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Can Biden win on election night?

Deleted member 31923

User requested account closure
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Nov 8, 2017
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Trump's plan seems to be declaring himself a winner on election night, then going to the Supreme Court to have mail ballots thrown out before they all can be counted. Florida 2000 part two. He's also counting on DeJoy to slow the mail down and maybe "lose" some ballots on the way (which will be harder now that the spotlight it on him). All this means that Biden's best bet to avoid Trump stealing the election is to win on election night. But is that even possible? Anyone know what the rules are for counting mail ballots in the six key states (PA, MI, AZ, FL, WI, NC, and MI)? Also, how do they know how many mail/absentee ballots are pending before they can declare the winner?
 
YozoraXV

YozoraXV

Member
Oct 30, 2017
2,974
I hope he wins, because I know I won't and lots of people I know won't look at Americans the same way again if Trump wins a second time.
 
Kyuuji

Kyuuji

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Nov 8, 2017
31,981
I thought it was the general consensus it's just that people don't want that thought to dissuade people from voting because you want to be certain and not assume yours isn't included in that consensus. Plus that a wider margin win is much better for any post-election nonsense Trump intends to do.
 

Ecotic

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,408
While we may not know the winner definitively, the statisticians like Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, and so on will probably have a model and running commentary saying whether Biden is looking good based on the returns that we have coming in. Plus, there'll be plenty of exit polls. So, I think by 2 a.m. or so we'll have a good idea if Biden is on track to win or not.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Zelas said:
That's not going to happen. He's already lost his sizable lead. Florida is going to be Florida as always.
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Let's not make any rash statements yet. Florida will be close, it isn't guaranteed either way but it leans Biden right now from what we have seen even if it is like a 60/40 chance.
clevbrowns95 said:
What about Pennsylvania? Seems like Florida and Pennsylvania are ballgame.
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Trump doesn't have a path without Florida.
 
FreezerGeezer

FreezerGeezer

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Oct 25, 2017
1,492
Australia
I hope he does as an outsider (aussie). A terribly selfish part of me kinda hopes Trump does though so my gamble pays off and I get a big ol' pay day! But unfortunately he is a detriment to his country and the globe so fuck him.
 
captive

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,991
Houston
i think so.

i have no empirical evidence, but i think people are over estimating how much people are going to mail in vote. Given the lines we've seen for early voting already, i just think dems aren't going to give him the chance to fuck with the ballots via the USPS or in court.
 
Aaron

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I think we'll know the winner on election night, if not the particulars of the Electoral College.

and it'll be Biden
 
thecouncil

thecouncil

Member
Oct 29, 2017
12,333
if he is ahead on election night, how fast will trump / republicans switch to "it might take days to know who wins for sure"?
 
Dyle

Dyle

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The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
29,903
MI is the only one of those states that doesn't start counting absentee ballots ahead of time. It's unlikely that most of the key states are called on election night but the eventual end results will be pretty clear and will make it difficult for Trump and friends to dispute it
 
PeskyToaster

PeskyToaster

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,312
If a state like Pennsylvania or Florida can be called, it's over. Honestly we need to get away from the media "calling" the elections as the official result. The media calls them and we accept them but often the counts are finished up over the week and there's an actual certification process which finalizes the election.
 
FSP

FSP

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,644
London, United Kingdom
Ecotic said:
While we may not know the winner definitively, the statisticians like Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, and so on will probably have a model and running commentary saying whether Biden is looking good based on the returns that we have coming in. Plus, there'll be plenty of exit polls. So, I think by 2 a.m. or so we'll have a good idea if Biden is on track to win or not.
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I'm surprised that there's no equivalent of the UK Exit Poll ("thus spake John Curtice") in US elections, even at the state level. Pennsylvania has less than a fifth of the population of the UK.
 
KNZFive

KNZFive

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Oct 28, 2017
2,756
clevbrowns95 said:
What about Pennsylvania? Seems like Florida and Pennsylvania are ballgame.
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Yeah, Pennsylvania is even more important than Florida in this election, but Pennsylvania doesn't start counting their votes as early as Florida. So it might be several days before the final vote count in PA is known, especially now that they (rightfully) extended the deadline for when mail-in ballots can arrived and be counted by 3 days after the election.

I just meant that Biden definitively winning Florida means we would know on Election Night that he has essentially won it all. Based on what I've read, it looks extremely unlikely that Pennsylvania gets called for one of the candidates on Election Night.

Edit: However, Florida won't be a definitive win for Biden. Heck, I don't even have a lot of confidence that he will win the state at all. I would love to be surprised though.
 
