BREXIT |OT4.0| Endgame? No, Endgame! [Up: It's done]

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

You mean Germany and France don't control the EU! or they do so we were too weak to beat them so we leave the EU and beat them solo! but please help us Germany and France!

I imagine Brexit voters will always have their comfort blanket of immigration, playing the victim, blaming, see above and more. The media will make sure of it and the only way to beat the EU is by letting the Tories do whatever they want.

Psychotext · Dec 11, 2020

Ravensmash said:
Why do these people not realise that we're dealing with a trading bloc and not just individual leaders?

Why do they think we're still living in the shadow of WW2?

They also seem to think that the UK is the "equal" of the largest trading bloc on the planet... so, I mean... maybe they're just not that bright?

mere_immortal · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
They also seem to think that the UK is the "equal" of the largest trading bloc on the planet... so, I mean... maybe they're just not that bright?

This is honestly a big part of it. Not to sound like some edgy 14 year old, but people are ignorant and stupid but speak with confidence. It's dangerous.

DarthMasta · Dec 11, 2020

Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

Which, will also happen in other places, tourism in Portugal has the British as it's biggest customers, it's not going to be great.

I just hope peace in NI holds on.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

FliX said:
I'll have you know that I grew up watching Dad's Army and Allo Allo. It's like I was there. /s

You are going on ze list!

FliX · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

Which, will also happen in other places, tourism in Portugal has the British as it's biggest customers, it's not going to be great.

I don't think anyone expects the UK to leave the first world, but I think it is reasonable to expect/fear the UK moving towards the US-type system of neoliberalism and capitalism on steroids.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

Which, will also happen in other places, tourism in Portugal has the British as it's biggest customers, it's not going to be great.

I just hope peace in NI holds on.

Have you seen the poverty rates?

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

PJV3 said:
You are going on ze list!

Don't tell him your name FliX.

A little part of me just died.

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

FliX said:
I don't think anyone expects the UK to leave the first world, but I think it is reasonable to expect/fear the UK moving towards the US-type system of neoliberalism and capitalism on steroids.

Yeah and if these new right wing news channels gain ground in the downturn and sway people further down the hole, UK could be really shit and it is for far too many people already.

Unclebenny · Dec 11, 2020

FliX said:
I'll have you know that I grew up watching Dad's Army and Allo Allo. It's like I was there. /s

Who was it recently who was claiming if they could live in any time period it would be the great depression and then both world wars? I can't remember if it was an loony MP or an unelected loon.

There's almost nothing you can do when they are that far gone down the nostalgia hole.

IpKaiFung · Dec 11, 2020

FliX said:
I don't think anyone expects the UK to leave the first world, but I think it is reasonable to expect/fear the UK moving towards the US-type system of neoliberalism and capitalism on steroids.

It will definitely get worse for people who dont survive as being part of the rentier economy.

Covid has fucked the productive economy and Brexit will certainly reduce investment in the productive economy. Therefore, less full time jobs, more precarious jobs and more people needing to use benefits.

Ravensmash · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
They also seem to think that the UK is the "equal" of the largest trading bloc on the planet... so, I mean... maybe they're just not that bright?

Speaking of which, I just found myself browsing comments on The Sun of all places because I wanted to see how it was all being spun/what the mood was amongst their readers.

Someone was claiming that we have a Commonwealth of 2.2 billion people and that the EU was tiny compared to us.

I think they were being serious too.

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

India would like a trade deal but want free movement of people. Would love to see the reaction to that from Brexiters.

Funky Papa · Dec 11, 2020

Xando said:
I have a hard time believing a big company like Nissan doesn't have a plan to atleast continue work in the short term before other arangements are up and running.

Maybe Funky Papa can chime in.

I believe it. Kind of. Tooling up a factory for new production models is INSANELY expensive (to the tune of hundreds of millions depending on the car) but the trade deal with Japan did a number on European production of Japanese brands, specially lower volume ones like Nissan.

