You're right, a group of people sharing trauma over a common tragedy is unprecedented and has no historical basis.
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Can the world return to relative normality before a COVID-19 vaccine is created?
- Thread starter ToddBonzalez
- Start date
- COVID
You're right, a group of people sharing trauma over a common tragedy is unprecedented and has no historical basis.
45 million deaths WW would mean like an average of 124,000 deaths per day for a year straight, right now we're sitting at 34,000 total for several months/weeks of this circulating.
I'm not saying shared trauma isn't a thing ffs I'm from NY but what I'm saying is you are assuming a lot on how this will play out over the next few weeks.You're right, a group of people sharing trauma over a common tragedy is unprecedented and has no historical basis.
Collective trauma - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
We're months away from a projected spike in virus cases. We are in the very, very early stages of it in the vast majority of cases, and even countries that have it somewhat under control risk a second coming. This virus isn't staying dead until a vaccine is developed and that's 18 months away at least.
If it ever got to a point where the death toll goes into millions, countries would force by law senior populations and people with pre-existing conditions to be isolated and cut off and only to be cared for by regularily tested medical staff.
There would be no choice to do that, you can't just sit there and let death tolls climb into 10, 20, 30 million, that's just a non-starter. There's no health system on the planet that can handle that.
Things like hotels and apartment complexes would be converted en masse into living quarters leased by the government for those groups.
All of those things could very possibly happen. There is no sure thing as to what is going to happen, but like any good virus, the rate of spread is exponential. I think people here are assuming we're just going to ride it out for a few months then return to movie theaters and concerts like nothing happened and I see that as nearly impossible. We're just getting started.
I have lost all hopes on that. Even after a final approved vaccine is available, it will take a long time to actually give it to people.
My parents ask me when I think they can go outside again, I cant tell them it can take like 18 months. World is fucked, I am afraid of riots and violence and hope current status sticks until then, forget about back to normal.
My parents ask me when I think they can go outside again, I cant tell them it can take like 18 months. World is fucked, I am afraid of riots and violence and hope current status sticks until then, forget about back to normal.
I also think if it ever got to that point, testing would become mandatory, you are required to get tested every 2-3 days or you might even get thrown in jail or something crazy like that if you violate orders. But yeah if it ever got that bad, there would be extreme measures taken by the government.
It won't be soon. Not until a vaccine is made. There's too much at stake right now if we try to get back to normal such as the risk to further burdening our health system, the risk to our elderly patients.
Unfortunately the two main industries that will be affected by this are the airline industries and the tourist industries. I don't see how they could come out of this without severe harm.
Unfortunately the two main industries that will be affected by this are the airline industries and the tourist industries. I don't see how they could come out of this without severe harm.
This will be a generational psychological scar. The world won't be the same, but yeah I think "relative" normalcy will be back if we get a working treatment soon. After that though, more rigorous hygienic measures (that should've been enforced already anyway) will be the new "normal".
I think on the treatment side, the plasma of people who have already have COVID19 will be used to be injected in people who don't have immunity and that is already being fast tracked to be available well in advance of a vaccine.
The NBA is actually asking players who have recovered from COVID19 to donate plasma for this exact treatment.
nba.nbcsports.com
It would be somewhat ironic if Rudy Gobert ended up somehow helping get a treatment for COVID19 after all this, lol.
The NBA is actually asking players who have recovered from COVID19 to donate plasma for this exact treatment.
Report: NBA Together asks players who have recovered from COVID-19 to consider donating plasma
Shams Charania of The Athletic reports that the NBA Together initiative is asking NBA players who have recovered from coronavirus to consider donating plasma: NBA Together was created in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, as the NBA suspended the 2019-20 season.
nba.nbcsports.com
It would be somewhat ironic if Rudy Gobert ended up somehow helping get a treatment for COVID19 after all this, lol.
