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Oct 31, 2017
4,333
Unknown
I'm not sure how closely you are following politics in Canada...but the Conservatives are likely going to gain seats in the prairies, and also in Quebec and BC. Right now things are looking okay for the Liberals, but if the current trends hold then the Liberals will eke out either a slim minority or a slim majority, mostly accomplished by increasing/holding in Ontario/Quebec.

AB and SK will probably never (in our lifetimes) vote more in more than a handful of Liberal seats. In fact, I'd wager that this is the last election where the Liberals will elect a single MP in SK. After Ralph Goodale retires (probably after this election and before the next), that riding is going Conservative. Everywhere else in SK, the NDP are the main competition to the CPC.
I spent a bit of time in SK and AB and still have some contact out there.
Pragmatism is a strong trait with many on the prairies. I think it's possible enough voters will wake up and realize they don't want to live under the rule of a bunch of Conservative yahoos keeping them on target and locked into becoming a despised, isolated, racist, polluted, religious compound.
It's not too late!
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
I judge provinces how their largest urban centers behave.

If their biggest city has lots of Conservative MPs = the entire Province is racist

Everywhere their are rurals but their cities... Their cities. I judge you
 
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mo60

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,198
Edmonton, Alberta
I see the liberals doing incredibly well in Ontario and Quebec, keeping almost all of their seats in BC or even possibly gaining seats in BC and doing fine in Atlantic Canada. I think there is a chance the Liberals win over 200 seats at this point
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,407
giphy.gif

My post was a satuire of gutter's, whose opinion and comment is incredibly dumb (that AB/SK should separate), turning it around to show that Quebec has ample reason to separate as well (the one thing he thinks shouldn't be allowed).

I spent a bit of time in SK and AB and still have some contact out there.
Pragmatism is a strong trait with many on the prairies. I think it's possible enough voters will wake up and realize they don't want to live under the rule of a bunch of Conservative yahoos keeping them on target and locked into becoming a despised, isolated, racist, polluted, religious compound.
It's not too late!

You simply don't know enough about the area then. People here may vote NDP again, but not Liberal. The Liberals are a permanently-destroyed brand in the prairies. Also, religion is not as important of an issue in AB/SK as you'd think. Social conservatism is definitely real here though, but typically focused on racism. Keep in mind that "conservative yahoos" have governed AB and SK between 60 and 90% of the time over the last 20 years. People here vote for them. And knock oil all you want (I think we need to get off of it), but without oil AB/SK are basically bankrupt. It would be like telling the Maritimes that they can't fish, BC that they can't use the mountains, or Ontario/QC that they can't manufacture or make money in technology. I agree that the prairies need to transition off of oil...but why would they when there is so much money in it, and the east is not offering compensation to get away from it?

I judge provinces how their largest urban centers behave.

If their biggest city has lots of Conservative MPs = the entire Province is racist

Everywhere their are rurals but their cities... Their cities. I judge you

So you like to generalize. One would almost say...pre-judge. Prejudice, you moron. Let me ask you this - would you say that all of Quebec is racist because the NDP swept it, and the NDP candidates there were largely nationalist? Would you say that Ontario is racist because the major centres went hard for Harper when he got his majority? You'll probably make excuses (oh well yes Toronto went blue, but the real Toronto is just the core, and it was red).

People vote the way they do for many reasons. I have family that votes Conservative because they want lower taxes, even though they are pro-minority rights, etc. They might vote Liberals, but the Liberals are poison here. So your choice is right-wing or left-wing, and they see the NDP as big-taxers.
 
Oct 27, 2017
5,407
Montréal and it's suburbs have never ever elected a single CPC MP in gistiry

Okay...but the majority of Quebec elected the Bloc, who are xenophobic and racist. Why should we judge 70% of the province by what 30% do? It's so selective as to be ridiculous. It's like saying Canada should be judged by what Toronto votes since it's the largest city, even if the CPC got a huge majority.
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
It's a good thing trends are changing, then. Conservative urbanites in the prairies, being unable to stamp out the march toward progressivism in their cities caused by millennial voter upticks, are evacuating to adjacent townships that fall outside of the electoral boundaries of the cities. In Saskatchewan, Warman has grown to a rather large city in a matter of 10 years, and other towns outside of Saskatoon such as Martensville and Osler have also seen large population swells, as mostly white conservatives from Gen X and the Baby Boom abandon the city for cheaper homes and better (read: whiter) municipal politics. Regina is seeing something similar there, as well, and even smaller cities like Prince Albert have people abandoning the city for the half hour work commute from the Lakeland area.