I could see Nissan eating up temporal losses if tariffs don't make them unsopportable, but that could only happen if they believe a proper post Brexit deal is going to happen very soon after leaving the Union. Otherwise they may drop British production like a bad habit. They win nothing from burning a few millions by keeping production in the UK if they can import the same cars from Japan at a tidy profit.

I've been out from the industry for a while, but my bet is that a bad Brexit with no remedy in sight would end up with Nissan winding down operations. It wouldn't be instantaneous, but production would wither away. And even with a deal in sight, I can't see Sunderland surviving for too long in its current shape. The car industry has tiny margins. If a model can be moved to Japan, it'll be moved.

anamika · Dec 11, 2020

Unclebenny said:
Who was it recently who was claiming if they could live in any time period it would be the great depression and then both world wars? I can't remember if it was an loony MP or an unelected loon.

There's almost nothing you can do when they are that far gone down the nostalgia hole.

Ann Widdecombe? She was recently going on and on about how the Brits lived through world wars and the Blitz and economic depression and came out stronger and greater and they will do once again after Brexit because the British are just that great - completely ignoring of course that during those time periods UK was still looting it's colonies of resources and cheap labor, making colonies pay high taxes, demanding that colonies buy from British industries and destroying the industries of the colonies etc. Many of these colonies left in the sixties and seventies and GB continued enjoying the advantages for quite a while. Well, the only thing GB can do now is bully poorer African nations into bad trade deals.

On that note, I find it hilarious how we get this:
Brexit: Final bid to prevent huge new tariffs ruining African farmers amid allegations of UK 'bullying'

Farmers in Ghana will be hit with huge new tariffs on key exports including bananas and tuna, unless the country agrees to 'roll over' its existing trade deal, from the UK's EU membership, by the end of the month.

So it's Ok for the British to threaten African farmers with tariffs if they don't agree to trade deal on UK terms but the EU is being unreasonable and unfair when it does the same to the UK?

finfinfin · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

"Generally" doesn't mean shit when you've got obscene inequality and plenty of the most deprived areas in (or near, now) Europe.

It's going to fucking suck for most people.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

Funky Papa said:
I believe it. Kind of. Tooling up a factory for new production models is INSANELY expensive (to the tune of hundreds of millions depending on the car) but the trade deal with Japan did a number on European production of Japanese brands, specially lower volume ones like Nissan.

I could see Nissan eating up temporal losses if tariffs don't make them unsopportable, but that could only happen if they believe a proper post Brexit deal is going to happen very soon after leaving the Union. Otherwise they may drop British production like a bad habit. They win nothing from burning a few millions by keeping production in the UK if they can import the same cars from Japan at a tidy profit.

I've been out from the industry for a while, but my bet is that a bad Brexit with no remedy in sight would end up with Nissan winding down operations. It wouldn't be instantaneous, but production would wither away. And even with a deal in sight, I can't see Sunderland surviving for too long in its current shape. The car industry has tiny margins. If a model can be moved to Japan, it'll be moved.

It's not just the tariffs anymore, the logistics and transport issues are going to make it a problem as well.

finfinfin · Dec 11, 2020

anamika said:
Ann Widdecombe? She was recently going on and on about how the Brits lived through world wars and the Blitz and economic depression and came out stronger and greater and they will do once again after Brexit because the British are just that great - completely ignoring of course that during those time periods UK was still looting it's colonies of resources and cheap labor, making colonies pay high taxes, demanding that colonies buy from British industries and destroying the industries of the colonies etc. Many of these colonies left in the sixties and seventies and GB continued enjoying the advantages for quite a while. Well, the only GB can do now is bully poorer African nations into bad trade deals.

Also ignoring that the people who lived through that shit went on to build the EU and the NHS to stop their descendants from having to do it again.

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

People might have a tenner for food at times and if prices even go up a little or a narrowing of goods, less donations etc. the knock on effect is quite horrific for a lot of people and the government throwing a extra 20 quid that basically vanishes or doesn't cover it with price rises, a very big problem.

