I'm afraid that "no deal" is the only realistic assumption to have at this point.
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I'm afraid that "no deal" is the only realistic assumption to have at this point.
I don't think the effect will be global. Some of the most affected European countries might suffer slightly, but by and large the deepest and longest-lasting effects will be on the British.
But the bigger difference is still between the deal that we could conceivably have now (unless Boris suffers a concussion and decides to revive a soft Brexit, which the EU accepts) and remaining within the EU, which has by now been "priced in".
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Companies should have been planning on the assumption that no deal would be made. That's been the only planning route that's made sense for the past six months (probably longer, but definitely six months since that's when it was clear that the transition period would not be extended). A company properly prepared for no deal would also be prepared for any realistic deal, since a deal would only eliminate a subset of the obstacles that they'd have faced in the event of no deal.
No, the EU will just revive the contingency plans that were created for the previous no deal cliff-edge, with whatever modifications are needed to account for the current circumstances.
Priced in to a large extent. There'll be additional market movements anyway from jumpy unpredictable human factors. The effect on US stock markets will probably not be very noticeable though.
Honestly any company that wasn't working under that assumption was probably being negligent.
Sadly quite expected for the last few months. I was hoping that after Cummings left there was a real chance of getting a deal, but seems that Johnson just isn't willing to bite that bullet, and rather ride out that Brexiteer wave that got him into office in the first place. What a terrible leader, but then again, that's what the British, or should I say English, have clearly voted for. The adage "every country has the government that it deserves" feels quite applicable.
Hoping UK can get a normal Norway style deal some time in the future, will be a pointless, continued economic hit until they do.
Hoping UK can get a normal Norway style deal some time in the future, will be a pointless, continued economic hit until they do.
I mean yeah, lots of them clearly haven't been planning. That doesn't change that they should have been, though.
(I also realise that the government of the UK haven't done anywhere near as much work to make this easy for businesses as they should have, and that some businesses and industry bodies have been pretty much screaming at them to try to understand that they need to be putting a lot more effort into this than they have, so businesses have faced unnecessary obstacles in their planning. That also doesn't change that they should have been doing some kind of planning anyway though, since for businesses that interacted with the EU there were exactly zero scenarios where they would not have to do their own planning to some extent.)
The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
Frost and Johnson look like they woke up in their clothes after an epic stag night.The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
I'm glad my company has been working under that assumption for the last 4 years. We're well prepared.
Looking forward to next year when the U.K. tries to continue to get a trade deal with the EU but this time from a much weaker position.
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The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
I'd never actually seen a picture of Frost here and my goodness does he ever look like a muppet of the highest order.
This whole thing was so avoidable at so many points and now supermarkets are looking reasonable for stockpiling tinned food and UHT products due to government policy impacts. Bloody insanity.
OP
OP
The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
He's really nailing the "Welcome Break Assistant Manager" look.
Raab on TV dismissing the impact of food price increases and tariffs, also rubbishing claims that Tesco are stockpiling.
How can they keep up this charade when their lies will be exposed in a matter of weeks? You need to be a literal fucking robot to work in the cabinet it seems.
Though some Tory MPs look like they are getting nervous.
How can they keep up this charade when their lies will be exposed in a matter of weeks? You need to be a literal fucking robot to work in the cabinet it seems.
Though some Tory MPs look like they are getting nervous.
"The EU always backs down at the last minute"
Except, of course, for when they don't.
It's going to be months, not weeks.
Its intentional. He also makes sure his hair is fucked up before having photos taken.
Cunt.
Except, of course, for when they don't.
It's going to be months, not weeks.
Its intentional. He also makes sure his hair is fucked up before having photos taken.
Cunt.
Play the fool to distract the country. Be an ultimate cunt behind closed doors
"This time they will surely believe our bluff!"
Meanwhile EU:
"Guess we did well preparing for No Deal since mid year"
Indeed, there is a document that is 1,5 years old showing what countries had been doing already at that moment.
It fucks me off so much, knowing that little prick stands there and ruffles his hair before walking out in front of cameras, telling himself he can do the 80s businessman equivalent of a Jedi mind trick and disarm people, make them focus on his appearance rather than the incompetence or the evil. How little you have to think of people to believe it'll work.
And then it fucking works. I despair.
Absolute shambles.
All of this talk about making a deal that benefits us - ignoring that being in the EU allowed us to do just that whilst having a seat at the table.