They're essentially creating Saskatchewan's very own 905-analogous region, albeit more deeply conservative than the 905 is. And that means a turn in urban politics here can be expected to show its face within the next 10 years, if not in October.

EDIT: And that's to say nothing of how Tories are elected in urban SK by the NDP suffering vote splitting by Liberal voters. Add up the progressive party votes in urban ridings and they outnumber the Tories. Period. If you want to blame someone for Tories getting elected in places like Saskatoon and Regina, there's only one group that can be blamed for it, and sorry gutter, you won't like who it is.
 
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gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
Okay...but the majority of Quebec elected the Bloc, who are xenophobic and racist. Why should we judge 70% of the province by what 30% do? It's so selective as to be ridiculous. It's like saying Canada should be judged by what Toronto votes since it's the largest city, even if the CPC got a huge majority.
Feel free to bash Quebec the province, I have no attachment to the "province" as a construct. I'm a city guy who's more attached to his city than the rest of the admustrative land mass you call a "province" lol
 

firehawk12

Member
Oct 25, 2017
24,192
EDIT: And that's to say nothing of how Tories are elected in urban SK by the NDP suffering vote splitting by Liberal voters. Add up the progressive party votes in urban ridings and they outnumber the Tories. Period. If you want to blame someone for Tories getting elected in places like Saskatoon and Regina, there's only one group that can be blamed for it, and sorry gutter, you won't like who it is.

But ABC = Always Vote Liberal!!!

(Or, honestly, most Liberals are just red Tories)
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,333
Unknown
You simply don't know enough about the area then. People here may vote NDP again, but not Liberal. The Liberals are a permanently-destroyed brand in the prairies. Also, religion is not as important of an issue in AB/SK as you'd think. Social conservatism is definitely real here though, but typically focused on racism. Keep in mind that "conservative yahoos" have governed AB and SK between 60 and 90% of the time over the last 20 years. People here vote for them. And knock oil all you want (I think we need to get off of it), but without oil AB/SK are basically bankrupt. It would be like telling the Maritimes that they can't fish, BC that they can't use the mountains, or Ontario/QC that they can't manufacture or make money in technology. I agree that the prairies need to transition off of oil...but why would they when there is so much money in it, and the east is not offering compensation to get away from it?
The importance of oil as a top earner through the transition is the reason the prairies have to come to terms with the Liberals being the ones to push those interests to the very edge of acceptable limits nationally. Because on top of other conflicts the Cons have besides the Alberta and oil centric parts of platform has with other regions of Canada is that if they lose and there is revealed a real push and turnout for stronger environmental legislation nationally it will be apparent the Cons aren't going to get anywhere near what they want now or ever again in the future.
The Liberal party is poised to become the oil industry's strongest electable legislators against a powerful environmental movement.

There's lots of discussion to be had about transition and that is what needs to be had. The Cons are not good reps for that discussion if all they're going to do is try to backtrack legislation and provide no negotiable alternatives.
I'd like to see more oil development leveraged and tied to UBI legislation as part of the transitional discussion. Something with fed and provincial levels. I think there could be an interesting fair discussion tied in with citizenship, immigration and province tied to it.
Whatever the discussion and ideas something will have to be figured out.
I supported TMX. I preferred more northern coastal development but that got knocked down by north coast enviro legislation and is a done deal but that's democracy. I think a lot of BC voters feel this way and would lean to that whole issue having being decided and changing that radically or outright cancelling it would be met with heavy resistance. Look in the other direction to how Site C was handled . Things were negotiated and set in motion. Though a new gov moved in they made the best of it because voters don't like backtracking on negotiated and passed legislation.
If the Cons are saying BC is going to change now on passed environmental legislation without some serious pushback that's imagination land stuff.

