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Can Breath of the Wild 2 Have the Biggest Opening for an Exclusive? (Aka 10mil++)

BotW2 will open at __ (ship+digital)

  • 12mil or more

    Votes: 93 13.8%

  • 11mil

    Votes: 19 2.8%

  • 10mil

    Votes: 107 15.9%

  • 9mil

    Votes: 24 3.6%

  • 8mil

    Votes: 95 14.1%

  • 7mil

    Votes: 64 9.5%

  • 6mil or lower

    Votes: 273 40.4%
  • Total voters
    675
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
First thing is first people, Open Your Eyes!
f5eb247a3bb99ac448682a00335cbaae.gif

Now that you have, let's talk about BotW2 chances of having the biggest opening of all time (that's exclusive). Remember it should have an install base of over 100mil by the time it comes out

if anyone knows games that have sold extremely well during its opening week, etc pls post it and I'll add it to the OP.!

The biggest openings I can find for exclusives are for....

Pokemon Sun and Moon which was 10mil during its first week (ship+digital). For NSW I believe ACNH did over 11.5mil but that was roughly a week and a half of sales.

That said do you believe BotW2 can have the biggest opening of all time for an exclusive? Or is it too optimistic and near impossible? I think it has a shot but only if it is released during holiday period next year. But even without it it'll open up and do gangbusters.

How much do you see BotW2 opening up at (ship+digital)? Post your thoughts!


Edit:


sell-through

{18.11.2016 - 01.01.2017} Pokémon Sun/Pokémon Moon - 12.150.000
Total sales in Japan, U.S., Europe, Australia / includes digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create, NPD (7 weeks of sales)

{07.12.2018 - 06.01.2019} Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 10.**0.000
Total sales in Japan, NA, Europe, Australia / includes bundles and digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create, NPD (5 weeks of sales)

{15.11.2019 - 12.01.2020} Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield - 12.280.000
Total sales in Japan, NA, Europe / includes digital sales / Source: Nintendo (9 weeks of sales)

{20.03.2020 - 26.04.2020} Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 13.410.000
Total sales in Japan, U.S., Europe / includes system bundles and digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create (6 weeks of sales)

PillFencer for adding this

.....
 
Last edited:
Quinton

Quinton

Specialist at TheGamer / Reviewer at RPG Site
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,276
Midgar, With Love
People are crazy if they think this niche game is going to open to more than 500k. This is yet another tragic, if hilarious, example of the Era bubble.

8 million or more let's go
 
cw_sasuke

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,400
Joshwraith said:
Nintendo sequels typically track lower than the original, don't they
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Not really, nor does it matter it in this context. No Nintendo console sold as well as the Switch in it's 5th years and no Zelda game had the legs of BotW, which is still charting 4 years laters.

So comparisons with past systems or sequels are useless, for this Nintendo era.
 

Deleted member 63122

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 16, 2020
9,071
I can see 10 million on its first 3 days. Switch install base will be around 120 million, posible Switch Pro LE, a BOTW2 LE and obviously a huge marketing campaign.
 
LinkStrikesBack

LinkStrikesBack

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
16,364
Joshwraith said:
Nintendo sequels typically track lower than the original, don't they
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...


It will lifetime (who would but a sequel but no the first game?), but the opening could be huge.

It depends a ton on their advertising approach more than anything and I'm not thinking it's a good time to guess now while there is nothing more than two teaser trailers
 

lost7

Member
Feb 20, 2018
2,750
BOTW2 + Switch pro launch would do astronomical numbers, but even without it I wouldn't be surprised if it does 10 mil in the first week. Honestly, I don't think there is a game that has showed better legs than BOTW ever in a very long time
 
Luke88

Luke88

One Winged Slayer
Member
Dec 29, 2018
2,560
Italy
Uhhh, that's astronomical, that's almost 50% of the LTD sales after more than 4 years, of course a sequel is going to be more front loaded, but that feels a bit too frontloaded. how about 10M+ in 2 weeks?
 
Le Dude

Le Dude

Member
May 16, 2018
4,709
USA
I mean, I guess? Depends an awful lot on release circumstances though. I'd be inclined to say it won't.
 
PucePikmin

PucePikmin

Member
Apr 26, 2018
3,754
Doubt it. It will probably sell less than the original BOTW, as it doesn't have the benefit of being a launch title.
 
cw_sasuke

cw_sasuke

Member
Oct 27, 2017
26,400
PucePikmin said:
Doubt it. It will probably sell less than the original BOTW, as it doesn't have the benefit of being a launch title.
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This doesn't even make sense.
The sequel to one of the best games ever is gonna performs worse on launch on a +100m install base compared to launch game ?

It's like you guys missed all the record Switch SW launches that happened post 2017.
 
PillFencer

PillFencer

Banned
Nov 15, 2018
2,431
Tbone5189
sell-through

{18.11.2016 - 01.01.2017} Pokémon Sun/Pokémon Moon - 12.150.000
Total sales in Japan, U.S., Europe, Australia / includes digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create, NPD (7 weeks of sales)

{07.12.2018 - 06.01.2019} Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 10.**0.000
Total sales in Japan, NA, Europe, Australia / includes bundles and digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create, NPD (5 weeks of sales)

{15.11.2019 - 12.01.2020} Pokémon Sword/Pokémon Shield - 12.280.000
Total sales in Japan, NA, Europe / includes digital sales / Source: Nintendo (9 weeks of sales)

{20.03.2020 - 26.04.2020} Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 13.410.000
Total sales in Japan, U.S., Europe / includes system bundles and digital sales / Source: Nintendo, Media Create (6 weeks of sales)
 
LumberPanda

LumberPanda

Member
Feb 3, 2019
6,355
My prediction is that (1) BOTW2 will have a larger opening than BOTW1, but (2) not outsell it in total sales.

