asset evaluation, but it will be interesting to see if any significant amount of CDPR customers care (in $)
about i) CDPR workers or ii) women's and trans rights.

The news have definitely picked up i), even beyond gaming news.
But does the average Witcher/Cyberpunk buyer actually care?
 
IIFloodyII

IIFloodyII

Member
Oct 26, 2017
23,977
Burbank said:
I don't have any real understanding of asset evaluation, but it will be interesting to see if any significant amount of CDPR customers care (in $)
about i) CDPR workers or ii) women's and trans rights.

The news have definitely picked up i), even beyond gaming news.
But does the average Witcher/Cyberpunk buyer actually care?
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I don't think enough care to affect it sadly, I mean people here barely care and that's after we've had multiple threads with very detailed posts on it, so outside of here it probably barely factors if at all. Cyberpunk will probably be top 3/4 best sellers this year after CoD, Animal Crossing and FIFA/maybe NBA (I'm not sure how front loaded sports games are) and sell well next year/for years too.
 
Pandora012

Pandora012

Moderator
Oct 25, 2017
5,495
Ehhh seems weird to attribute this to cyberpunk. Tech stocks have been taking a beating since...September started, maybe late August. Cant remember when the 1st drop happened. So like, this just seems like a reporter that doesn't really understand stocks. Doesn't help that the backbone of the tech side of stocks are still weak after earnings last week. So cd will probably continue see some weakness until tech sorts themselves out.
 
hwarang

hwarang

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,452
TP-DK said:
With that logic we shouldnt be posting threads on ERA at all.
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It's only been 2 months... it could rebound after the release of Cyberpunk.
If the value has been declining for the past 12 months then yes there is a discussion to be had but there needs to be much more substantial case to truly discuss why a stock would be going down because its price behavior isn't just specifically weighed to firm specific risk but also market risk.

but to be fair at least this isn't the FF 16 1 day 0.28% stock price drop thread lmao
 
The Bad Guy

The Bad Guy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
295
At this point what's the best way to fight back against CD project? After all the things they have done to their employees and the transphobia they display?
 
Tovarisc

Tovarisc

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,428
FIN
The Bad Guy said:
At this point what's the best way to fight back against CD project? After all the things they have done to their employees and the transphobia they display?
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Just don't buy or play their games in any way (even used, "loophole" people here like to use) and if really dedicated try influence people in your circle to do same.
 
The Bad Guy

The Bad Guy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
295
Tovarisc said:
Just don't buy or play their games in any way (even used, "loophole" people here like to use) and if really dedicated try influence people in your circle to do same.
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I am definitely okay with this. I just wonder if it has any impact to the employees. But I suppose the message is more important here.
 
nikos

nikos

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
2,998
New York, NY
Took a couple of minutes of research to see that it spiked around August and has since stabilized. Lifetime average is $60.39 and it's currently sitting at $76.46. I don't think there's anything worth writing about here.
 
KernelC

KernelC

alt account
Banned
Aug 28, 2019
3,561
I mean, their projections were stupid. A company that doesn't have even 80% the output of Ubisoft shouldn't be worth that high. It's not so much that it's losing steam but more like aligning with what it should have had in the first place
 
The Bad Guy

The Bad Guy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
295
Tovarisc said:
They have been paid their salaries and OT already, losing some sales wont change that after the fact.
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Good to know. Thanks. I will definitely be passing on the game then. Just like Ubisoft after there silence toxic work environment.

It's actually been good, I been supporting alot of indies developers more recently.
 

Deleted member 18944

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The Bad Guy said:
At this point what's the best way to fight back against CD project? After all the things they have done to their employees and the transphobia they display?
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continue spreading awareness of transphobia and crunch. The idea of not buying the game will affect them Is nonsense. Keep talking about the shit that they consider damaging to their brand.
 
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