nothing will be normal for a long time. even if we manage to get the virus under control which i'm sure we will then we need to deal with the economic impact. millions of people have lost their jobs or severely reduced income. businesses will be struggling and many will fold. entire countries will go into recession due to the emergency funding they've put out.
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Can the world return to relative normality before a COVID-19 vaccine is created?
- Thread starter ToddBonzalez
- Start date
- COVID
No, because logical thinking was never those peoples strong points. Most of them will line right up for a COVID vaccine though. Expect some handwavey logic about how this vaccine is ok but the other ones are all full of Autism or whatever nonsense it is those people follow nowadays.
I get that. I'm used to travelling a few times a year for work, to cool places, and I'm really going to miss that. But if airlines do start flying again this autumn, say, there's no way I'm going through an airport or onto a plane or exploring a new city without either an antibody test or a vaccination on my side.
My guess is to avoid economic collapse, businesses reopen in Mid-April like Trump has said. Millions more will become infected. This will be seen as normal, at least in America. As long as the DOW keep going, millions of deaths will be fine to the rich/elite.
The new normal will be to get infected and have a good enough immune system to survive the virus.
The new normal will be to get infected and have a good enough immune system to survive the virus.
User Banned (2 Weeks): Xenophobic Rhetoric
As long as China keeps its wet market trade, another virus pandemic is always in the future. Lots of exotic animals kept in horrid conditions, sick and defecating on the animals in cages below, being chopped up into meat and remedies for the whackos that think eating such meat will make them stallions in bed. THAT shit's gotta stop. Hopefully the whole world, after suffering from this virus together, can muster up a backbone strong enough to sanction China. When it was discovered that SARS originated by a special kind of wild cat they sold at one of their wet markets, China outlawed the sale of that cat... then when SARS cases went down, basically said, "Okay people, we can sell that wild cat meat again!!"
The United Nations and other global groups should also adhere to a new law: "People, stop eating weird, sick animals!"
We don't know as yet how long Covid 19 antibodies last after infection. Most Flu's get around 12 months before the antibodies created start to diminish. Many Corona virus' such as MERS and some common colds have a short antibody life, meaning we could be looking at a yearly occurrence. Then again SARS which is closely related to Covid 19 has shown antibodies to be present up to 10 years after recovery, this would be ideal as society would always have a number of 'blockers' that are immune.
Once we know for sure how long a person is immune to reinfection then antibody tests followed by a period of isolation if positive (or an active infection test) and then a return to society for that person may be possible if reinfection can't occur for a substantial amount of time. But a lot of people would have to be infected and recover before any semblance of normality returned and we'd have to come up with a plan for the aged and vulnerable. That may be possible as the number of immune people who can interact safely with those groups increases.
Even if reinfection can occur quickly then the chances are the symptoms would be milder as the body has an immune memory response which activates the required antibodies much quicker. One of the reasons the Spanish Flu is thought to have been less effective in the elderly is that many had endured a similar Flu outbreak a generation before, this is immunological memory cells in action, remembering the strain and knowing how to deal with it. In a study done in the 00's it was found that children who survived the Spanish flu still had a very strong immune response to H1N1 some 80+ years later. By the same token we don't know how our immune response to other forms of Corona virus that are very common are effecting the disparity in the severity of Covid 19 symptoms, if at all.
So, to summarise.
It depends on how long any immunity lasts and what the real extent of infection is. Ideally we want a strong very long antibody response and a lot of unreported infections as it would imply the death rate isn't as high as it currently looks and they could all rejoin society.
Just a note, I started working in infectious diseases as a nurse in the early 90's, I then moved into training people in infection control and management. I've been out of it over a decade now but since this started I've caught the bug (figuratively speaking) and it's all come flooding back, though I may be a whisker away from losing it every time I see fuckwits in the Supermarket clutching masks to their faces before rummaging through the string beans with the same hand... And those candy/nut/dried fruit scoop stations should be fucking outlawed even without the current situation. It took me over 10 years to correct my need to wash my hands constantly and around a day to undo it all and slip back into OCD mode.
Normalcy as in like, life before Janaury 2020? I don't think so. There will continue to be travel restrictions, long stays of mandatory quarantine when traveling between countries or regions, and I'd imagine many states in the US will try to pursue voluntary travel restrictions between borders.