I think there are a lot of reachable oil industry supporting prairie voters(among others) who once they drop the bs about the state of things are going to realize that the party who can and will most enable oil industry prairie right wingers through the green transition is Liberal Canada. There might be better plans available that will enable great prosperity and better green results and could be more favourable parties in the future as the economic status, viabilities and discussion changes.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,428
I supported TMX. I preferred more northern coastal development but that got knocked down by north coast enviro legislation and is a done deal but that's democracy. I think a lot of BC voters feel this way and would lean to that whole issue having being decided and changing that radically or outright cancelling it would be met with heavy resistance. Look in the other direction to how Site C was handled . Things were negotiated and set in motion. Though a new gov moved in they made the best of it because voters don't like backtracking on negotiated and passed legislation.
If the Cons are saying BC is going to change now on passed environmental legislation without some serious pushback that's imagination land stuff.

It was a strategic masterstroke for Trudeau to cancel Enbridge and then go hard supporting TMX. He was able to boost his environmental cred, and point to this sort of decision as an example of the Trudeau-ism that we can 'do both' environmentalism and resource development. The reality however, was that Northern Gateway was always a dog and was probably never gonna happen so cancelling it was an easy choice with zero downside.

The decision to cancel likely had nothing to do with environmentalism. The Canadian government was facing fierce opposition from the Haida, Heltsiuk and a host of other First Nations which had never ceded their lands through treaty. The most likely outcome of Northern Gateway was a decade plus of lawsuits and an eventual loss for the Canadian government. It was never worth it.

TMX, though it impacts more federal ridings, is an expansion of an existing pipeline, and an easier sell. The First Nations whose unceded lands are directly impacted are fewer and relatively smaller and thus easier to roll over (my apologies to the MST but it's true).

I agree that BC voters are largely 'ok' with TMX at this point. British Columbia has accepted TMX, though there remains a sort of simmering resentment, mostly around the feeling that BC got a raw deal. I think if you polled British Columbians most would agree with the notion that BC was accepting 100% of the risk and getting no real benefits. It could have been played a different way. I'm not sure to what degree this will manifest in the election. There was certainly a portion of the low information BC voter in 2015 which thought that Trudeau was against all pipelines (I know a few) and those voters feel betrayed and may sit out or vote Green or NDP. My bet would be a lower turnout and the possibility for less Liberal wins from that.
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
But ABC = Always Vote Liberal!!!

(Or, honestly, most Liberals are just red Tories)
I also checked Edmonton and Calgary, for the sake of personal interest. Unlike SK, it does lean Tory more heavily per 2015 numbers in urban areas than SK does, but in Edmonton, 5 of the 7 Edmonton ridings would be progressive without vote splitting (up from 3 currently) and 3 of 10 ridings in Calgary (up from 2). Not quite the full 7-riding sweep you'd see in urban SK, but certainly not an indication that the cities are majority conservative as has been suggested here, either.
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
thetyee.ca

Harper, Serial Abuser of Power: The Evidence Compiled | The Tyee

The Tyee's full, updated list of 70 Harper government assaults on democracy and the law.

Man reading this list Harper was worse and more Trump-like than I remember.

Scheer saying that they'll follow the guidelines that Harper did should make anyone shit bricks.
He was really good about spreading the bad news really REALLY thin over 10 years so no one would think to tally it up until it's too late.
 
Oct 31, 2017
4,333
Unknown
Accurate analysis, Tik.
About the simmering resentment I wanted to plainly state what was implied and add that if BC is pushed too hard in some way it would put TMX at risk too.
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,880


Debunking Scheer's promise to make parental leave "tax free".

Hint: it's just a non-refundable tax credit.
 

Deleted member 49179

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 30, 2018
4,140
Crazy how conservatives still push the word "tax" as the ultimate boogeyman in any context whatsoever. Are people really still falling for this?
 

Morrigan

Spear of the Metal Church
Member
Oct 24, 2017
34,352
Just bring back the Rhinoceros Party and we'll be set!

EDIT : I'll be damned, apparently there is a new one.
Think I voted for them in my first election ever 👀 My riding was solid Bloc at the time anyway. Though, not anymore!

Prejudice, you moron.
Feel free to bash Quebec the province
How about no. Guys please, let's not make this thread toxic. Thanks.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,428
For the last two years in BC the entirety of August has been a garbage haze month of awful forest fire smoke. This year it's been wet and there's been few forest fires and no haze.