I've seen a bit of pushback recently against the second referendum/stop Brexit camp, and how it basically eliminated the prospect of a soft-Brexit.
May's deal may have been crap, but it feels a lot more desirable than what we're staring at now/likely to get at the last minute.
All of this talk about making a deal that benefits us - ignoring that being in the EU allowed us to do just that whilst having a seat at the table.
I've seen a bit of pushback recently against the second referendum/stop Brexit camp, and how it basically eliminated the prospect of a soft-Brexit.
May's deal may have been crap, but it feels a lot more desirable than what we're staring at now/likely to get at the last minute.
That's just the typical "Anyone but our" fault rhetoric from the people that voted this. The people who eliminated the prospect of a soft Brexit are the hardline leavers who pivoted from "we'd be idiots to do anything but soft brexit" to "BREAK ALL TIES, FLOOD THE CHANNEL TUNNEL" the day the referendum result came out.
Had the hardline Brexiters not voted entirely against remaining in the customs union in 2019, Kenneth Clarkes suggestion would have passed and that would have been the plan the country followed.
Nah, it's just an attempt to blame anyone but the cunts that voted for this shit. It's pathetic, and I was particualrly dissapointed to see Owen Jones pushing it in the Guardian the other day.
These were actually points raised by people who appear to be anti-Brexit to be fair.
That was one of the articles I read tbh haha - I thought it was a lot more balanced than some were making out.
Of course, the ultimate blame lies with those who voted for it (or more specifically, those who've propagated it) but isn't there a fair case to say that the discussion surrounding Brexit (as a decided position post-referendum) has been a bit....shit?
We largely seemed to have one side continuing to push for a harder and harder Brexit, and another side determined to stop it - and it felt like a bit of a vacuum appeared.
I mean, look at May's deal. It got rejected by both sides because it was a) delivering Brexit and b) not delivering enough Brexit
i dunno, maybe my reading is off - just such a shambles of 4 years.
I have to admit that I was fully onboard with the idea of a second referendum until that got killed, so not pointing the finger elsewhere tbh.
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I don't think Owen Jones' reading of the situation is particularly off. It was not guaranteed from the moment the referendum was called that we would end up where we are now, and there were several opportunities where both Labour and the Tories could have pushed for a soft Brexit and didn't.
It's the fault of the groups of people who:
1.Campaigned for Leave on false promises and pretenses
2. Voted Leave in the first place
3. Cheered on this whole disaster and pushed harder and harder for more disastrous outcomes to become the "mainstream" position of Brexit
3. Voted for Johnson to win the Conservative Party leadership despite his obvious desire to pursue a hard/no deal option
4. Voted Conservative in the 2019 election and swallowed the lies about an "oven-ready" deal despite people clearly stating to the contrary
5. Continued to express support for no deal throughout the entire transition period
And it's about damn time we let them own it rather than allowing them to point fingers at everyone else
1.Campaigned for Leave on false promises and pretenses
2. Voted Leave in the first place
3. Cheered on this whole disaster and pushed harder and harder for more disastrous outcomes to become the "mainstream" position of Brexit
3. Voted for Johnson to win the Conservative Party leadership despite his obvious desire to pursue a hard/no deal option
4. Voted Conservative in the 2019 election and swallowed the lies about an "oven-ready" deal despite people clearly stating to the contrary
5. Continued to express support for no deal throughout the entire transition period
And it's about damn time we let them own it rather than allowing them to point fingers at everyone else
My concern with basically blaming the current situation on a combination of either bad or ignorant actors (or those who are both) is that it conveniently ignores systemic or environmental issues with our politics that affect all our parties and politicians. It reduces Labour to a quivering, helpless victim of the Brexit saga, rather than an active participant that may have been more well intentioned, but which also might have acted against the country's best interests with a short(er)-term mindset (regardless of whether or not the odds were stacked against it).
Perhaps the commentary here is too vague, but I think the final paragraphs ring true:
Perhaps the commentary here is too vague, but I think the final paragraphs ring true:
The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
This is a sad point but I often heard people say the EU in all their fancy clothes living it up as an excuse to leave like trying to be the best is a fault.
The Mr Burns impressions? :)The body language in this photo speaks volumes.
Not to mention the shabby state of the UK's representatives.