That's super fascinating. Science is so cool.I think on the treatment side, the plasma of people who have already have COVID19 will be used to be injected in people who don't have immunity and that is already being fast tracked to be available well in advance of a vaccine.
The NBA is actually asking players who have recovered from COVID19 to donate plasma for this exact treatment.
Report: NBA Together asks players who have recovered from COVID-19 to consider donating plasma
Shams Charania of The Athletic reports that the NBA Together initiative is asking NBA players who have recovered from coronavirus to consider donating plasma: NBA Together was created in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, as the NBA suspended the 2019-20 season.
It would be somewhat ironic if Rudy Gobert ended up somehow helping get a treatment for COVID19 after all this, lol.
I don't see how that happens unless we're lucky and it goes away when it gets hot. But it's worth mentioning that it was summer/fall in the southern hemisphere and it didn't seem to make a big difference, but it's still too early to tell.
Otherwise, we're stuck where we're at.
All will get back to normal as it always does with time. Covid will be around and will be killing thousands of people a year just like the flu, but this will be "normal" just as it is with the flu.
there was the Spanish flu that killed 50-100mil and everything bounced back from it.
Then we had the swine flu that killed 500k+ and life went back to normal eventually.
By 2021 covid will have transformed in to a regular seasonal flu virus
there will be future pandemics simply due to the massive overpopulation we currently have. It's simply unavoidable. Too many different breeding/ evolving grounds for a virus.
there was the Spanish flu that killed 50-100mil and everything bounced back from it.
Then we had the swine flu that killed 500k+ and life went back to normal eventually.
By 2021 covid will have transformed in to a regular seasonal flu virus
there will be future pandemics simply due to the massive overpopulation we currently have. It's simply unavoidable. Too many different breeding/ evolving grounds for a virus.
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Social distancing has been proven to work. If we can keep this up until June, the rate of infections will fall. While we're doing that, we have to build up our armory, so to speak. Isolate the infected, scale contact tracing, increasing testing to where 750k-million can get tested a week, increase ICU/Vents/PPE/Masks, increase health care workforce.
Now, if we can see consistent reduction in cases, if hospitals aren't being overrun, and active testing/monitoring of cases is being done, we can move from population wide lockdown to case by case mitigation. Its the difference between locking down the entire forest because of a raging fire everywhere to opening it up and putting out specific fires when they pop up. Schools, businesses can open up. A sense of normalcy can resume. Social Gatherings are still limited. Mask wearing and hand washing are still encouraged, if not legally enforced. Mass testing and tracing is still being done. And if cases shoot back up, be ready to go back to lockdown if need be. Meanwhile work on drugs/treatments/therapies/vaccines keep going.
It'll probably be a combination of these two until a safe vaccine is produced and distributed. We won't, and *can't*, stay inside our houses for 18+ months. Not even experts like Dr. Fauci think that's remotely possible. But its gonna take a huge amount of coordination at the state and federal level to control future spread:
Now, if we can see consistent reduction in cases, if hospitals aren't being overrun, and active testing/monitoring of cases is being done, we can move from population wide lockdown to case by case mitigation. Its the difference between locking down the entire forest because of a raging fire everywhere to opening it up and putting out specific fires when they pop up. Schools, businesses can open up. A sense of normalcy can resume. Social Gatherings are still limited. Mask wearing and hand washing are still encouraged, if not legally enforced. Mass testing and tracing is still being done. And if cases shoot back up, be ready to go back to lockdown if need be. Meanwhile work on drugs/treatments/therapies/vaccines keep going.
It'll probably be a combination of these two until a safe vaccine is produced and distributed. We won't, and *can't*, stay inside our houses for 18+ months. Not even experts like Dr. Fauci think that's remotely possible. But its gonna take a huge amount of coordination at the state and federal level to control future spread:
- Better data to identify areas of spread and the rate of exposure and immunity in the population;
- Improvements in state and local health care system capabilities, public-health infrastructure for early outbreak identification, case containment, and adequate medical supplies; and
- Therapeutic, prophylactic, and preventive treatments and better-informed medical interventions that give us the tools to protect the most vulnerable people and help rescue those who may become very sick.