Funky Papa · Dec 11, 2020

PJV3 said:
It's not just the tariffs anymore, the logistics and transport issues are going to make it a problem as well.

Parts sourcing is a monumental bitch. If just in time chains go poof Sunderland may as well tell its workers and supply partners not to go back to work.

Funky Papa · Dec 11, 2020

Meanwhile...

Joni · Dec 11, 2020

Honda's shutdown last week is a nice showcase of what is going to happen the coming months frequently in British carmakers.

jelly · Dec 11, 2020

Funky Papa said:
Parts sourcing is a monumental bitch. If just in time chains go poof Sunderland may as well tell its workers and supply partners not to go back to work.

Just in time supply chains are going to wreck companies if they are disrupted. It extends well beyond a big company. Hopefully there is some quick patch deal they can do there.

Unclebenny · Dec 11, 2020

anamika said:
Ann Widdecombe? She was recently going on and on about how the Brits lived through world wars and the Blitz and economic depression and came out stronger and greater and they will do once again after Brexit because the British are just that great - completely ignoring of course that during those time periods UK was still looting it's colonies of resources and cheap labor, making colonies pay high taxes, demanding that colonies buy from British industries and destroying the industries of the colonies etc. Many of these colonies left in the sixties and seventies and GB continued enjoying the advantages for quite a while. Well, the only thing GB can do now is bully poorer African nations into bad trade deals.

On that note, I find it hilarious how we get this:
Brexit: Final bid to prevent huge new tariffs ruining African farmers amid allegations of UK 'bullying'

So it's Ok for the British to threaten African farmers with tariffs if they don't agree to trade deal on UK terms but the EU is being unreasonable and unfair when it does the same to the UK?

It wasn't her but she is exactly the kind of stymied goober who would say such a thing.

Oh well, I'm never going to remember, I just remember seeing it the other week on Twitter and logging it in among one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

Yeah, I noticed that African farmers story a while back and it is just emblematic or our approach to all the these negotiations.

We are getting what we want, if you get in our way you are impinging our sovereignty and will be dealt with appropriately.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

Funky Papa said:
Parts sourcing is a monumental bitch. If just in time chains go poof Sunderland may as well tell its workers and supply partners not to go back to work.

Yeah, i can see the swallowing financial hits for longer than having to reinvent 1960s car production warehousing, paperwork etc.

Psychotext · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

Do you really want the honest answer to your question?

I guess first you need to ask yourself how well off you are. Middle class and comfortable? You'll likely be fine.

Working class? Immigrant? Minority? Good luck there chum, you're about to see what peak Tory looks like.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
Do you really want the honest answer to your question?

I guess first you need to ask yourself how well off you are. Middle class and comfortable? You'll likely be fine.

Working class? Immigrant? Minority? Good luck there chum, you're about to see what peak Tory looks like.

We already have some of the poorest areas in the EU that never really recovered from deindustrialisation, now the tories are playing with London's position on the world stage. there's a fair chance it could go very wrong for a lot of comfortable people with all the arrogance on display.

Psychotext · Dec 11, 2020

Absolutely, but it's going to take a decent amount of time for them to be affected. Not least because in the short term the Tories will be too busy fucking workers rights, the NHS and the environment.

DarthMasta · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
Do you really want the honest answer to your question?

I guess first you need to ask yourself how well off you are. Middle class and comfortable? You'll likely be fine.

Working class? Immigrant? Minority? Good luck there chum, you're about to see what peak Tory looks like.

I'm Portuguese living in Portugal, so, sure, I don't have the greatest view on British issues, it's an outsider look, maybe it's more fragile than what it looks like from here.

WhateverItTakes · Dec 11, 2020

PJV3 said:
We already have some of the poorest areas in the EU that never really recovered from deindustrialisation, now the tories are playing with London's position on the world stage. there's a fair chance it could go very wrong for a lot of comfortable people with all the arrogance on display.