IMO the Liberals have really dodged a bullet here with this good weather.

If we'd had a third consecutive year of forest fires writing off the month of August British Columbians would be talking about this as 'the new normal' and would be even more conscious of environmental issues and critical of the status quo. It would be fresh in their minds with the election starting right after.

 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
For the last two years in BC the entirety of August has been a garbage haze month of awful forest fire smoke. This year it's been wet and there's been few forest fires and no haze.

IMO the Liberals have really dodged a bullet here with this good weather.

If we'd had a third consecutive year of forest fires writing off the month of August British Columbians would be talking about this as 'the new normal' and would be even more conscious of environmental issues and critical of the status quo. It would be fresh in their minds with the election starting right after.

Yeah, those fires are something I did not miss when I left. The smoke was so thick at the foot of Burnaby Mountain that you couldn't open the windows and going outside stung my eyes and gave me migraines for days. If that happened this year, you're quite right in how it would shape attitudes going to the polling station.
 

Pandaman

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
1,710
People vote the way they do for many reasons. I have family that votes Conservative because they want lower taxes, even though they are pro-minority rights, etc. They might vote Liberals, but the Liberals are poison here. So your choice is right-wing or left-wing, and they see the NDP as big-taxers.
If this is your example of conservatives who aren't motivated by being terrible people then you've failed. You don't get to say you're pro-rights if not for taxes. If your tax bill is a barrier to minority rights then you're not pro-minority rights.
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
If this is your example of conservatives who aren't motivated by being terrible people then you've failed. You don't get to say you're pro-rights if not for taxes. If your tax bill is a barrier to minority rights then you're not pro-minority rights.
There's plenty of people who consider themselves progressive until it runs up against another ideology and they resolve it by ditching the one that doesn't personally affect them. So yeah, they are progressive at their personal convenience.

But you're right, if that's all they can commit to the cause of my rights, then as far as I'm concerned, they can keep it and stop using my survival and prosperity for their own social posturing against bigots and whackadoos when they would gladly toss my rights aside on a whim if it meant it inconvenienced them somehow. It's performative wokeness for the sake of personal pride and vanity.
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada


look who the Cons dug up for a web ad

I dunno if "dug up" is the right word, since he's been peddling Canada's conservative agenda in the states for a long-ass time now. He didn't go away so much as he changed his primary audience.

All that said, even Rachel Curran (ugh) admits that this is an act of desperation to get people to liken modern Tories to the big tent that Harper ruled with an iron fist, cuz Scheer can't keep all the clowns in his big top.
 

djkimothy

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,456
Singh doesn't seem phased about his candidate situation. And i'm starting to get a feeling that part of the problem is that the NDP is a victim of their own selection standards.



Singh brushed off the bad numbers, attributing the slump in support the amount of work it takes to recruit the right candidates.

Sometimes courting diverse candidates takes longer because they don't see themselves reflected in politics, he said. But that slow vetting process led two NDP hopefuls to withdraw their candidacy this week, announcing their decisions on social media.

"We know we've got to change the status quo," Singh said. "We want to get more women involved in politics. We want to get marginalized people in politics. And that takes work."
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,880
I dunno if "dug up" is the right word, since he's been peddling Canada's conservative agenda in the states for a long-ass time now. He didn't go away so much as he changed his primary audience.

Is Harper peddling it in the US or did they sell it to him a long time ago?

He was meeting up with American neocons and social conservatives since the late 90s.

There's a full text of a speech by Harper to the super secretive Council for National Policy:
www.theglobeandmail.com

Text of Harper's speech

The Globe and Mail offers the most authoritative news in Canada, featuring national and international news

He describes our politics, civics and society to a bunch of US neocons, kinda creepy to see what he thinks about it.

All that said, even Rachel Curran (ugh) admits that this is an act of desperation to get people to liken modern Tories to the big tent that Harper ruled with an iron fist, cuz Scheer can't keep all the clowns in his big top

Either Scheer is a weak leader or the nutjob wing of the party is stronger now.

Maybe Liberals can run "He's just not ready"
 
Oct 27, 2017
17,441
The one where he's talking to you "one on one"? That one is super creepy.