(1) is because BOTW1 had such long legs, that the opening doesn't make up that large of a percent of total sales (in comparison to most AAA games). So very likely enough people that got BOTW1 later will pick up the sequel on day one that it blows the opening. On top of that, the Switch version had slightly more than >100% attachment rate at the beginning, the game's opening was pretty much bound by total Switch hardware. That bound is gone now.

(2) BOTW1 still sells so much that I'd say it's nearly impossible to be interested in BOTW2 but not already have BOTW1 (or be destined to buy BOTW1).

To answer the OP though, I need to know how much BOTW1 opened to (Wii U + Switch).
 

m051293

Member
Oct 29, 2017
1,658
Yes for opening weekend.

Pokemon SwSh and Sun/Moon both around 6M. ACNH around 7M, but unconfirmed. BOTW2 will break past either of those. >10M idk for sure, but it'll be a record, unless MK9 launches before BOTW2 (because MK9 will break 10M for sure if its on current Switch install base).
 
GoatLink

GoatLink

Banned
Jun 3, 2021
174
I think that the same thing that happened between TP and SS will happen again(though this time the sequel doesn't need an additional hardware). So I'd say no.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Nah it won't touch Pokemon. Pokemon kinda has an unfair advantage with two versions but I don't see Sun and Moon being topped by Zelda, even BotW 2. 8M seems like a nice optimistic outcome.
 
Stuggernaut

Stuggernaut

Member
Oct 28, 2017
2,902
Seattle, WA, USA
The poll has spoken! (via opinion of course ;P)

I think it will have an "ok" opening... really depends on how it is marketed and maybe some previews. Rabid fans will be all over it, everyone else will wait to see if it is same old same old :)
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
m051293 said:
Yes for opening weekend.

Pokemon SwSh and Sun/Moon both around 6M. ACNH around 7M, but unconfirmed. BOTW2 will break past either of those. >10M idk for sure, but it'll be a record, unless MK9 launches before BOTW2 (because MK9 will break 10M for sure if its on current Switch install base).
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I thought Sun and Moon was confirmed to have a day one shipment of 10m.
 
OP
OP
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Succ-essor
Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
Tiny Chihuahueño said:
I very much doubt BOTW can top Animal Crossing for a number of reasons.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Give Me some, and I'll throw you some counter reasons 😉

Fatmanp said:
Highly doubtful. What is the current record? I assume Halo 3 is still up there.
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halo 3 did around 12mil I think lifetime so I doubt it was anywhere near close to Pokémon 10mil

storres said:
It's eithee Smash Ultimate or Sword and Shield. Although, we do not know the first 3 days or week for Animal Crossing.
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Smash did 12mil right in the first month? Sword and shield I think did under sun and moon first month and a half (but I could be wrong). Have to look it up
 
Arex

Arex

Member
Oct 27, 2017
12,501
Indonesia
It'll reach 10m fast for sure, but I'm not sure it's front loaded enough to reach that in opening week. Probably 6m-7m would be my guess. What did the first one do on its opening week?
 
Ataturk

Ataturk

Alt-Account
Banned
Jun 25, 2021
116
I think it will sell lower than BoTW. A glorified sequel is never outsold original game in history
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
PillFencer said:
Their figures are sell-through.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Ah gotcha. The OP is asking about shipments.

Ataturk said:
I think it will sell lower than BoTW. A glorified sequel is never outsold original game in history
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Considering the install base when it launched I'd find it extremely hard for the sequel to sell less at launch.

That and the fact that reviews and word of mouth heavily carried BotW, and still does to this day. That suggests the sequel will have a bigger opening but probably shorter tail.
 
OP
OP
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

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Member
Mar 25, 2020
4,919
lost7 said:
BOTW2 + Switch pro launch would do astronomical numbers, but even without it I wouldn't be surprised if it does 10 mil in the first week. Honestly, I don't think there is a game that has showed better legs than BOTW ever in a very long time
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Mario Kart 8 deluxe has to be amoung the top (exclusives) but BotW hands down non multiplayer is unheard of. Look at all the games with legs and they all have one thing in common, multiplayer. UC4 and Spider-Man is up there too in terms of single player game legs.
 
Einbroch

Einbroch

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,998
Absolutely not.

It'll have massive legs and sell a shitload, but 10 million opening is...just no.
 

slothrop

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Aug 28, 2019
3,877
USA
No it will do extremely well but it will not outsell botw1. I suppose it will have larger initial sales due to the much larger install base, but it will quickly lose ground
 
Ataturk

Ataturk

Alt-Account
Banned
Jun 25, 2021
116
Skittzo said:
Ah gotcha. The OP is asking about shipments.



Considering the install base when it launched I'd find it extremely hard for the sequel to sell less at launch.
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Install base doesn't mean active people buying games though. People had their Zelda fill in my opinion new one looks barely different so i dont think it will be exciting as botw momentum

That was coming from twilight princess for most people since they ignored skyword sword
 
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