And jobs lost and moving has a domino effect on the surrounding economy, without getting started on a weaker pound and more expensive imports and exports. Besides the economic impact, the regressive conservative political climate seems to be heading towards an even more insufferable climate regardless.

DarthMasta said:
I'm Portuguese living in Portugal, so, sure, I don't have the greatest view on British issues, it's an outsider look, maybe it's more fragile than what it looks like from here.

We're a very anti-tory forum so there is a hint of doomposting in all this admittedly but we're led by a government that proudly rides on absolute bullshit and hedges it's bets on weird choices. There's no such signs of anything optimistic ahead, and once you're behind on the global stage it's not like we'll claw our way back.

mael · Dec 11, 2020

Xando said:
Like clockwork

Ok, I'll confess I haven't followed this whole bullshit in a while but.
Trump didn't manage to get Merkel to have a German-US trade deal.
And that moron tried A LOT A LOT

Angela Merkel 'had to tell Donald Trump how EU trade works 11 times'

US President will now reportedly prioritise EU trade deal over post-Brexit agreement with Britain

www.independent.co.uk

What made BoJo think he was gonna convince EU head states to do him a favor they didn't extend to the US?
And the US has military bases in Germany too!
The US has far more leverage over the EU than the UK to try to pull that shit and failed.
Is it normal for UK's leaders to be insane or something?

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
Absolutely, but it's going to take a decent amount of time for them to be affected. Not least because in the short term the Tories will be too busy fucking workers rights, the NHS and the environment.

Yeah, i just sometime think people forget these idiots are making it up as they go along on top of everything else.

TheBlackMarvel · Dec 11, 2020

mael said:
Ok, I'll confess I haven't followed this whole bullshit in a while but.
Trump didn't manage to get Merkel to have a German-US trade deal.
And that moron tried A LOT A LOT

Angela Merkel 'had to tell Donald Trump how EU trade works 11 times'

US President will now reportedly prioritise EU trade deal over post-Brexit agreement with Britain

www.independent.co.uk

What made BoJo think he was gonna convince EU head states to do him a favor they didn't extend to the US?
And the US has military bases in Germany too!
The US has far more leverage over the EU than the UK to try to pull that shit and failed.
Is it normal for UK's leaders to be insane or something?

Psychotext · Dec 11, 2020

WhateverItTakes said:
We're a very anti-tory forum so there is a hint of doomposting in all this admittedly but we're led by a government that proudly rides on absolute bullshit and hedges it's bets on weird choices. There's no such signs of anything optimistic ahead, and once you're behind on the global stage it's not like we'll claw our way back.

Looking back over the last 4 years... how often have we been wrong? lol

Utterly fucking inept, corrupt, useless cunts.

Joni · Dec 11, 2020

Psychotext said:
Looking back over the last 4 years... how often have we been wrong? lol

Utterly fucking inept, corrupt, useless cunts.

Often, they tended to fall deeper than we would ever expect. But they have never done better than our doomposting.
I mean, losing the Ineos Grenadier for instance. Nobody of us saw that coming.

Gernau Morat Gurgeh · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status? I know it's a generalisation, life is hard everywhere, but it's not like we'll be seeing refugees from the British Isles. Life will just suck a little more than it would've had sucked, IMO.

Which, will also happen in other places, tourism in Portugal has the British as it's biggest customers, it's not going to be great.

I just hope peace in NI holds on.

The UK is already one of the most unequal 'developed' societies. Awful poverty rates.

Psychotext said:
Looking back over the last 4 years... how often have we been wrong? lol

Utterly fucking inept, corrupt, useless cunts.

If anything they have been worse than anyone predicted. Even at the time of the fucking stupid referendum no deal was not even considered.

FliX · Dec 11, 2020

Funky Papa said:
Meanwhile...

Good for them, time to move on.