Also, lol @ at using a forest background. Cons never met a tree they didn't hate.
Yeah, but instead of making eye contact with "you," he's looking off to the side of the camera. It's weird.

I dunno if "dug up" is the right word, since he's been peddling Canada's conservative agenda in the states for a long-ass time now. He didn't go away so much as he changed his primary audience.

All that said, even Rachel Curran (ugh) admits that this is an act of desperation to get people to liken modern Tories to the big tent that Harper ruled with an iron fist, cuz Scheer can't keep all the clowns in his big top.
I saw an interesting theory that the reason you'd bring out Harper is actually that you're more worried about losing your base than trying to appeal to moderate voters.
 

Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,428
Sometimes courting diverse candidates takes longer because they don't see themselves reflected in politics, he said. But that slow vetting process led two NDP hopefuls to withdraw their candidacy this week, announcing their decisions on social media.

"We know we've got to change the status quo," Singh said. "We want to get more women involved in politics. We want to get marginalized people in politics. And that takes work."

Reading between the lines here, I think the reason things are taking a while is that NDP leadership is trying to turn the page, bring in some fresh faces, and hoping failed candidates that have run in the past are able to take the hint.

For example one of those candidates that quit the process was Sid Ryan, who is a controversial figure who has ran for the NDP multiple times and never won.
 

gutter_trash

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
17,124
Montreal
the Sid Ryan situation is really really dumb. Here you have a guy who is a union labour type guy who ran as for MP in his riding for the party (in the past) and fit the mold ideologically but the current NDP are making it harder for guys like him to participate, it's just dumb

Progressive parties going overboard on diversification need to play a balancing act of not pushing out loyal supporters who happen to be white guys..
NDP with Sid Ryan, that should have been a no brainer.

and on the Liberal side, they fucked up royally in Saint-Laurent-Saint-Michel which since 1988 always had an Italian-Canadian MP and candidates for the party just to be revealed that Hassan Guillett who held anti-semtic views won the nomination?.. he's not ever from St-Leonard LOL.
Liberals should have played it safe and just have listen to the consituaents in St-Leo, just pick the Italian-Canadian candidate for the Italian-Canadian riding. Why overcomplicate things to give the riding away to another party?
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,428
How many times do you give a perennial loser a chance?

Ryan has stood as an NDP candidate in three provincial and two federal election campaigns

But yeah I think a contributing factor is that he's just been around a long while and made too many enemies for various Ontario provincial politics reasons.
 

Gabbo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,567
It's nice to see the Cons so desperate. Fuck them, and every single person who votes for them.
Hey, if they're going to try and shackle Scheer back to Harper on their own, let us welcome it. Hopefully he can be an albatross around Scheer's neck after going and spouting neocon bullshit in the States.
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,880
Hey, if they're going to try and shackle Scheer back to Harper on their own, let us welcome it. Hopefully he can be an albatross around Scheer's neck after going and spouting neocon bullshit in the States.

Liberals need to run ads on what a pompous wannabe autocrat Harper was.

Seeing what's happening in the UK and Brexit people should have plenty of reminders that some parties are working to undermine democracy.
 

Kernel

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,880
Also WARNING: For the love of all that is holy, do not read the comments to the tweet

That goes with saying. A lot of fucking shills are out.

I'm seeing more and more alt-right and Nazi apologists on Reddit as well.

Trying to gaslight the country to vote against its own interests.

I'm hoping what's happening in the UK reminds people of Harper's prorogation stunts.
 

Gabbo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,567
That goes with saying. A lot of fucking shills are out.

I'm seeing more and more alt-right and Nazi apologists on Reddit as well.

Trying to gaslight the country to vote against its own interests.

I'm hoping what's happening in the UK reminds people of Harper's prorogation stunts.
you think theyd swarm around Bernier's more openly racist party more than they had. Much to our collective sadness
 

Terrell

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,624
Canada
you think theyd swarm around Bernier's more openly racist party more than they had. Much to our collective sadness
Oh they do. They congeal around any anti-progressive. Bernier, Scheer, doesn't matter. They'll defend both in equal measure. They'll just vote for what gets elected.
The right usually does AEC (always elect conservatives) voting better than we do ABC voting. That's the sad part. The previous Alberta election was a stern reminder to them of what division costs them.
 
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