When people say we're never going bank to normal, do you just mean that there will be big changes? Or do you mean that isolation and social distancing are going to be permanent forever things. Because we're a week into lockdown here and I already hate it; if there's no light at the end of the tunnel, if I'm never going to see my family and friends again, then I don't think I can keep going.
IMO no. I expect this to continue to a degree until next year, when hopefully a vaccine will appear.
The world will keep spinning. Its gonna be a rough year or two maybe but I would not take eras word for anything. Honestly most people on ERA catastrophize everything.
If we literally never go back to normal the whole species will either starve or die out with no reproduction happening. We cant literally spend the rest of our lives locked in our houses
People saying things will never be the same are underestimating humanity's ability to cope with trauma as well as our tendency to forget the past and fall into our old habits.
society in mid 2021 will look just like it did in mid 2019.
society in mid 2021 will look just like it did in mid 2019.
that's entire nations of people vanishing. Like the entire population of the USA, twice.
How would that even be possible? We'd have to test every single person on the planet.
No one knows tbh. Can we build herd immunity? If so then probably but who knows if/when that'll happen.
I think there could be some big changes after all this is over. Some businesses are going away that might not come back. The physical comic book store for example, and how they operate with publishers, is gonna change big time because they've always been so fragile with Diamond's monopoly on the market. People are gonna see that this business meeting could definitely had just been done in an email. More teleconferences, more masks in mainstream media, more epidemic protocols in place in case something like this springs up again.
I fully expect international passenger travel to be banned until 2021 - not least because airlines are going to be extremely short of customers if they whir back to life before a vaccine is widely available.
More likely, as people have already said, is mass-scale testing of the public, cyclical quarantining of the entire population (contrasted with milder isolation measures on a rolling up-and-down basis) and ongoing quarantining of the at-risk for... well, the foreseeable future.
That all being the case, if you define "normal" as people being at full liberty, able to go on holiday and do as they please domestically, then I don't believe normal is coming back for at least a year. I suspect the Olympics will go ahead in July 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised if those athletes were part of a very exclusive club that's allowed to take an international flight at that time.
I don't want to sound too gloomy, though. I think people will adapt to those cyclical restrictions pretty well once governments around the world have built proper communications strategies, and the idiots who flaunt the rules have been fined enough to start listening.
It almost goes without saying that the tourism, leisure, and hospitality industries are basically done for. Or at least the current players in those industries are.
More likely, as people have already said, is mass-scale testing of the public, cyclical quarantining of the entire population (contrasted with milder isolation measures on a rolling up-and-down basis) and ongoing quarantining of the at-risk for... well, the foreseeable future.
That all being the case, if you define "normal" as people being at full liberty, able to go on holiday and do as they please domestically, then I don't believe normal is coming back for at least a year. I suspect the Olympics will go ahead in July 2021, but I wouldn't be surprised if those athletes were part of a very exclusive club that's allowed to take an international flight at that time.
I don't want to sound too gloomy, though. I think people will adapt to those cyclical restrictions pretty well once governments around the world have built proper communications strategies, and the idiots who flaunt the rules have been fined enough to start listening.
It almost goes without saying that the tourism, leisure, and hospitality industries are basically done for. Or at least the current players in those industries are.
After a vaccine, absolutely. Covid-19 will probably be part of the MMR Bundle for vaccinations everyone(Should) be getting if they can.
It'll take time but it'll go back to relative normal eventually.
It'll take time but it'll go back to relative normal eventually.
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Humanity survived the the1900s with the Great Depression, two world wars, the holocaust, a Cold War, Chinese civil war, Russian civil war, famines and much more.
Humans are though.
Humans are though.