Micael · Dec 11, 2020

jelly said:
People might have a tenner for food at times and if prices even go up a little or a narrowing of goods, less donations etc. the knock on effect is quite horrific for a lot of people and the government throwing a extra 20 quid that basically vanishes or doesn't cover it with price rises, a very big problem.

Feel like it's a good time to post this here (maybe it already was) https://cookingonabootstrap.com/2020/07/30/the-price-of-potatoes-and-the-value-of-compassion/ even a slight increase in food prices is going to screw many of the most vulnerable people. Should be said that break down in trading on the short term is also going to screw the most vulnerable behind just price increases, breakdown of logistics of food can lead to panic buying, which also affects what food is available on shelves, and since people living paycheck to paycheck can't afford to buy food long term, they can easily get even more screwed due to the items available being outside their means.

PJV3 · Dec 11, 2020

Joni said:
Often, they tended to fall deeper than we would ever expect. But they have never done better than our doomposting.
I mean, losing the Ineos Grenadier for instance. Nobody of us saw that coming.

If we're lucky the future will be Northern powerhouse levels of under achievement.

Eoin · Dec 11, 2020

Unclebenny said:
That's exactly why they had Barnier in this position, that way, everyone can refer the UK to Barnier and they don't have to engage with Britain on the side.

It's a weird mistake that the UK keep making. David Davis kept talking about doing that before Brexit when he had no official position, he tried it after Brexit when he was the Brexit secretary, May tried it herself, now Johnson has predictably failed to learn anything from that. There doesn't seem to be a point in deliberately misunderstanding this so this really must be a foundational mistake in UK political thinking.

Psychotext said:
They also seem to think that the UK is the "equal" of the largest trading bloc on the planet... so, I mean... maybe they're just not that bright?

In the specific sense of leadership-level discussions, it would be correct to say that the UK is the sovereign equal to any other nation on the planet.

The problem here isn't really a problem of sovereign inequality, the problem is that the UK is trying to engage with the wrong polity. When it comes to trade, the EU is sovereign and Germany is not. The UK trying to talk to Germany on trade relationships is a bit like Merkel calling up Nicola Sturgeon to talk about setting up a military alliance.

DarthMasta said:
Come on, are people expecting Britain to fall from rich, generally nice place to live status?

This is a good question because I do think there's a lot of exaggeration of exactly how bad things will get post-Brexit in the UK. What's most likely is a few dismal weeks and then a long-term cumulative decline from what would otherwise have happened. There'll still be periods of growth for the UK economy - it'll just be that the economic lows will be lower and the economic highs will also be lower.

For some people, that will be the difference between the UK being a nice place to live or not. There'll always be people just living on the edge of prosperity or on the edge of poverty. Brexit will push some into poverty and it will push others out of prosperity. It won't be huge percentages of society, though that will be of no comfort to the people whose lives get worse.

Ravensmash said:
Someone was claiming that we have a Commonwealth of 2.2 billion people and that the EU was tiny compared to us.

I think they were being serious too.

The idea that the UK turned away from the Commonwealth when it joined the EEC was one of the bigger pre-Brexit myths among Brexiters, who believe(d) that it was a huge trading bloc the UK could return to (and, the myth seemed to assume, take the lead position). It was bad enough that the Secretary-General of the Commonwealth asked for comparisons to stop. There doesn't really seem to be an understanding among Brexit supporters that the institutional footprint of the Commonwealth is tiny compared to the EU - it's just not geared up to be a trade bloc.

Humidex · Dec 11, 2020

Micael said:
Feel like it's a good time to post this here (maybe it already was) https://cookingonabootstrap.com/2020/07/30/the-price-of-potatoes-and-the-value-of-compassion/ even a slight increase in food prices is going to screw many of the most vulnerable people. Should be said that break down in trading on the short term is also going to screw the most vulnerable behind just price increases, breakdown of logistics of food can lead to panic buying, which also affects what food is available on shelves, and since people living paycheck to paycheck can't afford to buy food long term, they can easily get even more screwed due to the items available being outside their means.