I completely agree with this - I think the single biggest political, social, or economic reform we could undertake as a country would be changing the electoral system away from FPTP towards something more proportional.
We almost certainly would have not had a Brexit referendum, and even if we had and Leave had won we would not be in the current position.
The UK are taking the piss, it's still cake. Raab spouting absolute nonsense like it's 2016/17/18/19. It's not happening. All this garbage about punishing the EU, the media are just echoing this verbatim, it's pathetic. EU like the UK or anyone else wants to trade and export on agreed standards rules, god forbid you asked to follow them! I guess that's too much for the special snowflake Great Britain.
The sheer chutzpah of trying to blame people who opposed this historic fuckup now it's becoming imposible for even brexit diehards to defend it is breathtaking. Like actually awe inspiring. 'Oh no, you told us to stop shitting our bed, so now we had to shit in all the beds and you have to lie in our shit and it's your fault''.
I find this thinking so binary, inasmuch as it assumes that only one party can be to blame, and all blame is absolute.
Yes, I agree that remaining in the EU would still be the best option.
I also think that a soft Brexit is better than a hard Brexit. But if pushing for a referendum in the hopes of remaining in the EU only ends up causing a harder Brexit (as it appears might have been the case here), then of what benefit is it?
Proportional representation and banning foreign media ownership would totally change the landscape in the UK. Alas neither party will ever support either, because both Labour and the Tories feel they benefit from FPTP and would hate to have to "compromise" by forming alliances with the smaller parties, while both parties run scared of the right wing media in this country.
Absolute nonsense.
When it came down to the meaningful votes in 2019, which was the last chance of a "soft" brexit, it was tories who shot all the potential 'softer' options down, while the vast majority of the labour MPs came out in favour of those options.
The situation the country is currently in is 100% the fault of the tory party.
It'll be the ;
- The EU's fault
- Remainers fault
- Immigrants fault
- Left-wing media elite's fault
- Teresa May's fault
- Labours fault
Anyone but;
- Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings, Jacob Rees-Mogg et al
- The Tories
- The Daily Mail, The Times, The Daily Express et al
Absolute nonsense.
When it came down to the meaningful votes in 2019, which was the last chance of a "soft" brexit, it was tories who shot all the potential 'softer' options down, while the vast majority of the labour MPs came out in favour of those options.
The situation the country is currently in is 100% the fault of the tory party.
And yet Labour could have supported May's deal in January 2019. Was that worse than the deal we'd get now? (I'm asking that sincerely.)
Blame can be spread to a lot of places. There was an opportunity to get a deal in place when Parliament took control of the situation, and we were very close to getting something, but the ultra remainers scuppered it in favour of pushing a second referendum to try and reverse the whole thing.
We shouldn't also discount that the People's Vote movement was used to destabilise the leadership of the Labour party at the time, and that said leadership was ineffective at dealing with it.
We had a golden opportunity for a united front when the Vote Leave mob were eating themselves alive from 2017-2019, and all who opposed Brexit from the second referendum campaigners to people who felt a soft Brexit was the best solution, shat the bed in one way or another.
We didn't need to be right here, right now if the hard Brexit opposition had worked together rather than have itself play out as a proxy war to Labour factional in-fighting.
It's not entirely these people's fault, however. Brexit was an incredibly stupid idea in the first place, one sold on lies and nationalistic hubris. But instead of fantasising that the 2016 referendum didn't happen, as many remain ultras did, the opposition should've tried to deal with the reality of the situation rather than undo a democratic vote. That didn't happen, and now we're all paying the price.
Mays 2019 deal wasn't in any sense of the word a softer brexit: that's why it didn't get any labour support and all those softer brexit options I just showed did only a few months later. Not to mention, that was right in the middle of May and co arguing heavily against the Irish backstop to stop the tory party just voting to fuck international law or the problem of the Irish border. (you know, one of the exact problems that's persisted caused by the hard brexit wing of the tory party).
Yes, it was probably better than a no deal, but just giving up and accepting whatever bare scraps they'd tossed the labour party would have been the wrong thing to do and continuing to fight for a better deal was the right thing to do. The tories had their chance at a soft brexit, but it was ride or die for only the hardest brexits for them by 2019.
Sure, no plans. Not secretely been preparing since 2016.
http://brexitlegal.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/EU-No-Deal-Preparations.pdf
When you have to blame another group for not stopping you from fucking up, that group probably isn't the one actually at fault.