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Josh5890

Josh5890

I'm Your Favorite Poster's Favorite Poster
The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
23,170
I'm hoping it is wrapped up relatively early, or is at least convincingly enough.
 

Zelas

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,020
Piston said:
Let's not make any rash statements yet. Florida will be close, it isn't guaranteed either way but it leans Biden right now from what we have seen even if it is like a 60/40 chance.

Trump doesn't have a path without Florida.
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platocplx said:
Florida is always close. Obama won it with .9% of the vote in 2012. Dont really look at it As ever being a landslide its always in in play.
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Being close is one thing, "winning big" on election night alone is not going to happen period.
 
T002 Tyrant

T002 Tyrant

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Nov 8, 2018
8,935
Hope for a win, prepare for a lose. That way if Biden wins you'll have plenty of MREs for party snacks, assault rifles to use for celebratory purposes instead of civil war/armed revolution and a new underground bunker that can be used for Zion like sweaty "Trump's finally out" rave instead of for hunkering down.
 
ty_hot

ty_hot

Banned
Dec 14, 2017
7,176
If Florida really is what I hear it is, I wouldn't count on it even if polls indicate the opposite...

Obviously not related but in any Brazilian election the ballots from Florida are ALWAYS the most reactionary possible, 91% for Bolsonaro and previously 91% for Neves (the one senator that suggested killing his own cousin before he could snitch on him for corruption - and yes, he is walking free and is a currently a congressman). I would imagine it is similar for 2nd generation immigrants from other countries that can vote in the US elections.
 

Deleted member 30544

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Nov 3, 2017
5,215
I certainly hope so.

I also hope for Biden and democrats to have a plan to counter all the fuckery that Trump and the Republicans will surely do on election night.
 
Taffy Lewis

Taffy Lewis

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Oct 27, 2017
1,527
clevbrowns95 said:
Anyone know what the rules are for counting mail ballots in the six key states (PA, MI, AZ, FL, WI, NC, and MI)? Also, how do they know how many mail/absentee ballots are pending before they can declare the winner?
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The real results always take weeks to count, and the actual election happens in December. "Declaring a winner" is something the media do before the final result is in. But that doesn't have much of an effect on anything.
 
jdh96

jdh96

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Jan 25, 2020
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I honestly to God hope so, If Biden doesn't win I'm going to sink deeper into despair then i already am.
 
Rag

Rag

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Oct 30, 2017
3,874
The polling shows that we have this. We just can't let up. The only way Trump wins is if he steals it, and the only way he steals it is if we get complacent.
 
Piston

Piston

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Zelas said:
And the tally will be close, not >5% in either direction that would make recount and court gimmicks useless.
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https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Florida:

"Florida state law provides for automatic recounts when the margin of victory for a given office or measure is equal to or less than 0.5 percent of the total votes cast for that office or measure. If the margin of victory is equal to or less than 0.25 percent, a hand recount is ordered (automatic tabulators are otherwise used). The relevant state statutes do not appear to provide for candidate-initiated or voter-initiated recounts. For more information about recount procedures in Florida, see Section 102.166 of the Florida Statutes.[3][4]"
 
Amnixia

Amnixia

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Jan 25, 2018
10,411
People missing the part where a stacked court and shady practices by Republicans to steal the election is shocking

Can Biden win? Yes
Will he win? Probably yes, like if Trump wins fairly America is a lost cause.
Will Trump try to steal the election? 100%

It's going to be interesting to see how this is handled
 
Taffy Lewis

Taffy Lewis

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,527
Tovarishch Nix said:
People missing the part where a stacked court and shady practices by Republicans to steal the election is shocking

Can Biden win? Yes
Will he win? Probably yes, like if Trump wins fairly America is a lost cause.
Will Trump try to steal the election? 100%

It's going to be interesting to see how this is handled
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Already worked in 2000, why not try again.
 
weekev

weekev

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Oct 25, 2017
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The real question is, just how close does Biden need to be at the end of election night to be reasonably assured of victory? Like the latest poll from the Washington Post has Trump at 60% of the on the day votes with Biden at 40% but how many of the early votes will have been counted by then. Essentially what is the magic number for Biden so that our anxiety isnt here on November 4th 2020?
 
Prinz Eugn

Prinz Eugn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,393
Taffy Lewis said:
The real results always take weeks to count, and the actual election happens in December. "Declaring a winner" is something the media do before the final result is in. But that doesn't have much of an effect on anything.
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I can imagine in the bizarro world we live in, Fox News declaring the winner will actually be super important.
 
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