Great reminder and a timely one. I fear this will be a big big thing in the next couple of months of 2021.

Unclebenny · Dec 11, 2020

Eoin said:
It's a weird mistake that the UK keep making. David Davis kept talking about doing that before Brexit when he had no official position, he tried it after Brexit when he was the Brexit secretary, May tried it herself, now Johnson has predictably failed to learn anything from that. There doesn't seem to be a point in deliberately misunderstanding this so this really must be a foundational mistake in UK political thinking.

I genuinely can' tell if it is intentional and they are just playing whatever role they think both leave and remain sides expect to see or if they are all actually just quite ignorant.

Eoin said:
The idea that the UK turned away from the Commonwealth when it joined the EEC was one of the bigger pre-Brexit myths among Brexiters, who believe(d) that it was a huge trading bloc the UK could return to (and, the myth seemed to assume, take the lead position). It was bad enough that the Secretary-General of the Commonwealth asked for comparisons to stop. There doesn't really seem to be an understanding among Brexit supporters that the institutional footprint of the Commonwealth is tiny compared to the UK - it's just not geared up to be a trade bloc.

Again, this comes back to the element of Brexit that astounds me the most. The complete inability comprehend distance. We can see Europe from our southern coast. Of course we are going to be forever intertwined with all these other countries. Even before the EU, our fortunes were linked.

You can't replace that with countries on the other side of the world. Time and space have to be eradicated for anyone to believe that.

eonden · Dec 11, 2020

UK is just too used to use the different countries in Europe to grt what they wanted, ever since Napoleonic times trying to maintain control and balance. They also did that from inside the EU, by building factions around them to be able to get more soft power inside the union.
Now, they are out and lost a ton of soft power first with Brexit vote and later with acting as prepotent assholes that could do whatever they wanted (not the best look for most EU nations), and fucking up a small nation in Ireland (not the best look for all small nations who see the need of a union to stand to the bullies).

So now they are in a situation where their softpower in EU is in shambles snd they still think they are the hegemon on that field.

KDR_11k · Dec 11, 2020

Unclebenny said:
We can see Europe from our southern coast.

And what often gets forgotten: The UK has a land border with the EU on Ireland.

Veliladon · Dec 11, 2020

eonden said:
So now they are in a situation where their softpower in EU is in shambles snd they still think they are the hegemon on that field.

The first Tory plan was to literally remake the Sterling trading bloc until Canada, Australia, and NZ all noped the fuck out.

eonden · Dec 11, 2020

Veliladon said:
The first Tory plan was to literally remake the Sterling trading bloc until Canada, Australia, and NZ all noped the fuck out.

I also want to point out that not only is their softpower in EU destroyed, but heavily hit around the world. A combination of UK showing they are as much of a shithole politicswise as most countries (not the perfect stable democracy) for 4 years, breaking international deals with their closest relationship in the EU, and Boris and the tories surprisingly tone deafness about the actual power of current UK beliving they are still the empire where the sun never sets.

Unclebenny · Dec 11, 2020

KDR_11k said:
And what often gets forgotten: The UK has a land border with the EU on Ireland.

Oh god! I forgot Ireland! I'm as bad as them!

DarthMasta · Dec 11, 2020

The UK has a land border with Spain too.

Humidex · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
The UK has a land border with Spain too.

Yeah, about Gibraltar...anyone know what's happening with that bit of rock?

Funky Papa · Dec 11, 2020

DarthMasta said:
The UK has a land border with Spain too.

*chortles in Vox*

Humidex said:
Yeah, about Gibraltar...anyone know what's happening with that bit of rock?

Given the utter uselessness of our current Foreign Affairs Minister, I dare to say Gibraltar may annex us any moment instead of the other way around.

BREXIT |OT4.0| Endgame? No, Endgame! [Up: It's done]

Master of the Reality Stone

Master of the Reality Stone