So the US has been seeing hundreds of deaths per day over the last few days, and it's going to climb to thousands of deaths per day over the next 2-4 weeks, and then it'll likely begin to drop. But, the reason we'll see this pattern is that you'll see regions like the North East, North West, California, parts of the SOuth East, peak in April, and then start to decline while other areas then "catch up" and have their peaks in ... May or June or whatever.
By the time we get *to where we are right now with people dying per day* it's going to be around June by most projections. By the time we get to where we were in deaths per day of a week ago or 14 days ago, it won't be until July or August. And, if you think about the panic from a 14 days ago and what life was like then -- many of us locked down in the PAc NW or the North East -- it's not exactly comforting.
So the US has been seeing hundreds of deaths per day over the last few days, and it's going to climb to thousands of deaths per day over the next 2-4 weeks, and then it'll likely begin to drop. But, the reason we'll see this pattern is that you'll see regions like the North East, North West, California, parts of the SOuth East, peak in April, and then start to decline while other areas then "catch up" and have their peaks in ... May or June or whatever.
By the time we get *to where we are right now with people dying per day* it's going to be around June by most projections. By the time we get to where we were in deaths per day of a week ago or 14 days ago, it won't be until July or August. And, if you think about the panic from a 14 days ago and what life was like then -- many of us locked down in the PAc NW or the North East -- it's not exactly comforting.
I think we will, people will have to get back to work at some point because people need money to live. People will also start getting bored and will go back to doing the things they like to do outside of their house.
Even with the flu shot and flu medication, people die from the flu. This will just be like the flu eventually, part of normal life. Hopefully, we will figure out something to shorten the duration and severity of it so that people can be at home and not in the ER.
Even with the flu shot and flu medication, people die from the flu. This will just be like the flu eventually, part of normal life. Hopefully, we will figure out something to shorten the duration and severity of it so that people can be at home and not in the ER.
Nope. Already got idiots talking about 5G or Bill Gates chips being implanted in you if you take the vaccine.
I expect the opposite and the anti vaccine movement will go even further extreme.
Has there been a credible source that gives a decent future outlook on this?
I know there is still more to learn on this virus but it seems these are all just guesses?
I know there was a study/report done with a very grim outlook but many experts disagreed with it and thought it was way too negative in its outlook.
My amateur take is that we will eventually "flatten the curve" enough so that our hospitals can take in new cases as they appear. At that point there will be a gradual return with some extra step taken.
Meaning you will be able to go back to work but there may be temperature readings at gates to work and event. My job is literally testng a body temp scanner today for those going into the office. Don't know how effective and widespread that can be.
We DO know that people can have it and not how symptoms. Luckily the chance of transmission is fairly low for these people, according to the CDC. The primary mode of infection is the virus on water droplets that leave your body in a cough or otherwise.
The other hope is that while a vaccine is finalized we can develop better treatment methods. If you can just get a shot or take some meds that mitigate the symptoms enough to make it possible to ride it out at home... we can more or less return to normal.
Another amateur question... In virus outbreak, zombie or otherwise, movies... A common trope is you find someone who is immune to the virus. The goal is to protect that person and use them to develop a cure.... We know a lot of people get infected and show ZERO symptoms. Either that or they show mild symptoms.
Is that because of something in their genetics or body composition? Is it luck of the draw that you got dud virus cells? Can we leverage that in any way? If a person gets it and doesnt have symptoms is that person safe from contracting it and showing symptoms?
I know there is still more to learn on this virus but it seems these are all just guesses?
I know there was a study/report done with a very grim outlook but many experts disagreed with it and thought it was way too negative in its outlook.
My amateur take is that we will eventually "flatten the curve" enough so that our hospitals can take in new cases as they appear. At that point there will be a gradual return with some extra step taken.
Meaning you will be able to go back to work but there may be temperature readings at gates to work and event. My job is literally testng a body temp scanner today for those going into the office. Don't know how effective and widespread that can be.
We DO know that people can have it and not how symptoms. Luckily the chance of transmission is fairly low for these people, according to the CDC. The primary mode of infection is the virus on water droplets that leave your body in a cough or otherwise.
The other hope is that while a vaccine is finalized we can develop better treatment methods. If you can just get a shot or take some meds that mitigate the symptoms enough to make it possible to ride it out at home... we can more or less return to normal.