And judging by how weird the symptoms are, a fever isn't even the most prevalent or relevant, so the screening isn't that great of a measure :/
Somewhat. I don't think we will live like this for 12-18 months. If we keep this up for long enough the rates of infection will definitely decline, although orange turd wants to follow a strategy of killing hundreds of thousands.
But if you do it right for long enough you can properly follow the process of testing/tracing people who are infected. We have no need to be locked down for 6 months. Depending on the country this could be as short as a single month. I'm Australian and there is at least some evidence our curve is starting to flatten, though it is still to early to tell.
While a vaccine is unlikely to be developed quickly testing kits will definitely get quicker and more readily available. If you do it at the right time we can quarantine the right people and places.
Don't expect long distance or international travel to be normal though. That definitely won't happen until the vaccine is ready and
But if you do it right for long enough you can properly follow the process of testing/tracing people who are infected. We have no need to be locked down for 6 months. Depending on the country this could be as short as a single month. I'm Australian and there is at least some evidence our curve is starting to flatten, though it is still to early to tell.
While a vaccine is unlikely to be developed quickly testing kits will definitely get quicker and more readily available. If you do it at the right time we can quarantine the right people and places.
Don't expect long distance or international travel to be normal though. That definitely won't happen until the vaccine is ready and
I don't know but I'm already watching tv shows and watching my mind scream "NO DON'T DO IT!!!" when people go to shake hands.
That'll be interesting at the end of the year, I hope airtravel recovers a little quicker than that, if only for selfish reasons because my employment contract in Germany only runs until early November, and then shortly afterwards the UK government would fuck my right to be in the EU for work reasons anyway.
I agree with the international travel probably being a no-go zone until the vaccine is developed and distributed to wide swaths of the population. Airlines are probably gonna be hurting for some time.
I also wonder how big gatherings are gonna go. Like people will probably go back to the bars with the boys or hit the club with their girls, but say the NBA comes back in mid-June, will any fans be there? Are NFL stadiums gon fill back up next season before a vaccine is known? With the switch to region by region monitoring, will Houston be safe for Rockets games with the fans but San Francisco away games against the Warriors be without the fans since hypothetically they get another big Rona breakout in December? Even when the population wide lockdown lifts, there's gonna be a lot of questions on how businesses should proceed. Everybody is entering unprecedented territory.
I also wonder how big gatherings are gonna go. Like people will probably go back to the bars with the boys or hit the club with their girls, but say the NBA comes back in mid-June, will any fans be there? Are NFL stadiums gon fill back up next season before a vaccine is known? With the switch to region by region monitoring, will Houston be safe for Rockets games with the fans but San Francisco away games against the Warriors be without the fans since hypothetically they get another big Rona breakout in December? Even when the population wide lockdown lifts, there's gonna be a lot of questions on how businesses should proceed. Everybody is entering unprecedented territory.
I can tell you I don't plan on going to any sporting events this year. I normally go to several basketball, baseball, and football games every year. In truth, I've already been kinda leery of big gatherings because I live in the US and fear of mass shooting is actually on my mind these days, but now I have to worry about deadly viruses too? No thanks.
last Rockets game I went to early March they were down 30 to the Magic at home. Maybe its for the best I watch their games from my couch so I can turn that shit off lol.
So far, everybody contained this.
If the it gets out of control like it did in some small provinces of Italy - Bergamo for example - 45m deaths ww is credible.
I fear for the USA and India numbers in the coming weeks.
you know what's weird is I still find myself checking ESPN every now and then. Like I have a routine of websites I go to every time i have a browser open, like by habit, and ESPN is one of them. There's no reason for me to go to ESPN right now lol.
All ended. When this virus comes back every year with millions infected, and 20% need hospitalization our socities will change forever.
I regularly check the Ringer and film news websites, until I remember "oh yeah, everything is cancelled and nothing is happening :("
Some will absolutely try to go back to normal but unless there's massive testing, better social distancing and at least a viable treament to slow the effects of the virus (not a vaccine), things are going to get worse.
No.
No.