Another amateur question... In virus outbreak, zombie or otherwise, movies... A common trope is you find someone who is immune to the virus. The goal is to protect that person and use them to develop a cure.... We know a lot of people get infected and show ZERO symptoms. Either that or they show mild symptoms.
Is that because of something in their genetics or body composition? Is it luck of the draw that you got dud virus cells? Can we leverage that in any way? If a person gets it and doesnt have symptoms is that person safe from contracting it and showing symptoms?
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We'll have to ease things up eventually. The whole world can't just be shut down that long, it isn't possible. Eventually we're going to have to make some compromise.
Absolutely not imo. I think we'll see some start and stop till an effective treatment and ultimately vaccination becomes available.
At this point, it's all about saving and protecting our front line workers.
It's crazy, people are acting like this is up in April when we've really only just started.
At this point, it's all about saving and protecting our front line workers.
It's crazy, people are acting like this is up in April when we've really only just started.
No. You have people going to the beach today. The world is filled with idiots.
I think society changed in Japan after two atomic bombs and Jewish people all over the world after 1945. You are absolutely delusional if think any of these events had smaller ramifications than the virus. WW2 extensively formed the new world order. From how the Middle East operates to China's and US rise and the fall of European imperialism.
You're out of your mind if you think that's a realistic outcome of this.
What's the alternative though? Shutting down everything for a year+? That's not realistic either.
Things will not improve until we have capability to contain virus, which requires abundance of testing kits and contact tracing. Every citizen in the country must have easy access to the testing kit so we know who is sick who isn't. Then we can isolate sick people and their contacts while allow healthy people to go back to work. This will not completely stop the spreading but it will buy us times to develop the vaccine.
OP
OP
I don't think 9/11 is a good comparison because it was a single, localized event. COVID can continue affecting people all over the world for months, if not years to come.
it will be long forgotten when a vaccine is out, which is what the topic is about. This is if things will be normal BEFORE a vaccine, aka will the rest of 2020 go back to normal, this isnt about "THE WORLD WILL NEVER BE THE SAME NOW"
What happens when things go back "to normal" in June (let's say June) and we get a second wave? Oh thats right...
That's not a good comparison. COVID-19 is a widespread threat across the entire globe. 9/11 wasn't.
We know it was a single localized event now. At the time it occurred, or as that poster referenced one month out, a lot of people thought it was a full on declaration of World War 3 and further attacks on American soil would follow. To a certain extent that is true, I mean think of things like going through an airport pre and post 9/11. But for the most part, we find a "new normal".
It will return to normal eventually. Just imagine how scared shitless you would be if your were alive during The Black Death, WW2, The Spanish Flu, The Civil War, and so on and so on. The world has seen far worse than this. But unlike the Spanish Flu these things are taken far more seriously now as they should be.
Until we have a grasp of how many people are actively infected or who have been infected and have antibodies, we really have no way of knowing for sure.
I remember reading an article claiming that the R0 for Covid could actually be ~23. Without testing the asymptomatic patients, we really have no idea how widespread it actually is.
I remember reading an article claiming that the R0 for Covid could actually be ~23. Without testing the asymptomatic patients, we really have no idea how widespread it actually is.
Depending on how well we stop it in it's tracks will determain how many new rises that will occur until we have a vaccine. Best cast senerio is once we detect it rising in an area they go back into lock down. Problem is it is spread so easily that it is very doubtful those measures will work and we will be right back here.
Antibody tests and approval of treatments that use already-approved drugs will help us make significant leaps *closer* to things being normal. It's not about making sure nobody ever gets sick, it's about making sure that the number of people getting sick is below the capacity of our hospitals to handle.
This
I forget who it was or where I saw it but there was a doctor saying he's confident we will have an effective anti-viral treatment that will allow us to go back to relative normalcy before a vaccine.
A lot of places have already perm closed and those jobs are coming back. It will get worse.
Still be a lot of people out of a job and looking for work that doesn't exist until new businesses open.
Not to mention the Gov dragging its feet to offer any real help.
Still be a lot of people out of a job and looking for work that doesn't exist until new businesses open.
Not to mention the Gov dragging its feet to offer any real help.
I wish it were the case but in light of a lot of stuff happening, i doubt things are getting back to normal. but if humans could survive the spanish flu and the bubonic plague, i don't see how this is any different. the only real lasting damage is the many small business that are gonna cease to exist after this. and the more i think about that the more depressed i get.
that well and, possible human extinction if we don't act fast enough